A bipartisan bill to change Social Security benefit rules for pensioners passed in the House of Representatives on Tuesday, with 327 lawmakers voting to support the measure.

Now, the proposal heads to the Senate, where the chamber’s version of the bill has 62 co-sponsors, “surpassing the majority needed to pass the bill on the U.S. Senate floor and send it to the president’s desk to be signed into law,” Reps. Abigail Spanberger, D-Virginia, and Garret Graves, R-Louisiana, co-leaders of the bill, said in a joint statement.

The proposal — called the Social Security Fairness Act — would repeal rules that reduce Social Security benefits for individuals who receive pension benefits from state or local governments.

It would eliminate the windfall elimination provision, or WEP, that reduces Social Security benefits for individuals who worked in jobs where they did not pay Social Security payroll taxes and now receive pension or disability benefits from those employers. About 3% of all Social Security beneficiaries — about 2.1 million people — were affected by the WEP as of December 2023, according to the Congressional Research Service.

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The bill would also eliminate the government pension offset, or GPO, which reduces Social Security benefits for spouses, widows and widowers who also receive pension checks. As of last December, about 1% of all Social Security beneficiaries — or 745,679 individuals — were affected by the GPO, according to the Congressional Research Service.

These rules, which have been in effect for decades, reduce the incomes of certain retired police officers, teachers, firefighters and other public servants, Graves said during a Tuesday speech on the House floor.

“This has been 40 years of treating people differently, discriminating against a certain set of workers,” Graves said.

“They’re not people that are overpaid; they’re not people that are underworked,” he said.

Larson’s proposal, which has 188 House co-sponsors, would also repeal the WEP and GPO, while also implementing other temporary benefit increases. To help pay for those changes, it would require people with more than $400,000 in income to pay more Social Security payroll taxes.

On Tuesday, Larson voted against the Social Security Fairness Act, as well as another bill, the Equal Treatment of Public Servants Act. The latter bill would use a new formula for Social Security retirement and disability benefits for pensioners rather than eliminate the WEP. It would not change the GPO.

The bill, which was proposed by Rep. Jodey Arrington, R-Texas, failed when it was brought up for a vote.

“I could not vote for the bills on the floor tonight because they are not paid for and therefore put Americans’ hard-earned benefits at risk,” Larson said in a statement. “It would hurt most deeply the five million of our fellow Americans who receive below poverty checks, and almost half of all Social Security recipients who rely on their earned benefits for the majority of their income.”

The Social Security Fairness Act would add an estimated $196 billion to deficits over the next decade, the Congressional Budget Office has estimated. It would also move Social Security’s trust fund depletion dates closer by an estimated six months, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

“The long-term solvency of Social Security is an issue that Congress must address,” Spanberger said on the House floor on Tuesday.

“But that is a separate issue from allowing Americans who did their part, who contributed their earnings, for them to retire with dignity,” she said.

However, critics say Social Security’s funding woes should be a priority for Congress now. The program’s actuaries project the trust fund used to pay retirement benefits may be depleted in 2033, at which point 79% of benefits will be payable.

“This is not the right policy,” said Romina Boccia, director of budget and entitlement policy at the Cato Institute. “It’s what special interests were pushing, and politicians are responsive to their demands.”

Though the alternative bill proposed by Arrington would not address the GPO, it would provide a “fairer formula” for the WEP, Boccia said. However, broader changes are needed to shore up the program’s finances.

“We should reform Social Security so that it provides basic income security to the most vulnerable Americans in old age without adding to the debt or tax burden that younger workers face,” Boccia said.

Progress in the fight to tame pandemic-era inflation appears to have stalled out in October, despite lower prices at the gasoline pump and a moderation in other consumer staples such as groceries.

Meanwhile, economists think policies such as import tariffs floated by President-elect Donald Trump would likely — if enacted — exacerbate the inflation rate, which hasn’t yet declined to policymakers’ long-term target.

The consumer price index, a key inflation gauge, was up 2.6% in October versus a year ago — an increase from 2.4% in September, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday. The reading was in line with economists’ expectations.

While that October uptick may seem like a setback, consumers can take solace that broad price pressures are continuing to ease, economists and policymakers said.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday said economic data points to inflation “continuing to come down on a bumpy path.”

“One or two really good data months or bad data months aren’t going to really change the pattern at this point,” Powell said during a press conference.

Stephen Brown, deputy chief North American economist at Capital Economics, echoed that sentiment: “The overall [inflation] trend is positive,” he said.

In fact, the pickup in the annual inflation rate is at least partly due to a statistical quirk: The monthly inflation rate in October 2023 was unusually low, making the October 2024 reading look relatively high by comparison, economists said.   

Inflation has pulled back significantly from its pandemic-era peak of 9.1% in June 2022.

However, there are still some trouble spots.

Auto insurance prices, for example, are up 14% since October 2023, according to CPI data.

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Vehicle insurance premiums face “upward pressure” largely due to a lag effect from earlier inflationary dynamics, Brown said.

For example, new and used vehicle prices began to surge in 2021 amid a shortage of semiconductor chips used to manufacture cars; because of that sticker shock, insurers’ cost to replace vehicles after a car accident is much higher, Brown said. Insurers also typically need approval from regulators to raise consumer premiums, a process that takes time, he said.

“Lagged impacts” are affecting other categories, too, making for overall slow progress on reining in inflation, Brown said.

Shelter inflation has throttled back painfully slowly, even as inflation in the national rental market has declined considerably, economists said.

“Market rents, newly signed leases, are experiencing very low inflation,” Powell said during the press conference.

Shelter inflation has taken a long time to adjust to that housing backdrop due to how federal statisticians compile the CPI index. In short, its slow adjustment up or down is by design.

“So that’s just a catch-up problem,” Powell said. “It’s not really reflecting current inflationary pressures.”

CPI shelter inflation heated up on a monthly basis in October, rising to 0.4% from 0.2% in September. Its annual inflation rate has declined to less than 5% from a peak of more than 8% in early 2023.

Shelter is “the continued major impediment to getting inflation all the way back,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s.

The Federal Reserve has a long-term annual inflation target of around 2%.

Inflation for groceries cooled on a monthly basis, to 0.1% from September to October, down from 0.4% the prior month. Grocery prices are up about 1% since October 2023.

They’re “very, very tame,” Zandi said.

That’s despite various supply-and-demand idiosyncrasies that are raising prices for certain food items, he said. For example, avian flu, which is lethal for chickens and other birds, has negatively affected egg supply and led prices to swell 30% in the past year; similarly, a poor orange crop has pushed up orange prices 7% annually.

The price for a gallon of gasoline fell 1% during the month, according to CPI data. Prices are down more than 12% in the past year.

“Gasoline prices are way down,” Zandi said. Average prices could fall further, to below $3 a gallon, he said. They were at $3.05 a gallon, on average, as of Nov. 11, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

“We could get more relief there because global oil prices are soft,” Zandi said.

That weakness may be in anticipation of President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed policies around China, said Zandi. Those may include tariffs of at least 60% on goods imported from China, which has a huge appetite for oil. If Trump’s policies were to negatively affect the Chinese economy, they’d also likely dampen China’s oil demand.

Trump has proposed broader tariffs, of perhaps 10% or 20% on all goods imported to the U.S. Additionally, he has announced plans to deport millions of undocumented immigrants and enact a package of tax cuts.

If put in place, such policies would likely stoke U.S. inflation, economists said.

“While we believe that inflation remains on a disinflationary trajectory, we now see the risks as clearly tilted to the upside,” Bank of America economists wrote in a note Monday. “These risks stem from potential policy changes rather than economic fundamentals.”

Placing an import tax on goods would likely lead U.S. companies to raise prices for those goods, for example, economists said. Fewer immigrants in the labor pool may push businesses to raise wages to attract applicants and retain workers, while tax cuts could put more money in consumers’ pockets and boost their spending.

“Indeed, we see pro-growth fiscal policy, tariffs, and tighter immigration as potential sources of upside inflation risk over the coming years if they are implemented,” Bank of America economists wrote.

The annual inflation would likely be around 2.1% by the end of 2025 absent Trump’s policies, said Brown of Capital Economics. If enacted, that figure would likely be around 3%, he said, as a “ballpark estimate.”

“The return of inflation to the 2% target may prove short-lived,” Brown wrote in a research note Wednesday.

However, much depends on how, when and if those policies are enacted, economists said.

Amid the latest bitcoin rally, crypto investors face a looming deadline that could impact future taxes — and they must take action before Jan. 1, 2025.

The U.S. Department of the Treasury and IRS in July unveiled final tax reporting rules for digital asset brokers, with phased-in guidelines.

Starting in 2026, brokers will use Form 1099-DA to report gross proceeds from 2025 sales. In 2027, brokers will include “cost basis,” or the original purchase price for sales in 2026.

Basis is important because, generally, if you can’t prove your basis, the IRS considers it zero — which can inflate gains. Your profit is the sales price minus your basis.

The price of bitcoin jumped above $93,000 on Wednesday, notching a fresh record that added to the post-election rally.

“People don’t necessarily think of the tax consequences, especially when they see that we’re going up very rapidly,” said Matt Metras, an enrolled agent and owner of MDM Financial Services in Rochester, New York, where he specializes in digital assets.

In the meantime, investors must establish a “reasonable allocation” of basis by Jan. 1, 2025, according to the IRS revenue procedure released in July.

Investors should provide their broker with these details to avoid a “reporting nightmare” in the future, said Mukherjee, speaking at the American Institute of CPAs’ national tax conference in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday.

The new IRS reporting requirements come as the agency focuses on digital asset enforcement.

“These regulations are an important part of the larger effort on high-income individual tax compliance,” IRS Commissioner Danny Werfel said in a statement in July. “We need to make sure digital assets are not used to hide taxable income, and these final regulations will improve detection of noncompliance in the high-risk space of digital assets.”