Investor confidence in Chinese earnings’ growth remains the missing ingredient to drive a sustained stock market rally in the world’s second-largest economy, already barraged by government stimulus measures and the overhang of U.S. tensions. “For Chinese equities to meaningfully outperform, we need to see the policy announcements result in an actual easing of deflationary pressures and a rebound in corporate earnings, both of which will take time,” Aaron Costello, head of Asia at Cambridge Associates, said in an email Thursday. The CSI 300 index dipped 1% last week, tumbling 2.4% on Friday alone, after Beijing reaffirmed plans for increasing the deficit next year and expanding economic support , but didn’t reveal details. China typically announces its GDP target and fiscal plans at a parliamentary meeting in March. Stocks are now almost 12% below the 52-week high reached in early October. “It is clear that China is setting the stage to increase stimulus in 2025, potentially to counteract any adverse trade policies from the incoming Trump administration,” Costello said. Cambridge Associates is neutral on Chinese stocks, wanting to see more evidence of a pickup in growth. Improving earnings Yet despite the broad pressure on the economy, earnings in specific industries are forecast to improve. Chinese medical device companies can see earnings widen next year, especially after the Ministry of Finance earlier this month set a draft of plans that would make it 20% cheaper for local governments to buy domestically produced products versus foreign ones, HSBC analysts said in a Dec. 10 report. While the public comment period closes in early January, implementation is unclear. “With recovery of China’s hospital procurement for medical equipment from September, we foresee a growth rebound for the China medical device sector in 2025,” the HSBC analysts said. Shanghai-traded United Imaging can see earnings grow 46% in 2025, reversing this year’s losses, they predict. Snibe, traded in the Shenzhen market, can see 19% earnings growth, with Mindray profits expected to climb 15%. HSBC rates all three stocks a buy. The new policy favoring domestic brands underscores China’s desire to reduce its reliance on exports to the U.S. and American-made high-tech products. The Biden administration has restricted Chinese companies from buying advanced semiconductors made in the U.S., while President-elect Donald Trump has vowed across-the-board, 10% tariffs on Chinese imports . But the exact nature of the next administration’s policy toward China is unclear. After ringing the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange on Thursday, Trump also told CNBC’s Jim Cramer that “we’re going to have a lot of talks with China. We have a good relationship with China.” Trump cast his previous position on China as overly harsh, while noting how talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping could help address U.S. concerns. Separately on Thursday, Trump’s incoming press secretary Karoline Leavitt told Fox News that the President-elect has invited Xi to the Jan. 20 inauguration. Beijing has yet to publicly respond. Limited upside Upside for the MSCI China Index is limited until foreign investors know the scale of Trump’s tariffs and sanctions, and see profit growth across China’s economy, the Macro Research Board said in a note Wednesday. For now, foreign investors are only interested in trading around potential China policy shifts, but ignoring improving fundamentals, such as how large internet platform companies are seeing “significant” improvement in future earnings, the report said. “The key signal for upgrading positions in Chinese stocks [from neutral] will be found in an improvement in bank earnings,” the MRB report said, noting that “the single most important indicator for upgrading China would therefore be a pickup in credit volumes.” Credit data for November released Friday missed the expectations of economists polled by Reuters, and Citigroup analysts pointed out that lower corporate demand was largely responsible. Official figures on November retail sales, industrial production and investment are due out on Monday. “As much as Beijing wants to stimulate more employment, home buying and consumer spending, [policymakers] also want to avoid encouraging high-debt sectors to take on more debt,” Paul Christopher, head of global investment strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, said in an email. “This dilemma is likely to mean more limited support than in the past.” “2024 provides a good example of what we think is to come,” Christopher said, referring to how Chinese stocks have whipsawed this year as forecasts of policy support rose and fell. Looking ahead to next year, Christopher said he still favors U.S. large-cap stocks over other asset classes. Those include smaller U.S. stocks and names listed overseas, he said, noting Wells Fargo “would use any bump higher in emerging market equities to reallocate to U.S. large-caps.” The S & P 500 is almost 27% higher in 2024, on pace for its second consecutive gain of more than 20%. In contrast, this year’s rally in Chinese stocks could snap multiple years of declines. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index is on track to break a four-year losing streak, posting a gain of more than 17% for the year so far. The Shanghai composite is up 14% year-to-date, after two straight years of losses. The MSCI China Index, which tracks stocks traded in both Hong Kong and the mainland, has held onto more than half of its gains since a surge of more than 35% fromthe lows in September to the October highs. Costello at Cambridge Associates pointed out in a 2025 outlook that a “market collapse is unlikely.” “Downside risks to China seem contained as monetary easing and actions taken to control local government debt risks should help to prevent further stress,” Costello said. — CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.
Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, testifies during the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee hearing titled Annual Oversight of Wall Street Firms, in the Hart Building on Dec. 6, 2023.
Tom Williams | Cq-roll Call, Inc. | Getty Images
With each passing day since President Donald Trump‘s sweeping tariff announcement last week, a growing sense of unease had begun to pervade Wall Street.
As stocks plunged and even the safe haven of U.S. Treasurys were selling off, investors, executives and analysts started to fret that a core assumption from the first Trump presidency may no longer apply.
Amid the market carnage, the world’s most powerful person showed that he had a greater tolerance for inflicting pain on investors than anyone had anticipated. Time after time, he and his deputies denied that the administration would back off from the highest American tariff regime in a century, sometimes inferring that Wall Street would have to suffer so that Main Street could thrive.
“It goes without saying that last week’s price action was shocking to see as the market has begun to rewrite completely its sense for what a second Trump presidency means for the economy,” said R. Scott Siefers, a Piper Sandler analyst, earlier this week.
So it came as a huge relief to investors when, minutes after 1 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Trump relented by rolling back the highest tariffs on most countries except China, sparking the biggest one-day stock rally for the S&P 500 since the depths of the 2008 financial crisis.
Despite a presidency in which Trump has tested the limits of executive power — bulldozing federal agencies and laying off thousands of government employees, for example — the episode shows that the market, and by proxy Wall Street statesmen like JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon who can explain its gyrations, are still guardrails on the administration.
Later Wednesday afternoon, Trump told reporters that he pivoted after seeing how markets were reacting — getting “yippy,” in his words — and took to heart Dimon’s warning in a morning TV appearance that the policy was pushing the U.S. economy into recession.
Dimon’s appearance in a Fox news interview was planned more than a month ago and wasn’t a last-minute decision meant to sway the president, according to a person with knowledge of the JPMorgan CEO’s schedule.
Bond vigilantes
Of particular concern to Trump and his advisors was the fear that his tariff policy could incite a global financial crisis after yields on U.S. government bonds jumped, according to the New York Times, which cited people with knowledge of the president’s thinking.
“The stock market, bond market and capital markets are, to a degree, a governor on the actions that are taken,” said Mike Mayo, the Wells Fargo bank analyst. “You were hearing about parts of the bond market that were under stress, trades that were blowing up. You push so hard, but you don’t want it to break.”
Typically, investors turn to Treasurys in times of uncertainty, but the sell-off indicated that institutional or sovereign players were dumping holdings, leading to higher borrowing costs for the government, businesses and consumers. That could’ve forced the Federal Reserve to intervene, as it has in previous crises, by slashing rates or acting as buyer of last resort for government bonds.
“The bond market was anticipating a real crisis,” Ed Yardeni, the veteran markets analyst, told CNBC’s Scott Wapner on Wednesday.
Yardeni said it was the “bond vigilantes” that got Trump’s attention; the term refers to the idea that investors can act as a type of enforcer on government behavior viewed as making it less likely they’ll get repaid.
Amid the market churn, Wall Street executives had reportedly worried that they didn’t have the influence they did under the first Trump administration, when ex-Goldman partners including Steven Mnuchin and Gary Cohn could be relied upon.
But this last week also showed investors that, in his mission to remake the global order of the past century, Trump is willing to take his adversarial approach with trading partners and the larger economy to the knife’s edge, which only invites more volatility.
‘Chaos discount’
Banks, closely watched for the central role they play in lending to corporations and consumers, entered the year with great enthusiasm after Trump’s election.
The setup was as promising as it had been in decades, according to Mayo and other analysts: A strengthening economy would help boost loan demand, while lower interest rates, deregulation and the return of deals activity including mergers and IPO listings would only add fuel to the fire.
Instead, by the last weekend, bank stocks were in a bear market, having given up all their gains since the election, on fears that Trump was steering the economy to recession. Amid the tumult, it’s likely that reports will show that deal-making slowed as corporate leaders adopt a wait-and-see attitude.
“The chaos discount, we call it,” said Brian Foran, an analyst at Truist bank.
Foran and other analysts said the Trump factor made it difficult to forecast whether the economy was heading for recession, which banks would be winners and losers in a trade war and, therefore, how much they should be worth.
Investors will next focus on JPMorgan, which kicks off the first-quarter earnings season on Friday. They will likely press Dimon and other CEOs about the health of the economy and how consumers and businesses are faring during tariff negotiations.
Wednesday’s reprieve could prove short lived. The day after Trump’s announcement and the historic rally, markets continued to decline. There remains a trade dispute between the world’s two largest economies, each with their own needs and vulnerabilities, and an unclear path to compromise. And universal tariffs of 10% are still in effect.
“We got close, and that’s a very uncomfortable place to be,” Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic advisor of Allianz, the Munich-based asset manager, said Wednesday on CNBC, referring to a crisis in which the Fed would need to step in.
“We don’t want to get there again,” he said. “The more you get to that point repeatedly, the higher the risk that you’re going to cross it.”
A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during afternoon trading on April 9, 2025 in New York.
Angela Weiss | Afp | Getty Images
A massive number of hedge fund short sellers rushed to close out their positions during Wednesday afternoon’s sudden surge in stocks, turning a stunning rally into one for the history books.
Traders — betting on share price declines — had piled on a record number of short bets against the U.S. stocks ahead of Wednesday as President Donald Trump initially rolled out steeper-than-expected tariffs.
In order to sell short, hedge funds borrow the security they’re betting against from a bank and sell it. Then as the security decreases in price from where they sold it, they buy it back more cheaply and return it to the bank, profiting from the difference.
But sometimes that can backfire.
As stocks soared on news of the tariff pause, hedge funds were forced to buy back their borrowed stocks rapidly in order to limit their losses, a Wall Street phenomenon known as a short squeeze. With this artificial buying force pushing it higher, the S&P 500 ended up with its third-biggest gain since World War II.
Coming into Wednesday, short positioning was almost twice as much as the size seen in the first quarter of 2020 amid the onset of the Covid pandemic, according to Bank of America. As funds ran to cover, a basket of the most shorted stocks surged by 12.5% Wednesday, according to Goldman Sachs, pulling off a larger jump than the S&P 500‘s 9.5% gain.
And a whopping 30 billion shares traded on U.S. exchanges during the session, marking the heaviest volume day on record, according to Nasdaq and FactSet data going back 18 years.
“You can’t catch a move. When you see someone short covering, the exit doors become so small because of these crowded trades,” said Jeff Kilburg, KKM Financial CEO and CIO. “We live in a world where there’s more and more twitchiness to the marketplace, there’s more and more paranoia.”
S&P 500
Of course, there were real buyers too. Long-only funds bought a record amount of tech stocks during the session, especially the last three hours of the day, according to data from Bank of America.
But traders credit the shorts running for cover for the magnitude of the move.
“The pain on the short side is palpable; the whipsaw we have witnessed the past few weeks is extreme,” Oppenheimer’s trading desk said in a note. “What we saw in tech on that rise was obviously covering but more so real buyers adding on to higher quality semis.”
Thin liquidity also played a role in Wednesday’s monster moves. The size of stock futures (CME E-Mini S&P 500 Futures) one can trade with the click of your mouse dropped to an all-time low of $2 million on Monday, according to Goldman Sachs data. Drastically thin markets tends to fuel outsized price swings.
Markets were pulling back Thursday as investors realized the economy is still in danger from super-high China tariffs and the uncertainty that daily negotiations with other countries will bring over the next three months.
There are still big short positions left in the market, traders said.
That could fuel things again, if the market starts to rally again.
“The desk view is that short covering is far from over,” Bank of America’s trading desk said in a note. “Our reasoning is that the market can’t de-risk a short in less than 3 hours which provided 20%+ SPX Index downside & major reduction in NET LEVERAGE over 7 seven weeks.”
“No shot it cleared in less than 3 hours,” Bank of America said.