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Why new retirees may need to rethink the 4% rule

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A popular retirement strategy known as the 4% rule may need some recalibration for 2025 based on market conditions, according to new research.

The 4% rule helps retirees determine how much money they can withdraw annually from their accounts and be relatively confident they won’t run out of money over a 30-year retirement period.

According to the strategy, retirees tap 4% of their nest egg the first year. For future withdrawals, they adjust the previous year’s dollar figure upward for inflation.

But that “safe” withdrawal rate declined to 3.7% in 2025, from 4% in 2024, due to long-term assumptions in the financial markets, according to Morningstar research.

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Specifically, expectations for stock, bond and cash returns over the next 30 years declined relative to last year, according to Morningstar analysts. This means a portfolio split 50-50 between stocks and bonds would have less growth.

While history shows the 4% rule is a “reasonable starting point,” retirees can generally deviate from the retirement strategy if they’re willing to be flexible with annual spending, said Christine Benz, director of personal finance and retirement planning at Morningstar and a co-author of the new study.

That may mean reducing spending in down markets, for example, she said.

“We caution, the assumptions that underpin [the 4% rule] are incredibly conservative,” Benz said. “The last thing we want to do is scare people or encourage people to underspend.”

How the 4% rule works

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In many ways, drawing down one’s nest egg is harder than growing it.

Pulling out too much money early in one’s retirement years — especially in down markets — generally raises the odds that a saver will run out of money in later years.

There’s also the opposite risk, of being too conservative and living well below one’s means.

The 4% rule aims to guide retirees to relative safety.

Here’s an example of how it works: An investor would withdraw $40,000 from a $1 million portfolio in the first year of retirement. If the cost of living rises 2% that year, the next year’s withdrawal would rise to $40,800. And so on.

Historically — over a period from 1926 to 1993 — the formula has yielded a 90% probability of having money remaining after a three-decade-long retirement, according to Morningstar.

Using the 3.7% rule, the first-year withdrawal on that hypothetical $1 million portfolio falls to $37,000.

That said, there are some downsides to the framework of the 4% rule, according to a 2024 Charles Schwab article by Chris Kawashima, director of financial planning, and Rob Williams, managing director of financial planning, retirement income and wealth management.

For example, it doesn’t include taxes or investment fees, and applies to a “very specific” investment portfolio — a 50-50 stock-bond mix that doesn’t change over time, they wrote.

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It’s also “rigid,” Kawashima and Williams said.

The rule “assumes you never have years where you spend more, or less, than the inflation increase,” they wrote. “This isn’t how most people spend in retirement. Expenses may change from one year to the next, and the amount you spend may change throughout retirement.”

How retirees can tweak the 4% rule

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Additionally, investors may be able to give themselves a bit of a raise when markets are up significantly in a given year and reduce withdrawals when markets are down, Benz said.

If possible, delaying Social Security claiming to age 70 — thereby increasing monthly payments for life — may be a way for many retirees to boost their financial security, she said. The federal government adds 8% to your benefit payments for each full year you delay claiming Social Security benefits beyond full retirement age, until age 70.

However, this calculus depends on where households get their cash in order to defer the Social Security claiming age. Continuing to live off job income is better, for example, than leaning heavily on an investment portfolio to finance living costs until age 70, Benz said.

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Cities where you can quickly save a 20% home down payment

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How long it takes you to save for a 20% down payment on a home depends in part on where you live. 

In a pricey area such as New York City, it could take the typical buyer roughly 10.85 years to save $173,000, which is 20% of the median list price of $865,000 for a home, according to a report by RealtyHop, a real estate investment agency.

RealtyHop measured the “barrier to homeownership” for the top 100 U.S. cities by population. The analysis is based on median list price using more than 1.5 million residential listings, as well as median household income data from the U.S. Census Bureau. It assumes a household saves 20% of its annual gross income and intends to make a 20% down payment.

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In each of the five cities with the lowest barrier to homeownership, the savings timeline is less than four years.

Detroit has the lowest barrier to homeownership, the report found. 

In Detroit, potential homebuyers who earn about $39,575 — the median household income in the area — need just 2.53 years to come up with a 20% down payment on a home purchase, the report found. That amounts to $20,000 for a home priced at $100,000.

Cleveland, Ohio, is the runner-up: A potential buyer in the area needs 3.55 years to save $27,800, or 20% of a home that costs $139,000, the median listing price in the area.

Rounding out the top five are Baltimore; Buffalo, New York; and Pittsburgh.

Even in cheap cities, there can be savings roadblocks

Big expenses can derail your down payment savings timeline, even in a city where homes are less expensive.

A separate report by Zoocasa, a Canada-based real estate website and brokerage, found that homebuyers with children on average take longer to come up with a 20% down payment versus buyers without children because of expenses such as child care costs.

Potential homebuyers with children in Detroit, for example, need roughly 20.3 years to save for a 20% down payment from scratch, according to Zoocasa. Meanwhile, homebuyers without children in the area need about 4.2 years to come up with a 20% down payment if they’re starting off without prior savings, the report found.

Rising home prices can represent another challenge, said Jacob Channel, an economist at LendingTree.

“The more expensive real estate is where you want to live, the more you’ll probably want to save for a down payment,” Channel said.

The median list price for homes in Los Angeles, for example, is about $1.13 million, RealtyHop found. LA tops the list of five cities with the biggest barriers to homeownership, followed by Irvine, California; Miami; New York City; and Anaheim, California.

Even the cheapest real estate price on the “high barrier” list — No. 3, Miami — is $699,000, nearly three times pricier than the most expensive city on the “low barrier” list, Pittsburgh.

If a typical household in LA aimed for a 20% down payment, they would need to save $1,339 a month for roughly 14.10 years, the report found.

Why you might not need to put 20% down

In many cases, a 20% down payment is not required for you to buy a home.

In the third quarter of 2024, the average down payment was 14.5% and the median amount was $30,300, according to Realtor.com data. That’s down from 14.9% and $32,700 in the second quarter of 2024, the site found.

Some mortgages require much smaller down payments. For instance, the Department of Veterans Affairs offers VA loan programs; those who qualify can put down as little as 0%. Mortgages from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, referred to as USDA loans, aim to help buyers purchase homes in rural areas and also offer 0% down payment options. 

Federal Housing Administration loans, or FHA loans, can require as little as 3.5% down for qualifying borrowers, which include first-time buyers, low- and moderate-income buyers, and buyers from minority groups. 

The disappearance of the starter home

The benefit of a smaller down payment is that you can become a homeowner faster, and with less saved up, experts say. 

But if you decide to buy a home with less cash upfront, you’ll likely end up with higher monthly mortgage payments

“If you put less money toward a down payment, you’re going to end up with a larger loan,” Channel said.

Additionally, private mortgage insurance is usually added on to the monthly cost when the buyer puts less than 20% down on the home, he said.

PMI can cost anywhere from 0.5% to 1.5% of the loan amount per year, depending on factors such as your credit score and your total down payment, according to The Mortgage Reports. For example, on a loan for $300,000, mortgage insurance premiums could cost from $1,500 to $4,500 a year, or $125 to $375 a month, the site found.

“That’s another kind of payment that might be bundled in with your mortgage that further increases your housing costs,” Channel said. 

How to come up with your own savings timeline

Where you want to live long-term and what your financial circumstances are can help you figure out your own down payment savings timeline, according to Melissa Cohn, regional vice president at William Raveis Mortgage.

First, you need to have a good household budget — understand how much money you make, the amount you typically spend and what you’re able to save in a given month, said Cohn. 

“Can you cut back on how much you spend? Can you increase your savings? … Can you save your bonuses every year?” she said. 

Then, find out what a house in your desired location typically costs. “It would be important for a buyer to go out and get an understanding of what price point would work for them,” Cohn said. 

You also have to save for closing costs, which can vary substantially from place to place, Cohn said.

Average closing costs can range from roughly 2% to 6% of the loan amount, according to NerdWallet. So a $300,000 mortgage could require from $6,000 to $18,000 in closing costs on top of the down payment, it said.

To figure out what closing costs typically amount to in your desired area, ask a mortgage broker or a real estate agent, she said. 

Overall, you want to set realistic goals for yourself and take the time you need to get there. 

“Go as slow or as quickly as you need to,” LendingTree’s Channel said. “Ensure that you’re making good choices.”

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How Trump’s second term could mean the downfall of the FDIC, CFPB

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Here's what to expect from the Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE

Sweeping changes may be in store once President-elect Donald Trump takes office. Among them could be the closure of numerous federal agencies and regulators.

Trump will be sworn in for a second nonconsecutive term in the White House on Jan. 20. Already, he has suggested major cuts to federal spending.

To that end, Trump named Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy co-chairs of a new outside advisory board dubbed the Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE. 

As part of its agenda, advisors to the government-efficiency group reportedly inquired about the possibility of shrinking or dismantling the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, or FDIC, according to a December report in The Wall Street Journal. In a Nov. 27 post on X, Musk also suggested the White House should “delete” the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, another independent agency. “There are too many duplicative regulatory agencies,” he wrote in the post.

Trump’s transition team did not respond to a request for comment.

The future of the FDIC

Most bank account holders take for granted the fact that their deposits are insured.

Since its creation during the Great Depression, the FDIC has secured up to $250,000 per depositor, per bank, in each account ownership category. And over nearly a century, no depositor has lost FDIC-insured funds due to a bank failure

“That’s one of its legacies,” said William Isaac, who was named chairman of the FDIC by former President Ronald Reagan and headed the agency during the banking crisis of the 1980s.

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In place of the independent agency, the Trump administration could task the Treasury Department with overseeing deposit insurance, according to reports.

“There may be great value in downsizing or eliminating overlapping agencies while still keeping key underlying functions they serve,” said Tomas Philipson, a professor of public policy studies at the University of Chicago and former acting chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. “For example, one proposal is to have Treasury insure bank-deposits rather than an additional agency such as FDIC.”

“It’s important to separate what government activities are being performed from who or how many agencies are in charge,” Philipson said. “Holding constant the activities being regulated, the fewer agencies the better.”

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“I think it’s a terrible idea,” Isaac said of abolishing the agency. “The FDIC has brought about stability like we’ve never seen before.”

Others also argue that eliminating the FDIC would undermine the consumer lending system and leave some savers vulnerable.

“Getting rid of the FDIC would be a disaster for the U.S. economy and its preeminent status as a financial center,” said Brett House, economics professor at Columbia Business School. “Deposits are an abundant, cheap source of capital for American financial institutions.”

“Large banks may do fine without FDIC protections on their clients. But an end to federal insurance on them would be a serious drag on regional financial institutions that provide a major source of consumer lending and small-business financing,” House said.

Ultimately, because Congress controls the appropriation of federal funds, any proposal to eliminate the FDIC or any other agency would require congressional action.

The future of the CFPB

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has a much shorter track record than the FDIC. The watchdog group was created by Congress on the heels of the 2008 financial crisis to enforce consumer protection laws. 

Since then, the CFPB has issued roughly 35 regulatory reports, including a 2024 effort to insulate Americans from credit card late fees.

“The CFPB is a recent creation and U.S. markets clearly functioned well for decades without it,” said Columbia’s House. “But recent increases in market concentration and power for a handful of firms in several major economic sectors makes the CFPB a critical force in balancing business and consumer interests.”

Unlike the FDIC, the CFPB draws its funding from the Federal Reserve system. Because it does not rely on an annual appropriation from Congress, it is somewhat insulated from political pressure.

However, the Consumer Bankers Association says the agency has increasingly “advanced ideologically-driven policies,” particularly over the last four years.

“The incoming administration and Congress have a unique and important opportunity to institute meaningful reforms to the CFPB, in both the immediate and long-term, that can help transform the agency into the credible and durable regulator Americans deserve,” CBA President and CEO Lindsey Johnson said in an email.

The CBA also released a white paper Tuesday outlining recommended changes to the CFPB, which include repealing or rescinding recent rules and guidance.

Consumers, however, are largely in favor of the CFPB’s actions, according to advocates. The agency protects “hard-working people from predatory practices and discrimination in financial services,” Richard Dubois, executive director of the National Consumer Law Center, said in a statement.

If the CFPB is dismantled, that could mean consumers would see some of those protections overturned — and it’s unclear what government entity, if any, might pick up the agency’s efforts for new or emerging issues. The CFPB has been investigating digital payment apps and buy now, pay later services, for example.

But there may still be room for streamlining, Isaac said.

“Surely we are wasting a lot of money. Anything we can cut out that’s not necessary — that’s fat — needs to be cut,” he said.

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What to expect from travel prices in 2025

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Osaka, Japan.

Jiale Tan | Moment | Getty Images

The new year has many travelers thinking ahead to 2025 vacation plans — and how much those trips may cost.

About half — 51% — of Americans say flight cost will determine their destination choices this year, according to Skyscanner. And 50% said hotel costs are a factor.

The average person has paid more for travel of late: Airline fares were up 8% in December, on an annual basis, and hotel costs had increased 2%, according to the consumer price index.

But travelers can still find deals, experts said.

They may find the best bargains by going abroad in 2025 — especially by visiting the Asia-Pacific region, experts said.

Travel demand has come back very strongly, says Star Alliance CEO

Airfare for international trips is down 4% this year compared with 2024, according to a recent Kayak analysis. About two-thirds of all flight searches for travel in 2025 are for international flights, it found.

Conversely, airfare for U.S. flights in 2025 is up 3% from last year, Kayak said.

Kayak’s analysis examined its internal search data between May 1 and Oct. 31, 2024, for travel in 2025.

Domestic fares in January are about 12% higher relative to the same month last year, according to Hopper, a travel site. They’re expected to stay above 2023 and 2024 levels until at least halfway through the year.

“Overall, it’s going to be a more expensive year than last year” for domestic travel, said Hayley Berg, lead economist at Hopper.

Largely, that’s because flying domestically in 2024 was cheap, as airlines “flooded the market” with seat inventory, Berg said.

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“Prices this year are very similar to prices in 2023,” she said. “And 2024 really threw us for a loop in how low they got.”

Meanwhile, long-haul fares to Europe, South America, Oceania and Asia are flat or lower to start the year, Berg said.

Of course, a trip abroad is likely to be more costly on a dollar basis than one closer to home: The average round-trip U.S. flight cost about $300 in January, versus $685 to South America, $750 to Europe and about $1,100 to Asia, according to Hopper.

Average hotel rates abroad and in the U.S. are similar to 2024, according to Kayak.

Rental cars are 8% and 4% more expensive for international and domestic rates, respectively, it said.

Why Asia is ‘the best bargain’

Sapporo, Japan.

Sergio Formoso | Moment | Getty Images

A ‘new market equilibrium’ for airfare

Daniel Garrido | Moment | Getty Images

Airfare to Asia-Pacific destinations is pulling back from high levels following the Covid-19 pandemic, Berg said.

Asian nations were generally slower to reopen their borders and drop Covid restrictions relative to other countries. Now, airlines are adding flight routes, boosting supply and lowering seat prices, Berg said.

“We have to see what the new market equilibrium will be,” Berg said.

Jet fuel prices — a major input cost for airlines — were down 11% in January from last year, Hopper said.

Like Asia, travel to the Caribbean is also the cheapest in three years, with airfare down 17% compared with 2024, according to Kayak.

Hotel deals more likely for off-season travel

Tips for saving money on travel in 2025

Colton Stiffler | Moment | Getty Images

There are some ways consumers can reliably save money on travel expenses.

1. Flexibility is ‘key’

“Flexibility is really the key to saving on travel,” Berg said.

This applies to many aspects of travel, including destination, the time of year you visit that locale and the days of the week you travel, experts said.

For example, it’s generally cheaper to fly midweek. Hotel stays have a similar dynamic. The bottom line: Weekends are probably pricier.

“Adjusting your [hotel] stay to midweek instead of weekends or traveling during the off-season can lead to substantial savings,” Sally French, a travel expert at NerdWallet, wrote in an e-mail.

Seasonality has a “huge effect” on flight costs, Fish said.

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A bucket-list trip to Europe in August will be expensive and crowded, but traveling in September or October can save you 30%, Berg said. Visit a city instead of taking a beach trip during spring break, or wait until fall to head to Europe, Fish recommended.

Experts also recommend travel “dupes,” a less-trodden but similar alternative to a popular destination.

Also be open to alternative airports, French said.

“Many cities are served by multiple airports,” she said. “Rather than fly into, say San Francisco International Airport, consider flying into Oakland International Airport, which is a similar distance to most parts of the city for a trip to San Francisco.”

2. Book at the right time

Domestic flights are often cheaper when bought about one to three months ahead, French said. International travelers should book two to eight months in advance.

Last-minute airfare deals are rare, so book in advance for maximum availability and generally lower prices, she said.

The logic isn’t always the same for hotels: Travelers can sometimes find last-minute deals on room rates in certain markets, Fish said.

3. Book directly with your hotel

Many hotels offer price-match guarantees or loyalty member discounts that aren’t available on third-party booking sites, French said.

“Third-party booking sites can be great to browse and compare hotels against each other on that site, but once you’ve narrowed down the hotel you want to book, check its price elsewhere (including the direct hotel website, or even bank travel portals),” she wrote in an e-mail.

4. Set flight alerts

Use tools such as Google Flights or Hopper to monitor prices and snag deals when fares drop, French said.

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