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Weekly jobless claims fall to 233,000, less than expected, in a positive sign for labor market

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Weekly jobless claims fall to 233,000, less than expected, in a positive sign for labor market

Initial claims for unemployment insurance totaled less than expected last week, countering other signs that the labor market is weakening.

First-time filings for jobless benefits came to a seasonally adjusted 233,000 for the week, a decline of 17,000 from the previous week’s upwardly revised level and lower than the Dow Jones estimate for 240,000, the Labor Department said Thursday.

The report comes with Wall Street on edge amid signs that job growth is slowing and even signaling a potential recession on the horizon. Stock market futures, which had been negative earlier, turned sharply positive following the 8:30 a.m. ET release while Treasury yields held higher.

While the top-line number helped allay some fears, the level of continuing claims, which run a week behind, edged up to 1.875 million, the highest since Nov. 27, 2021.

Jobless claims have been trending higher for much of the year, though still remain relatively tame. The recent uptick has been attributed to disruptions from Hurricane Beryl as well as summer shutdowns at auto plants. Michigan and Texas reported the two biggest declines on the week, down 7,401 and 4,814 respectively, according to unadjusted numbers.

The four-week average rose to 240,750, the highest in nearly a year. In the previous week, claims had jumped by 14,000, adding to worries that layoffs are on the rise.

“Claims pulled back in the latest week, adding to evidence that weather and seasonal auto plant shutdowns were responsible for the previous week’s dramatic rise,” said Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. “If you’re looking for additional weakness in the labor market, you’ll need to find it somewhere else.”

Concerns escalated over the state of the labor market following last Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, which showed an increase of just 114,000 in July. At the same time, the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, triggering the so-called Sahm Rule that gauges recessions by measuring changes in the jobless rate.

Markets have been highly volatile since then, with a huge three-day sell-off starting last Thursday that ignited worries of deeper troubles in the U.S. economy.

In turn, traders expect the Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates in September, with some even calling for an emergency intrameeting reduction to counter the recent weakness. Markets are assigning a strong probability of a half percentage point reduction for the first move and a full percentage point cut by the end of the year, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tracker of fed funds futures contracts.

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Economics

What would Robert F. Kennedy junior mean for American health?

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AS IN MOST marriages of convenience, Donald Trump and Robert F. Kennedy junior make unusual bedfellows. One enjoys junk food, hates exercise and loves oil. The other talks of clean food, getting America moving again and wants to eliminate oils of all sorts (from seed oil to Mr Trump’s beloved “liquid gold”). One has called the covid-19 vaccine a “miracle”, the other is a long-term vaccine sceptic. Yet on November 14th Mr Trump announced that Mr Kennedy was his pick for secretary of health and human services (HHS).

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Economics

What would Robert Kennedy junior mean for American health?

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AS IN MOST marriages of convenience, Donald Trump and Robert F. Kennedy junior make unusual bedfellows. One enjoys junk food, hates exercise and loves oil. The other talks of clean food, getting America moving again and wants to eliminate oils of all sorts (from seed oil to Mr Trump’s beloved “liquid gold”). One has called the covid-19 vaccine a “miracle”, the other is a long-term vaccine sceptic. Yet on November 14th Mr Trump announced that Mr Kennedy was his pick for secretary of health and human services (HHS).

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Economics

UK economy ekes out 0.1% growth, below expectations

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Bank of England in the City of London on 6th November 2024 in London, United Kingdom. The City of London is a city, ceremonial county and local government district that contains the primary central business district CBD of London. The City of London is widely referred to simply as the City is also colloquially known as the Square Mile. (photo by Mike Kemp/In Pictures via Getty Images)

Mike Kemp | In Pictures | Getty Images

The U.K. economy expanded by 0.1% in the third quarter of the year, the Office for National Statistics said Friday.

That was below the expectations of economists polled by Reuters who forecast 0.2% gross domestic product growth on the previous three months of the year.

It comes after inflation in the U.K. fell sharply to 1.7% in September, dipping below the Bank of England’s 2% target for the first time since April 2021. The fall in inflation helped pave the way for the central bank to cut rates by 25 basis points on Nov. 7, bringing its key rate to 4.75%.

The Bank of England said last week it expects the Labour Government’s tax-raising budget to boost GDP by 0.75 percentage points in a year’s time. Policymakers also noted that the government’s fiscal plan had led to an increase in their inflation forecasts.

The outcome of the recent U.S. election has fostered much uncertainty about the global economic impact of another term from President-elect Donald Trump. While Trump’s proposed tariffs are expected to be widely inflationary and hit the European economy hard, some analysts have said such measures could provide opportunities for the British economy.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gave little away last week on the bank’s views of Trump’s tariff agenda, but he did reference risks around global fragmentation.

“Let’s wait and see where things get to. I’m not going to prejudge what might happen, what might not happen,” he told reporters during a press briefing.

This is a breaking news story. Please refresh for updates.

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