Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.
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The stock market has been throwing a temper tantrum, fueled by fear of President Donald Trump’s tariff policy and the specter of an escalating global trade war.
Americans may wonder why trade policy has made stock investors so skittish.
At a high level, investors are nervous that a prolonged trade war poses significant risks for corporate profits and the U.S. economy, according to investment analysts.
That’s not a foregone conclusion, however. The Trump administration could strike trade deals and blunt the overall impact, for example, experts said.
“But if that doesn’t happen, the market may still be a long way from the bottom,” Thomas Mathews, head of Asia-Pacific markets at Capital Economics, wrote in a note on Monday.
The scope of the stock sell-off
The S&P 500 shed almost 11% in the two days of trading ended Friday.
It was the worst two-day stretch for the U.S. stock benchmark since March 12, 2020 — in the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic — and the fourth worst since 1950, according to Callie Cox, chief market strategist at Ritholtz Wealth Management.
Stocks briefly entered “bear market” territory — meaning they’d fallen 20% from their recent peak — during trading on Monday before paring some of those losses.
The sell-off came after Trump announced a sweeping plan Wednesday to put a 10% baseline tariff on U.S. trading partners. He set significantly higher rates for nations including China and traditional allies like European Union members.
Their scope caught many investors off guard.
The announcement “was more significant than most expected, so we had a material sell-off” in the stock market, Chris Harvey, head of equity strategy at Wells Fargo Securities, wrote in an e-mail.
Wall Street fears a hit to growth
The stock market is a forward-looking barometer of investor sentiment — and tends to fall when investors sense collective danger.
The fear is that tariffs will dent growth for publicly listed companies and the broader U.S. economy. Wall Street has raised its odds for a U.S. recession.
Tariffs are a tax paid by U.S. companies that import goods from abroad, and they therefore raise costs for U.S. businesses. Companies may eat some of that cost to avoid raising prices for consumers, eroding profits.
But economists expect businesses will pass at least some of the extra cost to consumers. The average household will lose $3,800 of purchasing power per year due to tariff policies announced so far, according to the Yale Budget Lab.
Consumers may pull back on spending, and lower sales would likely dent company profits. Companies may opt to lay off workers, further pressuring consumer spending, which accounts for about 70% of the U.S. economy.
Retaliatory trade measures compound the problems, economists said.
China put a 34% tariff on U.S. products after Trump’s announcement of “reciprocal” tariffs last week, and vowed it would “fight to the end.” Canada put 25% tariffs on a range of U.S. goods, while the EU bloc is readying its own 25% retaliatory duties.
(The S&P 500 was up over 2% Tuesday morning on rising hopes for trade deals with China and South Korea.)
Retaliatory tariffs make U.S. goods sold abroad more expensive, hurting export-reliant businesses — perhaps leading to layoffs and lower consumer spending.
“We expect many — if not all — countries outside the U.S. to adopt retaliatory tariffs of their own,” the Wells Fargo Investment Institute wrote in a note Friday.
Wells Fargo expects “significantly lower” growth for the U.S. economy in 2025 due to “unexpectedly aggressive tariff increases.” It lowered its target for gross domestic product to 1% from 2.5% this year.
For now, the economy isn’t yet showing signs of dramatic weakening, said Joe Seydl, senior markets economist at J.P. Morgan Private Bank. If tariff policy proves to be long lasting rather than temporary, the shock would likely cause a “mild” U.S. recession, he said.
Tariffs may impact inflation — and interest rates
U.S. Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference following a meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) at the headquarters of the Federal Reserve on June 14, 2023 in Washington, DC.
Drew Angerer | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Economists also expect tariffs to raise U.S. inflation this year, at a time when it hasn’t yet fallen back to earth from pandemic-era highs.
“While tariffs are highly likely to generate at least a temporary rise in inflation, it is also possible that the effects could be more persistent,” Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Friday.
The Fed may not cut interest rates as quickly as anticipated as a result.
The dynamic would likely keep borrowing costs higher for businesses, dampening growth prospects for those unable to invest in and expand their operations.
Market hates uncertainty, not tariffs
The current “tariff battle” is “very different” from tariffs in Trump’s first term, Seydl said.
One way: The scale.
The first Trump administration put tariffs on about $380 billion of imports, in 2018 and 2019, according to the Tax Foundation. Now, there are tariffs on more than $2.5 trillion of U.S. imports — or, about seven times more.
Another difference is the White House’s public stance toward tariffs and communication about it, analysts said.
During Trump’s first term, there was level of stock market volatility the administration didn’t find tolerable, Seydl said. Now, there appears to be less concern about stock gyrations — which is perhaps the most important factor in the stock sell-off, he said.
“The capital markets (especially equities) are sending a signal to the Administration that all is not well and the probability of recession, job losses, and a negative wealth effect are all increasing,” wrote Harvey of Wells Fargo.
“The Administration has been somewhat dismissive of these signals, creating a negative feedback loop,” Harvey wrote.
Uncertainty around the framework, goals, potential duration and the White House’s economic tolerance regarding tariffs makes it difficult for investors to assess market risk, he added.
It’s not all tariffs
While tariff policy was a catalyst for the recent sell-off, it wasn’t necessarily the only factor that contributed to the slide, analysts said.
For one, stock valuations were already elevated heading into 2025, Seydl said.
The market was trading at 22 times forward earnings — a measure of stock valuations — which was well above the 16.5 average over 1990 to 2024 and 12.8 average over 1950 to 2024, he said.
“When you have those elevated valuations, the market will be more sensitive to bad news,” Seydl said.
Expected student loan interest rates for 2025-2026
The interest rate on federal direct undergraduate loans could be 6.39% in the 2025-2026 academic year, estimates Kantrowitz. The undergraduate rate for the 2024-2025 year is 6.53%.
At those new undergraduate rates, every $10,000 a family borrowed would lead to a $113 monthly student loan payment after graduation, assuming the student enrolled in a standard 10-year repayment plan. With interest, the borrower would repay $13,559.87 over that decade.
For graduate students, loans will likely come with an 7.94% interest rate, compared with the current 8.08%, Kantrowitz finds.
PLUS loans for graduate students and parents may have a 8.94% interest rate, a decrease from 9.08% now.
The government sets interest rates on its education loans once a year. The rates, which run from July 1 to June 30 of the following year, are based in part on the May auction of the 10-year Treasury note.
Kantrowitz based his calculations on the Treasury Department’s announced high yield rate on Tuesday of 4.34%.
The percentage of separated employees was significantly higher for certain departments — including so-called “revenue agents,” who conduct audits for the IRS. As of March, the agency lost 3,623 revenue agents, or 31%, according to the report.
The TIGTA report came the same day as President Donald Trump’s fiscal year 2026 discretionary budget request, which called for a nearly $2.5 billion IRS budget cut to end the “weaponization of IRS enforcement.”
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Tuesday defended the reduced spending request in a House of Representatives Appropriations subcommittee hearing. He said the federal government has cut $2 billion from the agency’s information technology budget “without any operational disruptions.”
As of April 25, the IRS processed more than 140 million returns during the 2025 filing season, slightly more than the previous year, according to agency data.
The Treasury did not respond to CNBC’s request for comment about the TIGTA report.
IRS cuts could help ‘wealthy tax dodgers’
In a March letter to former acting IRS commissioner Melanie Krause, more than 130 House Democrats warned that cutting compliance staff could limit the agency’s ability to collect unpaid taxes from “wealthy tax dodgers.” The lawmakers were responding to IRS staffing cuts that began in late February.
Those cuts hurt the agency’s ability to “improve collections, crack down on complex tax avoidance and evasion by high-income taxpayers and large businesses,” the lawmakers wrote.
Audits of the top 0.1% of taxpayers returned more than $6 in revenue for every dollar spent in resources, according to a 2023 working paper from researchers at the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, the Wharton School and University of Sydney.
At the House Appropriations subcommittee hearing on Tuesday, Bessent said “collections” were among his IRS priorities. But he expects to meet revenue goals via “smarter IT” and the “AI boom” rather than via “unseasoned collections agents.”
“I would expect that collection would continue to be very robust,” he said.
Frank Bisignano testifies before the Senate Finance Committee on his nomination to be Commissioner of the Social Security Administration, on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC, March 25, 2025.
Saul Loeb | AFP | Getty Images
The Senate has voted to confirm Frank Bisignano as the new commissioner of the Social Security Administration, ushering in new leadership at a federal agency that has already undergone many changes this year under the Trump administration’s Department of Government Efficiency.
Bisignano, the chairman and CEO of payments and financial technology company Fiserv Inc., was nominated to serve as Social Security commissioner in December by then President-elect Donald Trump. Trump started his second term on Jan. 20.
The Social Security Administration, which provides monthly benefit checks to more than 73 million beneficiaries, is currently operating under temporary leadership. Acting commissioner Leland Dudek took the helm in February, replacing Michelle King, who stepped down from the temporary role due to concerns about DOGE’s access to sensitive data.
A federal judge has since granted a preliminary injunction that prevents DOGE from accessing personally identifiable information including Social Security numbers, medical records, addresses, bank records, tax information and other sensitive data.
Bisignano’s confirmation vote on Tuesday was divided by party lines. Prior to the vote, Republicans had expressed support for Trump’s nominee, while Democrats raised concerns about Bisignano’s prospective leadership and his alleged ties to DOGE.
On the eve of the Senate confirmation vote, Democrats including Sens. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Ron Wyden of Oregon held a rally outside the Senate building to oppose Bisignano’s nomination.
“We want Donald Trump to stand with working families and seniors and stop the attack on Social Security once and for all,” Wyden, ranking member of the Senate Finance Committee, said at the Monday event.
Following the Tuesday Senate vote, advocacy groups expressed concern about the new agency leadership.
“This vote was an opportunity for the Senate to reject the decimation of Social Security, and demand that Trump nominate a commissioner who will stop the bleeding,” Nancy Altman, president of Social Security Works, said in a statement. “Instead, every Senate Republican just signed off on the DOGE destruction of Social Security.”
Neither Fiserv nor the White House responded to CNBC’s requests for comment by press time.
Who is Frank Bisignano?
Bisignano currently serves as chairman and CEO of Fiserv, which processes more than $2.5 trillion in payments per day, according to his Senate testimony.
Bisignano came to that role after serving as chairman and CEO of First Data Corp., which went public in 2015 and combined with Fiserv in 2019.
Before that, Bisignano was co-chief operating officer for JPMorgan Chase and CEO of its mortgage banking unit. Prior to JPMorgan Chase, he held several roles at Citigroup.
Bisignano was raised in a working class, multigenerational immigrant household in Brooklyn, New York, according to his Senate testimony. Bisignano’s father was a 46-year Department of Treasury employee who worked in customs enforcement.
“He was the hardest working person I’ve known,” Bisignano said in his Senate testimony. “I view federal workers from that vantage point.”
What lawmakers said about Bisignano’s nomination
During the consideration of Bisignano’s nomination, Democrats repeatedly raised concerns about his viability to lead the agency.
Warren and Wyden sent a letter to Bisignano ahead of his March confirmation hearing to ask about his views on privatizing the agency. The efforts by DOGE to “hollow out” the agency and “deprive Americans of Social Security benefits they earned and need” may pave the way for a “private sector fix,” the Democratic leaders said.
In his Senate testimony, Bisignano said he did not intend to privatize the agency.
“I’ve never thought about privatizing,” Bisignano said. “It’s not a word that anybody’s ever talked to me about. I don’t see this institution as anything other than a government agency that gets run for the American public.”
During the Senate hearing, Bisignano also faced questions about his involvement with recent changes at the Social Security Administration and with DOGE.
Wyden introduced an anonymous whistleblower letter from a “senior Social Security Administration employee who recently left the agency,” who said Bisignano had been briefed on “key SSA operations, personnel and management decisions.”
In response to a question about whether he would “lock DOGE out,” Bisignano promised to protect personally identifiable information.
“I am going to do whatever is required to protect the information that is private,” Bisignano said.
However, during a February CNBC interview, Bisignano said he is “fundamentally a DOGE person.”
While Democrats have cast doubt on Bisignano’s nomination, the Fiserv CEO has received praise from Republicans and former Citigroup CEO Sandy Weill.
In a March CNBC interview, Weill praised Bisignano as a “great manager” and “terrific person.”
“He used to work for me, and I think he’s the best operations person I’ve ever met in my life,” Weill said, adding we would be “very lucky to have him in that job.”
What Bisignano has said about Social Security
During a March Senate confirmation hearing, as he fielded questions from senators on a host of issues facing the Social Security Administration, Bisignano said it will be important to “put the beneficiaries first.”
“The ability to receive payments on time and accurately is job one,” Bisignano said.
Among the priorities Bisignano said he would emphasize if confirmed include bringing the Social Security’s error rate down, citing an Office of the Inspector General report that put it at around 1%.
“That’s a very high payment processing error rate,” Bisignano said, calling it “five decimal places too high.”
Reducing the agency’s error rate will help eliminate overpayment issues, where beneficiaries receive too much money in their benefit checks. Those errors, which may take months or years to catch, typically leave beneficiaries owing large sums to the Social Security Administration.
From fiscal years 2015 through 2022, the Social Security Administration paid about $71.8 billion in improper payments out of almost $8.6 trillion in benefits,representing about 0.84%, according to a 2024 Office of the Inspector General report.
The agency is currently in the process of adjusting the default withholding rate to 50% for certain benefits affected by overpayments, such as retirement, survivors and disability insurance. Under President Joe Biden, the default rate had been lowered to 10% of monthly benefits or $10, whichever was greater.
“I’m going to make sure that we recover all the money we should recover, but on the other hand we have to be humans in the process, too,” Bisignano told the Senate about overpayment clawbacks.
Bisignano also said he planned to reduce the chronically long wait times Americans face when seeking help from the agency, including when calling its 800 number or when applying for disability benefits.
Having to wait for more than 20 minutes on the phone is not acceptable, Bisignano said. Social Security Administration data shows only about 46% of calls get answered, likely because people get discouraged and hang up, he said.
“I think we could get that to under a minute,” Bisignano said of the agency’s phone wait times, in part by making AI available to people answering the phones to more quickly prompt them with the information they need to answer individuals’ queries.
Bisignano also promised to investigate why it takes so much time to process disability applications. Initial eligibility determinations currently take around seven months, a wait time that has doubled since prior to the Covid-19 pandemic, according to the Urban Institute.