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What Trump’s historic election victory means for the global economy

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A worker is making textile export orders at a production workshop of a textile enterprise in Binzhou, China, on July 8, 2024.

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Donald Trump‘s election victory over Vice President Kamala Harris marks a historic return to the White House — an extraordinary political comeback that is likely to have seismic ramifications for the global economy.

Speaking to his supporters in Florida early Wednesday, Trump said an “unprecedented and powerful mandate” would usher in “the golden age of America.”

The former president’s litany of campaign pledges include steep tariffs, tax cuts, deregulation and a push to withdraw from key global agreements.

Analysts say it is hard to pin down the extent to which Trump will seek to implement these measures in his second four-year term, but the consequences of any will have clear repercussions across the globe.

Lizzy Galbraith, political economist at asset manager Abrdn, said it remains to be seen exactly what style of presidency investors can expect when Trump returns to the White House.

“Congress has a really big part to play in this,” Galbraith told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Thursday.

Trump's principle tariff focus will be China — not elsewhere, says political economist

“If Trump does have unified control of Congress, as is looking very likely and is what we expect to happen over the next few weeks and days, then he does have greater latitude to implement his tax-cutting agenda, his deregulatory agenda, for example, but we are also likely to see elements of his trade policy sitting alongside that.”

On tariffs, Galbraith said there were currently two schools of thought. Either Trump seeks to use them as a bargaining tool to gain concessions from other parties — or he delivers on his promise and implements them much more broadly.

Trump’s favorite word

Trump has previously described “tariff” as his favorite word, calling it “the most beautiful word in the dictionary.”

In an effort to raise revenues, Trump has suggested he could impose a blanket 20% tariff on all goods imported into the U.S., with a tariff of up to 60% for Chinese products and one as high as 2,000% on vehicles built in Mexico.

For the European Union, meanwhile, Trump has said the 27-nation bloc will pay a “big price” for not buying enough American exports.

Former US President Donald Trump arrives during a “Get Out The Vote” rally in Greensboro, North Carolina, US, on Saturday, March 2, 2024.

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

“Now, I think it is worth pointing out that we do think that in any situation which Trump is using tariffs quite often, his principal focus is going to be on China. And we don’t see Trump’s secondary tariff pledge — that baseline tariff, which would hurt European companies — as being all that feasible,” Galbraith said.

“So, it’s not necessarily our base case that you see something like a baseline tariff applied that would really hurt European goods although there is still a distinct possibility there that specific European products could be affected,” she added.

Analysts have warned that Trump’s plan to impose universal tariffs are highly likely to raise prices for consumers and slow spending.

Europe

Ben May, director of global macro research at Oxford Economics, said the direct impact of Trump 2.0 on economic growth is likely to be limited in the near term, “but masks major implications for trade and the composition of growth, and for financial markets.”

For instance, May said that in a scenario in which the more radical aspects of Trump’s policy agenda are adopted, particularly on tariffs, the impact across the globe will be “very sizable.”

“A key unknown is whether a clean sweep raises the risk that a Trump administration will push through more extreme policy measures, such as larger, less-targeted tariffs,” May said in a research note.

“Uncertainty over Trump’s stance on the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East also adds to the risk of greater instability in both regions, which could take a toll on regional, and even global, growth,” he added.

Europe is seen as a loser of a Trump presidency, Barclays strategist says

The prospect of a second Trump presidency had long been viewed as negative for Europe and the European Union more broadly.

Yet, analysts at Signum Global Advisors said in a research note on Wednesday that “the magnitude of that truth remains underappreciated.”

Indeed, they argued that several factors mean the EU is likely to be “the biggest loser of a second Trump era,” citing trade tensions, an ongoing frustration with key European policy decisions and Trump’s likely desire to double down on America’s advantage at attracting capital relocation.

Asia

Analysts at Macquarie Group said Thursday that, at face value, Trump’s election victory is “bad news for Asia,” particularly China, but the region is “more prepared” than in 2016, when he first moved into the White House.

A cargo ship is sailing towards the docking of a foreign trade container terminal in Qingdao Port, Shandong province, in Qingdao, China, on June 7, 2024.

Costfoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images

“A key tenet of Trump’s campaign was higher tariffs. While well telegraphed, the headwinds that are likely to sweep across Asia, particularly China, should spike volatility and compress multiples as uncertainty prevails,” analyst at Macquarie Group said in a research note.

“A counter-balance to this is a likely acceleration in China stimulus measures,” they added. “The Chinese government has already outlined its ambitions to support economic growth at the 5% level and address property market woes to support domestic consumer confidence.”

Mitchell Reiss, an American diplomat and distinguished fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) think tank, said there are likely to be some differences to the Trump playbook this time round.

A 'lot of opportunities for growth' in defense stocks after Trump's win, RUSI fellow says

“I think that President-elect Trump has said that he would like to increase tariffs on China again until the playing field is level, in his view,” Reiss told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Thursday.

“What was interesting the last time when Trump won was the number of China hawks that staffed his administration. This was a very tough administration in terms of personnel and in terms of their view of how they saw China as an adversary, expansionist in the South China Sea and contrary to American values and friends and allies around the world,” he continued.

“So, I don’t think that that’s going to change. I think that might be mitigated a bit by the economic interaction that we have with China, but I think that it is going to be a complicated relationship going forward.”

Economics

At the state level, democracy in America is fracturing

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The residents of Bristol, Tennessee and Bristol, Virginia share a border, a downtown and even a Nascar speedway. But thanks to the quirks of American federalism, the 27,800 Bristolians who live in the Volunteer State reside in America’s least democratic state, while their 16,800 neighbors to the north live in one of the most democratic.

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Economics

BOI Reporting and the impact of the recent Federal Injunction

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The Corporate Transparency Act (CTA) is a legislative measure designed to enhance financial transparency

The Corporate Transparency Act (CTA) is a legislative measure designed to enhance financial transparency and mitigate risks such as money laundering, terrorist financing, and other illicit financial activities. The CTA aims to close loopholes and create a fairer business environment by requiring certain entities to disclose their beneficial ownership information. However, recent legal developments have temporarily impacted compliance requirements, bringing attention to the act’s ongoing litigation and implementation.

Federal Court Decision and Its Implications

On December 3, 2024, the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Texas issued a preliminary injunction in the case of Texas Top Cop Shop, Inc., et al. v. Garland, et al. (No. 4:24-cv-00478). This injunction temporarily halts the enforcement of the CTA, specifically its beneficial ownership reporting requirements. Additionally, the court order stays all deadlines for compliance.

As a result, reporting companies are currently not obligated to submit beneficial ownership information (BOI) reports to the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN). During the injunction, these entities are also shielded from liability for non-compliance with CTA mandates.

Despite this pause, FinCEN has clarified that companies may still voluntarily submit their BOI reports. This voluntary reporting option remains available for businesses that wish to align with the CTA’s transparency goals.

Overview of the Corporate Transparency Act

The CTA mandates that certain entities provide information about their beneficial owners—individuals who own or control a business. The act is intended to increase transparency, enhance national security, and reduce the anonymity that can facilitate financial crimes.

While the CTA has garnered support for its objectives, it has also faced legal challenges questioning its constitutionality. Courts in different jurisdictions have issued varying rulings, with some upholding the law and others granting temporary injunctions. For example, district courts in Virginia and Oregon have ruled in favor of the Department of the Treasury, asserting the CTA’s alignment with constitutional principles.

Compliance During the Injunction

Currently, the federal injunction exempts businesses from mandatory BOI filing requirements nationwide. This temporary halt will remain in place until further developments, such as a decision by an appellate court or a reversal of the injunction.

In response to the ruling, the Department of Justice, representing the Department of the Treasury, has filed an appeal. While the case proceeds through the legal system, FinCEN has confirmed its compliance with the court order.

Looking Ahead

The legal proceedings surrounding the CTA highlight the evolving nature of financial regulation. As courts continue to deliberate, businesses should monitor updates to remain informed about their obligations. By staying informed and prepared, businesses can effectively manage their compliance responsibilities and contribute to efforts that promote financial integrity and transparency.

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Economics

After a chaotic scramble, Congress strikes a budget deal

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Donald Trump is the most powerful Republican politician in a generation, but the president-elect is still no match for the most nihilistic members of his own party. The budget chaos that unfolded on Capitol Hill as the Christmas break approached is only a preview of the difficult realities Mr Trump will face when he starts to govern next month.

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