Traders on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on March 14, 2025, at the opening bell.
Timothy A. Clary | Afp | Getty Images
Uncertainty isn’t in short supply these days — and investors have taken notice.
See-sawing policy from the White House has given investors whiplash on many fronts — with tariffs being among the biggest question marks, market experts say.
Coupled with uncertainty around federal job cuts, negotiations to end the war in Ukraine and other issues, the combination has been “disorienting to market sentiment,” Paul Christopher, head of global investment strategy at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute, wrote Wednesday.
Stocks have wobbled amid the vertigo.
The S&P 500 entered a correction last week, meaning the U.S. stock index fell 10% from its recent high mark in February. The index has recovered a bit but teetered on the edge of a correction Tuesday afternoon.
The benchmark is down about 5% in 2025.
Uncertainty makes investors jittery — and stock markets volatile — because they don’t know how policy and other events will impact companies’ ability to make money, said Barry Glassman, a certified financial planner and founder of Glassman Wealth Services.
Worried consumers might pull back on spending, crimping profits, for example. Tariffs raise costs for certain companies to import or produce goods — and it’s unclear how other nations might retaliate. While economists generally don’t think federal trade policy and job cuts will push the U.S. into recession, Trump hasn’t ruled out that possibility.
“All of this comes down to corporate profits,” said Glassman, a member of CNBC’s Advisor Council. “People will put more dollars where they have greater confidence in the investments,” he added.
Many ‘unanswered’ questions
There’s always uncertainty in the stock market, but it may feel more acute right now than at other times, experts said.
A recent (and perhaps counterintuitive) example of that uncertainty came on March 6, when President Donald Trump reversed course and delayed 25% tariffs on many imports from Canada and Mexico by a month. That delay came two days after the tariffs had taken effect.
Despite that “reprieve,” the S&P 500 sold off sharply during the day’s trading session, BeiChen Lin, senior investment strategist at Russell Investments, said recently.
“There are still a lot of questions that remain unanswered,” Lin said.
For example, Lin said, what would happen after the 30-day delay? How might Mexico and Canada respond? Will the U.S. impose tariffs on other countries or products?
National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett warned Monday of “some uncertainty” over Trump’s tariff policy in coming weeks. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said last week that the Trump administration is more focused on long-term health of the U.S. economy instead of short-term volatility.
‘It’s all based on emotion’
Brad Klontz, a certified financial planner and behavioral finance expert, said he thinks the stock market turmoil ties into something more primitive than corporate profits: Human psychology.
“Quite frankly, it’s all based on emotion,” said Klontz, managing principal of YMW Advisors in Boulder, Colorado, and a member of CNBC’s Advisor Council.
“We like to feel like we can predict the future. When we feel the future is unpredictable, when we don’t have faith in our leaders, that’s when we start to panic,” Klontz said.
“There’s a ton of fear” right now, he added.
Amid fear, it’s important for investors to put the recent market moves into perspective, advisors said.
A 10% pullback isn’t shocking after two consecutive years of annual stock returns exceeding 20%, Glassman said.
“This is normal,” Glassman said of the market’s temper tantrums.
However, investors often make bad financial choices by engaging in catastrophic thinking (believing the markets may never recover, for example), Klontz said. They buy high and sell low, he said.
Historically, the market has always bounced back higher.
“If you lost $40,000, you have to ask yourself, did you really lose it?” Klontz said. “If you didn’t sell, I’m not sure you lost it. If you sold, you guaranteed lost that $40,000.”
Focus on what you can control
During times of uncertainty, investors should focus on what they can control, Klontz said.
It’s a good time for investors to look at their asset allocation, and ensure their overall stock-bond holdings haven’t gotten too risky or conservative over time, for example, Klontz said.
The recent volatility has also shown the value of diversification among different asset classes in an investment portfolio, Glassman said.
For example, international stocks in both developed and emerging markets are up this year, even though U.S. stocks are down, Glassman said. Bond returns have also been positive, he said.
Ultimately, investor behavior is the biggest threat to stock returns, not the federal government, Klontz said.
The Social Security Office in Alhambra, California.
Mario Anzuoni | Reuters
As the Social Security Administration seeks to curb identity fraud, more people will now be required to visit an office to prove their identity for new benefit claims and direct deposit changes.
In the next two weeks, the agency will transition to stronger identify proofing procedures, the Social Security Administration announced on Tuesday.
Individuals who cannot use an online My Social Security account for identity proofing will need to visit their local Social Security office, according to the agency.
As a result of the new proofing measures, the Social Security Administration also plans to accelerate the processing of both online and in-person direct deposit change requests to one business day, down from the 30 days those changes were typically held.
The changes are aimed at helping to avoid the fraudulent redirection of benefit checks, which the agency has been warning about for years. Social Security Administration acting commissioner Lee Dudek said he witnessed the effects of the fraud firsthand while working in one of the agency’s field offices.
“It’s always heartbreaking,” Dudek said on a Tuesday press call, recalling the tears, anger and disbelief he saw from victims.
“The beneficiary always needs the money they depend on,” Dudek said. “Many times it’s their only source of income, and guys steal their information and redirect their check somewhere else.”
Ultimately, “it was up to SSA to make it right,” said Dudek, who estimates the agency is now losing more than $100 million per year due to direct deposit fraud.
Between January 2013 and May 2018, fraudsters redirected $33.5 million in benefits for 20,878 beneficiaries by making unauthorized direct deposit changes, audits from the Social Security Administration Office of the Inspector General found. Over that same period, the Social Security Administration was able to correct unauthorized direct deposit changes before checks were issued for an additional $23.9 million in payments to 19,662 beneficiaries.
How new identity proofing procedures will work
The agency plans to move away from knowledge-based authentication, which uses personal questions like asking for your mother’s maiden name or a previous address to verify identities. A spate of private company data breaches have made it so much of the same information the Social Security Administration asks for is available in the public domain, Dudek said.
The Social Security Administration plans to enforce the new online digital identity proofing and in-person identity proofing starting on March 31, following a two-week training period for management and frontline employees.
Individuals who want to start benefits claims may do so by phone if they cannot go online. However, they will have to verify their identify in person to complete their request.
“The agency therefore recommends calling to request an in-person appointment to begin and complete the claim in one interaction,” the agency stated in its March 18 announcement. “Individuals with and without an appointment will need to prove identity before starting a transaction.”
Individuals who want to change their direct deposit information and who cannot go online, can either visit a local office or call to schedule an in-person appointment.
The change may require foot traffic to Social Security offices nationwide to increase by about 75,000 to 85,000 more in-person visitors per week, according to reports on an internal Social Security Administration memo.
‘More headaches and longer wait times’ possible
The change comes as the Department of Government Efficiency, an unofficial government entity within the Trump administration, has disclosed it plans to close about 47 Social Security offices across the country out of approximately 1,230 locations.
Meanwhile, Social Security’s 800 number has struggled with long wait times.
The AARP, an interest group that represents Americans ages 50 and over, urged the Social Security Administration to reverse the decision. The changes will prompt “more headaches and longer wait times to resolve routine customer service needs,” Chief Advocacy and Engagement Officer Nancy LeaMond said in a March 19 statement.
The change not only “comes as a total surprise but is on an impractical fast-track,” LeaMond said.
“SSA needs to be transparent about its service changes and seek input from the older Americans who will be affected, because any delay in Social Security caused by this change can mean real economic hardship,” LeaMond said.
Advocacy groups also expressed concern that certain beneficiaries — particularly older, disabled or rural residents — may have difficulty accessing the necessary in-person services.
On Tuesday, Social Security acting commissioner Dudek said he is open to meeting with advocates and helping to figure out better ways to help their constituents.
“If it is to the detriment of our citizens that we serve, then we’re going to take necessary actions to improve those services,” Dudek said.
Although inflation receded last month, an escalating trade war threatens to hike prices on consumer goods going forward.
“Tariffs on aluminum, steel and oil are essential elements to production across a wide range of products,” said Brett House, an economics professor at Columbia Business School. “Those price increases are going to ripple more widely across the American economy.”
The inflation risk from tariffs ensured the central bank would take a more cautious approach, according to House. “Greater uncertainty in the world means the Fed is more predictably in a wait-and-see mode,” he said.
When the Fed hiked rates in 2022 and 2023, most consumer borrowing costs quickly followed suit. Even though the central bank began to lower its benchmark rate at the end of last year, consumer rates are still elevated, with credit card annual percentage rates down only slightly from an all-time high.
“The pressure on household budgets is unrelenting,” said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.com.
As the federal funds rate comes down, consumers may see their borrowing costs decrease as well, making it cheaper to borrow money to purchase a house or a car.
But even with the Fed on the sidelines for now, consumers struggling under the weight of high prices and high borrowing costs could see some relief, experts say. Already, rates for mortgages, auto loans and credit cards are edging lower.
Credit cards
Most credit cards have a variable rate, so there’s a direct connection to the Fed’s benchmark.
Even though the central bank held rates steady at the last few meetings, average annual percentage rates have eased. The average credit card rate is down to 20.09%, from 20.27% at the start of the year, according to Bankrate. That is on the heels of the rate cuts that already went into effect.
“Credit card rates have fallen from their 2024 record highs,” said Matt Schulz, chief credit analyst at LendingTree.“March was the sixth straight monthly decline, but the decreases have slowed as Fed rate cuts get further back in the rearview mirror.”
Mortgages
Because 15- and 30-year mortgage rates are fixed, and largely tied to Treasury yields and the economy, those rates have also been trending lower.
Uncertainty over tariffs and worries about a possible recession have dragged down consumers’ outlook. “Mortgage rates are falling because of concerns about economic weakness,” McBride said.
However, “that’s not the type of environment that’s going to provide a sustainable boost to the housing market,” he added.
The average rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage is now 6.78% as of March 19, while the 15-year, fixed-rate is 6.24%, according to Mortgage News Daily.
“Sticker prices are still really high and tariffs will only drive those prices higher,” McBride said.
Auto loan rates have also backed down from recent highs but are still up year to date. The average rate on a five-year new car loan is now 7.2% as of the week ended March 14, while the average auto loan rate for used cars is 11.3%, according to Edmunds. At the end of 2024, those rates were 6.6% and 10.8%, respectively.
Student loans
Federal student loan rates are fixed, as well, so most borrowers are somewhat shielded from Fed moves and recent economic turmoil.
Undergraduate students who took out direct federal student loans for the 2024-25 academic year are paying 6.53%, up from 5.50% in 2023-24. Interest rates for the upcoming school year will be based in part on the May auction of the 10-year Treasury note.
Private student loans tend to have a variable rate tied to the prime, Treasury bill or another rate index.
Savings
On the upside, “savings rates really haven’t changed all that much, that’s the good news,” McBride said. “Savings rates are still at attractive levels and the top yields are still well in excess of inflation.”
While the central bank has no direct influence on deposit rates, the yields tend to be correlated to changes in the target federal funds rate.
Top-yielding online savings accounts currently pay 4.4%, on average, according to Bankrate. Although that’s down from roughly 5% last year, it is well above the annual inflation rate of 2.8%.
The ideal time to sell your home may be fast approaching.
On average, home sellers who list their properties in the week of April 13 to April 19 this year could sell for roughly $27,000 more than other times of the year, according to a recent report by Realtor.com. The site assessed seasonal trends and housing metrics — but did not factor in mortgage rates because they do not follow seasonal patterns.
“This is the right time of year to list and to get ahead,” said Joel Berner, senior economist at Realtor.com.
Of course, the ideal time to sell can differ every year.
A separate report by Zillow found that homes listed in the last two weeks of May 2024 sold for 1.6% more than other times of the year, a $5,600 boost on a typical U.S. home. But, the report notes, “it’s not certain that this year’s spring home shopping season will follow last year’s pattern.”
Sellers generally get better returns if they list between March 15 and July 31, but many factors can affect the timing of the premium, according to Zillow.
What’s more, the peak time to sell a house might depend on market conditions in your area. According to Zillow data, a San Diego home listed as early as the second half of March could sell for roughly 2% more than other times of the year, or $20,100. Meanwhile, the site found it’s better to list homes in Phoenix in the second half of November when there’s a price premium of 1.4%, or $6,400.
If you plan to sell your home in 2025, here’s what you should consider, according to experts.
What to know about this year’s spring housing market
The spring is typically when the housing market sees the most activity from buyers and sellers, experts say, as homebuyers are often looking to close a purchase before summer kicks off and well in advance of the new school year.
Sellers often want to capture the “sweet spot” of listing their home when more buyers are looking and when their property looks the most attractive, according to Amanda Pendleton, a home trends expert at Zillow.
In spring, “the flowers are starting to bloom, the grass is green,” she said. “Your home looks great.”
The same principles apply to whether you’re listing an apartment, condominium or co-op, Pendleton said. You’re still trying to showcase your property when it looks and feels the best. During the spring, the city is vibrant, which can be a “big selling point.”
“Nobody wants to look out at a bleak city full of snow,” Pendleton said. “You’re trying to still capture the nicest view possible.”
The ‘typical’ spring housing market
There hasn’t been a “typical” spring housing market in years, experts say.The pandemic put the country on lockdown in March 2020, freezing that year’s spring housing market.
Then, the market was hot with buying and selling activity for much of 2021 as low mortgage rates attracted buyers. In 2022, the spring housing market was impacted as the Fed began to hike borrowing costs in March.
Even though most buyers held back due to high prices and mortgage rates, there was a slight return-to-normal in 2023’s spring market. But then last year, the spring housing market essentially took place in the fall. At that point, the Fed had slashed interest rates for the first time in years.
It remains to be seen how the 2025 spring housing market will pan out as mortgage rates remain volatile.
“If mortgage rates cooperate,” said Pendleton, the housing market should continue to normalize from an intense seller’s market in the past years.
The 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.65% for the week ending March 13, flat from 6.63% the week before, according to Freddie Mac data via the Federal Reserve.
Is it possible to perfectly time your listing?
The mortgage rate lock-in effect deterred homeowners who secured low interest rates from listing their properties, because they were reluctant to finance a new property at the market’s higher rates.
But even though rates remain above 6%, more sellers are listing their homes as life events like growing households or a need to relocate come into the picture, Berner said: “Families grow, jobs change and people have to move.”
For home sellers running against the clock, whether that’s a new baby or a new job, there might be less room to perfectly time a listing, experts say.
But those with more time will be in a stronger position to come up with a plan, especially as buyers gain more power and sellers may need to be more strategic with their timing. Even if you don’t have much flexibility with when you list, “getting the price right” will help you sell your home faster, Berner recently told CNBC.
Work with experts like real estate agents or brokers in your area to come up with a strategy. Local real estate agents will have a better knowledge of the intricacies related to your area, Berner said.