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ECB holds interest rates, gives strong signal that cuts are on the way

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Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank (ECB), at a rates decision news conference in Frankfurt, Germany, on Thursday, March 7, 2024. 

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The European Central Bank on Thursday held interest rates steady for a fifth straight meeting and gave its clearest signal yet of an upcoming rate cut, despite uncertainty over the U.S. Federal Reserve’s next moves.

“If the Governing Council’s updated assessment of the inflation outlook, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission were to further increase its confidence that inflation is converging to the target in a sustained manner, it would be appropriate to reduce the current level of monetary policy restriction,” it said in a statement.

In a news conference after the announcement, ECB President Christine Lagarde said this “important” new sentence was a “loud and clear indication” of the bank’s current sentiment.

The ECB made no direct reference to loosening monetary policy in its previous communiques.

The central bank for the 20 countries that share the euro currency hiked its key rate to a record 4% in September. It has left this rate unchanged at every gathering since.

Policymakers and economists have zeroed in on June as the month when rates could start to be reduced, after the ECB trimmed its medium-term inflation forecast. Price rises in the euro zone have since cooled more than expected in March.

June will also be the first month when policymakers will have a full set of data on first-quarter wage negotiations — an area of concern for potential inflationary effects.

The ECB on Thursday said incoming information had “broadly confirmed” its medium-term outlook, with falling inflation led by lower food and goods.

Market pricing suggests a 25 basis point cut in June, according to LSEG data.

“For a while now, the ECB has essentially pre-committed to a June cut. There is a high bar for this not to be delivered. But there is a wide range of possible outcomes in the subsequent months, depending on further progress with disinflation. So far, the data is moving in the doves’ favour,” said Hussain Mehdi, director of investment strategy at HSBC Asset Management, in a note.

Next Fed steps

In the U.S., expectations for a summer rate cut from the Federal Reserve were significantly curtailed by inflation data coming in higher than forecast on Wednesday.

This has raised questions over how European central banks will respond to developments in the world’s largest economy.

Asked Thursday about whether the U.S. consumer price index figures could impact the ECB’s rate-cut trajectory, Lagarde said: “Obviously, anything that happens matters to us and will in due course be embedded in the projection that will be prepared and released in June. The United States is a very large market, a very sizeable economy, a major financial sector as well.”

“We are not assuming that what happens in the euro area will be the mirror of what happens in the United States,” Lagarde said, stressing that the economies, political regimes and fiscal policies were all different.

She declined to specify whether the euro’s exchange rate against the U.S. dollar would factor into policymaking.

But in comments reported by Reuters that preceded the ECB’s decision, Per Jansson, deputy governor at Sweden’s central bank, on Thursday said that if the Fed rules out rate cuts in 2024, it could present a “problem” for both the Riksbank and the ECB.

In the case of the Riksbank, this would be due to the weakening of the Swedish krona fueling inflation, Jansson said in a speech.

European data continues to move toward the 2% inflation target, keeping the ECB on track for a June cut – but the pace and extent of further reductions this year “could be more sensitive to U.S. data and Fed policy,” Andrew Benito, chief European economist at Eisler Capital, told CNBC’s Silvia Amaro ahead of the rate announcement.

Economics

Job openings showed surprising increase to 7.4 million in April

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JOLTS beats estimates, posts best number since February

Employers increased job openings more than expected in April while hiring and layoffs also both rose, according to a report Tuesday that showed a relatively steady labor market.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed available jobs totaled nearly 7.4 million, an increase of 191,000 from March and higher than the 7.1 million consensus forecast by economists surveyed by FactSet. On an annual basis, the level was off 228,000, or about 3%.

The ratio of available jobs to unemployed workers was down close to 1.03 to 1 for the month, close to the March level.

Hiring also increased for the month, rising by 169,000 to 5.6 million, while layoffs fell by 196,000 to 1.79 million.

Quits, an indicator of worker confidence in their ability to find another job, edged lower, falling by 150,000 to 3.2 million.

“The labor market is returning to more normal levels despite the uncertainty within the macro outlook,” wrote Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Research. “Underlying patterns in hirings and firings suggest the labor market is holding steady.”

In other economic news Tuesday, the Commerce Department reported that new orders for manufactured goods fell more than expected in April. Orders fell 3.7% on the month, more than the 3.3% Dow Jones forecast and indicative of declining demand after swelling 3.4% in March as businesses sought to get ahead of President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

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Economics

Euro zone inflation, May 2025

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Shoppers buy fresh vegetables, fruit, and herbs at an outdoor produce market under green-striped canopies in Regensburg, Upper Palatinate, Bavaria, Germany, on April 19, 2025.

Michael Nguyen/NurPhoto via Getty Images

Euro zone inflation fell below the European Central Bank’s 2% target in May, hitting a cooler-than-expected 1.9% as the services print eased sharply, flash data from statistics agency Eurostat showed Tuesday.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected the May reading to come in at 2%, compared to the previous month’s 2.2% figure.

The closely watched services inflation print cooled sharply, amounting to 3.2% last month, compared to the previous 4% reading. So-called core inflation, which excludes energy, food, tobacco and alcohol prices, also eased, falling from 2.7% in April to 2.3% in May.

“May’s steep decline in services inflation, to its lowest level in more than three years, confirms that the previous month’s jump was just an Easter-related blip and that the downward trend in services inflation remains on track,” Jack Allen-Reynolds, deputy chief euro zone economist at Capital Economics said in a note.

Inflation has been moving back towards the 2% mark throughout 2025 amid uncertainty for the euro zone economy.

The latest figures will be considered by the European Central Bank as it prepares to make its next interest rate decision later this week. Markets were last pricing in an around 95% chance of interest rates being cut by a further 25-basis-points on Thursday.

Back in April, the central bank took its key rate, the deposit facility rate, to 2.25% — nearly half of the high of 4% notched in the middle of 2023.

But the global economic outlook remains muddied. U.S. President Donald Trump’s protectionist tariff plans have been casting shadows over the global economic outlook, with his so-called “reciprocal” duties — which are also set to affect the European Union — widely seen as harmful to economic growth. Their immediate potential impact on inflation is less clear, with central bank policymakers and analysts noting that it could depend on any potential countermeasures.

Despite the transatlantic tumult, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development in its latest Economic Outlook report out on Tuesday said it was expecting the euro area to expand by 1% in 2025, unchanged from its previous forecast. Euro area inflation is meanwhile projected to come in at 2.2% this year, also in line with the March report.

Euro country bond yields were last lower after the fresh inflation data, with the German 10-year bond yield falling by over two basis points to 2.499%, while the yield on the French 10-year bond was last down by more than one basis point to 3.169%.

The euro was meanwhile last around 0.3% lower against the dollar.

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U.S. growth forecast cut further by OECD as Trump tariffs sour outlook

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Old Navy and Gap retail stores are seen as people walk through Times Square in New York City on April 9, 2025.

Angela Weiss | Afp | Getty Images

Economic growth forecasts for the U.S. and globally were cut further by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development as President Donald Trump’s tariff turmoil weighs on expectations.

The U.S. growth outlook was downwardly revised to just 1.6% this year and 1.5% in 2026. In March, the OECD was still expecting a 2.2% expansion in 2025.

The fallout from Trump’s tariff policy, elevated economic policy uncertainty, a slowdown of net immigration and a smaller federal workforce were cited as reasons for the latest downgrade.

Global growth, meanwhile, is also expected to be lower than previously forecast, with the OECD saying that “the slowdown is concentrated in the United States, Canada and Mexico,” while other economies are projected to see smaller downward revisions.

“Global GDP growth is projected to slow from 3.3% in 2024 to 2.9% this year and in 2026 … on the technical assumption that tariff rates as of mid-May are sustained despite ongoing legal challenges,” the OECD said.

It had previously forecast global growth of 3.1% this year and 3% in 2026.

“The global outlook is becoming increasingly challenging,” the report said. “Substantial increases in barriers to trade, tighter financial conditions, weaker business and consumer confidence and heightened policy uncertainty will all have marked adverse effects on growth prospects if they persist.”

Frequent changes regarding tariffs have continued in recent weeks, leading to uncertainty in global markets and economies. Some of the most recent developments include Trump’s reciprocal, country-specific levies being struck down by the U.S. Court of International Trade, before then being reinstated by an appeals court, as well as Trump saying he would double steel duties to 50%.

The OECD adjusted its inflation forecast, saying “higher trade costs, especially in countries raising tariffs, will also push up inflation, although their impact will be offset partially by weaker commodity prices.”

The impact of tariffs on inflation has been hotly debated, with many central bank policymakers and global analysts suggesting it remains unclear how the levies will impact prices, and that much depends on factors like potential countermeasures.

The OECD’s inflation outlook shows a notable difference between the U.S. and some of the world’s other major economies. For instance, while G20 countries are now expected to record 3.6% inflation in 2025 — down from 3.8% in March’s estimate — the projection for the U.S. has risen to 3.2%, up from a previous 2.8%.

U.S. inflation could even be closing in on 4% toward the end of 2025, the OECD said.

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