If 2024 was the year that traditional foreign automakers were shown the exit on China’s car market, 2025 looks to be the year that a few local electric car companies can solidify their leadership. “In China, [new energy vehicle] leaders such as BYD are likely to consolidate their market position further, while foreign brands fade,” Nomura said in a 2025 global autos outlook published Dec. 4. They pointed out how BYD has already taken 16% of the entire Chinese auto market as of October this year — up from 12% in 2023. That’s according to year-to-date unit sales. The Hong Kong-traded automaker is Nomura’s top pick for the China car market. The analysts rate BYD a buy, with a price target of 375 Hong Kong dollars ($48.20), for upside of just over 3% from Friday’s close. BYD’s revenue in the third quarter topped that of Tesla for the first time on a quarterly basis . The Chinese automaker in 2023 produced more cars than Elon Musk’s automaker for a second-straight year . Tesla still made more battery-only cars than BYD, whose hybrid vehicles account for at least half of sales. But the U.S. electric car company sells in a far higher price range than most of BYD’s models. Tesla’s China sales fell by 4.3% in November from a year ago, while BYD saw a 67% surge, according to CNBC calculations of China Passenger Car Association Data. BYD is so far ahead of its competitors that the second-largest player by China market share, Geely , only has 8%, according to Nomura. HSBC analysts in late November raised their price target on Hong Kong-traded Geely Automobile to 19.30 HKD, nearly 31% higher than where the stock closed Friday. The firm rates the stock a buy. “We believe that the company is on track to exceed its full-year target of 2m units, with EV penetration likely to reach 40%, supported by the strong performance of newly launched models,” the HSBC analysts said. They expect Geely will grow sales by 22% next year to 2.6 million units. Geely owns U.S.-listed electric car company Zeekr and other auto brands, including Swedish brand Volvo, which the Chinese company acquired from Ford in 2010. Other traditional automakers, domestic and foreign, have struggled in China as the world’s largest auto market has swiftly shifted to battery-only and hybrid-powered cars. General Motors in the last week announced it expects to incur billions of dollars in costs as it restructures its joint venture with SAIC Motor Corp. in China. The changes include plans to close plants. SAIC GM Wuling, a local GM joint venture, had 3% of China’s auto market for the year as of October, according to Nomura. The company held 6% of the new energy vehicle segment, the data showed. Chinese electric car startups still only account for a fraction of the domestic market compared to top players BYD and Geely. One of Citi analysts’ buy-rated plays is Hong Kong-listed Yongda , which operates stores for several new energy vehicle brands in China, including Huawei’s Aito. While the Chinese smartphone and telecommunications giant has emphasized it does not make cars, Huawei has partnered with traditional automakers to sell battery-only and hybrid-powered vehicles that include its in-car entertainment system, driver-assist technology and other software. Citi analysts said that according to conversations with Yongda management on Dec. 4, cars running Huawei’s automobile system can reach 1 million unit sales next year, above the 700,000 unit sales forecast internally. Yongda expects total Huawei-authorized stores to exceed 20 by early next year, up from 8 currently, according to Citi. The firm has a price target of 2.98 HKD on Yongda, up nearly 47% from Friday’s close. Yongda also operates electric car stores for Xiaomi and Xpeng, according to Citi. Among the publicly traded Chinese electric car startups, Citi analysts have buy ratings on Nio and Leapmotor , but not Xpeng or Li Auto, both rated neutral. Citi said in a late November report that Hong Kong-listed Leapmotor is spending more efficiently on research and development than its peers, at around 7,400 yuan ($1,017) per car. In contrast, Xpeng spends 25,900 yuan, Nio spends 26,900 yuan and Li Auto spends 21,000 yuan, according to Citi. The analysts raised their price target on Leapmotor from 44.20 HKD to to 45.10 HKD, nearly 62% above Friday’s close. Citi expects Nio’s U.S.-traded shares can nearly double from current levels to $8.90. In a Dec. 3 meeting with Nio, Citi said the company is aiming to reach breakeven at a group level in 2026 partly by limiting research and development spending increases to less than 10% a year, and increasing car deliveries. The company aims to boost sales of its premium Nio brand by 10% to 20% next year, and accelerate sales of its recently launched lower-priced Onvo brand to 20,000 a month in March, the Citi report said. After two new SUVs launch in the second half of next year, the automaker expects Onvo monthly sales to reach 30,000 to 50,000 vehicles, Citi said.
Check out the companies making the biggest moves midday: Petco Health — The retailer slumped 22% after losing 4 cents per share in the fiscal first quarter, twice the 2-cent loss that analysts had estimated, based on FactSet data. Revenue of $1.49 billion missed the Street’s $1.50 billion consensus, while same-store sales dropped 1.3%, worse than the 0.6% decline forecast by analysts. Tesla — The EV maker added more than 6%, a day after plunging 14% as CEO Elon Musk and President Donald Trump publicly feuded . Broadcom — Shares of the chipmaker dipped 2.7% on lackluster free cash flow for the second quarter. Broadcom reported free cash flow of $6.41 billion. Analysts surveyed by FactSet were looking for $6.98 billion. Still, several analysts covering the stock raised their price targets. ABM Industries — Shares fell 11% after the facilities management company reported mixed results for its second quarter. Its adjusted earnings of 86 per share was in line with expectations, while its revenue of $2.11 billion topped the FactSet consensus estimate of $2.06 billion. ABM Industries also reiterated its earnings guidance for the year. Circle Internet Group — The stablecoin company popped 38%, following its Thursday debut on the New York Stock Exchange. Circle soared 168% in its first day of trading . Lululemon — The athleisure company pulled back 20% after its second-quarter outlook missed analyst estimates. CFO Meghan Frank also said on a call that Lululemon plans on taking “strategic price increases, looking item by item across our assortment” to mitigate the impact of higher tariffs. G-III Apparel Group — The apparel company tumbled 15% on much weaker-than-expected earnings guidance for the second quarter. The company sees earnings per share in a range of 2 cents to 12 cents. Analysts had estimated earnings of around 48 cents per share, according to FactSet. DocuSign — The electronic signature stock plunged 19% after the company cut its full-year billings forecast. Billings for the fiscal first quarter also came in lower than expected. Braze — Shares of the customer engagement platforms provider fell 13% on disappointing guidance. Braze guided for second-quarter adjusted earnings of 2 to 3 cents per share. Analysts polled by FactSet called for 9 cents per share. Its first-quarter results beat estimates. Quanex Building Products — The maker of windows and doors and other construction materials soared 18%, the most since September, after earning an adjusted 60 cents per share in its fiscal second quarter versus analysts’ consensus estimate of 47 cents, on revenue of $452 million against the Street’s $439 million, FactSet data showed. Adjusted EBITDA also topped forecasts. Samsara — Shares shed 5% after the software company projected revenue growth to slow. Samsara guided for second-quarter revenue to increase between $371 million and $373 million, up from the $367 million in the first quarter. That would be a slowdown on both a sequential and year-over-year basis. Solaris Energy Infrastructure — The oil and natural gas equipment and service provider rallied 10% after Barclays initiated research coverage with an overweight rating and $42 price target. “Solaris is the leader in distributed power with almost 2 GW of capacity to be added by 2027 with 67% allocated towards data centers on long term contracts,” the bank said.
A sign in German that reads “part of the UBS group” in Basel on May 5, 2025.
Fabrice Coffrini | AFP | Getty Images
The Swiss government on Friday proposed strict new capital rules that would require banking giant UBS to hold an additional $26 billion in core capital, following its 2023 takeover of stricken rival Credit Suisse.
The measures would also mean that UBS will need to fully capitalize its foreign units and carry out fewer share buybacks.
“The rise in the going-concern requirement needs to be met with up to USD 26 billion of CET1 capital, to allow the AT1 bond holdings to be reduced by around USD 8 billion,” the government said in a Friday statement, referring to UBS’ holding of Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bonds.
The Swiss National Bank said it supported the measures from the government as they will “significantly strengthen” UBS’ resilience.
“As well as reducing the likelihood of a large systemically important bank such as UBS getting into financial distress, this measure also increases a bank’s room for manoeuvre to stabilise itself in a crisis through its own efforts. This makes it less likely that UBS has to be bailed out by the government in the event of a crisis,” SNB said in a Friday statement.
‘Too big to fail’
UBS has been battling the specter of tighter capital rules since acquiring the country’s second-largest bank at a cut-price following years of strategic errors, mismanagement and scandals at Credit Suisse.
The shock demise of the banking giant also brought Swiss financial regulator FINMA under fire for its perceived scarce supervision of the bank and the ultimate timing of its intervention.
Swiss regulators argue that UBS must have stronger capital requirements to safeguard the national economy and financial system, given the bank’s balance topped $1.7 trillion in 2023, roughly double the projected Swiss economic output of last year. UBS insists it is not “too big to fail” and that the additional capital requirements — set to drain its cash liquidity — will impact the bank’s competitiveness.
At the heart of the standoff are pressing concerns over UBS’ ability to buffer any prospective losses at its foreign units, where it has, until now, had the duty to back 60% of capital with capital at the parent bank.
Higher capital requirements can whittle down a bank’s balance sheet and credit supply by bolstering a lender’s funding costs and choking off their willingness to lend — as well as waning their appetite for risk. For shareholders, of note will be the potential impact on discretionary funds available for distribution, including dividends, share buybacks and bonus payments.
“While winding down Credit Suisse’s legacy businesses should free up capital and reduce costs for UBS, much of these gains could be absorbed by stricter regulatory demands,” Johann Scholtz, senior equity analyst at Morningstar, said in a note preceding the FINMA announcement.
“Such measures may place UBS’s capital requirements well above those faced by rivals in the United States, putting pressure on returns and reducing prospects for narrowing its long-term valuation gap. Even its long-standing premium rating relative to the European banking sector has recently evaporated.”
The prospect of stringent Swiss capital rules and UBS’ extensive U.S. presence through its core global wealth management division comes as White House trade tariffs already weigh on the bank’s fortunes. In a dramatic twist, the bank lost its crown as continental Europe’s most valuable lender by market capitalization to Spanish giant Santander in mid-April.
Check out the companies making the biggest moves in premarket trading: Tesla —The EV maker added nearly 5%, a day after plunging 14% as CEO Elon Musk and President Donald Trump publicly feuded . Broadcom — Shares of the chipmaker slipped about 2% before the opening bell, on the heels of lackluster free cash flow in the second quarter. Broadcom reported free cash flow of $6.41 billion, while analysts surveyed by FactSet were looking for $6.98 billion. Broadcom stock has risen more than 12% year to date. Circle Internet Group — The stablecoin company popped nearly 14%, following its debut on the New York Stock Exchange Thursday. Circle soared 168% in its first day of trading . Lululemon — Stock in the athleisure company pulled back nearly 20% after its second-quarter outlook missed analyst estimates. Lululemon forecast earnings per share in the current quarter in the range of $2.85 to $2.90 per share, while analysts polled by LSEG were looking for $3.29. The firm also slashed its earnings outlook for the full year. DocuSign — The electronic signature stock plunged 19%. Despite beating Wall Street expectations on both lines for the first quarter, billings came in lower than anticipated, per FactSet. DocuSign also set current-quarter guidance for billings that was below analysts’ consensus forecast. Braze — Shares of the customer engagement platforms provider fell 6% following the company’s disappointing guidance. Braze guided for second-quarter adjusted earnings between 2 cents and 3 cents per share, while analysts polled by FactSet called for 9 cents per share. Its first-quarter results beat estimates. Samsara — Shares shed 12% after the software company projected revenue growth to slow. Samsara guided for second-quarter revenue to increase between $371 million and $373 million, up from the $367 million in the first quarter. That would be a slowdown on both a sequential and year-over-year basis. Rubrik — The stock gained about 4% following the cloud data management company’s top and bottom line beats for its first quarter. Rubrik lost an adjusted 15 cents per share, narrower than the 32 cent loss expected from analysts polled by FactSet. Revenue was $278.5 million, versus the $260.4 million consensus estimate. —CNBC’s Alex Harring and Brian Evans contributed reporting.