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What to expect ahead of Federal Reserve’s first rate cut in years

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Powers: The Fed is going to gradually cut rates, guiding the economy into a soft landing

Recent signs of cooling inflation are paving the way for the Federal Reserve to cut rates when it meets next week, which is welcome news for Americans struggling to keep up with the elevated cost of living and sky-high interest charges.

“Consumers should feel good about [an interest rate reduction] but it’s not going to deliver sizeable immediate relief,” said Brett House, economics professor at Columbia Business School.

Inflation has been a persistent problem since the Covid-19 pandemic, when price increases soared to their highest levels in more than 40 years. The central bank responded with a series of interest rate hikes that took its benchmark rate to the highest level in decades.

The spike in interest rates caused most consumer borrowing costs to skyrocket, putting many households under pressure.

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“The cumulative progress on inflation — evidenced by the CPI now at 2.5% after having peaked at 9% in mid-2022 — has given the Federal Reserve the green light to begin cutting interest rates at next week’s meeting,” said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.com, referring to the consumer price index, a broad measure of goods and services costs across the U.S. economy.

However, the impact from the first rate cut, expected to be a quarter percentage point, “is very minimal,” McBride said.

“What borrowers can be optimistic about is that we will see a series of rate cuts that cumulatively will have a meaningful impact on borrowing costs, but it will take time,” he said. “One rate cut is not going to be a panacea.”

Markets are pricing in a 100% probability that the Fed will start lowering rates when it meets Sept. 17-18, with the potential for more aggressive moves later in the year, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch measure.

That could bring the the Fed’s benchmark fed funds rate from the current range of 5.25% to 5.50% to below 4% by the end of next year, according to some experts.

The federal funds rate, which the U.S. central bank sets, is the rate at which banks borrow and lend to one another overnight. Although that’s not the rate consumers pay, the Fed’s moves still affect the borrowing and savings rates they see every day.

Everything from credit cards to car loans and mortgages will be impacted once the Fed starts trimming its benchmark. Here’s a breakdown of what to expect:

Credit cards

Since most credit cards have a variable rate, there’s a direct connection to the Fed’s benchmark. In the wake of the rate hike cycle, the average credit card rate rose from 16.34% in March 2022 to more than 20% today — near an all-time high.

For those paying 20% interest — or more — on a revolving balance, annual percentage rates will start to come down when the Fed cuts rates. But even then they will only ease off extremely high levels, according to Bankrate’s McBride.

“The Fed has to do a lot of rate cutting just to get to 19%, and that’s still significantly higher than where we were just three years ago,” McBride said.

The best move for those with credit card debt is to switch to a 0% balance transfer credit card and aggressively pay down the balance, he said. “Rates won’t fall fast enough to bail you out.”

Mortgage rates

While 15- and 30-year mortgage rates are fixed and mostly tied to Treasury yields and the economy, they are partly influenced by the Fed’s policy. Home loan rates have already started to fall, largely due to the prospect of a Fed-induced economic slowdown.

As of Sept. 11, the average rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage was around 6.3%, nearly a full percentage point drop from where rates stood in May, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

But even though mortgage rates are falling, home prices remain at or near record highs in many areas, according to Jacob Channel, senior economist at LendingTree.

“This cut isn’t going to totally reshape the economy, and it’s not going to make doing things like buying a house or paying off debt orders of magnitude easier,” he said.

Auto loans

“Auto loan rates will head lower, too, but you shouldn’t expect the blocking and tackling around car shopping to change anytime soon,” said Matt Schulz, chief credit analyst at LendingTree. 

The average rate on a five-year new car loan is now around 7.7%, according to Bankrate.

While anyone planning to finance a new car could benefit from lower rates to come, the Fed’s next move will not have any material effect on what you get, said Bankrate’s McBride. “Nobody is upgrading from a compact to an SUV on a quarter-point rate cut.” The quarter percentage point difference on a $35,000 loan is about $4 a month, he said.

Consumers would benefit more from improving their credit scores, which could pave the way to even better loan terms, McBride said.

Student loans

Federal student loan rates are also fixed, so most borrowers won’t be immediately affected by a rate cut. However, if you have a private loan, those loans may be fixed or have a variable rate tied to the T-bill or other rates, which means once the Fed starts cutting interest rates, the rates on those private student loans will come down as well.

Eventually, borrowers with existing variable-rate private student loans may also be able to refinance into a less expensive fixed-rate loan, according to higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz. 

However, refinancing a federal loan into a private student loan will forgo the safety nets that come with federal loans, he said, “such as deferments, forbearances, income-driven repayment and loan forgiveness and discharge options.” Additionally, extending the term of the loan means you ultimately will pay more interest on the balance.

Savings rates

While the central bank has no direct influence on deposit rates, the yields tend to be correlated to changes in the target federal funds rate.

As a result of the Fed’s string of rate hikes in recent years, top-yielding online savings account rates have made significant moves and are now paying well over 5%, with no minimum deposit, according to Bankrate’s McBride.

With rate cuts on the horizon, those “deposit rates will come down,” he said. “But the important thing is, what is your return relative to inflation — and that is the good news. You are still earning a return that’s ahead of inflation, as long as you have your money in the right place.”

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Student loan borrowers brace for wage garnishment

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US Secretary of Education Linda McMahon attends the International Women of Courage Awards Ceremony at the State Department in Washington, DC, on April 1, 2025.

Brendan Smialowski | Afp | Getty Images

Jason Collier, a special education teacher in Virginia, often needs to wait until payday to fill up the gas tank of his car — and in the meantime hopes he doesn’t run out.

“Money is tight when you’re a teacher,” Collier, 46, said.

Now he’s afraid that the U.S. Department of Education will soon garnish up to 15% of his wages because he’s behind on his student debt payments. Collier said he hasn’t been able to meet his monthly bill for years, while juggling the expenses of raising two children and medical expenses from a cancer diagnosis.

If his paycheck is garnished, “it would just be more of a pinch,” Collier said. “If I need a car repair, or something comes up, I might not be able to do those things.”

The consequences are punitive and sometimes tragic.

James Kvaal

former Education Dept. undersecretary

After a half-decade pause of collection activity on federal student loans, the Trump administration announced on April 21 that it would once again seize defaulted borrowers’ federal tax refunds, paychecks and Social Security benefits.

More than 5 million student loan borrowers are currently in default, and that total could swell to roughly 10 million borrowers within a few months, according to the Education Department.

The Biden administration focused on extending relief measures to struggling borrowers in the wake of the Covid pandemic and helping them to get current. The Trump administration’s aggressive collection activity is a sharp turn away from that strategy.

“Borrowers should pay back the debts they take on,” said U.S. Secretary of Education Linda McMahon in a video posted on X on April 22.

Student loan default collection restarting

More than 42 million Americans hold student loans, and collectively, outstanding federal education debt exceeds $1.6 trillion. The Education Department can garnish up to 15% of defaulted borrowers’ disposable income and federal benefits, as well as their entire federal tax refunds.

“In an environment where the cost of living remains stubbornly high, this kind of withholding from your income can pose real problems when trying to make ends meet, and force people into choosing between vital expenses,” said Nancy Nierman, assistant director of the Education Debt Consumer Assistance Program in New York.

Most people who default on their student loans “truly cannot afford to pay them,” James Kvaal, who served as U.S. undersecretary of education for former President Joe Biden, said in an April interview with CNBC.

“The consequences are punitive and sometimes tragic,” Kvaal said.

A retiree who can’t go home now

Marceline Paul and her grandson

Courtesy: Marceline Paul

Marceline Paul is homesick.

But if the Trump administration begins garnishing her Social Security benefit next month, there’s no way she’ll be able to afford a trip back to Trinidad. She moved from there to the United States in the ’70s.

“I need to go home,” said Paul, 68, who worked for decades in the health care industry and retired during the Covid-19 pandemic to take care of her sick mother.

The student debt she had taken on for her daughter was the last thing on her mind during that time, she said: “I couldn’t focus on anything else.”

She felt terrified when she received a recent notice from the Education Dept. that her retirement check could be offset. Nearly all of her income comes from her monthly Social Security benefit of around $2,600. Social Security benefits can generally be reduced by up to 15% to repay student debt in default, so long as beneficiaries are left with at least $750 per month.

“When I saw that email, it made me sick to my stomach,” Paul said.

Already on a tight budget in retirement, the garnishment will force her to cut back on her everyday expenses, skip necessary repairs on her house in Maryland and forgo traveling to her home country.

“I don’t know the last time I had a vacation,” she said. “I’ve paid into the system and I should be able to retire.”

More than 450,000 borrowers ages 62 and older in default on their federal student loans and likely to be receiving Social Security benefits, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau found earlier this year.

Collection activity begins despite chaotic time

But in recent months, the Trump administration has terminated around half of the Education Department’s staff, including many of the people who helped assist borrowers.

Now some student loan borrowers report waiting hours on the phone before being able to reach someone about their debt, despite the Trump administration telling borrowers to contact it to get current.

The Education Department did not respond to a request for comment.

Borrowers try and fail to get current on their loans

Kia Brown, who works as a management analyst at the Department of Veterans Affairs, wants to start repaying her student loans again — but she said she’s run into numerous challenges trying to do so.

“The biggest issue I have is the lack of information,” said Brown, 44.

When she signed up for Biden’s SAVE plan, she could afford her monthly student loan bill of $150. But now that plan is blocked and she’s worried she won’t be able to afford her new payment.

She received conflicting information over whether her student loan servicer was Mohela or Navient (millions of people have had their accounts transferred between companies in recent years.) When she tried to reach someone at Navient about her student debt, she was on hold for more than two hours.

Meanwhile, a representative at Mohela couldn’t tell her what her new student loan payment would be, though she was quoted $319 by the company’s automated phone system.

Mohela and Navient did not respond to a request for comment.

Brown is still not sure which company is managing her account.

“The narrative is that people are dodging their payments,” Brown said, but added that she doesn’t think that’s true for many borrowers. “I truly believe many people will be blindsided due to lack of guidance on how to repay.”

If she’s not able to reach someone at the Education Dept. to get current on her payments and her wages are garnished, it’ll be a significant hardship for her family, she said.

“We’re living paycheck to paycheck,” she said. “I’m lucky if I can even put aside $100 for myself.”

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How to avoid delinquency, default, garnishment

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U.S. President Donald Trump talks to reporters aboard Air Force One, en route to Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, on May 15, 2025.

Brian Snyder | Reuters

As the Trump administration ramps up its student loan collection efforts, worried borrowers need to ask themselves a key question: Am I delinquent, or in default? The answer determines your best next steps.

“We’ve had a lot of clients contacting us recently who are extremely stressed and, in some cases panicked, about their loan situation,” said Nancy Nierman, assistant director of the Education Debt Consumer Assistance Program in New York.

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However, some borrowers wrongly believe they’ll be subject to wage garnishments or offsets of their retirement benefits — when in fact they are delinquent but not yet in default, Nierman said.

If you’re delinquent, there are things you can do to avoid default. And even those who are in default and at risk for collections can take steps to avoid such outcomes.

“The federal student loan system does provide several paths for bringing loans out of default,” she said.

Delinquent or in default? Here’s how to tell

Once you are delinquent for 90 days or more, your student loan servicer will report your past due status to the national credit bureaus, which can lead to a drop in your credit score.

The Federal Reserve predicted in March that some people with a student loan delinquency could see their scores fall by as much as 171 points. (Credit scores typically range from 300 to 850, with around 670 and higher considered good.)

Lower credit scores can lead to higher borrowing costs on consumer loans such as mortgages, car loans and credit cards.

But you’re not considered to be in default on your student loans until you haven’t made your scheduled payment in at least 270 days, the Education Department says.

Only borrowers in default face garnishments

The federal government has extraordinary collection powers on its student loans and it can seize borrowers’ tax refundspaychecks and Social Security retirement and disability benefits.

But only those who’ve defaulted on their student loans can face these consequences, experts said.

How to get out of student loan delinquency

How to get out of student loan default

Student loan default collection restarting

You can get out of default on your student loans through rehabilitating or consolidating your debt, Nierman said.

Rehabilitating involves making “nine voluntary, reasonable and affordable monthly payments,” according to the U.S. Department of Education. Those nine payments can be made over “a period of 10 consecutive months,” it said.

Consolidation, meanwhile, may be available to those who “make three consecutive, voluntary, on-time, full monthly payments.” At that point, they can essentially repackage their debt into a new loan.

After you’ve emerged from default, experts also recommend requesting a monthly bill you can afford.

If you don’t know who your loan servicer is, you can find out at Studentaid.gov.

“Explore your options and create a plan for returning your loans back to good standing so you will not be subject to punitive collections activity,” Nierman said.

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Why long-term care costs can be a ‘huge problem’

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Kate_sept2004 | E+ | Getty Images

Long-term care can be costly, extending well beyond $100,000. Yet, financial advisors say many households aren’t prepared to manage the expense.

“People don’t plan for it in advance,” said Carolyn McClanahan, a physician and certified financial planner based in Jacksonville, Florida. “It’s a huge problem.”

Over half, 57%, of Americans who turn 65 today will develop a disability serious enough to require long-term care, according to a 2022 report published by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services and the Urban Institute. Such disabilities might include cognitive or nervous system disorders like dementia, Alzheimer’s or Parkinson’s disease, or complications from a stroke, for example.

The average future cost of long-term care for someone turning 65 today is about $122,400, the HHS-Urban report said.

But some people need care for many years, pushing lifetime costs well into the hundreds of thousands of dollars — a sum “out of reach for many Americans,” report authors Richard Johnson and Judith Dey wrote.

Planning for long-term care: Here's what you need to know

The number of people who need care is expected to swell as the U.S. population ages amid increasing longevity.

“It’s pretty clear [workers] don’t have that amount of savings in retirement, that amount of savings in their checking or savings accounts, and the majority don’t have long-term care insurance,” said Bridget Bearden, a research and development strategist at the Employee Benefit Research Institute.

“So where is the money going to come from?” she added.

Long-term care costs can exceed $100,000

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It seems many households are unaware of the potential costs, either for themselves or their loved ones.

For example, 73% of workers say there’s at least one adult for whom they may need to provide long-term care in the future, according to a new poll by the Employee Benefit Research Institute.

However, just 29% of these future caregivers — who may wind up footing at least part of the future bill —had estimated the future cost of care, EBRI found. Of those who did, 37% thought the price tag would fall below $25,000 a year, the group said.

The EBRI survey polled 2,445 employees from ages 20 to 74 years old in late 2024.

Many types of insurance often don’t cover costs

Maskot | Maskot | Getty Images

Where is the money going to come from?

Bridget Bearden

research and development strategist at the Employee Benefit Research Institute

But Medicare doesn’t cover “custodial” care, when someone needs help with daily activities like bathing, dressing, using the bathroom and eating, McClanahan said. These basic everyday tasks constitute the majority of long-term care needs, according to the HHS-Urban report.

Medicaid is the largest payer of long-term care costs today, Bearden said. Not everyone qualifies, though: Many people who get Medicaid benefits are from lower-income households, EBRI’s Bearden said. To receive benefits for long-term care, households may first have to exhaust a big chunk of their financial assets.

“You basically have to be destitute,” McClanahan said.

Republicans in Washington are weighing cuts to Medicaid as part of a large tax-cut package. If successful, it’d likely be harder for Americans to get Medicaid benefits for long-term care, experts said.

Long-term care insurance considerations

The Good Brigade | Digitalvision | Getty Images

Few households have insurance policies that specifically hedge against long-term care risk: About 7.5 million Americans had some form of long-term care insurance coverage in 2020, according to the Congressional Research Service.

By comparison, more than 4 million baby boomers are expected to retire per year from 2024 to 2027.

Washington state has a public long-term care insurance program for residents, and other states like California, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New York and Pennsylvania are exploring their own.

How senior care became a $600 billion business

Long-term care insurance policies make most sense for people who have a high risk of needing care for a lengthy duration, McClanahan said. That may include those who have a high risk of dementia or have longevity in their family history, she said.

McClanahan recommends opting for a hybrid insurance policy that combines life insurance and a long-term care benefit; traditional stand-alone policies only meant for long-term care are generally expensive, she said.

Be wary of how the policy pays benefits, too, she said.

For example, “reimbursement” policies require the insured to choose from a list of preferred providers and submit receipts for reimbursement, McClanahan said. For some, especially seniors, that may be difficult without assistance, she said.

With “indemnity” policies, which McClanahan recommends, insurers generally write benefit checks as soon as the insured qualifies for assistance, and they can spend the money how they see fit. However, the benefit amount is often lower than reimbursement policies, she said.

How to be proactive about long-term care planning

“The challenge with long-term care costs is they’re unpredictable,” McClanahan said. “You don’t always know when you’ll get sick and need care.”

The biggest mistake McClanahan sees people make relative to long-term care: They don’t think about long-term care needs and logistics, or discuss them with family members, long before needing care.

How families are managing the steep costs of long term seniors care

For example, that may entail considering the following questions, McClanahan said:

  • Do I have family members that will help provide care? Would they offer financial assistance? Do I want to self-insure?
  • What are the financial logistics? For example, who will help pay your bills and make insurance claims?
  • Do I have good advance healthcare directives in place? For example, as I get sicker will I let family continue to keep me alive (which adds to long-term care expenses), or will I move to comfort care and hospice?
  • Do I want to age in place? (This is often a cheaper option if you don’t need 24-hour care, McClanahan said.)
  • If I want to age in place, is my home set up for that? (For example, are there many stairs? Is there a tiny bathroom in which it’s tough to maneuver a walker?) Can I make my home aging-friendly, if it’s not already? Would I be willing to move to a new home or perhaps another state with a lower cost of long-term care?
  • Do I live in a rural area where it may be harder to access long-term care?

Being proactive can help families save money in the long term, since reactive decisions are often “way more expensive,” McClanahan said.

“When you think through it in advance it keeps the decisions way more level-headed,” she said.

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