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Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman taught us to make better money decisions

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My grandmother, Big Mama, was masterful at making financial decisions. She didn’t let emotion dictate her behavior.

I once asked why we had only a washing machine and no dryer.

“That’s why God created sunlight,” she said.

My grandmother taught me that money is often not about math. She understood that you have to fight instincts that can lead to doing things not in your best interest.

If Big Mama couldn’t afford something, no pleading or peer pressure could change her mind. Debt was to be avoided as much as possible. Living above your means was illogical.

In a small rowhouse in Baltimore with just a high school education, my grandmother was to me what Daniel Kahneman was to behavioral economicsa world he helped pioneer.

Kahneman, who died this week at 90, was a psychologist whose work “integrated insights from psychological research into economic science, especially concerning human judgment and decision-making under uncertainty,” according to the citation for the 2002 Nobel Prize in economic science he shared with economist Vernon Smith.

Kahneman and his research collaborator, Amos Tversky, did groundbreaking work upending the notion that economic decisions are governed by logic. Tversky died in 1996, and the Nobel is never awarded posthumously.

In his 2011 book, “Thinking, Fast and Slow,” Kahneman wrote that his aim was “to present a view of how the mind works that draws on recent developments in cognitive and social psychology.”

We are — because of our biases — often irrational beings.

I regularly work with people trying to recover from financial disasters brought on by poor decision-making. They buy a $50,000 vehicle because they don’t want to pay $1,500 to repair their car, which, when fixed, will last for years. Or they have $20,000 in a low-yield savings account but are carrying $10,000 in credit card debt at a 20 percent interest rate.

One key to a better financial life and security is having a system to guide your decision-making.

Even if you are not a student of Kahneman, here are six steps to better decision-making.

What are you trying to accomplish? State it clearly.

This first step in the decision-making process may seem obvious, but it often isn’t. People let their emotions lead rather than examine a choice based on economics.

My husband and I teach a marriage and money class at our church. During one session, a couple wanted our opinion on their decision to upgrade to a bigger home. They had determined they needed more space.

It turns out that the wife was pushing for the purchase because she wanted more room for her clothes and shoes. They were already deeply in debt, and taking on a larger mortgage would not have been in their best interest.

They were about to make an irrational decision because the wife had unresolved issues in her life that led to her overspending. They stayed put.

2. What’s the need or want behind the decision?

This is the why question. For example, “Should I replace my clunker of a car?” Be honest with yourself. Is it truly a need or a want?

Need: You are frequently stranded without warning because of various mechanical issues.

Want: The repair expenses you complain about pale in comparison to the cost of buying a new vehicle. You’re just tired of driving your hoopty. So, you rationalize that it must be time to purchase a new car.

3. What are your non-negotiables?

What are you not willing to compromise on if you decide to act on this decision? For example, the cost must be within the budget. The house must be near a good school district. The car must be electric/hybrid or at least fuel-efficient.

4. Identify and assess all alternatives

Have you carefully considered other options? Don’t rule anything out before you’ve evaluated all possible choices. Once you’ve identified the alternatives, scrutinize each one.

Yes, your older car is increasingly in need of repairs. But if you can plan the repairs so you aren’t stranded, it’s still probably cheaper than buying another car. Is public transportation an option? Do you absolutely need a car?

5. What’s the cost, and can you afford it?

Calculate the price of each option. Don’t just focus on the short-term outlay. Are there other costs you should consider?

How will the decision affect your relationships or your mental/physical health?

What is the opportunity cost? This refers to a benefit you miss out on when making a particular decision. For example, will this decision impact your ability to build wealth?

If you purchase a car with a $1,000 monthly payment, can you still build an emergency fund or save for retirement?

Once you’ve identified the alternatives, sift through each one.

If you want more personal finance advice that’s timeless, order your copy of Michelle Singletary’s Money Milestones.

Slow down your decision-making, but also be careful of “analysis paralysis.”

Overthinking the decision or succumbing to the fear of making a wrong choice can prevent you from taking a course of action.

If you can say with certainty that you have followed the previous five steps, then go ahead and move forward with confidence, knowing you did all that you could do. Then, don’t look back with regret.

Kahneman, the grandfather of behavioral economics, asked in his book, “How can we improve judgments and decisions?”

His answer: “Little can be achieved without a considerable investment of effort.”

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Personal Finance

How to review your insurance policy

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PUNTA GORDA – OCTOBER 10: In this aerial view, a person walks through flood waters that inundated a neighborhood after Hurricane Milton came ashore on October 10, 2024, in Punta Gorda, Florida. The storm made landfall as a Category 3 hurricane in the Siesta Key area of Florida, causing damage and flooding throughout Central Florida. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

Joe Raedle | Getty Images News | Getty Images

It’s officially hurricane season, and early forecasts indicate it’s poised to be an active one.

Now is the time to take a look at your homeowners insurance policy to ensure you have enough and the right kinds of coverage, experts say — and make any necessary changes if you don’t.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts a 60% chance of “above-normal” Atlantic hurricane activity during this year’s season, which spans from June 1 to November 30.

The agency forecasts 13 to 19 named storms with winds of 39 mph or higher. Six to 10 of those could become hurricanes, including three to five major hurricanes of Category 3, 4, or 5.

You should pay close attention to your insurance policies.

Charles Nyce

risk management and insurance professor at Florida State University

Hurricanes can cost billions of dollars worth of damages. Experts at AccuWeather estimate that last year’s hurricane season cost $500 billion in total property damage and economic loss, making the season “one of the most devastating and expensive ever recorded.”

“Take proactive steps now to make a plan and gather supplies to ensure you’re ready before a storm threatens,” Ken Graham, NOAA’s national weather service director, said in the agency’s report.

Part of your checklist should include reviewing your insurance policies and what coverage you have, according to Charles Nyce, a risk management and insurance professor at Florida State University. 

“Besides being ready physically by having your radio, your batteries, your water … you should pay close attention to your insurance policies,” said Nyce.

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You want to know four key things: the value of property at risk, how much a loss could cost you, whether you’re protected in the event of flooding and if you have enough money set aside in case of emergencies, he said.

Bob Passmore, the department vice president of personal lines at the American Property Casualty Insurance Association, agreed: “It’s really important to review your policy at least annually, and this is a good time to do it.”

Insurers often suspend policy changes and pause issuing new policies when there’s a storm bearing down. So acting now helps ensure you have the right coverage before there’s an urgent need.

Here are three things to consider about your home insurance policy going into hurricane season, according to experts.

1. Review your policy limits

2. Check your deductibles

Take a look at your deductibles, or the amount you have to pay out of pocket upfront if you file a claim, experts say.

For instance, if you have a $1,000 deductible on your policy and submit a claim for $8,000 of storm coverage, your insurer will pay $7,000 toward the cost of repairs, according to a report by NerdWallet. You’re responsible for the remaining $1,000.

A common way to lower your policy premium is by increasing your deductibles, Passmore said. 

Raising your deductible from $1,000 to $2,500 can save you an average 12% on your premium, per NerdWallet’s research.

But if you do that, make sure you have the cash on hand to absorb the cost after a loss, Passmore said.

Why the U.S. has a home insurance crisis

Don’t stop at your standard policy deductible. Look over hazard-specific provisions such as a wind deductible, which is likely to kick in for hurricane damage.

Wind deductibles are an out-of-pocket cost that is usually a percentage of the value of your policy, said Nyce. As a result, they can be more expensive than your standard deductible, he said. 

If a homeowner opted for a 2% deductible on a $500,000 house, their out-of-pocket costs for wind damages can go up to $10,000, he said.

“I would be very cautious about picking larger deductibles for wind,” he said.

3. Assess if you need flood insurance

Floods are usually not covered by a homeowners insurance policy. If you haven’t yet, consider buying a separate flood insurance policy through the National Flood Insurance Program by the Federal Emergency Management Agency or through the private market, experts say. 

It can be worth it whether you live in a flood-prone area or not: Flooding causes 90% of disaster damage every year in the U.S., according to FEMA.

In 2024, Hurricane Helene caused massive flooding in mountainous areas like Asheville in Buncombe County, North Carolina. Less than 1% of households there were covered by the NFIP, according to a recent report by the Swiss Re Institute. 

If you decide to get flood insurance with the NFIP, don’t buy it at the last minute, Nyce said. There’s usually a 30-day waiting period before the new policy goes into effect. 

“You can’t just buy it when you think you’re going to need it like 24, 48 or 72 hours before the storm makes landfall,” Nyce said. “Buy it now before the storms start to form.” 

Make sure you understand what’s protected under the policy. The NFIP typically covers up to $250,000 in damages to a residential property and up to $100,000 on the contents, said Loretta Worters, a spokeswoman for the Insurance Information Institute.

If you expect more severe damage to your house, ask an insurance agent about excess flood insurance, Nyce said.

Such flood insurance policies are written by private insurers that cover losses over and above what’s covered by the NFIP, he said.

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Average 401(k) savings rate hits a record high. See if you’re on track

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Seksan Mongkhonkhamsao | Moment | Getty Images

The average 401(k) plan savings rate recently notched a new record high — and the percentage is nearing a widely-used rule of thumb.

During the first quarter of 2025, the 401(k) savings rate, including employee and company contributions, jumped to 14.3%, according to Fidelity’s quarterly analysis of 25,300 corporate plans with 24.4 million participants.

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Despite economic uncertainty, “we definitely saw a lot of positive behaviors continue into Q1,” said Mike Shamrell, vice president of thought leadership for Fidelity’s Workplace Investing. 

The report found that employees deferred a milestone 9.5% into 401(k) plans during the first quarter, and companies contributed 4.8%. The combined 14.3% rate is the closest it’s ever been to Fidelity’s recommended 15% savings target.    

Two-thirds of increased employee deferrals during the first quarter came from “auto-escalations,” which automatically boost savings rates over time, usually in tandem with salary increases, Shamrell said.

You should aim to save at least 15% of pre-tax income each year, including company deposits, to maintain your current lifestyle in retirement, according to Fidelity. This assumes you save continuously from ages 25 to 67.

But the exact right percentage for each individual hinges on several things, such as your existing nest egg, planned retirement date, pensions and other factors, experts say.

“There’s no magic rate of savings,” because everyone spends and saves differently, said certified financial planner Larry Luxenberg, founder of Lexington Avenue Capital Management in New City, New York. “That’s the case before and after retirement.”

There’s no magic rate of savings.

Larry Luxenberg

Founder of Lexington Avenue Capital Management

Don’t miss ‘free money’ from your employer

If you can’t reach the 15% retirement savings benchmark, Shamrell suggests deferring at least enough to get your employer’s full 401(k) matching contribution.

Most companies will match a percentage of your 401(k) deferrals up to a certain limit. These deposits could also be subject to a “vesting schedule,” which determines your ownership based on the length of time you’ve been with your employer.

Still, “this probably [is] the closest thing a lot of people are going to get to free money in their life,” he said.

The most popular 401(k) match formula — used by 48% of companies on Fidelity’s platform — is 100% for the first 3% an employee contributes, and 50% for the next 2%.

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Average 401(k) balances fall due to market volatility, Fidelity says

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A few months of market swings have taken a toll on retirement savers.

The average 401(k) balance fell 3% in the first quarter of 2025 to $127,100, according to a new report by Fidelity Investments, the nation’s largest provider of 401(k) plans.

The average individual retirement account balance also sank 4% from the previous quarter to $121,983, the financial services firm found. Still, both 401(k) and IRA balances were up year over year.

The majority of retirement savers continue to contribute, Fidelity said. The average 401(k) contribution rate, including employer and employee contributions, increased to 14.3%, just shy of Fidelity’s suggested savings rate of 15%.

“Although the first quarter of 2025 posed challenges for retirement savers, it’s encouraging to see people take a continuous savings approach which focuses on their long-term retirement goals,” Sharon Brovelli, president of workplace investing at Fidelity Investments, said in a statement. “This approach will help individuals weather any type of market turmoil and stay on track.”

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U.S. markets have been under pressure ever since the White House first announced country-specific tariffs on April 2.

Since then, ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and European Union as well as China, largely due to President Donald Trump‘s on-again, off-again negotiations, caused some of the worst trading days for the S&P 500 since the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic.

However, more recently, markets largely rebounded from earlier losses. As of Wednesday morning, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was roughly flat year-to-date, while the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 were up around 1% in 2025.

‘Have a long-term strategy’

“It’s important to not get too unnerved by market swings,” said Mike Shamrell, Fidelity’s vice president of thought leadership.

Even for those nearing retirement age, those savings should have a time horizon of at least 10 to 20 years, he said, which means it’s better to “have a long-term strategy and not a short-term reaction.”

Intervening, or trying to time the market, is almost always a bad idea, said Gil Baumgarten, CEO and founder of Segment Wealth Management in Houston.

“People lose sight of the long-term benefits of investing in volatile assets, they stay focused on short-term market movements, and had they stayed put, the market would have corrected itself,” he said. “The math is so compelling to look past all that and let the stock market work itself out.”

For example, the 10 best trading days by percentage gain for the S&P 500 over the past three decades all occurred during recessions, often in close proximity to the worst days, according to a Wells Fargo analysis published last year.

And, although stocks go up and down, the S&P 500 index has an average annualized return of more than 10% over the past few decades. In fact, since 1950, the S&P has delivered positive returns 77% of the time, according to CNBC’s analysis.

“Really, you should just be betting on equities rising over time,” Baumgarten said.

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