Finance
Fed wants more confidence that inflation is moving toward 2% target, meeting minutes indicate
Federal Reserve officials at their March meeting expressed concern that inflation wasn’t moving lower quickly enough, though they still expected to cut interest rates at some point this year.
At a meeting in which the Federal Open Market Committee again voted to hold short-term borrowing rates steady, policymakers also showed misgivings that inflation, while easing, wasn’t doing so in a convincing enough fashion. The Fed currently targets its benchmark rate between 5.25%-5.5%
As such, FOMC members voted to keep language in the post-meeting statement that they wouldn’t be cutting rates until they “gained greater confidence” that inflation was on a steady path back to the central bank’s 2% annual target.
“Participants generally noted their uncertainty about the persistence of high inflation and expressed the view that recent data had not increased their confidence that inflation was moving sustainably down to 2 percent,” the minutes said.
In what apparently was a lengthy discussion about inflation at the meeting, officials said geopolitical turmoil and rising energy prices remain risks that could push inflation higher. They also cited the potential that looser policy could add to price pressures.
On the downside, they cited a more balanced labor market, enhanced technology along with economic weakness in China and a deteriorating commercial real estate market.
U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell holds a press conference following a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on interest rate policy in Washington, U.S., March 20, 2024.
Elizabeth Frantz | Reuters
They also discussed higher-than-expected inflation readings in January and February. Chair Jerome Powell said it’s possible the two months’ readings were caused by seasonal issues, though he added it’s hard to tell at this point. There were members at the meeting who disagreed.
“Some participants noted that the recent increases in inflation had been relatively broad based and therefore should not be discounted as merely statistical aberrations,” the minutes stated.
That part of the discussion was partly relevant considering the release came the same day that the Fed received more bad news on inflation.
CPI validates their concern
The consumer price index, a popular inflation gauge though not the one the Fed most closely focuses on, showed a 12-month rate of 3.5% in March. That was both above market expectations and represented an increase of 0.3 percentage point from February, giving rise to the idea that hot readings to start the year may not have been an aberration.
Following the CPI release, traders in the fed funds futures market recalibrated their expectations. Market pricing now implies the first rate cut to come in September, for a total of just two this year. Previous to the release, the odds were in favor of the first reduction coming in June, with three total, in line with the “dot plot” projections released after the March meeting.
The discussion at the meeting indicated that “almost all participants judged that it would be appropriate to move policy to a less restrictive stance at some point this year if the economy evolved broadly as they expected,” the minutes said. “In support of this view, they noted that the disinflation process was continuing along a path that was generally expected to be somewhat uneven.”
In other action at the meeting, officials discussed the possibility of ending the balance sheet reduction. The Fed has shaved about $1.5 trillion off its holdings of Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities by allowing up to $95 billion in proceeds from maturing bonds to roll off each month rather than reinvesting them.
There were no decisions made or indications about how the easing of what has become known as “quantitative tightening” will happen, though the minutes said the roll-off would be cut by “roughly half” from its current pace and the process should start “fairly soon.” Most market economists expect the process to begin in the next month or two.
The minutes noted that members believe a “cautious” approach should be taken.
Rates were cut by a quarter of a percentage point. (iStock )
The Federal Reserve just cut interest rates one more time this year. In their recent meeting, the Fed decided to cut rates by a quarter of a percentage point, dropping rates to 4.25% to 4.5%. This move was largely expected by economists.
The Fed cited indicators of an expanding economy and an easing labor market after its other rate cuts. This is the third time rates have been cut this year, but economists don’t expect as many cuts in 2025.
“The median member now expects that there will only be two cuts in 2025 and that the federal funds target will be 3% in the long run,” MBA Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni said in a statement. “MBA forecasts that the federal funds rate will only drop to 3.75% this cycle.”
The unemployment rate also remains low, and inflation is making slow but steady progress towards the committee’s 2% goal, both factors that created a bottleneck in the final decision to cut rates.
“While the unemployment rate has increased over the past year, and inflation has trended down, in recent months, inflation has plateaued,” Fratantoni said. “It was not surprising to see a dissent at this meeting, with one member voting to keep rates steady.”
With the latest rate cut, The Federal Reserve hopes to inch closer to their inflation growth and ease the unemployment rate.
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INFLATION SEES THE LOWEST ANNUAL RISE SINCE 2021
Home sales likely to increase in 2025
The housing market has faced a roller coaster of a year, but certain aspects are expected to raise home sales in 2025. Real estate experts predict a slow thaw for mortgage rates, giving prospective buyers who have been priced out of the market in recent years more wiggle room.
Many housing market measures are trending closer to historical norms, showing signs of an improved market in the new year. Listings are still lower than before the pandemic, but there are significantly more than in March, when there was a 25% deficit, according to Zillow.
Buyers shouldn’t expect an entirely smooth path when buying in 2025, however. For many, 2025 looks eerily similar to the volatile market of 2024.
“There’s a strong sense of déjà vu on tap for 2025. We are once again expecting mortgage rates to get better gradually, and opportunities for buyers should follow, but be prepared for plenty of bumps on that path,” Zillow Chief Economist Skylar Olsen said.
Shoppers looking to move in the slower winter months have an advantage. Sellers who have been waiting for rates to drop may be looking to unload their homes while interest rates are on the decline.
“Those shopping this winter have plenty of time to choose and a relatively strong position in negotiations,” Olsen said.
If you’re looking to purchase a home, consider visiting Credible to find the best mortgage rate for your financial situation.
THE US ADDED 818,000 FEWER JOBS THIS YEAR THAN ORIGINALLY ESTIMATED
Mortgage rates and home prices expected to fluctuate over the next year
More listings may be on the horizon, but buyers shouldn’t expect rock bottom mortgage rates any time soon. Prices also aren’t set to drop just yet. Prices are expected to grow by 3.7%, Realtor.com recently reported.
Mortgage rates are also expected to remain in the 6% range, with fluctuations over the year, much like 2024. Due to these small improvements, single family home listings are expected to grow by nearly 14%, according to Realtor.com.
Sellers in certain highly desirable areas will still hold the power in 2025. Inventory is improving, but it’s still limited compared to years past. This gives sellers the upper hand when negotiating prices.
How the newest presidential administration will factor in the housing market recovery process is difficult to predict, but there’s a potential for a “Trump Bump”, as Realtor.com calls it.
“While President-elect Trump can work quickly with his administration to implement some regulatory changes, other policies that will affect housing, such as tax changes and broad deregulation, require the cooperation of other branches and levels of government,” Realtor.com Chief Economist Danielle Hale said.
“The size and direction of a Trump bump will depend on what campaign proposals ultimately become policy and when,” Hale said. “For now, we expect a gradual improvement in housing market dynamics powered by broader economic factors. The new administration’s policies have the potential to enhance or hamper the housing recovery, and the details will matter.”
If you think you’re ready to shop around for a home loan, use Credible to help you easily compare interest rates from multiple lenders in minutes.
FHFA ANNOUNCES HIGHER MORTGAGE LOAN LIMITS FOR 2025
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A television station broadcasts the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate cut on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, US, on Wednesday, Dec. 18, 2024.
Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Wall Street’s fear gauge — the VIX — spiked by the second biggest percentage in its history on Wednesday, after the Federal Reserve jolted the stock market by saying it would dial back its rate-cutting campaign.
The CBOE Volatility Index surged 74% to close at 27.62, up from around 15 earlier in the day. That surge is the second-greatest in history, behind a 115% leap to above the 37 handle back in February 2018 when there was a blow-up in funds tracking the volatility index.
Wednesday’s move comes after the central bank said it will likely lower interest rates just twice next year, down from the four cuts it projected back in September, alarming investors who wanted low rates to keep fueling the bull market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled by 1,100 points to its 10th straight loss.
Typically, a value greater than 20 in the VIX indicates a higher level of fear in the market. However, for most of this year, the VIX had been suppressed below that level, worrying investors who believed the market had gotten overly complacent.
The VIX is calculated based on the prices of put and call options on the S&P 500. A spike could indicate a rush by investors to purchase put options for protection in a decline.
CBOE Volatility Index, 5 days
Still, there have been one other significant surge in the VIX in 2024. The third-biggest surge in the VIX in history occurred in Aug. 5, 2024, when fears of a U.S. recession, and a major unwind in the yen carry trade, spurred a roughly 65% increase in the VIX to close above 38. On an intraday basis, the VIX briefly topped 65 that day.
On Thursday, the VIX was last floating just above the 20 handle, down more than 25% from the prior day.
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