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China ramps up Wall Street meetings as Trump inauguration looms

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Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng has met with several U.S. finance executives in the last month as Beijing seeks to build relationships ahead of President-elect Donald Trump’s planned tariffs on China.

He Lifeng is one of China’s four vice premiers, and heads the ruling Chinese Communist Party’s economic and finance committee.

He met with BlackRock Chairman and CEO Larry Fink in Beijing on Dec. 5, and Goldman Sachs President and COO John E. Waldron on Dec. 4, according to state media. That followed a meeting with Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser on Nov. 21, state media said.

“The Chinese are seeking all possible avenues to access those now ascending to power in Washington. The Trump Team,” said Peter Alexander, founder of Shanghai-based consulting firm Z-Ben Advisors. “Back channeling is how China operates, even prefers, when building lines of communications.”

Goldman Sachs said it was aware of the reports. The two other financial firms did not respond to a CNBC request for comment.

Trump has filled his Cabinet picks with at least 10 reported billionaires, including two with a finance-heavy background: hedge fund manager Scott Bessent for treasury secretary and Cantor Fitzgerald CEO Howard Lutnick for commerce secretary.

Xi’s cautious tone reflects concerns about exacerbating structural challenges: Longview's McNeal

“I do think the Wall Street folks that are coming into commerce and treasury will serve a moderating role on the trade protectionist side,” said Clark Packard, research fellow at the Cato Institute. “It’s all relative because I do think there’s going to be something protectionist on the trade side. Those voices will be the voices that work to mitigate some of that.”

“Especially at Treasury they’re pretty worried about market reaction,” Packard said. “The one thing that can truly maybe scare Trump away from a really aggressive [policy] would be the market reaction.”

U.S. stocks are on track for a relatively rare second straight year of more than 20% gains. After tumbling early this year, Chinese stocks rebounded after Beijing signaled a shift toward stimulus in late September. Chinese authorities on Monday affirmed that supportive stance in a high-level meeting.

‘Keeping its options open’

With actions such as hosting Wall Street executives and imposing export controls on critical minerals, Beijing is keeping its options open, said Zongyuan Zoe Liu, who is Maurice R. Greenberg senior fellow for China studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. “They are preparing for the worst-case scenario.”

But she cautioned that it’s unlikely that financial institutions can do much to mitigate tariffs and tensions with the U.S. “Business transactions and Wall Street executives, one way or another, they would not give up opportunities in any market as long as it fits into their profile,” Liu said.

Chinese financial media summarized He Lifeng’s meetings with the U.S. executives as sending a signal on Beijing’s willingness to open up the financial sector and attract long-term, foreign institutional investment. Foreign capital inflows are often cast by Chinese state media as a symbol of support for the domestic market.

The Chinese vice premier also met with Invesco President and CEO Andrew Schlossberg in Beijing on Nov. 12, and HSBC Group Chairman Mark Tucker on Nov. 14, according to state media. HSBC said it had nothing to add to the report. Invesco did not respond to a request for comment.

U.S.-China capital markets have been “arguably the most dynamic and inter-connected aspect” of the bilateral relationship in the last two decades, said Winston Ma, adjunct professor at NYU School of Law.

“When the cross-border finance relationship is constructive and cooperative, it could lead to MAP, i.e. mutual assured [prosperity]; otherwise it will be MAD, mutual assured destruction,” Ma said, referring to a Cold War deterrence principle.

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Trump pivot on tariffs shows Wall Street still has a seat at his table

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Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, testifies during the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee hearing titled Annual Oversight of Wall Street Firms, in the Hart Building on Dec. 6, 2023.

Tom Williams | Cq-roll Call, Inc. | Getty Images

With each passing day since President Donald Trump‘s sweeping tariff announcement last week, a growing sense of unease had begun to pervade Wall Street.

As stocks plunged and even the safe haven of U.S. Treasurys were selling off, investors, executives and analysts started to fret that a core assumption from the first Trump presidency may no longer apply.

Amid the market carnage, the world’s most powerful person showed that he had a greater tolerance for inflicting pain on investors than anyone had anticipated. Time after time, he and his deputies denied that the administration would back off from the highest American tariff regime in a century, sometimes inferring that Wall Street would have to suffer so that Main Street could thrive.

“It goes without saying that last week’s price action was shocking to see as the market has begun to rewrite completely its sense for what a second Trump presidency means for the economy,” said R. Scott Siefers, a Piper Sandler analyst, earlier this week.

So it came as a huge relief to investors when, minutes after 1 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Trump relented by rolling back the highest tariffs on most countries except China, sparking the biggest one-day stock rally for the S&P 500 since the depths of the 2008 financial crisis.

Despite a presidency in which Trump has tested the limits of executive power — bulldozing federal agencies and laying off thousands of government employees, for example — the episode shows that the market, and by proxy Wall Street statesmen like JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon who can explain its gyrations, are still guardrails on the administration.

Later Wednesday afternoon, Trump told reporters that he pivoted after seeing how markets were reacting — getting “yippy,” in his words — and took to heart Dimon’s warning in a morning TV appearance that the policy was pushing the U.S. economy into recession.

Dimon’s appearance in a Fox news interview was planned more than a month ago and wasn’t a last-minute decision meant to sway the president, according to a person with knowledge of the JPMorgan CEO’s schedule.

Bond vigilantes

Of particular concern to Trump and his advisors was the fear that his tariff policy could incite a global financial crisis after yields on U.S. government bonds jumped, according to the New York Times, which cited people with knowledge of the president’s thinking.

“The stock market, bond market and capital markets are, to a degree, a governor on the actions that are taken,” said Mike Mayo, the Wells Fargo bank analyst. “You were hearing about parts of the bond market that were under stress, trades that were blowing up. You push so hard, but you don’t want it to break.”

Typically, investors turn to Treasurys in times of uncertainty, but the sell-off indicated that institutional or sovereign players were dumping holdings, leading to higher borrowing costs for the government, businesses and consumers. That could’ve forced the Federal Reserve to intervene, as it has in previous crises, by slashing rates or acting as buyer of last resort for government bonds.

Ed Yardeni on tariff pause: This is a positive development for the economy

“The bond market was anticipating a real crisis,” Ed Yardeni, the veteran markets analyst, told CNBC’s Scott Wapner on Wednesday.

Yardeni said it was the “bond vigilantes” that got Trump’s attention; the term refers to the idea that investors can act as a type of enforcer on government behavior viewed as making it less likely they’ll get repaid.

Amid the market churn, Wall Street executives had reportedly worried that they didn’t have the influence they did under the first Trump administration, when ex-Goldman partners including Steven Mnuchin and Gary Cohn could be relied upon.

But this last week also showed investors that, in his mission to remake the global order of the past century, Trump is willing to take his adversarial approach with trading partners and the larger economy to the knife’s edge, which only invites more volatility.

‘Chaos discount’

Banks, closely watched for the central role they play in lending to corporations and consumers, entered the year with great enthusiasm after Trump’s election.

The setup was as promising as it had been in decades, according to Mayo and other analysts: A strengthening economy would help boost loan demand, while lower interest rates, deregulation and the return of deals activity including mergers and IPO listings would only add fuel to the fire.

Instead, by the last weekend, bank stocks were in a bear market, having given up all their gains since the election, on fears that Trump was steering the economy to recession. Amid the tumult, it’s likely that reports will show that deal-making slowed as corporate leaders adopt a wait-and-see attitude.  

“The chaos discount, we call it,” said Brian Foran, an analyst at Truist bank.

Foran and other analysts said the Trump factor made it difficult to forecast whether the economy was heading for recession, which banks would be winners and losers in a trade war and, therefore, how much they should be worth.

Investors will next focus on JPMorgan, which kicks off the first-quarter earnings season on Friday. They will likely press Dimon and other CEOs about the health of the economy and how consumers and businesses are faring during tariff negotiations.

Wednesday’s reprieve could prove short lived. The day after Trump’s announcement and the historic rally, markets continued to decline. There remains a trade dispute between the world’s two largest economies, each with their own needs and vulnerabilities, and an unclear path to compromise. And universal tariffs of 10% are still in effect.

“We got close, and that’s a very uncomfortable place to be,” Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic advisor of Allianz, the Munich-based asset manager, said Wednesday on CNBC, referring to a crisis in which the Fed would need to step in.  

“We don’t want to get there again,” he said. “The more you get to that point repeatedly, the higher the risk that you’re going to cross it.”

The Fed got very close to having to intervene due to market malfunction, says Allianz's Mohamed El-Erian

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How the mother of all ‘short squeezes’ helped drive stocks to historic gains Wednesday

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A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during afternoon trading on April 9, 2025 in New York. 

Angela Weiss | Afp | Getty Images

A massive number of hedge fund short sellers rushed to close out their positions during Wednesday afternoon’s sudden surge in stocks, turning a stunning rally into one for the history books.

Traders — betting on share price declines — had piled on a record number of short bets against the U.S. stocks ahead of Wednesday as President Donald Trump initially rolled out steeper-than-expected tariffs.

In order to sell short, hedge funds borrow the security they’re betting against from a bank and sell it. Then as the security decreases in price from where they sold it, they buy it back more cheaply and return it to the bank, profiting from the difference.

But sometimes that can backfire.

As stocks soared on news of the tariff pause, hedge funds were forced to buy back their borrowed stocks rapidly in order to limit their losses, a Wall Street phenomenon known as a short squeeze. With this artificial buying force pushing it higher, the S&P 500 ended up with its third-biggest gain since World War II.

Coming into Wednesday, short positioning was almost twice as much as the size seen in the first quarter of 2020 amid the onset of the Covid pandemic, according to Bank of America. As funds ran to cover, a basket of the most shorted stocks surged by 12.5% Wednesday, according to Goldman Sachs, pulling off a larger jump than the S&P 500‘s 9.5% gain.

And a whopping 30 billion shares traded on U.S. exchanges during the session, marking the heaviest volume day on record, according to Nasdaq and FactSet data going back 18 years.

“You can’t catch a move. When you see someone short covering, the exit doors become so small because of these crowded trades,” said Jeff Kilburg, KKM Financial CEO and CIO. “We live in a world where there’s more and more twitchiness to the marketplace, there’s more and more paranoia.”

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Of course, there were real buyers too. Long-only funds bought a record amount of tech stocks during the session, especially the last three hours of the day, according to data from Bank of America.

But traders credit the shorts running for cover for the magnitude of the move.

“The pain on the short side is palpable; the whipsaw we have witnessed the past few weeks is extreme,” Oppenheimer’s trading desk said in a note. “What we saw in tech on that rise was obviously covering but more so real buyers adding on to higher quality semis.”

Thin liquidity also played a role in Wednesday’s monster moves. The size of stock futures (CME E-Mini S&P 500 Futures) one can trade with the click of your mouse dropped to an all-time low of $2 million on Monday, according to Goldman Sachs data. Drastically thin markets tends to fuel outsized price swings. 

Markets were pulling back Thursday as investors realized the economy is still in danger from super-high China tariffs and the uncertainty that daily negotiations with other countries will bring over the next three months.

There are still big short positions left in the market, traders said.

That could fuel things again, if the market starts to rally again.

“The desk view is that short covering is far from over,” Bank of America’s trading desk said in a note. “Our reasoning is that the market can’t de-risk a short in less than 3 hours which provided 20%+ SPX Index downside & major reduction in NET LEVERAGE over 7 seven weeks.”

“No shot it cleared in less than 3 hours,” Bank of America said.

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Stocks making the biggest moves midday: Capri, Janover, Harley-Davidson, CarMax, U.S. Steel and more

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These are the stocks posting the largest moves in midday trading.

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