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Biden’s $7.3 Trillion Budget Proposal Highlights Divide With Trump and GOP

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President Biden proposed a $7.3 trillion budget on Monday packed with tax increases on corporations and high earners, new spending on social programs and a wide range of efforts to combat high consumer costs like housing and college tuition.

The proposal includes only relatively small changes from the budget plan Mr. Biden submitted last year, which went nowhere in Congress, though it reiterates his call for lawmakers to spend about $100 billion to strengthen border security and deliver aid to Israel and Ukraine.

Most of the new spending and tax increases included in the fiscal year 2025 budget again stand almost no chance of becoming law this year, given that Republicans control the House and roundly oppose Mr. Biden’s economic agenda. Last week, House Republicans passed a budget proposal outlining their priorities, which are far afield from what Democrats have called for.

Instead, the document will serve as a draft of Mr. Biden’s policy platform as he seeks re-election in November, along with a series of contrasts intended to draw a distinction with his presumptive Republican opponent, former President Donald J. Trump.

Mr. Biden has sought to reclaim strength on economic issues with voters who have given him low marks amid elevated inflation. This budget aims to portray him as a champion of increased government aid for workers, parents, manufacturers, retirees and students, as well as the fight against climate change.

Speaking in New Hampshire on Monday, Mr. Biden heralded the budget as a way to raise revenue to pay for his priorities by raising taxes on the wealthiest Americans and big corporations.

“I’m not anti-corporation,” he said. “I’m a capitalist, man. Make all the money you want. Just begin to pay your fair share in taxes.”

The budget proposes about $5 trillion in new taxes on corporations and the wealthy over a decade. Administration officials said Monday that those increases would be split equally between corporations and the nation’s highest earners, and that Americans earning less than $400,000 a year would enjoy tax cuts totaling $750 billion under their plans.

“We can do all of our investments by asking those in the top 1 and 2 percent to pay more into the system,” Shalanda Young, the director of the White House budget office, told reporters.

The president has already begun trying to portray Mr. Trump as the opposite: a supporter of further tax cuts for the well-off. “Do you really think the wealthy and big corporations need another $2 trillion tax break?” Mr. Biden asked in New Hampshire, referencing Mr. Trump — but not by name. “Because that’s what he wants to do.”

Speaker Mike Johnson and other members of House Republican leadership criticized Mr. Biden in a statement released Monday afternoon. “The price tag of President Biden’s proposed budget is yet another glaring reminder of this administration’s insatiable appetite for reckless spending and the Democrats’ disregard for fiscal responsibility,” they said.

Polls have found that Americans are dissatisfied with Mr. Biden’s handling of the economy and favor Mr. Trump’s approach to economic issues. But the president has been unwavering in his core economic policy strategy, and the budget shows that he is not deviating from that plan.

Mr. Biden’s budget proposes about $3 trillion in new measures to reduce the federal deficit over the next decade. That is in line with his budget proposal last year, which narrowed deficits by raising taxes on businesses and the rich and by allowing the government to bargain more aggressively with pharmaceutical companies to reduce spending on prescription drugs.

The budget again calls for raising the corporate tax rate to 28 percent from 21 percent, the level Mr. Trump set in the tax bill he signed in late 2017. It increases a new minimum tax on large corporations and quadruples a tax on stock buybacks, among other efforts to raise more revenue from companies and individuals who make more than $400,000 a year.

Those savings would build on discretionary spending limits that Mr. Biden and congressional Republicans agreed on last year to resolve a standoff over raising the nation’s borrowing limit. They still would leave the nation with historically high budget deficits: about $1.6 trillion a year on average over the next decade, by administration forecasts. As a share of the economy, deficits would decline in that time — but total government debt as a share of the economy would tick upward.

House Republicans released a budget last week that seeks to reduce deficits much faster — balancing the budget by the end of the decade. Their savings relied on economic growth forecasts that are well above mainstream forecasters’ expectations, along with steep and often unspecified spending cuts.

The nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget called the Republican plan “unrealistic in its assumptions and outcomes.” On Monday, the group called Mr. Biden’s proposed deficit reduction “a welcome start, but a too timid one.”

Mr. Biden and his aides have repeatedly said they believed the projected deficits in his budgets would not hurt the economy. Ms. Young and Jared Bernstein, who leads the White House Council of Economic Advisers, repeated that position on Monday, even after acknowledging that the budget now forecasts higher government borrowing costs over the next decade than previous budgets have.

Instead of turning toward more aggressive deficit reduction, as prior Democratic presidents have done after losing control of a chamber of Congress, Mr. Biden has leaned into the need for new spending programs and targeted tax incentives to bolster growth and the middle class.

The new proposal continues that trend. It would create a national program of paid leave for workers. It would reinstate an expanded child tax credit that Mr. Biden created temporarily in his $1.9 trillion economic stimulus law in 2021. That credit helped reduce child poverty significantly over the span of a year before expiring. That reinstatement would last for only a year, but administration officials said Monday that they hope to make it permanent as part of a broader debate on taxes in 2025.

The budget also includes new efforts to help Americans struggling with high costs. That issue has dogged Mr. Biden with voters since inflation soared on his watch to its highest levels in four decades, even as price increases have cooled over the past year. Mr. Biden previewed many of those efforts in his State of the Union speech last week, including new tax credits for certain home buyers and expanded assistance for people to buy health insurance through the Affordable Care Act.

Mr. Biden also called for new efforts to improve the solvency of Social Security and Medicare. In the budget, he opposed benefit cuts for the programs and any additional contributions from workers earning less than $400,000 a year.

On Monday, Ms. Young implied that Mr. Biden would look to shore up Social Security in part by targeting a cap on income subject to the payroll taxes that feed the program — a move he has specifically endorsed for Medicare. She said Mr. Biden would improve its solvency “by asking high-income Americans to pay their fair share. If you make a million dollars in this country, you are done paying your Social Security taxes sometime in February.”

In another key area, Mr. Biden’s proposal punts on key details: what to do about the provisions of the 2017 Republican tax law, including tax cuts for individuals, that expire in 2025. The budget calls that expiration, which was written into the law in order to hold down its estimated cost, “fiscally reckless.” But it does not specify how Mr. Biden would handle the expirations if he wins a second term.

Instead, the budget says Mr. Biden would seek to extend tax breaks for people earning less than $400,000 a year, offset with “additional reforms to ensure that wealthy people and big corporations pay their fair share.”

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Economics

Will Elon Musk’s cash splash pay off in Wisconsin?

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TO GET A sense of what the Republican Party thinks of the electoral value of Elon Musk, listen to what Brad Schimel, a conservative candidate for the Supreme Court of Wisconsin, has to say about the billionaire. At an event on March 29th at an airsoft range (a more serious version of paintball) just outside Kenosha, five speakers, including Mr Schimel, spoke for over an hour about the importance of the election to the Republican cause. Mr Musk’s political action committees (PACs) have poured over $20m into the race, far more than any other donor’s. But over the course of the event, his name came up precisely zero times.

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Economics

German inflation, March 2025

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Customers shop for fresh fruits and vegetables in a supermarket in Munich, Germany, on March 8, 2025.

Michael Nguyen | Nurphoto | Getty Images

German inflation came in at a lower-than-expected 2.3% in March, preliminary data from the country’s statistics office Destatis showed Monday.

It compares to February’s 2.6% print, which was revised lower from a preliminary reading, and a poll of Reuters economists who had been expecting inflation to come in at 2.4% The print is harmonized across the euro area for comparability. 

On a monthly basis, harmonized inflation rose 0.4%. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy costs, came in at 2.5%, below February’s 2.7% reading.

Meanwhile services inflation, which had long been sticky, also eased to 3.4% in March, from 3.8% in the previous month.

The data comes at a critical time for the German economy as U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs loom and fiscal and economic policy shifts at home could be imminent.

Trade is a key pillar for the German economy, making it more vulnerable to the uncertainty and quickly changing developments currently dominating global trade policy. A slew of levies from the U.S. are set to come into force this week, including 25% tariffs on imported cars — a sector that is key to Germany’s economy. The country’s political leaders and car industry heavyweights have slammed Trump’s plans.

Meanwhile Germany’s political parties are working to establish a new coalition government following the results of the February 2025 federal election. Negotiations are underway between the Christian Democratic Union, alongside its sister party the Christian Social Union, and the Social Democratic Union.

While various points of contention appear to remain between the parties, their talks have already yielded some results. Earlier this month, Germany’s lawmakers voted in favor of a major fiscal package, which included amendments to long-standing debt rules to allow for higher defense spending and a 500-billion-euro ($541 billion) infrastructure fund.

This is a breaking news story, please check back for updates.

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Economics

First-quarter GDP growth will be just 0.3% as tariffs stoke stagflation conditions, says CNBC survey

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U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to members of the media aboard Air Force One before landing in West Palm Beach, Florida, U.S., March 28, 2025. 

Kevin Lamarque | Reuters

Policy uncertainty and new sweeping tariffs from the Trump administration are combining to create a stagflationary outlook for the U.S. economy in the latest CNBC Rapid Update.

The Rapid Update, averaging forecasts from 14 economists for GDP and inflation, sees first quarter growth registering an anemic 0.3% compared with the 2.3% reported in the fourth quarter of 2024. It would be the weakest growth since 2022 as the economy emerged from the pandemic.

Core PCE inflation, meanwhile, the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator, will remain stuck at around 2.9% for most of the year before resuming its decline in the fourth quarter.

Behind the dour GDP forecasts is new evidence that the decline in consumer and business sentiment is showing up in real economic activity. The Commerce Department on Friday reported that real, or inflation-adjusted consumer spending in February rose just 0.1%, after a decline of -0.6% in January. Action Economics dropped its outlook for spending growth to just 0.2% in this quarter from 4% in the fourth quarter.

“Signs of slowing in hard activity data are becoming more convincing, following an earlier worsening in sentiment,” wrote Barclays over the weekend.

Another factor: a surge of imports (which subtract from GDP) that appear to have poured into the U.S. ahead of tariffs.

The good news is the import effect should abate and only two of the 12 economists surveyed see negative growth in Q1. None forecast consecutive quarters of economic contraction. Oxford Economics, which has the lowest Q1 estimate at -1.6%, expects a continued drag from imports but sees second quarter GDP rebounding to 1.9%, because those imports will eventually end up boosting growth when they are counted in inventory or sales measures.

Recession risks rising

On average, most economists forecast a gradual rebound, with second quarter GDP averaging 1.4%, third quarter at 1.6% and the final quarter of the year rising to 2%.

The danger is an economy with anemic growth of just 0.3% could easily slip into negative territory. And, with new tariffs set to come this week, not everyone is so sure about a rebound.

“While our baseline doesn’t show a decline in real GDP, given the mounting global trade war and DOGE cuts to jobs and funding, there is a good chance GDP will decline in the first and even the second quarters of this year,” said Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics. “And a recession will be likely if the president doesn’t begin backtracking on the tariffs by the third quarter.”

Moody’s looks for anemic Q1 growth of just 0.4% that rebounds to 1.6% by year end, which is still modestly below trend.

Stubborn inflation will complicate the Fed’s ability to respond to flagging growth. Core PCE is expected at 2.8% this quarter, rising to 3% next quarter and staying roughly at that level until in drops to 2.6% a year from now.

While the market looks to be banking on rate cuts, the Fed could find them difficult to justify until inflation begins falling more convincingly at the end of the year.

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