Connect with us

Economics

Why Kamala Harris’s chances of victory just jumped

Published

on

The Economist’s statistical model of America’s presidential election will be updated six more times before votes are counted. There are few opportunities for candidates to move the dial in an election which has been stubbornly close since Kamala Harris became the Democratic nominee. Today’s update will cheer her supporters: the vice-president’s probability of victory rose by six percentage points, making the race a dead heat.

There are three reasons. One is the volume of new polls—65 were added to our forecast today—giving the model more confidence about small changes. Another is that there is so little time left before the election. Up until now our model has been a forecast, with weeks or months left for candidates to make gains. Many pollsters are now publishing their final surveys of the cycle, so the forecast will soon become a “now-cast”.

Chart: The Economist

The third is that the race is remarkably close, which means that even tiny changes in expected vote shares can yield large shifts in win probabilities. The most influential polls yesterday were concentrated in four states: Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. In those states, Ms Harris’s forecasted vote share rose by an average of 0.4 percentage points (see chart)—a small move that was nonetheless sufficient to increase her chance of victory by an average of six percentage points across the four.

On the surface, the new polls did not look unusually good for Ms Harris. Most showed results that were close to a tie. However, the firms that released surveys yesterday—particularly AtlasIntel, Quantus and Trafalgar—have tended to give Donald Trump better numbers this year than have other pollsters who surveyed the same races at similar times. Our model shifts all poll results to counteract such biases. And on average, these adjustments nudged vote margins in yesterday’s swing-state polls around half a percentage point in Ms Harris’s direction.

Chart: The Economist

Moreover, in recent days the model has been moving towards Mr Trump, and Ms Harris’s average projected vote share (excluding third parties) had fallen below 50% in every swing state besides Michigan. As a result, new polls showing a tied race (like those in Pennsylvania did on average after our adjustments) or even a slim lead for Mr Trump (as did those in North Carolina) still represented an improvement for Ms Harris, compared with the model’s relatively gloomy expectations for her yesterday.

New polls also came out in Arizona and Georgia yesterday with a wide spread of results, ranging from an eight-point lead for Mr Trump to a one-point edge for Ms Harris. However, after our adjustments, the average of these new surveys landed very close to the model’s previous expectation of a two-point lead for Mr Trump in both states. As a result, the forecasts for Arizona and Georgia were unchanged.

Ms Harris’s small gains have brought her back to parity in Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and made her a narrow favourite in Michigan, whereas Mr Trump retains a small but clear edge in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina. The two candidates each won exactly half of our model’s simulations in its latest run. On average, they both wind up with 269 electoral votes—which would leave the House of Representatives to break the tie, presumably in Mr Trump’s favour. However, the model assigns just a 1% chance to an actual electoral-college tie, which would probably require Ms Harris to win Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin while losing Nebraska’s second Congressional district.

The direction or size of polling errors cannot be predicted. But if history is any guide, surveys are likely to underestimate one candidate by a margin that dwarfs the small day-to-day shifts in our model’s average estimates. Any such error would probably deliver a decisive victory to whichever candidate it benefits. Despite the tight polls, our forecast gives a two-in-five chance of the winning candidate receiving more electoral votes than Joe Biden did in 2020 or Mr Trump did in 2016.

The other main source of uncertainty in our model, aside from polling errors, is the time remaining until the election. The forecast works by estimating the candidates’ current positions with the available data, and then simulating movement that could occur each day until November 5th. With just six remaining, there is little movement left to make.

The effect on our forecasted probabilities is counterintuitive. There are few opportunities for big changes in public opinion, meaning polls published now have greater weight. As a result, the forecasted probabilities may change more substantially from day to day than they would earlier in the cycle. The slight movement in Ms Harris’s favour today is harder to reverse in the next six days than it would have been a month ago.

The polls in today’s forecast update were mostly based on interviews conducted a few days ago, so it is hard to judge what, if anything, caused a small uptick in Ms Harris’s standing. Some polls now being published were conducted after Mr Trump’s rally at Madison Square Garden on October 27th—which is now roundly considered to have been a misstep for his campaign—but it is unlikely to be until after the election that we have a clear idea of whether that event moved many voters. It appears as though the final six days of the campaign will go in a similar fashion to the past three months: plenty to talk about, but no decisive leader.

Economics

Republicans have a plan to add trillions of dollars to the national debt

Published

on

MUCH AS he may wish to, Donald Trump cannot govern through imperial decree alone. Congress is drafting legislation to remake the tax system and alter federal spending—something only it can do. On May 12th Republicans unveiled their new plan. Unfortunately it is a mess.

Continue Reading

Economics

CPI inflation April 2025: Rate hits 2.3%

Published

on

Customers line up at the check out booth on April 18, 2025 at a Costco branch in Niantic, Connecticut.

Robert Nickelsberg | Getty Images

Inflation was slightly lower than expected in April as President Donald Trump’s tariffs just began hitting the slowing U.S. economy, according to a Labor Department report Tuesday.

The consumer price index, which measures the costs for a broad range of goods and services, rose a seasonally adjusted 0.2% for the month, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 2.3%, its lowest since February 2021, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said. The monthly reading was in line with the Dow Jones consensus estimate while the 12-month was a bit below the forecast for 2.4%.

Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core CPI also increased 0.2% for the month, while the year-over-year level was 2.8%. The forecast was for 0.3% and 2.8% respectively.

The monthly readings were a bit higher than in March though price increases remain well off their highs of three years ago.

Shelter prices again were the main culprit in pushing up the inflation gauge. The category, which makes about one-third of the index weighting, increased 0.3% in April, accounting for more than half the overall move, according to the BLS.

After posting a 2.4% slide in March, energy prices rebounded, with a 0.7% gain. Food saw a 0.1% decline.

Used vehicle prices saw their second straight drop, down 0.5%, while new vehicles were flat. Apparel costs also were off 0.2% though medical care services increased 0.5%.

Egg prices tumbled, falling 12.7%, though they were still up 49.3% from a year ago.

While the April CPI figures were relatively tame, the Trump tariffs remain a wild card in the inflation picture, depending on where negotiations go between now and the summer.

In his much-awaited “Liberation Day” announcement, Trump slapped 10% duties on all U.S. imports and said he intended to put additional reciprocal tariffs on trading partners. Recently, though, Trump has backed off his position, with the most dramatic development a 90-day stay on aggressive tariffs against China while the two sides enter further negotiations.

Markets expect the president’s softening position to lead to less of a chance of interest rate cuts this year. Traders had been expecting the Federal Reserve to start easing in June, with at least three total reductions likely this year.

Since the China developments, the market has pushed out the first cut to September, with just two likely this year as the central bank feels less pressure to support the economy and as inflation has held above the Fed’s 2% target now for more than four years.

The Fed relies more on the Commerce Department’s inflation gauge for policymaking, though CPI figures into that index. The BLS on Thursday will release its April reading on producer prices, which are seen as more of a leading indicator on inflation.

This is breaking news. Please refresh for updates.

Continue Reading

Economics

German business leaders tell new government: It’s time to deliver

Published

on

TEGERNSEE, GERMANY — Top German business leaders, economists and politicians descended onto a small, picturesque Bavarian town situated next to the iconic Tegernsee lake last week to share their hopes and discuss what’s at stake for the new government.

Buoyed by recent positive market sentiment for Europe’s largest economy, attendees at the summit were united in their call for the new administration to step up and honour campaign promises. Any missteps would likely not be tolerated, with some business leaders warning the government cannot allow itself a “lazy summer.”

Despite rain and low hanging clouds providing a somewhat dreary backdrop to the event, which has been dubbed the “Davos of Germany,” the promise of new beginnings enveloped the summit and the atmosphere was buzzing with excitement for potential changes the newly-appointed Chancellor Friedrich Merz could initiate.

The view across the Tegernsee from the Ludwig Erhard Summit

Sophie Kiderlin, CNBC

Big expectations for the government were commonplace, with concerns about Germany’s struggling economy and recent political turmoil seemingly having faded into the background.

The German DAX index is currently up over 18% since the beginning of this year, frequently hitting record highs in recent months. The German economy has however been in stagnation territory for over two years now, with tensions over economic, fiscal and budget policy in the previous ruling coalition and its eventual breakup continuing to weigh on expectations.

“There are very high hopes now on the new government,” Patrick Trutwein, chief risk officer and chief operating officer at the IKB Deutsche Industriebank AG, said during a panel moderated by CNBC’s Annette Weisbach.

He said he was feeling positive about Germany’s future considering the announcement of the major fiscal package enshrined in Germany’s constitution, as well as further potential reforms ahead and “an economy that’s pretty robust and can build on its own … productivity and competencies.”

Matthias Voelkel, CEO of Boerse Stuttgart Group, was among those feeling hopeful.

“If we look ahead and if they [the new government] do the right thing, I’m optimistic,” he told CNBC.

Audi CEO Gernot Döllner meanwhile said in a fireside chat that he was hopeful that the new government would “send an impulse into the German economy.”

The mood was also upbeat in Germany’s auto sector, which has long been struggling with competition from China, pressures from the transition to electric vehicles and has recently been hit by U.S. tariffs.

“The Germans are back,” Hildegard Müller, president of the German Association of the Automotive Industry, told CNBC’s Weisbach Friday. “We are competitive,” she added.

A talk at the Ludwig Erhard Summit.

Sophie Kiderlin, CNBC

But amid the positive buzz, it was clear that observers are keeping a close eye on the governments every move.

“This new government in Germany cannot allow itself a political lazy summer, I’m sorry, they’ve got to work and they’ve got to work hard,” said Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg, chairman of Spitzberg Partners and former German politician.

Or as Veronika Grimm, member of the German Council of Economic Experts, told CNBC: “A lot lies ahead for the government.”

09 May 2025, Bavaria, Gmund Am Tegernsee: Katherina Reiche (CDU), Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Energy, takes part in the Ludwig Erhard Summit. Representatives from business, politics, science and the media are taking part in the three-day summit. Photo: Sven Hoppe/dpa (Photo by Sven Hoppe/picture alliance via Getty Images)

Germany’s new economy boss has a plan — and it starts with risk, speed and big bets

Overal the message was clear: Germany needs to get its act together.

Alexander Horn, general manager of Eli Lilly‘s Germany arm — Lilly Germany — said the business strongly welcomes the new government’s goals, but won’t tolerate any caveats.

“Specifically we expect that the declarations of intent that are in the coalition agreement will be implemented quickly, speed plays an enormously big role,” he said during a panel, according to a CNBC translation.

Boerse Stuttgart Group’s Voelkel indicated his optimism relied on action from the government, saying he was looking for moves towards “less bureaucracy, less anti-growth regulation, more innovation and particularly strengthening investment.”

'Crypto is going mainstream,' Boerse Stuttgart Group CEO says

The newly minted German government has set itself many of these points as policy goals, making promises to boost the country’s economy, reduce bureaucracy and boost innovation and investment during the election campaign and in its coalition agreement.

“This country needs an economic turnaround. After two years of recessions the previous government had to announce again [a] zero growth year for 2025 and we really have to work on this,” German economy minister Katherina Reiche told CNBC on the sidelines of the summit.

Continue Reading

Trending