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Why new retirees may need to rethink the 4% rule

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A popular retirement strategy known as the 4% rule may need some recalibration for 2025 based on market conditions, according to new research.

The 4% rule helps retirees determine how much money they can withdraw annually from their accounts and be relatively confident they won’t run out of money over a 30-year retirement period.

According to the strategy, retirees tap 4% of their nest egg the first year. For future withdrawals, they adjust the previous year’s dollar figure upward for inflation.

But that “safe” withdrawal rate declined to 3.7% in 2025, from 4% in 2024, due to long-term assumptions in the financial markets, according to Morningstar research.

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Specifically, expectations for stock, bond and cash returns over the next 30 years declined relative to last year, according to Morningstar analysts. This means a portfolio split 50-50 between stocks and bonds would have less growth.

While history shows the 4% rule is a “reasonable starting point,” retirees can generally deviate from the retirement strategy if they’re willing to be flexible with annual spending, said Christine Benz, director of personal finance and retirement planning at Morningstar and a co-author of the new study.

That may mean reducing spending in down markets, for example, she said.

“We caution, the assumptions that underpin [the 4% rule] are incredibly conservative,” Benz said. “The last thing we want to do is scare people or encourage people to underspend.”

How the 4% rule works

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In many ways, drawing down one’s nest egg is harder than growing it.

Pulling out too much money early in one’s retirement years — especially in down markets — generally raises the odds that a saver will run out of money in later years.

There’s also the opposite risk, of being too conservative and living well below one’s means.

The 4% rule aims to guide retirees to relative safety.

Here’s an example of how it works: An investor would withdraw $40,000 from a $1 million portfolio in the first year of retirement. If the cost of living rises 2% that year, the next year’s withdrawal would rise to $40,800. And so on.

Historically — over a period from 1926 to 1993 — the formula has yielded a 90% probability of having money remaining after a three-decade-long retirement, according to Morningstar.

Using the 3.7% rule, the first-year withdrawal on that hypothetical $1 million portfolio falls to $37,000.

That said, there are some downsides to the framework of the 4% rule, according to a 2024 Charles Schwab article by Chris Kawashima, director of financial planning, and Rob Williams, managing director of financial planning, retirement income and wealth management.

For example, it doesn’t include taxes or investment fees, and applies to a “very specific” investment portfolio — a 50-50 stock-bond mix that doesn’t change over time, they wrote.

CNBC Retirement Survey: 44% of workers are 'cautiously optimistic' about reaching retirement goals

It’s also “rigid,” Kawashima and Williams said.

The rule “assumes you never have years where you spend more, or less, than the inflation increase,” they wrote. “This isn’t how most people spend in retirement. Expenses may change from one year to the next, and the amount you spend may change throughout retirement.”

How retirees can tweak the 4% rule

You're Retired! Now What?

Additionally, investors may be able to give themselves a bit of a raise when markets are up significantly in a given year and reduce withdrawals when markets are down, Benz said.

If possible, delaying Social Security claiming to age 70 — thereby increasing monthly payments for life — may be a way for many retirees to boost their financial security, she said. The federal government adds 8% to your benefit payments for each full year you delay claiming Social Security benefits beyond full retirement age, until age 70.

However, this calculus depends on where households get their cash in order to defer the Social Security claiming age. Continuing to live off job income is better, for example, than leaning heavily on an investment portfolio to finance living costs until age 70, Benz said.

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College majors with the best and worst employment prospects

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College commencement is a time of optimism for newly minted graduates. But this year, there’s also more uncertainty about the economy and employment — and grads in some unexpected majors may find they have a leg up.

Majors in nutrition, art history and philosophy all outperformed STEM fields when it comes to employment prospects, according to a recent analysis of labor market outcomes of college graduates by major by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

For computer science and computer engineering, the unemployment rate in those fields was 6.1% and 7.5%, respectively — notably higher than the national average.

By comparison, the unemployment rate for art history majors was 3%, and for nutritional sciences, the unemployment rate was just 0.4%, the New York Fed found. The New York Fed’s report was based on Census data from 2023 and unemployment rates of recent college graduates.

Economics and finance majors also fared worse than those in theology and philosophy when it came to the employment rates for recent college graduates, according to the New York Fed.

Employment prospects are shifting

In general, what you choose to major in has significant implications for your job prospects and future earnings potential.

Majoring in STEM is often touted as the ticket to a well-paying position in good times and bad, and that is mostly true.

In fact, students who pursue a major specifically in computer science or computer engineering — both STEM disciplines — are projected to earn the most right out of school with median wages of $80,000.

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Even so, demand for humanities majors is on the rise, and with good reason, despite some student debt critics taking aim at the low value of some coursework, like “zombie studies,” for example.

At a conference last year, Robert Goldstein, the chief operating officer of BlackRock, the world’s biggest money manager, said the firm was adjusting its hiring strategy for recent grads. “We have more and more conviction that we need people who majored in history, in English, and things that have nothing to do with finance or technology,” Goldstein said.

This demand for liberal arts degrees is due in part to the rise of AI, which drives the need for creative thinking and so-called soft skills

Opportunities in health care

Meanwhile, jobs in the the health care sector continue to be in high demand in 2025.

The U.S. economy added 902,000 health care and social assistance jobs last year and employment in health care occupations is “projected to grow much faster than the average” for all U.S. jobs through 2033, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The unemployment rate among nursing majors is just 1.4%, the New York Fed also found.

“Nursing is extremely resilient in times of economic uncertainty, like we ae seeing right now,” said Travis Moore, a registered nurse and healthcare strategist at job site Indeed.

Although the median wage right out of school [for nurses] is lower than it is for economics and finance majors, heading into a possible economic downturn, job security may be a more important measure, he said.

“There’s a significant nursing shortage going on right now,” Moore said — and that “creates a really strong opportunity to get into a career with really low layoffs.”

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How college grads can find a job in a tough market

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A graduating student of the CCNY wears a message on his cap during the College’s commencement ceremony.

Mike Segar | Reuters

New college graduates looking for work now are finding a tighter labor market than they expected even a few months ago.

The unemployment rate for recent college grads reached 5.8% in March, up from 4.6% the same time a year ago, according to an April report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Job postings at Handshake, a campus recruiting platform, are down 15% over the past year, while the number of applications has risen by 30%. 

Christine Cruzvergara, chief education strategy officer at Handshake, says new grads are finding a “tough and competitive” market.

“There’s a lot of uncertainty and certainly a lot of competition for the current graduates that are coming into the job market,” she said.

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How federal job cuts hurt the Class of 2025

While the job creation in the U.S. has continued to show signs of strength, policy changes have driven the uncertainty.

President Donald Trump has frozen federal hiring and done mass firings of government workers. Evercore ISI, an investment bank, estimated earlier this month that 350,000 federal workers have been impacted by cuts from Department of Government Efficiency, representing roughly 15% of federal workers, with layoffs set to take effect over the coming months.

“In early January, the class of 2025 was on track to meet and even exceed the number of applications to federal government jobs,” Cruzvergara said. When the executive orders hit in mid-January there was  “a pretty steep decline all of a sudden, she said.

“The federal government is one of the largest employers in this country, and also one of the largest employers for entry-level employees as well,” said Loujaina Abdelwahed, senior economist at Revelio Labs, a workforce intelligence firm.

Employment uncertainty related to tariffs, AI

On-again, off-again tariff policies have created uncertainty for companies, with a third of chief executive officers in a recent CNBC survey expecting to cut jobs this year because of the import taxes.

Job losses from artificial intelligence technology are also a concern.

A majority, 62%, of the Class of 2025 are concerned about what AI will mean for their jobs, compared to 44% two years ago, according to a survey by Handshake. Graduates in the humanities and computer science are the most worried about AI’s impact on jobs.

“I think it’s more about a redefinition of the entry level than it is about an elimination of the entry level,” Cruzvergara said.

Postings for jobs in hospitality, education services, and sales were showing monthly growth through March, according to Revelio Labs. But almost all industries, with the exception of information jobs, saw pullbacks in April.

How to land a job in a tough market

For new grads hunting for a job, experts advise keeping a positive mindset.

“Employers don’t want to hire someone that they feel like is desperate or bitter or upset,” said Cruzvergara. “They want to hire someone that still feels like there’s a lot of opportunity, there’s a lot of potential.”

Here are two tactics that can help with your search:

1. Look at small firms — they may provide big opportunities

Companies with fewer than 250 employees may offer better opportunities to grow and learn than bigger “brand name” firms, according to Revelio Labs.

A new study by Revelio found that five years into their careers, graduates had comparable salary progression,  promotion timelines, and managerial prospects — regardless of the size of their first employer. However, people who started their careers at small companies were 1.5 times more likely to become founders of their own companies later in their careers.

The study looked at individuals who earned bachelor’s degrees in the U.S. between 2015 and 2022, following their career paths post-graduation.

Why getting a job feels so difficult right now

While some young workers may have entered start-ups with the goal of starting their own firm in the future, Abdelwahed said there’s often an opportunity at smaller companies to be given responsibilities beyond the job’s role. 

“Because the company’s small and the work needs to get done, so they just start to develop this entrepreneurship drive,” Abdelwahed said.

2. Network and use informational interviews

Experts also urge recent grads to reach out to people working in industries that pique their interest.

“Take an interest in someone else. Ask them questions about how they got to where they are, what they’ve learned, what you should know about that particular industry, what are emerging trends or issues that are facing them in the field right now,” said Cruzvergara.

This approach can help you sound more knowledgeable in the application and interviewing process.

— CNBC’s Sharon Epperson contributed reporting.

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How to appeal your home’s property taxes

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Many homeowners have seen their property taxes increase in recent years because of rising housing prices and local tax rates. But the property tax assessment isn’t always set in stone: filing an appeal may lower the cost for years.

The median property tax bill in the U.S. in 2024 was $3,500, up 2.8% from $3,349 in 2023, according to an April report by Realtor.com. 

How much you pay varies widely depending on where you live, and some places have seen higher bills and bigger increases.

As of 2023, the median property tax for homeowners in New York City was $9,937, according to a new report by LendingTree. The city ranks first among the metropolitan areas with the highest median property taxes. Rounding out the top three are San Jose, California and San Francisco, where homeowners paid a median $9,554 and $8,156, respectively.

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Over 40% of homeowners across the U.S. could potentially save $100 or more per year by protesting their assessment value, Realtor.com estimates, with median savings of $539 a year. 

“You’re banking on several years of savings,” said Pete Sepp, president of the National Taxpayers Union Foundation.

That’s because while some state or local governments mandate annual property tax reassessments, others set less frequent cycles with gaps of several years — and some have no set schedule at all. There are also some events that can trigger a reassessment, like a home sale or renovations.

Here’s what you need to know before you appeal a property tax increase, according to experts. 

‘You’re paying more than you should’

A tax assessment is the way officials determine the value of your property for tax purposes.

Your home’s market value, or what it would sell for, is a major component, but other factors can sway that result. It will ultimately depend on how property taxes are assessed in your area.

“It’s not a nationwide formula,” said Melissa Cohn, regional vice president of William Raveis Mortgage. 

However, it’s not uncommon for properties to be over-assessed, meaning you end up paying more in taxes than you should be, said Sepp. Sometimes it can be due to inaccuracies that were never corrected in your home’s assessment.

For example: Your assessment might have 2,500 square feet of livable space cited when it’s really 2,000 square feet, or note four full bathrooms when the home really has three full and one half-bath.

Why home payments are skyrocketing

“Those kinds of things get embedded in your property assessment, and year after year, you’re paying more than you should,” Sepp said.

NTUF estimates 30% to 60% of taxable property in the U.S. is over-assessed, based on reports from individual state tax assessors.

How to appeal

Appealing your assessment is “not a terribly difficult investment of time for a residential property owner,” said Sepp. “The processes are reasonably easy and fair.”

Should you be successful, the change typically takes effect for the current tax year, and it becomes the basis for your next assessment, he said.

If you plan to appeal your taxes, your goal is to demonstrate how the assessor is incorrectly applying the assessment formula to your house, said Sal Cataldo, a real estate lawyer and partner at O’Doherty & Cataldo in Sayville, New York. 

“It’s challenging the numbers that they’re plugging into the formula for your particular house,” he said. 

Here’s how to get started: 

1. See if your current assessment is accurate

The first step is to look at the accuracy of your own assessment. You should receive the assessment if it’s in the cycle. You should also be able to find or request your records online through your county, city or district assessor.

Make sure the details about your house are correct, said Sepp, such as the square footage or the age of your roof. 

If you notice inaccuracies, start to gather paperwork as evidence. For example, if the roof appears to be relatively new in your assessment, but is in fact much older, look in your records for invoices from contractors from when it was previously repaired, or even the home inspection from when you bought the property.

2. Compare your property to your neighbors’ homes

Knowledge of other houses in your neighborhood or homes close to yours is important because it can help you appeal your tax bill, said Cataldo.  

As tax records are public, you can find out what your neighbors with similar homes are paying in taxes. If you’re paying more, that might be an indication that your taxes may be over-assessed, he said. 

You’ll also be able to see if they are paying less taxes because they qualify for tax exemptions, Cataldo said.

3. See if you qualify for tax exemptions

4. Know your deadline

Make sure to meet your area’s recurring deadline to appeal your bill, Sepp said. Sometimes it will appear in fine print in the assessment. The time window to file your paperwork can span from 30 to 45 days ahead of that deadline, for example.

5. Seek expert guidance

Sometimes it might be worth tapping expert guidance or advice, such as a real estate agent who’s very knowledgeable about your area, or an appraiser. They can help you compare home values to yours. Before you hire someone, research to understand what their services entail and what they charge.

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