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Wholesale inflation rose 0.6% in February

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Wholesale inflation rose 0.6% in February, more than expected

Wholesale prices accelerated at a faster-than-expected pace in February, another reminder that inflation remains a troublesome issue for the U.S. economy.

The producer price index, which measures pipeline costs for raw, intermediate and finished goods, jumped 0.6% on the month, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday. That was higher than the 0.3% forecast from Dow Jones and comes after a 0.3% increase in January.

Excluding food and energy, the core PPI accelerated by 0.3%, compared with the estimate for a 0.2% increase. Another measure that also excludes trade services rose 0.4%, compared with the 0.6% gain in January, and was above the estimate for a 0.2% advance.

On a year-over-year basis, the headline index increased 1.6%, the biggest move since September 2023.

The data contributed to a decline on Wall Street, with the major U.S. stock falling slightly. Treasury yields climbed on the back of the report.

A busy morning for economic data also showed that retail sales rebounded, up 0.6% on the month, according to Commerce Department data that is adjusted seasonally but not for inflation. The increase helped reverse a downwardly revised 1.1% slump in January, but was still below the estimate for a 0.8% rise.

Also, initial filings for unemployment insurance nudged lower to 209,000 last week, a decrease of 1,000 and below the estimate for 218,000, the Labor Department reported. Continuing claims edged higher to 1.81 million, though the previous week’s count was revised sharply lower.

The market focused on the PPI release, which comes two days after the consumer price index, which measures what consumers pay in the marketplace, showed that inflation was slightly higher than anticipated on a year-over-year basis.

The PPI is considered a leading indicator for inflation as it indicates costs early in the supply chain.

The BLS reported that about two-thirds of the rise in the headline PPI came from a 1.2% surge in goods prices, the biggest increase since August 2023. As with the CPI, the acceleration was traced to energy prices, with saw a 4.4% increase in the final demand measure. Gasoline prices jumped 6.8% at the wholesale level.

Services costs increased 0.3%, boosted by a 3.8% surge in traveler accommodation services.

Retail shows rebound

On the retail sales side, the data indicated that consumers kept ahead of CPI inflation, which increased 0.4% on the month, though sales were still sluggish.

Excluding auto, retail sales rose 0.3%, one-tenth of a percentage point below expectations. Motor vehicle parts and dealers saw an increase of 1.6%, second only to the 2.2% gain for building material and garden centers on the month.

Despite slumping prices, gasoline stations reported an increase of 0.9%. Electronics and appliance sales rose 1.5% while miscellaneous store sales climbed 0.6% and restaurants and bars were up 0.4%.

Retail sales posted a 1.5% gain on a year-over-year basis, below the 3.2% increase in the CPI.

Inflation-related data is being watched closely on Wall Street, ahead of the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting starting next Tuesday.

While the central bank is almost certain to hold its benchmark interest rate in place, markets will be looking for clues about the future of monetary policy. Futures pricing is pointing toward the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee to start cutting interest rates in June, with three quarter-percentage point decreases expected this year.

At the meeting, policymakers will update their outlooks for rates, economic growth, inflation and unemployment.

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A protest against America’s TikTok ban is mired in contradiction

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AS A SHUTDOWN looms, TikTok in America has the air of the last day of school. The Brits are saying goodbye to the Americans. Australians are waiting in the wings to replace banished American influencers. And American users are bidding farewell to their fictional Chinese spies—a joke referencing the American government’s accusation that China is using the app (which is owned by ByteDance, a Chinese tech giant) to surveil American citizens.

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Home insurance costs soar as climate events surge, Treasury Dept. says

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Firefighters battle flames during the Eaton Fire in Pasadena, California, U.S., Jan. 7, 2025.

Mario Anzuoni | Reuters

Climate-related natural disasters are driving up insurance costs for homeowners in the most-affected regions, according to a Treasury Department report released Thursday.

In a voluminous study covering 2018-22 and including some data beyond that, the department found that there were 84 disasters costing $1 billion or more, excluding floods, and that they caused a combined $609 billion in damages. Floods are not covered under homeowner policies.

During the period, costs for policies across all categories rose 8.7% faster than the rate of inflation. However, the burden went largely to those living in areas most hit by climate-related events.

For consumers living in the 20% of zip codes with the highest expected annual losses, premiums averaged $2,321, or 82% more than those living in the 20% of lowest-risk zip codes.

“Homeowners insurance is becoming more costly and less accessible for consumers as the costs of climate-related events pose growing challenges to both homeowners and insurers alike,” said Nellie Liang, undersecretary of the Treasury for domestic finance.

The report comes as rescue workers continue to battle raging wildfires in the Los Angeles area. At least 25 people have been killed and 180,000 homeowners have been displaced.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the costs from the fires are still unknown, but noted that the report reflected an ongoing serious problem. During the period studied, there was nearly double the annual total of disasters declared for climate-related events as in the period of 1960-2010 combined.

“Moreover, this [wildfire disaster] does not stand alone as evidence of this impact, with other climate-related events leading to challenges for Americans in finding affordable insurance coverage – from severe storms in the Great Plans to hurricanes in the Southeast,” Yellen said in a statement. “This report identifies alarming trends of rising costs of insurance, all of which threaten the long-term prosperity of American families.”

Both homeowners and insurers in the most-affected areas were paying in other ways as well.

Nonrenewal rates in the highest-risk areas were about 80% higher than those in less-risky areas, while insurers paid average claims of $24,000 in higher-risk areas compared to $19,000 in lowest-risk regions.

In the Southeast, which includes states such as Florida and Louisiana that frequently are slammed by hurricanes, the claim frequency was 20% higher than the national average.

In the Southwest, which includes California, wildfires tore through 3.3 million acres during the time period, with five events causing more than $100 million in damages. The average loss claim was nearly $27,000, or nearly 50% higher than the national average. Nonrenewal rates for insurance were 23.5% higher than the national average.

The Treasury Department released its findings with just three days left in the current administration. Treasury officials said they hope the administration under President-elect Donald Trump uses the report as a springboard for action.

“We certainly are hopeful that our successors stay focused on this issue and continue to produce important research on this issue and think about important and creative ways to address it,” an official said.

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Economics

How bad will the smoke be for Angelenos’ health?

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Where there is fire, there is smoke. For the people of Los Angeles, this will add to the misery. Some are already suffering from burning throats and irritated eyes. Many miles from the wildfires, people are wearing masks; shops are running out. The fires may also cause long-term problems.

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