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Why the U.S. job market has soured

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1 year ago

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Ozgur Donmaz | Photodisc | Getty Images

The U.S. job market has been showing signs of a gradual weakening. But new federal data issued Friday suggests it may have hit a long-awaited wall.

“We’re finally in the eye of the hurricane,” Daniel Zhao, chief economist at career site Glassdoor, wrote in a note.

“After months of warning signs, the July jobs report confirms that the slowdown isn’t just approaching — it’s here,” he wrote.

‘Very soft’ job market

Employers added just 73,000 jobs in July, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. That tally is less than expected.

Economists generally think the U.S. economy needs to add roughly 80,000 to 100,000 jobs per month to keep up with population growth, said Laura Ullrich, director of economic research for North America at job site Indeed.

The July figure suggests the job market isn’t keeping pace with population growth — and is therefore contracting, she said.

Even more concerning than the July numbers: The job growth figures for May and June were much weaker than initially thought, economists said.

The BLS revised the job growth figures for those months sharply downward, to 19,000 jobs added in May (down from an initial 144,000) and 14,000 in June (from 147,000).

All told, employers added 258,000 fewer jobs than initially thought.

U.S. added just 73,000 jobs in July and numbers for prior months were revised much lower

Such monthly revisions are typical as the BLS collects additional data from businesses and government agencies, but these adjustments were unusually large, economists said.

It’s unclear why, they said.

“Really, it just shows a very soft job market,” Ullrich said. “It’s not disastrous. Still, those are very weak job numbers,” and not something one would expect in a strong economy, she said.

The numbers could be revised again in August, economists said.

Tariffs, other factors pose headwinds

Job growth has averaged 35,000 in the past three months, when accounting for the revised data. By contrast, job growth averaged 111,000 per month in the first three months of 2025.

New jobs have also largely been concentrated in the health care and social assistance sectors, meaning opportunities haven’t been broad-based, economists said.

The data “does tell a completely different story about the job market than what we were originally thinking,” Glassdoor’s Zhao said in an interview.

“We had been under the impression the job market was holding up surprisingly resiliently against economic headwinds like tariffs,” he said.

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President Donald Trump announced a spate of new tariffs on Thursday, putting fresh import duties on several trading partners ranging from 10% to 41%.

Tariffs are taxes that U.S. companies pay on items they import.

Tariffs, when kept in place for the long term, generally raise prices for consumers and pressure profits for many businesses by raising their input costs, economists said. Additionally, Trump’s on-again-off-again approach to tariffs creates uncertainty for businesses, leading many to pull back on hiring, economists said.

The national hiring rate is around its lowest since 2014, outside of the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic.

“It’s hard for people to make a decision or change in the face of so much uncertainty,” Ullrich said.

Tariff policy compounds other headwinds, such as immigration policy that has reduced the amount of available workers, cuts to the federal workforce and government spending, and higher interest rates, Zhao said.

‘High degree of stagnation’ in job market

There are other concerning signs in the U.S. job market, economists said.

For example, the labor force participation rate fell to its lowest level since 2022, Thomas Ryan, North America economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a note Friday.

This is “potentially further evidence of President Trump’s immigration crackdown keeping undocumented migrants away from the labour market even though they remain in the country,” he wrote.

The unemployment rate also rose to 4.2% in July, up from 4.1% in June, the BLS reported.

The share of unemployed Americans who are long-term unemployed — meaning they’ve been out of work for more than six months — has increased to nearly 25% from 21.6% since July 2024, the BLS said.

One silver lining for workers: Layoffs remain near historical lows.

However, an environment of low layoffs, hiring and quitting creates challenges for job seekers.

“There’s a high degree of stagnation right now,” Ullrich said. “There’s not a lot of movement in and out of jobs.”

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$20,000 Caution Bond Requirement for US Visa Applications imposed on 50 Countries

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6 days ago

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August 8, 2026

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The United States Department of State has officially implemented a revised visa policy introducing a mandatory posting requirement for caution payments of up to $20,000 on select foreign travel applications. Under the updated regulatory framework, consular officials are authorized to require temporary nonimmigrant visa applicants from targeted foreign countries to post a refundable financial bond of $20,000 as a condition for visa issuance. The policy mechanism is designed to address diplomatic concerns regarding high overstay rates among temporary visitor, business, and educational visa categories.

The caution bond pilot program applies selectively to foreign nationals from designated countries whose diplomatic entities record historical visa overstay rates exceeding established federal thresholds. Under administrative guidelines published by the State Department, the full financial deposit is posted directly to a dedicated federal escrow account prior to final visa issuance. The entire caution payment is automatically refunded to the applicant upon verified proof of timely departure from the United States in strict compliance with the authorized duration of stay. Conversely, failure to depart within the legal timeframe results in full forfeiture of the posted financial bond to the United States government.

Diplomatic representatives and travel policy experts have expressed varying perspectives regarding the operational implementation of the caution bond system. Administration officials emphasize that the measure serves as an effective, market-based incentive to enforce international travel compliance and preserve domestic immigration security standards. However, international trade organizations and foreign diplomatic missions have raised concerns regarding the financial burden imposed on legitimate business travelers, foreign students, and commercial partners from developing nations.

The United States finalized the rule to make the temporary visa bond program permanent, taking effect on August 3, 2026. The updated permanent regulation replaces the prior 12-month pilot, eliminates the lowest $5,000 tier, and raises the maximum required bond amount to $20,000 for specific B-1/B-2 business and tourist visa applicants.

Here is the list of the 50 countries on the list as o August 3, 2026

African Nations (31 Countries)

  • Algeria
  • Angola
  • Benin
  • Botswana
  • Burundi
  • Cabo Verde (Cape Verde)
  • Central African Republic
  • Côte d’Ivoire (Ivory Coast)
  • Djibouti
  • Ethiopia
  • Gabon
  • The Gambia
  • Ghana
  • Guinea
  • Guinea-Bissau
  • Lesotho
  • Malawi
  • Mauritania
  • Mauritius
  • Mozambique
  • Namibia
  • Nigeria
  • São Tomé and Príncipe
  • Senegal
  • Seychelles
  • Tanzania
  • Togo
  • Tunisia
  • Uganda
  • Zambia
  • Zimbabwe

Asian & Eastern European Nations (11 Countries)

  • Bangladesh
  • Bhutan
  • Cambodia
  • Georgia
  • Kyrgyzstan
  • Mongolia
  • Nepal
  • Papua New Guinea
  • Tajikistan
  • Turkmenistan
  • Uzbekistan

Caribbean & Latin American Nations (5 Countries)

  • Antigua and Barbuda
  • Cuba
  • Dominica
  • Grenada
  • Venezuela

Oceanian Nations (3 Countries)

  • Fiji
  • Tonga
  • Vanuatu

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Personal Finance

Next-Generation Retirement Planning: Managing Longevity Risk and Variable Income Streams

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1 week ago

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August 7, 2026

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Retirement planning strategies are evolving in 2026 to address increased life expectancies, shifting dynamic market conditions, and the transition away from traditional defined-benefit pensions. Individual investors and financial advisors are abandoning rigid retirement models in favor of flexible, multi-asset strategies designed to mitigate longevity risk and preserve purchasing power over multi-decade retirement horizons.

Mitigating Longevity Risk with Dynamic Asset Allocation
As average life expectancies extend past eighty-five years, one of the primary financial risks facing retirees is outliving their accumulated wealth. Traditional fixed income allocations—such as the standard 60/40 equity-to-bond portfolio—are being reevaluated to ensure portfolios generate sufficient capital growth alongside reliable income.

Financial planners recommend maintaining a meaningful equity allocation throughout retirement to offset long-term inflation erosion. High-dividend equity funds, global real estate investment trusts (REITs), and inflation-indexed Treasuries are combined to create diversified portfolios that deliver both growth and income stability.

The Transition to Dynamic Withdrawal Strategies
The classic “4% safe withdrawal rule” is increasingly replaced by dynamic withdrawal strategies that adapt annually based on market performance. Under a dynamic withdrawal framework, retirees adjust their annual distribution rates within pre-set caps and floors:
– Market Upside: During strong market returns, retirees can increase discretionary spending or fund family legacy gifts.
– Market Downturns: During market pullbacks, spending distributions are temporarily reduced to prevent sequence-of-returns risk and preserve core investment principal.

Guaranteed Lifetime Income Options and Deferred Annuities
To establish a guaranteed baseline for essential living expenses, individuals are incorporating modern fixed-indexed and deferred longevity annuities into their broader retirement architectures. Modern annuity structures offer competitive return caps, transparent fee schedules, and inflation-adjustment options.

By funding essential expenses—such as housing, healthcare, and insurance—with guaranteed income streams from Social Security, pensions, and annuities, retirees can manage discretionary investment portfolios with greater flexibility and lower emotional stress during market volatility.

Actionable Steps for Future Retirees
1. Calculate Baseline Retirement Expenses: Determine fixed living costs and map guaranteed income sources to cover essential expenditures.
2. Adopt Flexible Withdrawal Rules: Implement dynamic spending rules to protect investment principal against market downturns.
3. Incorporate Inflation-Protected Assets: Maintain exposure to dividend-growing equities and inflation-indexed bonds to safeguard long-term purchasing power.

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Personal Finance

Building Generational Wealth: Family Governance, Estate Tax Optimization, and Asset Protection

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2 weeks ago

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August 1, 2026

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As the largest intergenerational transfer of wealth in history accelerates, high-net-worth families, entrepreneurs, and individual investors are placing heightened emphasis on comprehensive estate planning, family governance, and asset protection. Preserving capital across generations requires a balanced approach combining tax-efficient legal structures with open family communication and financial literacy education.

Optimizing Estate Tax Exemptions and Trust Structures
With potential modifications to federal estate tax exemption thresholds on the horizon, proactive estate planning is essential for high-net-worth households. Estate planning attorneys and wealth advisors are establishing multi-generational trust structures to transfer wealth efficiently while minimizing estate and gift tax exposure.

Popular structural strategies include:
– Irrevocable Life Insurance Trusts (ILITs): Utilizing life insurance proceeds to provide liquidity for estate tax obligations without expanding the taxable estate.
– Grantor Retained Annuity Trusts (GRATs): Transferring rapidly appreciating assets to beneficiaries with minimal gift tax consequences.
– Dynasty Trusts: Preserving wealth across multiple generations while providing long-term asset protection from creditor claims and legal liabilities.

Establishing Family Governance and Financial Education
Legal and financial structures alone cannot guarantee long-term wealth preservation without effective family governance. Financial advisors report that a significant percentage of multi-generational wealth dissipation stems from lack of communication and inadequate financial preparation among heir generations.

Families are establishing formal family governance frameworks, including periodic family meetings, written mission statements, and structured philanthropic foundations. Involving younger family members in charitable grant-making and investment discussions fosters financial stewardship and prepares heirs to manage family assets responsibly.

Digital Asset Custody and Legacy Planning
In today’s modern economy, estate planning must extend beyond physical real estate and traditional brokerage accounts to encompass digital assets. Comprehensive estate plans now include detailed inventories and legal access protocols for corporate domain names, intellectual property, digital media rights, and cryptocurrency holdings.

Fiduciaries and estate executors should be provided with secure, encrypted access mechanisms and clear legal authority to manage and transfer digital holdings in accordance with the owner’s estate directions.

Practical Steps for Legacy Planning
1. Review and Update Estate Documents: Ensure wills, revocable trusts, and power-of-attorney designations accurately reflect current family structures.
2. Establish Structured Trusts: Utilize irrevocable trusts to protect assets from creditors and minimize future estate tax liabilities.
3. Create a Digital Estate Inventory: Document access protocols and legal permissions for all online accounts, intellectual property, and digital assets.

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