Finance
November inflation increase won’t derail Fed interest rate cuts
Published
1 year agoon

Sticky inflation numbers for November show the Fed still has more work to do. (iStock)
Annual inflation increased to 2.7% in November, rising modestly above the 2.6% annual inflation rate of the previous month, according to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Inflation increased 0.3% on a monthly basis in November following four months of registering 0.2% monthly increases, according to BLS. The cost of housing was the most significant contributor to the monthly increase in November, accounting for nearly 40% of the monthly increase in all items. The price of food also increased by 0.4% in November. Energy prices rose 0.2% after being unchanged in October.
For now, the modest jump in inflation isn’t expected to dissuade the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates later this month. However, it does signal that the central bank may face an uphill battle in getting inflation to the 2% target rate, which may impact rate cuts in the New Year, according to Jim Baird, chief investment officer with Plante Moran Financial Advisors.
“The real questions relate to what comes next,” Baird said in a statement. “The path for 2025 is less clear, but a course correction by the Fed toward holding rates a bit higher for a bit longer appears increasingly probable.”
Last month, the Fed announced a highly anticipated quarter-point cut, lowering interest rates to 4.5% to 4.75%. Although inflation has moderated substantially over the last two years from a peak of 7% to 2.6%, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the Fed remains committed to returning inflation to its 2% goal.
“Inflation continues to weigh down the wallets of the average American family, along with persistently high interest rates impacting everything from credit card spending to mortgage refinancing,” Gabe Abshire, CEO of Move Concierge, said in a statement. “While the Fed will likely cut interest rates again next week, it will still take time before this will bring household costs down. If consumer prices don’t start dipping down soon, and inflation remains stubborn, the Fed likely won’t substantially cut interest rates in the near term.
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THE FED JUST CUT INTEREST RATES AGAIN, THIS TIME BY A QUARTER OF A PERCENTAGE POINT
Mortgage rates dip
For housing, it’s more of the same. High mortgage rates and home prices have kept buyers away. Mortgage rates have decreased in sync with the Fed’s interest rate cut. Last week, according to Freddie Mac, they decreased to their lowest level in over a month.
The Fed is not likely to put the brakes on rate cuts, and that is good news for the mortgage market, according to Realtor.com Chief Economist Danielle Hale.
“In the Fed’s most recent September projections, members anticipated a policy rate of 3.4% by the end of 2025, but the typical investor has currently priced in just 3.9%–two fewer cuts by the end of 2025,” Hale said in a statement. “The upside of this positioning is that there may be room for market interest rates to move lower if the Fed’s projection winds up closer to reality.”
Hale said Realtor.com anticipates that market mortgage rates will decrease to 6.2% by the end of 2025, which, combined with other factors, should help buyers access housing.
“This will help sales eke out a small gain in 2025 of 1.5% even as price increases of 3.7% keep monthly payments relatively steady for homebuyers,” Hale said. “Steady monthly payments and income gains from a still robust economy and healthy labor market will help affordability improve marginally in the year ahead.”
If you’re looking to purchase a home in today’s market, you can explore your mortgage options by visiting Credible to compare rates and lenders in minutes.
THE U.S. ADDED 227,000 JOBS IN NOVEMBER, SETTING IN MOTION POTENTIAL FED RED CATS IN DECEMBER
Car insurance prices ease
Car insurance decreased again in November with the rate of annual increase dropping for a seventh straight month, according to today’s CPI report. The 12.7% annual rise was the smallest since September 2022.
Insurance costs are still high, but the signs are that the worst rate hikes may be over, according to Josh Damico, VP for insurance operations at Jerry. Damico said that repair costs are still rising fast, but most claims-related costs that have driven insurers’ rate increases, including vehicle prices and parts and equipment, have fallen or flatlined in recent months. Prices of used cars and trucks are down 16% from their early 2022 peak.
“Today’s data aligns with what we’re hearing from carriers,” Damico said. “They’re starting to see some relief in the cost of claims, so they’re pausing rate increases and reassessing the situation, and in some cases looking to roll back a bit of those recent rate hikes.”
If you are looking to save money on your car costs, you could consider changing your auto insurance provider to get a lower monthly rate. Visit Credible to shop around and find your personalized premium.
FHFA ANNOUNCES HIGHER MORTGAGE LOAN LIMITS FOR 2025
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Finance
Why software stocks, 2026’s market dogs, have joined the rally
Published
2 weeks agoon
April 19, 2026

Cybersecurity and enterprise software stocks have been market dogs in 2026, with fears that AI will wipe out a wide range of companies in the enterprise space dominating the narrative. But they snapped a brutal losing streak this past week, joining in the broader market rally that saw all losses from the U.S.-Iran war regained by the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500.
Cybersecurity has been “a victim of some of the AI-related headlines,” Christian Magoon, Amplify ETFs CEO, said on this week’s “ETF Edge.”
It wasn’t just niche cybersecurity names. Take Microsoft, for example, which was recently down close to 20% for the year. Its shares surged last week by 13%.
A big driver of the pummeling in software stocks was a rotation within tech by investors to AI infrastructure and semiconductors and some other names in large-cap tech, Magoon said, and since cybersecurity stocks and ETFs are heavily weighted towards software companies, they were left behind even as those businesses continue to grow on a fundamental basis.
But Wall Street now has become more bullish with the stocks at lower levels. Brent Thill, Jefferies tech analyst, said last week that the worst may be over for software stocks. “I think that this concept that software is dead, and then Anthropic and OpenAI are going to kill the entire industry, is just over-exaggerated,” he said on CNBC’s “Money Movers” on Wednesday.
“Big Short” investor Michael Burry wrote in a Substack post on Wednesday that he is becoming bullish about software stocks after the recent selloff. “Software stocks remain interesting because of accelerated extreme declines last week arising from a reflexive positive feedback loop between falling software stocks and changes in the market for their bank debt,” he wrote.
The Global X Cybersecurity ETF (BUG), is down about 12% since the beginning of the year, with top holdings including Palo Alto Networks, Fortinet, Akamai Technologies and CrowdStrike. But BUG was up 12% last week. The First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR) is down 6% for the year, but up 9% in the past week.
Piper Sandler analyst Rob Owens reiterated an “overweight” rating on Palo Alto Networks which helped the stock pop 7% — it is now down roughly 6% on the year. Its peers saw similar moves, including CrowdStrike.
Performance of Global X cybersecurity ETF versus S&P 500 over past one-year period.
Magoon said expectations may have become too high in cybersecurity, and with a crowding effect among investors, solid results were not enough to to push stocks higher. But the down-and-then-back-up 2026 for the sector is also a reminder that when stocks fall sharply in a short period of time, opportunity may knock.
“Once you’re down over 10% in some of these subsectors, you start to see the contrarians start to say, ‘well, maybe I’ll take a look at this,'” Magoon said.
He said AI does add both opportunity and uncertainty to the cybersecurity equation, increasing demand but also introducing new competition. But he added, “I think the dip is good to buy in an AI-driven world,” specifically because the risks to companies may lead to more M&A in cyber names that benefits the stocks.
For now, investors may look for opportunity on the margins rather than rush back into beaten-up tech names. “I think investors are still going to remain underweight software,” Thill said.
But Magoon advises investors to at least take the reminder to keep an eye on niches in the market during pronounced downturns. “The best-performing are often the least bought and do the best over the next 12 months versus late-in-the-game piling on,” he said.
While that may have been a mindset that worked against the last investors into cybersecurity and enterprise software in mid-2025 when the negative sentiment started building, at least for now, it’s started working for the stocks in the sector again.
Meanwhile, this year’s biggest winner is also a good example of what can be an extended trade in either a bullish or bearish direction. Last year, institutional ownership of energy was at multi-year lows, Magoon said, referencing Bank of America data. “Reverse sentiment can be a great indicator,” he said.
But he cautioned that any selective buying of stocks that have dipped does have to contend with the risk that there is a potentially bigger drawdown in the market yet to come in 2026. That is because midterm election years historically have been marked by large drawdowns. “If you think it is bad right now, it could get a lot worse,” Magoon said. But he added that there’s a silver-lining in that data, too, for the patient investor. The market has posted very strong 12-month returns after midterm election drawdowns end. So, for investors with a longer-term time horizon and no need for short-term liquidity, Magoon said, “stick in there.”
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Finance
Violent downturns could test new ETF strategies, warns MFS Investment
Published
3 weeks agoon
April 17, 2026

New innovation in the exchange-traded fund industry could come at a cost to investors during extreme conditions.
According to MFS Investment Management’s Jamie Harrison, ETFs involved in increasingly complex derivatives and less transparent markets may be in uncharted territory when it comes to violent downturns.
“Those would be something that you’d want to keep an eye on as volatility ramps up,” the firm’s head of ETF capital markets told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this week. “As innovation continues to increase at a rapid pace within the ETF wrapper, [it’s] definitely something that we advise our clients to be really front-footed about… Lack of transparency could absolutely be an issue if we’re going to start seeing some deep sell-offs.”
His firm has been around since 1924 and is known for inventing the open-end mutual fund. Last year, ETF.com named MFS Investment Management as the best new ETF issuer.
“It’s important to do due diligence on the portfolio,” he said. “Having a firm that has deep partnerships, deep bench of subject matter experts that plays with the A-team in terms of the Street and liquidity providers available [are] super important.”
Liquidity as the real issue?
Harrison suggested the real issue is liquidity, particularly during a steep sell-off.
“We’ve all seen the news and the headlines around potential private credit ETFs. That picture becomes much more murky,” he added. “It’s up to advisors, to investors [and] to clients to really dig in and look under the hood and engage with their issuers.”
He noted investors will have to ask some tough questions.
“What does this look like in a 20% drawdown? How does this liquidity facility work? Am I going to be able to get in? Am I going to be able to get out? And if I’m able to get out, am I able to get out at a price that’s tight to NAV [net asset value], and what’s the infrastructure at your shop in terms of managing that consideration for me,” said Harrison.
Amplify ETFs’ Christian Magoon is also concerned about these newer ETF strategies could weather a monster drawdown. He listed private credit as a red flag.
“If your ETF owns private credit, I think it’s worth taking a look at, kind of what the standards are around liquidity and how that ETF is trading, because that should be a bit of a mismatch between the trading pace of ETFs and the underlying asset,” the firm’s CEO said in the same interview.
Magoon also highlighted potential issues surrounding equity-linked notes. The notes provide fixed income security while offering potentially higher returns linked to stocks or equity indexes.
“Those could potentially be in stress due to redemptions and the underlying credit risk. That’s another kind of unique derivative,” Magoon said. “I would very closely look at any ETF that has equity-linked notes should we get into a major drawdown or there be a contagion in private credit or something related to the banking system.”
Finance
Anthropic Mythos reveals ‘more vulnerabilities’ for cyberattacks
Published
3 weeks agoon
April 15, 2026
Jamie Dimon, chief executive officer of JPMorgan Chase & Co., right, departs the US Capitol in Washington, DC, US, on Wednesday, Feb. 25, 2026.
Graeme Sloan | Bloomberg | Getty Images
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said Tuesday that while artificial intelligence tools could eventually help companies defend themselves from cyberattacks, they are first making them more vulnerable.
Dimon said that JPMorgan was testing Anthropic’s latest model — the Mythos preview announced by the AI firm last week — as part of its broader effort to reap the benefits of AI while protecting against bad actors wielding the same technology.
“AI’s made it worse, it’s made it harder,” Dimon told analysts on the bank’s earnings call Tuesday morning. “It does create additional vulnerabilities, and maybe down the road, better ways to strengthen yourself too.”
When asked by a reporter about Mythos, Dimon seemed to refer to Anthropic’s warning that the model had already found thousands of vulnerabilities in corporate software.
“I think you read exactly what is it,” Dimon said. “It shows a lot more vulnerabilities need to be fixed.”
The remarks reveal how artificial intelligence, a technology welcomed by corporations as a productivity boon, has also morphed into a serious threat by giving bad actors new ways to hack into technology systems. Last week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent summoned bank CEOs to a meeting to discuss the risks posed by Mythos.
JPMorgan, the world’s largest bank by market cap, has for years invested heavily to stay ahead of threats, with dedicated teams and constant coordination with government agencies, Dimon said.
“We spend a lot of money. We’ve got top experts. We’re in constant contact with the government,” he said. “It’s a full-time job, and we’re doing it all the time.”
‘Attack mode’
Still, the CEO warned that risks extend beyond any single institution, given the interconnected nature of the financial system.
“That doesn’t mean everything that banks rely on is that well protected,” Dimon said. “Banks… are attached to exchanges and all these other things that create other layers of risk.”
JPMorgan Chief Financial Officer Jeremy Barnum said the industry has long been aware that AI cuts both ways in cybersecurity.
“These tools can make it easier to find vulnerabilities, but then also potentially be deployed by bad actors in attack mode,” Barnum said on the earnings call. Recent advances from Anthropic and others have simply intensified an existing trend, he said.
Dimon also said that while advanced AI tools are important, old-school cybersecurity practices remain essential.
“A lot of it is hygiene… how do you protect your data? How do you protect your networks, your routers, your hardware, changing your passcode?” he said. “Doing all those things right dramatically reduces the risk.”
Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon said Monday during an earnings call that his bank was testing Mythos, though he declined to comment further.
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