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How Trump’s win was helped in part by young men’s financial struggles

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Voters stand in line at a local polling station in Washington, DC, on November 5, 2024. Americans cast their ballots in the presidential race between Republican nominee former President Donald Trump and Democratic nominee Vice President Kamala Harris, as well as multiple state elections that determine the balance of power in Congress. (Photo by Nicolas Economou/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

Nicolas Economou | Nurphoto | Getty Images

Going into election day, Americans were sharply divided. But the gender gap was among the most glaring splits, with more women backing Vice President Kamala Harris and a majority of men supporting President-elect Donald Trump.

Women favored Harris by an 8-point margin, with the vice president securing 53% support compared to Trump’s 45%. Men backed Trump by a 13-point margin, with 55% favoring Trump and 42% backing Harris — resulting in a 21-point gender divide, according to NBC News exit polls.

Trump gained massive support among men on economic issues, specifically, including Hispanic and Black voters who were feeling particularly pessimistic. Inflation was the top concern among voters overall, followed by the current state of the economy.

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A factor that drove young men to the polls may have been perceived economic disparities, according to experts, which ultimately helped Trump win on Election Day. 

“Men feel like there’s no pathway for economic mobility for them,” said Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecruiter.

‘That is a huge, huge gap’

There is a growing disillusionment taking hold.

Men are steadily dropping out of the workforce, especially those between the ages 25 to 54, which are considered their prime working years.

A study by the Pew Research Center found that men who are not college-educated leave the workforce at higher rates than men who are. At the same time, fewer younger men have been enrolling in college over the past decade.

In 1995, both young men and women equally were likely to hold a bachelor’s degree, at 25%. Today, 47% of women of ages 25 to 34 in the U.S. have a bachelor’s degree, compared with 37% of men their age, also according to Pew.

“That is a huge, huge gap,” Pollak said.

Schools often tout a four-year degree as the ideal scenario. And in many areas, vocational programs and other alternative pathways “aren’t as widespread” as they used to be, Pollak said.

At the same time, some traditional blue-collar jobs that used to employ more non-college educated men declined due to automation and globalization, leading to job displacement and uncertainty about future employment prospects, experts say.

Why men are leaving the workforce

Altogether, you have a group who feel like they’re “being left behind,” Pollak said.

Brett House, an economics professor at Columbia Business School, agreed: “The great concern is that we are developing a pool of young men that are neither developing the additional skills [nor] education necessary to participate fully in the labor force,” he said — particularly in “former manufacturing industrial powerhouse states.”

These days, young men are more likely to be considered NEETs — neither in employment, education or in training — a cohort that has been hardest hit by globalization and the decline of manufacturing in this country, according to Richard Fry, a senior researcher at Pew.

“When you don’t get rewarded for working, you work less,” Fry recently told CNBC. “That is a basic tenet of labor economics.”

Men were more likely than women to say they believed the results of the election would impact their financial life in the short term, according to a separate survey by NEFE. Those voters largely favored Trump.

Those with less than a high school diploma and those with a two-year degree were also most likely to say their financial life will be impacted by the presidential election. NEFE polled 1,000 adults about their financial feelings in relation to the 2024 general election in October.

“It’s reasonable that many Americans were weighing their current financial well-being and prospects for the future while casting their votes this November,” said Billy Hensley, NEFE’s president and CEO. Hensley is also a member of the CNBC Global Financial Wellness Advisory Board.

Young women have ‘made huge gains’ in the workforce

Meanwhile, women have “made huge gains” in their education and careers and working as much, if not more, than their male counterparts, according to Ali Bustamante, an economist and director at the Roosevelt Institute.

Today, women are getting married and having children later, if at all, and are prioritizing their careers, Pollak said. They’re looking to the government to make that choice less difficult through universal child care and access to abortion, she said.

“There was a time when people were either mothers and wives, or spinsters who worked,” Pollak said. “Now women often are prioritizing the career person over the wife and mother.”

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Personal Finance

Millennials will spend big this holiday season, TransUnion finds

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Increase in consumer holiday spending expected this year, says Mastercard's Michelle Meyer

Parents tend to splurge on their children during the holidays.

This year, 63% of millennials, many of whom now have school-age children of their own, said they plan to spend the same or more on holiday shopping as they did last year — the highest share of any generation, according to a quarterly report by TransUnion.

Millennials are also more likely to say their income went up over the last few months and that they expect their earnings potential to increase again in the year ahead. TransUnion polled 3,000 adults in October.

“I see a lot of optimism going into the holiday season,” said Charlie Wise, TransUnion’s senior vice president and head of global research and consulting.

For many in this group, recent wage gains have outpaced rising prices and, although the broader unemployment rate has ticked higher, “we are still seeing a steady employment situation,” Wise said. “When people have jobs, that confidence is going to translate into spending.”

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“It’s clear that millennials will play the largest role this holiday shopping season with the greatest expected spend,” Wise said.

Holiday spending between Nov. 1 and Dec. 31 is forecast to increase to a record total of $979.5 billion to $989 billion, according to the National Retail Federation.

Even as credit card debt tops $1.17 trillion, holiday shoppers expect to spend, on average, $1,778, up 8% compared with last year, Deloitte’s holiday retail survey found.

Meanwhile, 28% of holiday shoppers surveyed in September said they still had not paid off the gifts they purchased for their loved ones last year, according to a holiday spending report by NerdWallet, which polled more than 1,700 adults.  

Holiday spending may lead to holiday debt

While most shoppers — 74% — use credit cards to buy holiday gifts, 28% will dip into savings to make their purchases, and 16% will lean on buy now, pay later services, NerdWallet found. Survey respondents could choose multiple payment methods.

Buy now, pay later is one of the fastest-growing categories in consumer finance and is expected to become more popular in the weeks ahead, according to the most recent data from Adobe. Adobe forecasts buy now, pay later spending will peak on Cyber Monday with a new single-day record of $993 million.

However, managing multiple buy now, pay later loans with different payment dates may make it more likely for consumers to get in over their heads, some experts have cautioned — even more than with credit cards, which are simpler to account for, despite sky-high interest rates.

Market Navigator: Buy now, pay later boom

Sometimes, the option to pay in installments can make financial sense, especially at 0% interest, according to Marshall Lux, a senior fellow at the Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government at the Harvard Kennedy School.

“If used properly, it’s great,” Lux said.

“But a lot of people are going to spread out purchases over a longer period of time and then you get into high interest and a cycle of debt,” he said.

The more buy now, pay later accounts consumers have open at once, the more prone they become to overspending, missed or late payments and poor credit history, other research shows.

If a consumer misses a payment, there could be late fees, deferred interest or other penalties, depending on the lender. In some cases, those interest rates can be as high as 30%, rivaling the highest credit card charges. 

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Personal Finance

These key 401(k) changes are coming in 2025. What savers need to know

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Images By Tang Ming Tung | Digitalvision | Getty Images

As some Americans struggle to save for retirement, key 401(k) plan changes could soon make preparing easier for certain workers, experts say. 

Enacted by Congress in 2022, “Secure 2.0” ushered in sweeping changes to the U.S. retirement system, including several updates to 401(k) plans. Some of these provisions will go into effect in 2025.

Meanwhile, roughly 4 in 10 American workers say they are behind in retirement planning and savings, primarily due to debt, not enough income or getting a late start, according to a CNBC survey, which polled about 6,700 adults in early August.

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Dave Stinnett, Vanguard’s head of strategic retirement consulting, said 401(k) plans are “the primary way most Americans prepare for retirement” and those accounts can work “very, very well” when designed properly.

Here are some key changes for 2025 and what employees need to know.

‘Exciting change’ for catch-up contributions

For 2025, employees can defer $23,500 into 401(k) plans, up from $23,000 in 2024. Workers ages 50 and older can make up to $7,500 in catch-up contributions on top of the $23,500 limit.

But there’s an “exciting change” to catch-up contributions for a subset of older workers in 2025, thanks to Secure 2.0, according to certified financial planner Jamie Bosse, senior advisor at CGN Advisors in Manhattan, Kansas.

Starting in 2025, the catch-up contribution limit will jump to $11,250, about a 14% increase, for employees ages 60 to 63. Including the $23,500 limit, these workers can save a total of $34,750 in 2025.

Only 14% of employees maxed out 401(k) plans in 2023, according to Vanguard’s 2024 How America Saves report, based on data from 1,500 qualified plans and nearly 5 million participants.

On top of maxing out contributions, an estimated 15% of workers made catch-up contributions in plans that allowed it during 2023, the same report found.

Shorter wait for part-time workers

Secure 2.0 has also boosted access to 401(k) and 403(b) plans for certain part-time workers.

Starting in 2024, employers were required to extend plan access to part-time employees who worked at least 500 hours annually for three consecutive years. That threshold drops to two consecutive years in 2025.

“That’s a very good thing for long-term part-time workers” who may have struggled to qualify for 401(k) eligibility, said Stinnett.

That’s a very good thing for long-term part-time workers.

Dave Stinnett

Vanguard’s head of strategic retirement consulting

In March 2023, some 73% of civilian workers had access to workplace retirement benefits, and 56% of workers participated in these plans, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

“Coverage is my thing,” said Alicia Munnell, director of the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College.

“It’s important that people have coverage no matter where they go,” including from full-time to part-time at the same job, she added.

Mandatory auto-enrollment for new 401(k) plans

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Personal Finance

Top 10 S&P 500 stock winners since Election Day

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Stock traders on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.

Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Many large U.S. companies have seen their stocks swell since the presidential election.

The top 10 performing stocks in the S&P 500 index saw returns of 18% or more since Election Day, according to data provided by S&P Global Market Intelligence, which analyzed returns based on closing prices from Nov. 5 to Nov. 20.

Two companies — Axon Enterprise (AXON), which provides law-enforcement technology, and Tesla (TSLA), the electric-vehicle maker led by Elon Musk, an advisor to President-elect Donald Trump — saw their stocks gain more than 35%, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.

By contrast, the S&P 500 gained about 2% over the same period.

‘Usually a bad idea’ to buy on short-term gain

Investors should be cautious about buying individual stocks based on short-term boosts, said Jeremy Goldberg, a certified financial planner, portfolio manager and research analyst at Professional Advisory Services, Inc., which ranked No. 37 on CNBC’s annual Financial Advisor 100 list.

“It’s usually a bad idea,” Goldberg said. “Momentum is a powerful force in the market, but relying solely on short-term price moves as an investment strategy is risky.”

Investors should understand what’s driving the movement and whether the factors pushing up a stock price are sustainable, Goldberg said.

Why did these stocks outperform?

Lofty stock returns were partly driven by Trump administration policy stances expected to benefit certain companies and industries, investment experts said.

Deregulation and a softer view toward mergers and acquisitions are two “key” themes driving bullish sentiment after Trump’s win, said Jacob Manoukian, head of U.S. investment strategy at J.P. Morgan Private Bank.

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Relying solely on short-term price moves as an investment strategy is risky.

Jeremy Goldberg

portfolio manager and research analyst at Professional Advisory Services, Inc.

Rosy earnings and AI

Likewise, Axon beat analysts’ estimates in its Nov. 7 earnings results, with officials touting its “AI era plan” and raising earnings guidance, Goldberg said.

Axon and Palantir stocks were up 38% and 22%, respectively, from Nov. 5 to Nov. 20, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Some companies benefited from a combination of policy and earnings, experts said.

Rows of servers fill Data Hall B at Facebook’s Fort Worth Data Center in Texas.

Paul Moseley/Fort Worth Star-Telegram/Tribune News Service via Getty Images

Take Vistra Corp. (VST), an energy provider, for example. The company’s stock jumped 27% after Election Day.

Vistra is in talks with large data centers — or “hyperscalers” — in Texas, Pennsylvania and Ohio to build or upgrade gas and nuclear plants, Stacey Doré, Vistra’s chief strategy and sustainability officer, said on the company’s Q3 earnings call Nov. 7.

Tech companies are building more and more such data centers to fuel the AI revolution — and need to source increasing amounts of energy to run them.

The ‘Elon Musk premium’

President-elect Donald Trump and Elon Musk talk ring side during the UFC 309 event at Madison Square Garden on Nov. 16, 2024 in New York.

Chris Unger | Ufc | Getty Images

But Tesla stock has additional tailwinds, experts said.

For one, Trump wants to end a $7,500 federal tax credit for EVs. Scrapping that policy is expected to hurt Tesla’s EV rivals.

Tesla has also been developing technology for driverless vehicles. In Tesla’s recent earnings call, Musk said he’d use his influence in Trump’s administration to establish a “federal approval process for autonomous vehicles.”

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