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Why the stock market hates tariffs and trade wars

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Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. 

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

The stock market has been throwing a temper tantrum, fueled by fear of President Donald Trump’s tariff policy and the specter of an escalating global trade war.

Americans may wonder why trade policy has made stock investors so skittish.

At a high level, investors are nervous that a prolonged trade war poses significant risks for corporate profits and the U.S. economy, according to investment analysts.

That’s not a foregone conclusion, however. The Trump administration could strike trade deals and blunt the overall impact, for example, experts said.

“But if that doesn’t happen, the market may still be a long way from the bottom,” Thomas Mathews, head of Asia-Pacific markets at Capital Economics, wrote in a note on Monday.

The scope of the stock sell-off

The S&P 500 shed almost 11% in the two days of trading ended Friday.

It was the worst two-day stretch for the U.S. stock benchmark since March 12, 2020 — in the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic — and the fourth worst since 1950, according to Callie Cox, chief market strategist at Ritholtz Wealth Management.

Stocks briefly entered “bear market” territory — meaning they’d fallen 20% from their recent peak — during trading on Monday before paring some of those losses.

The market downside could come if the President is not about negotiation, says Jim Cramer

The sell-off came after Trump announced a sweeping plan Wednesday to put a 10% baseline tariff on U.S. trading partners. He set significantly higher rates for nations including China and traditional allies like European Union members.

Their scope caught many investors off guard.

The announcement “was more significant than most expected, so we had a material sell-off” in the stock market, Chris Harvey, head of equity strategy at Wells Fargo Securities, wrote in an e-mail.

Wall Street fears a hit to growth

The stock market is a forward-looking barometer of investor sentiment — and tends to fall when investors sense collective danger.

The fear is that tariffs will dent growth for publicly listed companies and the broader U.S. economy. Wall Street has raised its odds for a U.S. recession.

Tariffs are a tax paid by U.S. companies that import goods from abroad, and they therefore raise costs for U.S. businesses. Companies may eat some of that cost to avoid raising prices for consumers, eroding profits.

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But economists expect businesses will pass at least some of the extra cost to consumers. The average household will lose $3,800 of purchasing power per year due to tariff policies announced so far, according to the Yale Budget Lab.

Consumers may pull back on spending, and lower sales would likely dent company profits. Companies may opt to lay off workers, further pressuring consumer spending, which accounts for about 70% of the U.S. economy.

Trump tariffs raise recession threat: Here's how experts are reacting

Retaliatory trade measures compound the problems, economists said.

China put a 34% tariff on U.S. products after Trump’s announcement of “reciprocal” tariffs last week, and vowed it would “fight to the end.” Canada put 25% tariffs on a range of U.S. goods, while the EU bloc is readying its own 25% retaliatory duties.

(The S&P 500 was up over 2% Tuesday morning on rising hopes for trade deals with China and South Korea.)

Retaliatory tariffs make U.S. goods sold abroad more expensive, hurting export-reliant businesses — perhaps leading to layoffs and lower consumer spending.

“We expect many — if not all — countries outside the U.S. to adopt retaliatory tariffs of their own,” the Wells Fargo Investment Institute wrote in a note Friday.

Wells Fargo expects “significantly lower” growth for the U.S. economy in 2025 due to “unexpectedly aggressive tariff increases.” It lowered its target for gross domestic product to 1% from 2.5% this year.

For now, the economy isn’t yet showing signs of dramatic weakening, said Joe Seydl, senior markets economist at J.P. Morgan Private Bank. If tariff policy proves to be long lasting rather than temporary, the shock would likely cause a “mild” U.S. recession, he said.

Tariffs may impact inflation — and interest rates

U.S. Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference following a meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) at the headquarters of the Federal Reserve on June 14, 2023 in Washington, DC.

Drew Angerer | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Economists also expect tariffs to raise U.S. inflation this year, at a time when it hasn’t yet fallen back to earth from pandemic-era highs.

“While tariffs are highly likely to generate at least a temporary rise in inflation, it is also possible that the effects could be more persistent,” Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Friday.

The Fed may not cut interest rates as quickly as anticipated as a result.

The dynamic would likely keep borrowing costs higher for businesses, dampening growth prospects for those unable to invest in and expand their operations.

Market hates uncertainty, not tariffs

The current “tariff battle” is “very different” from tariffs in Trump’s first term, Seydl said.

One way: The scale.

The first Trump administration put tariffs on about $380 billion of imports, in 2018 and 2019, according to the Tax Foundation. Now, there are tariffs on more than $2.5 trillion of U.S. imports — or, about seven times more.

Another difference is the White House’s public stance toward tariffs and communication about it, analysts said.

During Trump’s first term, there was level of stock market volatility the administration didn’t find tolerable, Seydl said. Now, there appears to be less concern about stock gyrations — which is perhaps the most important factor in the stock sell-off, he said.

“The capital markets (especially equities) are sending a signal to the Administration that all is not well and the probability of recession, job losses, and a negative wealth effect are all increasing,” wrote Harvey of Wells Fargo.

“The Administration has been somewhat dismissive of these signals, creating a negative feedback loop,” Harvey wrote.

Uncertainty around the framework, goals, potential duration and the White House’s economic tolerance regarding tariffs makes it difficult for investors to assess market risk, he added.

It’s not all tariffs

While tariff policy was a catalyst for the recent sell-off, it wasn’t necessarily the only factor that contributed to the slide, analysts said.

For one, stock valuations were already elevated heading into 2025, Seydl said.

The market was trading at 22 times forward earnings — a measure of stock valuations — which was well above the 16.5 average over 1990 to 2024 and 12.8 average over 1950 to 2024, he said.

“When you have those elevated valuations, the market will be more sensitive to bad news,” Seydl said.

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Personal Finance

Here’s how tuition-free college aid programs can backfire

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Entrance to NYU Langone Hospital, New York City. 

Joan Slatkin | Universal Images Group | Getty Images

New York University’s Grossman School of Medicine made history in 2018 when it became the first top-ranked medical program to offer full-tuition scholarships to all students, regardless of need or merit. 

The number of applicants, predictably, spiked in the year that followed. But then, the share of incoming students considered “financially disadvantaged” sank to 3% in 2019, down from 12% in 2017, reports showed. 

“Tuition-free schools can actually increase inequity,” said Jamie Beaton, co-founder and CEO of Crimson Education, a college consulting firm. 

“Tuition-free colleges experience surges in application numbers, dramatically boosting the competitive intensity of the admissions process,” he said. “This in turn can skew admissions towards middle- or higher-income applicants who may be able to access more effective admissions resources, such as tutoring or extracurriculars.”

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“Our goal for tuition-free education was to clear pathways for the best and brightest future doctors from all backgrounds to attend NYU Grossman School of Medicine without the stress of taking on the average $200,000 in debt medical students typically incur,” Arielle Sklar, a spokesperson for the school told CNBC. “This allows students to align career choices with their passions in medicine rather than immediate economic pressures.”

Sklar, however, did not directly address the issue of declining low-income student enrollment.

Since the initiative by NYU’s Grossman School of Medicine, other top schools and programs have embraced the tuition-free model.

Harvard University was the latest undergraduate school to announce that it will be tuition free for undergraduates with family incomes of up to $200,000 beginning in the 2025-26 academic year, following similar initiatives at Vanderbilt University, Dartmouth, University of Pennsylvania and Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Nearly two dozen more schools have also introduced “no-loan” policies, which means student loans are eliminated altogether from their financial aid packages.

In the case of Harvard, “you may see a trend of families with income closer to $200,000 outcompeting low-income students for slots,” Beaton said. “This may shift the proportion of Harvard students from the top 1% of income down, but it might also decrease the share of low-income students to the benefit of middle or middle-upper income families.”

Dartmouth president: Need to ensure American students are competitive

More generous aid packages and tuition-free policies remove the most significant financial barrier to higher education but attract more higher-income applicants, other experts also say. 

“Even though it sounds like lower-income students are going to be advantaged, it’s the middle class that’s going to win here,” said Christopher Rim, president and CEO of college consulting firm Command Education.

“These colleges are trying to build a well-rounded class, they need middle class and wealthy students as well,” he added. “They are not trying to take fewer rich kids — they need them because they’re the ones that are also going to be donating.”

For lower income students, “anything that increases the number of applications will be detrimental,” said Eric Greenberg, president of Greenberg Educational Group, a New York-based consulting firm.

Nearly all students worry about high college costs

These days, taking on too much debt is the top worry among all college-bound students, according to a survey by The Princeton Review. 

College tuition has soared by 5.6% a year, on average, since 1983, significantly outpacing other household expenses, a recent study by J.P. Morgan Asset Management also found.

This rapid increase means that college costs have risen much faster than inflation, leaving families to shoulder a larger share of the expenses, experts say.

For the 2024-25 school year, tuition and fees plus room and board for a four-year private college averaged $58,600, up from $56,390 a year earlier. At four-year, in-state public colleges, it was $24,920, up from $24,080, according to the College Board.

To bridge the affordability gap, some of the nation’s top institutions are in an “affordability arms race,” according to Hafeez Lakhani, founder and president of Lakhani Coaching in New York. 

However, overall, most institutions do not have the financial wherewithal to offer tuition-free or no-loan aid programs, added Robert Franek, The Princeton Review’s editor in chief. “More than 95% of four-year colleges in the U.S. are tuition driven,” he said. 

Even if a school does not offer enough aid at the outset, there are other ways to bring costs down, according to James Lewis, co-founder of National Society of High School Scholars.

“Get beyond, ‘I can’t afford that,”‘ he said. “A lot of institutions will have a retail price but that’s not necessarily what a student will pay.”

Many schools will provide access to additional resources that can lower the total tab, he said, either through scholarships, financial aid or work-study opportunities.  

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You have options if you can’t pay your taxes by April 15

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Fotostorm | E+ | Getty Images

The tax deadline is days away — and the IRS is urging taxpayers to file returns on time and “pay as much as they can.”

However, if you can’t cover your total tax balance, there are options for the remaining taxes owed, according to the agency.

For most tax filers, April 15 is the due date for federal returns and taxes. But your federal deadline could be later if your state or county was impacted by a natural disaster.

If you are in the military stationed abroad or are in a combat zone during the tax filing season, you may qualify for certain automatic extensions related to the filing and paying of your federal income taxes.

Additionally, those living and working abroad also have extra time to file. 

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If you’re missing tax forms or need more time, You can file a tax extension by April 15, which pushes the federal filing deadline to Oct. 15.  

But “it’s an extension to file, not an extension to pay,” said Jo Anna Fellon, managing director at financial services firm CBIZ.

File by April 15 and ‘pay what you can’

If you can’t cover your balance by April 15, you should still file your return to avoid a higher IRS penalty, experts say.  

The failure-to-file penalty is 5% of unpaid taxes per month or partial month, capped at 25%.

By comparison, the failure-to-pay penalty is 0.5% of taxes owed per month, limited to 25%. Both penalties incur interest, which is currently 7% for individuals.

File on time and pay what you can.

Misty Erickson

Tax content manager at the National Association of Tax Professionals

“File on time and pay what you can,” said Misty Erickson, tax content manager at the National Association of Tax Professionals. “You’re going to reduce penalties and interest.” 

Don’t panic if you can’t cover the full balance by April 15 because you may have payment options, she said.

“The IRS wants to work with you,” Erickson added.

Options if you can’t pay your taxes

“Most individual taxpayers can qualify for a payment plan,” the IRS said in a recent news release.

The “quickest and easiest way” to sign up is by using the online payment agreement, which may include a setup fee, according to the agency.

These payment options include:

  • Short-term payment plan: This may be available if you owe less than $100,000 including tax, penalties and interest. You have up to 180 days to pay in full.
  • Long-term payment plan: You’ll have this option if your balance is less than $50,000 including tax, penalties and interest. The monthly payment timeline is up to the IRS “collection statute,” which is typically 10 years.  

The agency has recently revamped payment plans, to make the program “easier and more accessible.”    

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Regulated finance needs to build trust with Gen Z

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Parents want schools to step up in teaching kids financial literacy

Misinformation and lack of trust in traditional institutions runs rampant in our society.

The regulated financial sector is no different, particularly among young people. Roughly 38% of Gen Zers get financial information from YouTube, and 33% from TikTok, according to a recent Schwab survey.

As a former regulator and author of kids’ books about money, I am truly horrified by the toxic advice they are getting from these unqualified “finfluencers” — advice which, if followed, could cause lasting damage to their financial futures.

Most troubling are finfluencers who encourage young people to borrow. A central theme is that “chumps” earn money by working hard and that rich people make money with debt. They supposedly get rich by borrowing large sums and investing the cash in assets they expect to increase in value or produce income which can cover their loans and also net a tidy profit.

Of course, the finfluencers can be a little vague about how the average person can find these wondrous investments that will pay off their debt for them. Volatile, risky investments — tech stocks, crypto, precious metals, commercial real estate — are commonly mentioned.

‘The road to quick ruin’ for inexperienced investors

Contrary to their assertions, these finfluencers are not peddling anything new or revelatory. It’s simply borrowing to speculate.

For centuries, that strategy has been pursued by inexperienced investors as the path to quick riches, when in reality, it’s the road to quick ruin. There is always “smart money” on the other side of their transactions, ready to take advantage of them. For young people just starting out, with limited incomes and tight budgets, it’s the last thing they should be doing with their precious cash.

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Here’s a look at more stories on how to manage, grow and protect your money for the years ahead.

Debt glorification is not the only bad advice being peddled on the internet.

You can find finfluencers advising against diversified, low fee stock funds in favor of active trading (without disclosing research consistently showing active trading’s inferior returns). Or ones that discourage individual retirement accounts and 401(k) plans as savings vehicles in favor of real estate or business startups (without mentioning lost tax benefits as well as the heavy costs and expertise needed to manage real estate or high failure rates among young companies).

Some encourage making minimum payments on credit cards to free up money for speculative investments (without mentioning the hefty interest costs of carrying credit card balances which compound daily).

Why are so many young people turning to these unqualified social media personalities for help in managing their money instead of regulated and trained finance professionals?

One reason: the finfluencers make their advice entertaining. It may be wrong, but it’s short and punchy. Materials provided by regulated financial service providers can sometimes be dry and technical.

Where to get trustworthy money advice

Xavier Lorenzo | Moment | Getty Images

They may be boring, but regulated institutions are still the best resource for young people to get basic, free information.

FDIC-insured banks can explain to them how to open checking and savings accounts and avoid unnecessary fees. Any major brokerage firm can walk through how to set up a retirement saving account. It’s part of their function to explain their products and services, and they have regulators overseeing how they do it.

In addition, regulators themselves offer educational resources directly to the public. For young adults, one of the most widely used is Money Smart, offered by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation — an agency I once proudly chaired.

There are also many excellent regulated and certified financial planners. However, most young people will not have the budget to pay for financial advice. 

They don’t have to if they just keep it simple: set a budget, stick to it, save regularly, and start investing for retirement early in a low-fee, well-diversified stock index fund. They should minimize their use of financial products and services. The more accounts and credit cards they use, the harder it will be to keep track of their money.

Above all, they should ignore unqualified “finfluencers.” 

Check their credentials. Question their motives. Most are probably trying to build ad revenue or sell financial products. In the case of celebrities, find out who’s paying them (because most likely, someone is).

Regulated finance needs to reclaim its status as a more trustworthy source for advice. The best way to do that is, well, provide good advice. Every time a young adult is burnt by surprise bank fees, seduced into over borrowing by a misleading credit card offer, or told to put their retirement savings into a high fee, underperforming fund, they lose trust.

I know regulation and oversight are out of favor these days. But we need a way to keep out the bad actors, and practices to protect young people new to the financial world. It’s important to their financial futures and the future of the industry as well.

Sheila Bair is former Chair of the FDIC, author of the Money Tales book series, and the upcoming “How Not to Lose $1 Million” for teens. She is a member of CNBC’s Global Financial Wellness Advisory Board.

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