People shop and walk in the shopping streets in the city center of Munich, Bavaria, Upper Bavaria, Germany, on February 20, 2025.
Michael Nguyen| Nurphoto | Getty Images
German annual inflation came in at an unchanged but higher-than-expected 2.8% in February, provisional data from statistics agency Destatis showed Friday.
The print is harmonized across the euro area for comparability.
The February print compares to a 2.7% estimate from economists surveyed by Reuters. The January harmonized annual inflation reading had also come in at 2.8%, which was already unchanged from December.
On a monthly basis, harmonized inflation rose 0.6%, according to the preliminary data from Destatis.
So-called core inflation, which strips out food and energy costs, came in at 2.6%, down from the 2.9% reading of January. The closely watched services inflation print also eased, coming in at 3.8% in February after 4% in the previous month.
German inflation had fallen below the 2% European Central Bank target in September last year, but re-accelerated after and has remained above the crucial mark for five months in a row now.
The German data arrives ahead of the consumer price index print for the euro zone on Monday and the latest ECB decision later next week. The central bank in January cut interest rates for the fifth time since starting to ease monetary policy last summer and markets are widely pricing in another trim on Thursday.
The figures are also one of the first key economic data points to be released since the German election last weekend, in which the conservative alliance between the Christian Democratic Union and the Christian Social Union secured the largest share of votes.
This puts their lead candidate Friedrich Merz in line to take over from Olaf Scholz as chancellor, although it appears likely that the CDU-CSU will form a governing coalition with Scholz’s Social Democratic Party.
Economics was a hot topic during campaigning, with Merz suggesting that his policy plans — including income and corporate tax cuts, less bureaucracy, changes to social benefits and deregulation — would give the country’s economy a needed boost. Germany’s gross domestic product has long been hovering around recession territory, and shrank 0.2% after price, seasonal and calendar adjustments in the last quarter of 2024 from the previous three months, according to Destatis.
Austan Goolsbee, President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, speaks to the Economic Club of New York in New York City, U.S., April 10, 2025.
Brendan McDermid | Reuters
Business owners and CEOs are already stocking up on inventory, and some American shoppers are panic buying big-ticket items in anticipation of President Donald Trump’s tariffs. The sudden buying binge could cause an “artificially high” level of economic activity, said Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee.
“That kind of preemptive purchasing is probably even more pronounced on the business side,” Goolsbee told CBS’ “Face The Nation” on Sunday, adding: “We heard a lot about preemptive building-up of inventories that could last 60 days, 90 days, if there [was] going to be more uncertainty.”
Businesses stockpiling inventory and consumers accelerating their purchasing decisions — buying an Apple iPhone now, say, rather than waiting until the fall — may inflate U.S. economic activity in April and lead to a slowdown in the coming months, Goolsbee suggested.
“Activity might look artificially high in the initial, and then by the summer, might fall off — because people have bought it all,” he said.
Sectors affected by Trump’s tariffs, particularly the auto industry, are most likely to heavily stock up on inventory now before import levies on goods from other countries potentially rise further, said Goolsbee. Many car parts, electronic components and other big-ticket consumer items are manufactured in China, for example, which currently faces a 145% total tariff rate on goods imported to the United States.
“We don’t know, 90 days from now, when they’ve revisited the tariffs, we don’t know how big they’re going to be,” Goolsbee said.
Some U.S. business owners who buy goods manufactured in China say they already can’t afford to place rush orders on inventory. Matt Rollens, owner and CEO of Granite Bay, California-based novelty drinkware company Dragon Glassware, says he’s temporarily holding his products in China because paying the 145% levy would force him to raise consumer prices by at least 50%, likely drying up customer demand.
Rollens has enough inventory in the U.S. to last roughly until June, and hopes the tariffs will be rolled back by then, he told CNBC Make It on April 11.
Short-term uncertainty and financial pain aside, the Fed’s Goolsbee expressed optimism about the country’s longer-term economic outlook.
“If we can get through this, it’s important to remember: The hard data coming into April was pretty good. The unemployment rate [was] around steady full employment, inflation [was] coming down,” he said. “It’s just a desire of people expressing they don’t want to back to ’21 and ’22, at a time when inflation was really raging out of control.”
IN HIS LOVE of lucre Donald Trump can be crass. In their pursuit of efficiency, free marketeers can be, too. Consider the sale of citizenship. Most people dislike the idea of treating national belonging as a commodity. Yet about a dozen countries hawk passports and more than 60, including America, offer residency in exchange for an investment or donation. Its “golden-visa” scheme is cumbersome, under-priced and inefficient. On this point the president and the market agree.