The Commerzbank building (second from right) in Frankfurt am Main, western Germany, on Sept. 25, 2023.
Kirill Kudryavtsev | Afp | Getty Images
UniCredit‘s move to take a stake in German lender Commerzbank is raising questions on whether a long awaited cross-border merger could spur more acquisitions and shake up the European banking sector.
Last week, UniCredit announced it had taken a 9% stake in Commerzbank, confirming that half of this shareholding was acquired from the government. Berlin has been a major shareholder of Commerzbank since it injected 18.2 billion euros ($20.2 billion) to rescue the lender during the 2008 financial crisis.
UniCredit also expressed an interest in a merger of the two, with the Italian bank’s CEO Andrea Orcel telling Bloomberg TV that “all options are on the table,” citing the possibility that it either takes no further action or buys in the open market. Commerzbank has given a more lukewarm response to the merger proposals.
But analysts have welcomed the move by UniCredit, particularly because a tie-up might spur similar activity in Europe’s banking sector — which is often seen as more fragmented than in the U.S., with regulatory hurdles and legacy issues providing obstacles to mega deals.
Right fit for UniCredit?
So far, the market has responded positively to UniCredit’s move. Commerzbank shares jumped 20% on the day UniCredit’s stake was announced. Shares of the German lender are up around 48% so far this year and added another 3% on Wednesday.
Investors appreciate the geographical overlap between the two banks, the consistency in financials and an assumption that the transaction is “collaborative” in nature, UBS analysts, led by Ignacio Cerezo, said in a research note last week. According to UBS, the ball is now in Commerzbank’s court.
Analysts at Berenberg said in a note last week that a potential merger deal, “should, in theory, have a limited effect on UniCredit’s capital distribution plans.” They said that while there is “strategic merit” in a deal, the immediate financial benefits might be modest for UniCredit, with potential risks from the cross-border deal diminishing some of the benefit.
David Benamou, chief investment officer at Axiom Alternative Investments, hailed Orcel’s decision to take a stake in Commerzbank as a “fantastic move” that makes sense because of the increase in German market share it would grant UniCredit.
As Commerzbank “missed on costs in Q2 [the second quarter], currently it’s at a very low valuation, so the moment [Orcel] stepped in, is probably one of the best moments he could have,” Benamou told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” last week.
When asked how imminent a takeover was in the short term, Benamou suggested it was possible, saying, “they will probably come to it.”
According to Arnaud Journois, senior vice president of European Financial Institution Ratings at Morningstar DBRS, UniCredit is already on its way to becoming a leading bank in Europe.
He told CNBC’s “Street Signs Europe” Wednesday that there was a “double logic” behind UniCredit’s move as it enables the Italian lender to access both the German and Polish markets where Commerzbank currently operates.
“UniCredit has been very active in the past two years, doing a few targeted acquisitions … So this is the next logical step,” Journois said.
UniCredit continues to surprise markets with some stellar quarterly profit beats. It earned 8.6 billion euros last year (up 54% year-on-year), also pleasing investors via share buybacks and dividends.
What does it mean for the sector?
Analysts are hoping that a move by UniCredit will encourage more cross-border consolidation. European officials have been making more and more comments about the need for bigger banks. French President Emmanuel Macron, for example, said in May in an interview with Bloomberg that Europe’s banking sector needs greater consolidation.
“European countries might be partners, but they are still competing sometimes. So, I know that from an EU standpoint — policymaker standpoint — there is appetite for more consolidation to happen. However, we think that there are a few hurdles that make that difficult, especially on the regulatory side,” Journois told CNBC.
A cross-border styled merger between UniCredit and Commerzbank would be more preferential than a domestic merger between Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank, according to Reint Gropp, president of the Hall Institute for Economic Research.
“The German banking structure is long overdue for a consolidation process. Essentially, Germany still has almost half of all banks in the euro zone, that’s significantly more than its share in GDP. So any consolidation process would be welcome now,” Gropp told CNBC’s “Street Signs Europe” on Wednesday.
He noted that Commerzbank has always been a “big candidate for a takeover” in the German banking sector because most of the other banks in the country are savings banks which cannot be taken over by private institutions, or cooperative banks which are also difficult takeover targets.
Filippo Alloatti, head of financials at Federated Hermes, said Deutsche Bank is unlikely to present a strong rival offer for Commerzbank.
With a CET1 ratio of 13.5% compared to its target of 13%, Deutsche Bank is rather “limited.” CET ratios are used to gauge the financial strength of a lender. The German bank also has less excess capital than UniCredit and therefore “cannot really afford” a takeover, Alloatti said.
“We’ve been waiting for this,” Alloatti said, speaking about the potential for further consolidation in the sector. “If they [UniCredit] are successful, then of course, other management teams will study this case,” he said, noting that there was also scope in Italy for domestic consolidation.
Gropp acknowledged that UniCredit’s CEO had made a “very bold move” that caught both the German government and Commerzbank by surprise.
“But maybe we need a bold move to effect any changes at all in the European banking system, which is long overdue,” he said.
What’s next?
In comments reported by Reuters, Commerzbank’s Chief Executive Manfred Knof told reporters on Monday that he would look at any proposals from UniCredit in line with the bank’s obligations to its stakeholders.
Knof informed the bank’s supervisory board last week that he would not seek an extension of his contract which runs until the end of 2025. German newspaper Handelsblatt reported that the board might be considering an earlier change of leadership.
The supervisory board at Commerzbank will meet next week to discuss UniCredit’s stake, people familiar with the matter who preferred to remain anonymous told CNBC. There are no plans to replace Knof as soon as that meeting, the sources added.
– CNBC’s Annette Weisbach, Silvia Amaro and Ruxandra Iordache contributed to this report.
Check out the companies making headlines in after-hours trading: Hims & Hers Health — The telehealth stock fell more than 17%. Hims & Hers reported a gross margin of 77% for the fourth quarter, while analysts polled by StreetAccount expected 78.4%. This overshadowed the company’s top- and bottom-line beats for the quarter. Zoom Communications — Shares of the video-conferencing company fell about 1% after Zoom Communications delivered a revenue outlook that narrowly missed analysts’ expectations. The company is calling for full-year revenue of $4.79 billion to $4.80 billion, while analysts polled by LSEG looked for $4.81 billion. Cleveland-Cliffs — The steel producer pulled back 2% after its fourth-quarter results missed Wall Street’s expectations. Cleveland-Cliffs reported a loss of 92 cents per share on $4.33 billion in revenue. Analysts had penciled in a loss of 61 cents per share and $4.43 billion in revenue for the quarter, per LSEG. Tempus AI — Shares tumbled 7% on the heels of the health tech company’s weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter revenue. Tempus AI reported revenue of $201 million, below the $203 million that analysts surveyed by LSEG were looking for. Losses per share, however, came in narrower than expected for the period. Diamondback Energy — The oil and natural gas stock rose 1% following the company’s strong quarterly results. The company posted adjusted earnings of $3.64 per share on $3.71 billion in revenue for the fourth quarter, above the consensus estimate of $3.35 per share and $3.53 billion in revenue, according to LSEG. Topgolf Callaway Brands — Shares added about 3% after the golf company posted fourth-quarter results that beat estimates. Topgolf reported a loss of 33 cents per share on revenue of $924 million, while analysts polled by LSEG anticipated a loss of 42 cents per share and $885 million in revenue. — CNBC’s Darla Mercado contributed reporting.
Dario Amodei, Anthropic CEO, speaking on CNBC’s Squawk Box outside the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on Jan. 21st, 2025.
Gerry Miller | CNBC
Anthropic is in talks to raise a $3.5 billion funding round, significantly more than the amount previously expected, CNBC has confirmed.
The round would roughly triple the artificial intelligence startup’s valuation to $61.5 billion, according to two sources familiar with the deal, who asked not to be named because the details aren’t public. Lightspeed Ventures is leading the funding, with participation from General Catalyst and others, the sources said.
The financing, which was first reported by the Wall Street Journal, signals continued investor demand for top-tier AI companies, even in the face of potential disruption from China’s DeepSeek. Anthropic is backed by Amazon and Google, and had initially set out to raise $2 billion, according to a source.
Anthropic declined to comment.
The company’s last private market valuation was $18 billion. Amazon has poured $8 billion into the startup.
Anthropic was founded by early OpenAI employees and is the creator of the popular chatbot Claude. Earlier Monday, Anthropic released what it says is it’s “most intelligent AI model yet. Its so-called hybrid model combines an ability to reason — or stopping to think about complex answers — with a traditional model that spits out answers in real time.
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon on Monday said the U.S. government is inefficient and in need of work as the Trump administration terminates thousands of federal employees and works to dismantle agencies including the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.
Dimon was asked by CNBC’s Leslie Picker whether he supported efforts by Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency. He declined to give what he called a “binary” response, but made comments that supported the overall effort.
“The government is inefficient, not very competent, and needs a lot of work,” Dimon told Picker. “It’s not just waste and fraud, its outcomes.”
The Trump administration’s effort to rein in spending and scrutinize federal agencies “needs to be done,” Dimon added.
“Why are we spending the money on these things? Are we getting what we deserve? What should we change?” Dimon said. “It’s not just about the deficit, its about building the right policies and procedures and the government we deserve.”
Dimon said if DOGE overreaches with its cost-cutting efforts or engages in activity that’s not legal, “the courts will stop it.”
“I’m hoping it’s quite successful,” he said.
In the wide-ranging interview, Dimon also addressed his company’s push to have most workers in office five days a week, as well as his views on the Ukraine conflict, tariffs and the U.S. consumer.