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CNBC Fed Survey: 81% of respondents expect first rate cut in September

The Federal Reserve announced Wednesday that it will leave interest rates unchanged.

However, recent signs of economic growth and cooling inflation are paving the way for a widely anticipated September rate cut, which is welcome news for Americans struggling to keep up with sky-high interest charges.

“Consumers should feel pretty good about the U.S. economy,” said Brett House, economics professor at Columbia Business School. “We are continuing to see inflation coming down, growth is moderating and price pressures are continuing to abate.”

Inflation has been a persistent problem since the Covid-19 pandemic when price increases soared to their highest levels in more than 40 years. The Fed responded with a series of interest rate hikes that took its benchmark rate to the highest level in decades.

The spike in interest rates caused most consumer borrowing costs to skyrocket, putting many households under pressure.

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Now, as the central bank sets the stage to lower interest rates for the first time in years when it meets again in September, consumers may see their borrowing costs start come down as well — some are already.

The federal funds rate, which the U.S. central bank sets, is the rate at which banks borrow and lend to one another overnight. Although that’s not the rate consumers pay, the Fed’s moves still affect the borrowing and savings rates they see every day.

“The first cut will not make a meaningful difference to people’s pocketbooks but it will be the beginning of a series of rate cuts at the end the of this year and into next year that will,” House said.

That could bring the the Fed’s benchmark fed funds rate from the current range of 5.25% to 5.50% to below 4% by the end of next year, according to some experts.

From credit cards and mortgage rates to auto loans and student debt, here’s a look at where those monthly interest expenses stand as we move closer to that initial interest rate cut.

Credit cards

Since most credit cards have a variable rate, there’s a direct connection to the Fed’s benchmark. In the wake of the rate hike cycle, the average credit card rate rose from 16.34% in March 2022 to more than 20% today — nearing an all-time high.

At the same time, with households struggling to keep up with the high cost of living, credit card balances are also higher and more cardholders are carrying debt from month to month or falling behind on payments.

A recent report from the Philadelphia Federal Reserve showed credit card delinquencies at an all-time high, according to data going back to 2012. Revolving debt balances also reached a new high even as banks reported tightening credit standards and declining new card originations.

For those paying 20% interest — or more — on a revolving balance, annual percentage rates will start to come down when the Fed cuts rates. But even then they will only ease off extremely high levels, offering little in the way of relief, according to Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.com.

“Rates are not going to fall fast enough to bail you out of a bad situation,” McBride said.

The best move for those with credit card debt is to take matters into their own hands, advised Matt Schulz, chief credit analyst at LendingTree.

“They can do that by getting a 0% balance transfer credit card or a low-interest personal loan or by calling their card issuer and requesting a lower interest rate on a card,” he said. “That works more often that you might think.”

Mortgage rates

While 15- and 30-year mortgage rates are fixed and mostly tied to Treasury yields and the economy, they are partly influenced by the Fed’s policy. Home loan rates have already started to fall, largely due to the prospect of a Fed-induced economic slowdown.

The average rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage is now just below 7%, according to Bankrate.

“If we continue to get good news on things like inflation, [mortgage rates] could continue trending downward,” said Jacob Channel, senior economist at LendingTree. “We shouldn’t expect any gargantuan drops in the immediate future, but we might see rates trending back to their 2024 lows over the coming weeks and months,” he said.

“If all goes really well, we could even end the year with the average rate on a 30-year, fixed mortgage closer to 6% than 6.5% or 7%.”

At first glance, that might not seem significant, Channel added, but “in mortgage land,” a nearly 50 basis-point drop “is nothing to scoff at.”

Auto loans

Auto loans are fixed. However, payments have been getting bigger because the interest rates on new loans are higher, along with rising car prices, resulting in less affordable monthly payments.

The average rate on a five-year new car loan is now just shy of 8%, according to Bankrate.

However, here, “the financing is one variable, and it’s frankly one of the smaller variables,” McBride said. For example, a quarter percentage point reduction in rates on a $35,000, five-year loan is $4 a month, he calculated.

Consumers would benefit more from improving their credit scores, which could pave the way to even better loan terms, McBride said.

Student loans

Federal student loan rates are also fixed, so most borrowers aren’t immediately affected by the Fed’s moves. But undergraduate students who took out direct federal student loans for the 2023-24 academic year are paying 5.50%, up from 4.99% in 2022-23 — and the interest rate on federal direct undergraduate loans for the 2024-2025 academic year is 6.53%, the highest rate in at least a decade.

Private student loans tend to have a variable rate tied to the prime, Treasury bill or another rate index, which means those borrowers are already paying more in interest. How much more, however, varies with the benchmark.

Savings rates

While the central bank has no direct influence on deposit rates, the yields tend to be correlated to changes in the target federal funds rate.

As a result, top-yielding online savings account rates have made significant moves and are now paying as much as 5.5% — well above the rate of inflation, which is a rare win for anyone building up a cash cushion, according to Bankrate’s McBride.

But those rates will fall once the Fed lowers its benchmark, he added. “If you’ve been considering a certificate of deposit, now is the time to lock it in,” McBride said. “Those yields will not get better, so there is no advantage to waiting.”

Currently, a top-yielding one-year CD pays more than 5.3%, as good as a high-yield savings account.

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Social Security checks may be smaller for some as garnishments begin

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T-studios2 | E+ | Getty Images

Some Social Security beneficiaries may find their June check is smaller: Starting this month, a share of people’s benefits can be garnished if they’ve defaulted on their student loans.

The Trump administration announced on April 21 that the U.S. Department of Education would resume collection activity on the country’s $1.6 trillion student loan portfolio. For nearly half a decade, the government did not go after those who’d fallen behind as part of Covid-era policies.

More than 450,000 federal student loan borrowers age 62 and older are in default on their federal student loans and likely to be receiving Social Security benefits, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau found.

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Depending on details like their birth date and when they began receiving benefits, their monthly Social Security check may arrive June 3, 11, 18 or 25, according to the Social Security Administration.

Many Social Security recipients rely on those checks for most, if not all, of their income. So people who are facing a smaller federal benefit as a result of garnishment are likely in a panic, said Nancy Nierman, assistant director of the Education Debt Consumer Assistance Program in New York.

But, Nierman said, “the good news is there are multiple options for borrowers to stop those payment offsets.”

Here’s what you need to know if you’re at risk of a smaller benefit.

How to challenge the garnishment

Federal student borrowers should have received at least a 30-day warning before their Social Security benefit is offset, said higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz.

That notice should include information on whom to contact in order to challenge the collection activity, Kantrowitz said. (The alert was likely sent to your last known address, so borrowers should make sure their loan servicer has their correct contact information.)

You may be able to prevent or stop the offset if you can prove a financial hardship or have a pending student loan discharge, Kantrowitz added.

With that in mind, your next step may be pursuing a discharge with your student loan servicer. That’s more likely in circumstances where you have significant health challenges.

“If they are sick or disabled, they can file for a Total & Permanent Disability discharge,” Nierman added.

Borrowers may qualify for a TPD discharge if they suffer from a mental or physical disability that is severe and permanent and prevents them from working. Proof of the disability can come from a doctor, the Social Security Administration or the Department of Veterans Affairs.

Get current on your loans

Another route to stop the offset of Social Security benefits is getting current on the loans, said Betsy Mayotte, president of The Institute of Student Loan Advisors, a nonprofit.

You can contact the government’s Default Resolution Group and pursue several different avenues to get out of default, including enrolling in an income-driven repayment plan.

“If Social Security is their only income, their payment under those plans would likely be zero,” Mayotte said.

Student loan default collection restarting

Offset is limited to 15%

Social Security recipients can typically see up to 15% of their monthly benefit reduced to pay back their defaulted student debt, but beneficiaries need to be left with at least $750 a month, experts said.

The offset cap is the same “regardless of the type of benefit,” including retirement and disability payments, said Kantrowitz.

The 15% offset is calculated from your total benefit amount before any deductions, such as your Medicare premium, Kantrowitz said.

When Social Security benefit isn’t enough

Many retirees worry about meeting their bills on a fixed income — with or without facing garnishment, experts said.

Utilizing other relief options may help stretch your funds while you work on stopping the offset to your Social Security benefits.

For example, there are a number of charitable organizations that assist seniors with their health-care costs. At Copays.org you can apply for funds to put toward copays, premiums, deductibles and over-the-counter medications.

The National Patient Advocate Foundation has a financial resource directory in which you can search for local aid for everything from dental care to end-of-life services.

Many older people aren’t taking advantage of all the food assistance available to them, experts say. A 2015 study, for instance, found that less than half of eligible seniors participated in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP.

The extra money can go a long way for retirees on a fixed income, though. The maximum benefit a month for a household of one is $292Grocery storesonline retailers and farmers markets accept the funds.

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How Trump ‘big beautiful’ tax bill could change in the Senate

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Staff members remove a sign following a press conference after the House passage of the tax and spending bill, at the U.S. Capitol on May 22, 2025 in Washington, DC.

Kevin Dietsch | Getty Images

House Republicans passed a multi-trillion-dollar tax and spending package after months of debate, which included many of President Donald Trump‘s priorities. 

Now, policy experts are bracing for Senate changes as GOP lawmakers aim to finalize the “big bill” by the Fourth of July.

If enacted as currently drafted, the House’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” would make permanent Trump’s 2017 tax cuts, while adding new tax breaks for tip income, overtime pay and older Americans, among other provisions.

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The House bill also approved historic spending cuts to programs for low-income families, including Medicaid health coverage and SNAP, formerly known as food stamps.

“Overall, the [Senate] bill is not going to be that much different,” said Howard Gleckman, senior fellow at the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center.

But there will be “a lot of debate” about the Medicaid provision, as well as other changes, he said.

Here are some other issues to watch during negotiations, policy experts say.

Fiscal hawks could ‘stop the process’

With control of Congress, Republicans are using a process called “budget reconciliation,” which bypasses the Senate filibuster and only needs a simple majority vote to clear the upper chamber.

But some GOP senators have cost concerns about the House-approved bill.

“We have enough to stop the process until the president gets serious about spending reduction and reducing the deficit,” Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., said last week on CNN’s ‘State of the Union.’

An earlier version of the House package could raise the deficit by an estimated $3.8 trillion over the next decade, according to the Congressional Budget Office. However, the agency hasn’t released an updated score to reflect the bill’s last-minute changes.

Other cost estimates for the House-passed reconciliation bill have ranged between $2 to $3 trillion over 10 years.

Under reconciliation, the Senate bill also must follow the “Byrd Rule,” which bans anything unrelated to federal revenue or spending.

After the Senate vote, House lawmakers must approve changes to the bill, which could be tricky with a slim Republican majority.

“That’s where the fight is really going to happen,” Gleckman said.

A lower ‘SALT’ deduction limit

One sticking point during the House debate was the current $10,000 limit on the federal deduction for state and local taxes, known as “SALT,” which is scheduled to sunset after 2025.

Enacted by Trump via the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, or TCJA, of 2017, the $10,000 cap has been a key issue for certain lawmakers in high-tax states like New York, New Jersey and California.

Before TCJA, filers who itemized tax breaks could claim an unlimited deduction on state and local income taxes, along with property taxes. But the so-called alternative minimum tax reduced the benefit for some higher earners.

After lengthy debate, House Republicans approved a $40,000 SALT limit. If enacted, the higher cap would apply to 2025 and phase out for incomes over $500,000.

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But the SALT limit is likely to be lower than $40,000 after Senate negotiations, experts say.

Staying closer to the current $10,000 cap “seems like a very natural place to start,” but the final number could be higher, said Alex Muresianu, senior policy analyst at the Tax Foundation.

Child tax credit could be more generous

The Senate could also expand the child tax credit further, policy experts say.

If enacted in its current form, the House bill would make permanent the maximum $2,000 credit passed via the TCJA, which will otherwise revert to $1,000 after 2025.

The House measure would also make the highest child tax credit $2,500 from 2025 through 2028. After that, the credit’s top value would revert to $2,000 and be indexed for inflation.

But some senators, including Josh Hawley, R-Mo., have called for a bigger tax break. Vice President JD Vance also floated a higher child tax credit during the campaign in August.

With the House-approved tax breaks favoring higher earners, “there’s some recognition that they need to do a little more” for families, Gleckman said.

“That’s going to be a fun one to watch,” he said of the upcoming Senate debate.

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How to save on summer travel in 2025

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Klaus Vedfelt | Digitalvision | Getty Images

Earlier this spring, consumers were feeling good about their summer vacation prospects. More people were planning to take a trip compared to last year, and summer travel budgets were up, too, according to a new report from Deloitte.

But just a few weeks later — after President Donald Trump announced widescale tariffs and the stock market dropped precipitously, bubbling up recession fears — some would-be vacationers abruptly scaled back their spending plans, a second round of the survey found.

About 53% of respondents plan to take leisure vacations this summer, up from 48% in 2024, according to a new report by Deloitte. 

We still see a strong summer travel season, but perhaps with a more frugal approach.

Kate Ferrara

the transportation, hospitality and services sector leader at Deloitte

The report is based on two surveys: one was conducted between March 26 and April 1, 2025, and another between April 7 and April 9. The first survey reached 1,794 travelers and 2,132 non-travelers while the second reached 1,064 travelers and 880 non-travelers.

Initially, Deloitte found, the average summer travel budget was set to grow 21% year over year, to $4,967. In the second round of the survey, travelers expected to spend just 13% more than last year, or about $4,606.

When looking at budgets for their longest trip of the season, respondents initially planned to spend an average $3,987, 13% more than 2024. That anticipated budget declined to $3,471 in the second poll, an increase of less than 1% from a year ago. 

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Deloitte conducted a second poll because the firm noticed “softness” in consumer spending across other areas of their research, said Kate Ferrara, the transportation, hospitality and services sector leader at Deloitte.

“We still see a strong summer travel season, but perhaps with a more frugal approach,” said Ferrara.

Travel costs are down

Broadly, travel costs have declined, which may help travelers looking to stretch their budget. Hotel room rates are down 2.4% from a year ago, according to a recent report by NerdWallet. Rental car costs are also down 2.1% in that same timeframe, while airfares are down 7.9%.

Round-trip domestic airfare for this summer is averaging $265 per ticket, according to the 2025 summer outlook by Hopper, a travel site. That’s down 3% from $274 in 2024 and down 8% since 2019, the lowest level in three years.

Travel costs for international travel are generally down, said Hayley Berg, the lead economist at Hopper. The average round-trip airfare between the U.S. and Europe, the most popular international destination, costs $850 per ticket this summer, down 8% from 2024, Hopper found.

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In spite of slightly lower prices for travel, people are generally spending more due to inflation, and might have less leftover money to spend on non-essential items like travel, said Deloitte’s Ferrara.

‘The root of all of our hacks’

Of those who reduced their summer travel budgets, 34% of respondents plan to cut back on their in-destination spending activity, such as food or paid guided excursions, Deloitte found. About 30% plan to stay with family and friends instead of paying for lodging, and 21% chose to drive instead of flying to their destination.

You can also save money this summer if you can be flexible with things like when you take the time off, your destination, what you do while you’re there and your mode of transportation, experts say.

“The root of all of our hacks for saving this summer is flexibility,” said Berg.

Airfare tends to spike or be higher during federal holiday weekends like the Fourth of July and Labor Day, Hopper found. This year, prices on these weekends will be about 34% higher compared to other weekends.

Instead of flying in the middle of the summer, consider delaying trips toward the end of the season, in late August or even early September, Berg said. Both price and travel demand will typically drop off by then as the new school year starts and employees go back to regular work schedules, she said.

What’s more, flying in the middle of the week can help save as much as 20% on airfare, per the site’s report.

Traveling on a Tuesday or Wednesday can also help vacationers save about $67 on a round trip domestic flight this summer, Hopper found. That flexibility can help travelers save over $100 on international trips to Europe or Asia. 

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