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Why new retirees may need to rethink the 4% rule

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A popular retirement strategy known as the 4% rule may need some recalibration for 2025 based on market conditions, according to new research.

The 4% rule helps retirees determine how much money they can withdraw annually from their accounts and be relatively confident they won’t run out of money over a 30-year retirement period.

According to the strategy, retirees tap 4% of their nest egg the first year. For future withdrawals, they adjust the previous year’s dollar figure upward for inflation.

But that “safe” withdrawal rate declined to 3.7% in 2025, from 4% in 2024, due to long-term assumptions in the financial markets, according to Morningstar research.

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Specifically, expectations for stock, bond and cash returns over the next 30 years declined relative to last year, according to Morningstar analysts. This means a portfolio split 50-50 between stocks and bonds would have less growth.

While history shows the 4% rule is a “reasonable starting point,” retirees can generally deviate from the retirement strategy if they’re willing to be flexible with annual spending, said Christine Benz, director of personal finance and retirement planning at Morningstar and a co-author of the new study.

That may mean reducing spending in down markets, for example, she said.

“We caution, the assumptions that underpin [the 4% rule] are incredibly conservative,” Benz said. “The last thing we want to do is scare people or encourage people to underspend.”

How the 4% rule works

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In many ways, drawing down one’s nest egg is harder than growing it.

Pulling out too much money early in one’s retirement years — especially in down markets — generally raises the odds that a saver will run out of money in later years.

There’s also the opposite risk, of being too conservative and living well below one’s means.

The 4% rule aims to guide retirees to relative safety.

Here’s an example of how it works: An investor would withdraw $40,000 from a $1 million portfolio in the first year of retirement. If the cost of living rises 2% that year, the next year’s withdrawal would rise to $40,800. And so on.

Historically — over a period from 1926 to 1993 — the formula has yielded a 90% probability of having money remaining after a three-decade-long retirement, according to Morningstar.

Using the 3.7% rule, the first-year withdrawal on that hypothetical $1 million portfolio falls to $37,000.

That said, there are some downsides to the framework of the 4% rule, according to a 2024 Charles Schwab article by Chris Kawashima, director of financial planning, and Rob Williams, managing director of financial planning, retirement income and wealth management.

For example, it doesn’t include taxes or investment fees, and applies to a “very specific” investment portfolio — a 50-50 stock-bond mix that doesn’t change over time, they wrote.

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It’s also “rigid,” Kawashima and Williams said.

The rule “assumes you never have years where you spend more, or less, than the inflation increase,” they wrote. “This isn’t how most people spend in retirement. Expenses may change from one year to the next, and the amount you spend may change throughout retirement.”

How retirees can tweak the 4% rule

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Additionally, investors may be able to give themselves a bit of a raise when markets are up significantly in a given year and reduce withdrawals when markets are down, Benz said.

If possible, delaying Social Security claiming to age 70 — thereby increasing monthly payments for life — may be a way for many retirees to boost their financial security, she said. The federal government adds 8% to your benefit payments for each full year you delay claiming Social Security benefits beyond full retirement age, until age 70.

However, this calculus depends on where households get their cash in order to defer the Social Security claiming age. Continuing to live off job income is better, for example, than leaning heavily on an investment portfolio to finance living costs until age 70, Benz said.

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What a ‘revenge tax’ in Trump’s spending bill means for investors

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WASHINGTON DC, UNITED STATES – MAY 30: United States President Donald Trump departs at the White House to U.S. Steel’s Irvin Works in West Mifflin, Pennsylvania in Washington D.C May 30, 2025.

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As the Senate weighs President Donald Trump‘s multi-trillion-dollar spending package, a lesser-known provision tucked into the House-approved bill has pushback from Wall Street.

The House measure, known as Section 899, would allow the U.S. to add a new tax of up to 20% on foreigners with U.S. investments, including multinational companies operating in the U.S.

Some analysts call the provision a “revenge tax” due to its wording. It would apply to foreign entities if their home country imposes “unfair foreign taxes” against U.S. companies, according to the bill.

“Wall Street investors are shocked by [Section] 899 and apparently did not see it coming,” James Lucier, Capital Alpha Partners managing director, wrote in a June 5 analysis.

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If enacted as written, the provision could have “significant implications for the asset management industry,” including cross-border income earned by hedge funds, private equity funds and other entities, Ernst & Young wrote on June 2.

Passive investment income could be subject to a higher U.S. withholding tax, as high as 50% in some cases, the company noted. Some analysts worry that could impact future investment.

The Investment Company Institute, which represents the asset management industry serving individual investors, warned in a May 30 statement that the provision is “written in a manner that could limit foreign investment to the U.S.”

But with details pending as the Senate assesses the bill, many experts are still weighing the potential impact — including who could be affected.

Here’s what investors need to know about Section 899.

How the ‘revenge tax’ could work

The second part of the measure would expand the so-called base erosion and anti-abuse tax, or BEAT, which aims to prevent corporations from shifting profits abroad to avoid taxes.

“Basically, all businesses that are operating in the U.S. from a foreign headquarters will face that,” said Daniel Bunn, president and CEO of the Tax Foundation. “It’s pretty expansive.”

The retaliatory measures would apply to most wealthy countries from which the U.S. receives direct foreign investment, which could threaten or harm the U.S. economy, according to Bunn’s analysis.

Notably, the proposed taxes don’t apply to U.S. Treasuries or portfolio interest, according to the bill.

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If enacted as drafted, Section 899 could raise an estimated $116 billion over 10 years, according to the Joint Committee on Taxation.

That could help fund other priorities in Trump’s mega-bill, and if removed, lawmakers may need to find the revenue elsewhere, Bunn said.

However, House Ways and Means Republicans may ultimately want foreign countries to adjust their tax policies before the new tax is imposed.

“If these countries withdraw these taxes and decide to behave, we will have achieved our goal,” Smith said in a June 4 statement.

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Forgotten 401(k) fees cost workers thousands in retirement savings

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No access to a 401(k)?

With more Americans job hopping in the wake of the Great Resignation, the risk of “forgetting” a 401(k) plan with a previous employer has jumped, recent studies show. 

As of 2023, there were 29.2 million left-behind 401(k) accounts holding roughly $1.65 trillion in assets, up 20% from two years earlier, according to the latest data by Capitalize, a fintech firm.

Nearly half of employees leave money in their old plans during work transitions, according to a 2024 report from Vanguard.

However, that can come at a cost.

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For starters, 41% of workers are unaware that they are paying 401(k) fees at all, a 2021 survey by the U.S. Government Accountability Office found.

In most cases, 401(k) fees, which can include administrative service costs and fees for investment management, are relatively low, depending on the plan provider. 

But there could be additional fees on 401(k) accounts left behind from previous jobs that come with an extra bite.

Fees on forgotten 401(k)s

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Former employees who don’t take their 401(k) with them could be charged an additional fee to maintain those accounts, according to Romi Savova, CEO of PensionBee, an online retirement provider. “If you leave it with the employer, the employer could force the record keeping costs on to you,” she said.

According to PensionBee’s analysis, a $4.55 monthly nonemployee maintenance fee on top of other costs can add up to nearly $18,000 in lost retirement funds over time. Not only does the monthly fee eat into the principal, but workers also lose the compound growth that would have accumulated on the balance, the study found.

Fees on those forgotten 401(k)s can be particularly devastating for long-term savers, said Gil Baumgarten, founder and CEO of Segment Wealth Management in Houston.

That doesn’t necessarily mean it pays to move your balance, he said.

“There are two sides to every story,” he said. “Lost 401(k)s can be problematic, but rolling into a IRA could come with other costs.”

What to do with your old 401(k)

When workers switch jobs, they may be able to move the funds to a new employer-sponsored plan or roll their old 401(k) funds into an individual retirement account, which many people do.

But IRAs typically have higher investment fees than 401(k)s and those rollovers can also cost workers thousands of dollars over decades, according to another study, by The Pew Charitable Trusts, a nonprofit research organization.

Collectively, workers who roll money into IRAs could pay $45.5 billion in extra fees over a hypothetical retirement period of 25 years, Pew estimated.

Another option is to cash out an old 401(k), which is generally considered the least desirable option because of the hefty tax penalty. Even so, Vanguard found 33% of workers do that.

How to find a forgotten 401(k) 

While leaving your retirement savings in your former employer’s plan is often the simplest option, the risk of losing track of an old plan has been growing.

Now, 25% of all 401(k) plan assets are left behind or forgotten, according to the most recent data from Capitalize, up from 20% two years prior.

However, thanks to “Secure 2.0,” a slew of measures affecting retirement savers, the Department of Labor created the retirement savings lost and found database to help workers find old retirement plans.

“Ultimately, it can’t really be lost,” Baumgarten said. “Every one of these companies has a responsibility to provide statements.” Often simply updating your contact information can help reconnect you with these records, he advised.   

You can also use your Social Security number to track down funds through the National Registry of Unclaimed Retirement Benefits, a private-sector database.

In 2022, a group of large 401(k) plan administrators launched the Portability Services Network.

That consortium works with defined contributor plan rollover specialist Retirement Clearinghouse on auto portability, or the automatic transfer of small-balance 401(k)s. Depending on the plan, employees with up to $7,000 could have their savings automatically transferred into a workplace retirement account with their new employer when they change jobs.

The goal is to consolidate and maintain those retirement savings accounts, rather than cashing them out or risk losing track of them, during employment transitions, according to Mike Shamrell, vice president of thought leadership at Fidelity Investments, the nation’s largest provider of 401(k) plans and a member of the Portability Services Network.

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‘What’s the point’ of saving money

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Gen Z seems to have a case of economic malaise.

Nearly half (49%) of its adult members — the oldest of whom are in their late 20s — say planning for the future feels “pointless,” according to a recent Credit Karma poll.

A freewheeling attitude toward summer spending has taken root among young adults who feel financial “despair” and “hopelessness,” said Courtney Alev, a consumer financial advocate at Credit Karma.

They think, “What’s the point when it comes to saving for the future?” Alev said.

That “YOLO mindset” among Generation Z — the cohort born from roughly 1997 through 2012 — can be dangerous: If unchecked, it might lead young adults to rack up high-interest debt they can’t easily repay, perhaps leading to delayed milestones like moving out of their parents’ home or saving for retirement, Alev said.

But your late teens and early 20s is arguably the best time for young people to develop healthy financial habits: Starting to invest now, even a little bit, will yield ample benefits via decades of compound interest, experts said.

“There are a lot of financial implications in the long term if these young people aren’t planning for their financial future and [are] spending willy-nilly however they want,” Alev said.

Why Gen Z feels disillusioned

That said, that many feel disillusioned is understandable in the current environment, experts said.

The labor market has been tough lately for new entrants and those looking to switch jobs, experts said.

The U.S. unemployment rate is relatively low, at 4.2%. However, it’s much higher for Americans 22 to 27 years old: 5.8% for recent college grads and 6.9% for those without a bachelor’s degree, according to Federal Reserve Bank of New York data as of March 2025.

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Young adults are also saddled with debt concerns, experts said.

“They feel they don’t have any money and many of them are in debt,” said Winnie Sun, co-founder and managing director of Sun Group Wealth Partners, based in Irvine, California. “And they’re wondering if the degree they have (or are working toward) will be of value if A.I. takes all their jobs anyway. So is it just pointless?”

About 50% of bachelor’s degree recipients in the 2022-23 class graduated with student debt, with an average debt of $29,300, according to College Board.

The federal government restarted collections on student debt in default in May, after a five-year pause.

The Biden administration’s efforts to forgive large swaths of student debt, including plans to help reduce monthly payments for struggling borrowers, were largely stymied in court.

“Some hoped some or more of it would be forgiven, and that didn’t turn out to be the case,” said Sun, a member of CNBC’s Financial Advisor Council.

Meanwhile, in a 2024 report, the New York Fed found credit card delinquency rates were rising faster for Gen Z than for other generations. About 15% had maxed out their cards, more than other cohorts, it said.

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It’s also “never been easier to buy things,” with the rise of buy now, pay later lending, for example, Alev said.

BNPL has pushed the majority of Gen Z users — 77% — to say the service has encouraged them to spend more than they can afford, according to the Credit Karma survey. The firm polled 1,015 adults ages 18 and older, 182 of whom are from Gen Z.

These financial challenges compound an environment of general political and financial uncertainty, amid on-again-off-again tariff policy and its potential impact on inflation and the U.S. economy, for example, experts said.

“You start stacking all these things on top of each other and it can create a lack of optimism for young people looking to get started in their financial lives,” Alev said.

How to manage that financial malaise

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“This is actually the most exciting time to invest, because you’re young,” Sun said.

Instituting mindful spending habits, such as putting a waiting period of at least 24 hours in place before buying a non-essential item, can help prevent unnecessary spending, she added.

Sun advocates for paying down high-interest debt before focusing on investing, so interest payments don’t quickly spiral out of control. Or, as an alternative, they can try to fund a 401(k) to get their full company match while also working to pay off high-interest debt, she said.

“Instead of getting into the ‘woe is me’ mode, change that into taking action,” Sun said. “Make a plan, take baby steps and get excited about opportunities to invest.”

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