Consumer sentiment grew even worse than expected in April as the expected inflation level hit its highest since 1981, a closely watched University of Michigan survey showed Friday.

The survey’s mid-month reading on consumer sentiment fell to 50.8, down from 57.0 in March and below the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 54.6. The move represented a 10.9% monthly change and was 34.2% lower than a year ago.

As sentiment moved lower, inflation worries surged.

Respondents’ expectation for inflation a year from now leaped to 6.7%, the highest level since November 1981 and up from 5% in March. At the five-year horizon, the expectation climbed to 4.4%, a 0.3 percentage point increase from March and the highest since June 1991.

Other measures in the survey also showed deterioration.

The current economic conditions index fell to 56.5, an 11.4% drop from March, while the expectations measure slipped to 47.2, a 10.3% fall. On an annual basis, the two measures dropped 28.5% and 37.9% respectively.

Sentiment declines came across all demographics, including age, income and political affiliation, according to Joanne Hsu, the survey director.

“Consumers report multiple warning signs that raise the risk of recession: expectations for business conditions, personal finances, incomes, inflation, and labor markets all continued to deteriorate this month,” Hsu said.

In addition to the other readings, the survey showed unemployment fears rising to their highest since 2009.

The survey comes amid concerns that President Donald Trump’s tariffs will raise inflation and slow growth, with some prominent Wall Street executives and economists expecting the U.S. could teeter on recession over the next year.

To be sure, the survey’s readings are generally counter to market-based expectations, which indicate little fear of inflation ahead. However, Federal Reserve officials in recent days say they fear that consumer expectations can quickly become reality if behavior changes. Consumer and producer inflation readings this week showed price pressures easing in March.

Also, the University of Michigan survey included responses between March 25 and April 8, the end period coming the day before Trump announced a 90-day stay on aggressive tariffs against dozens of U.S. trading partners.

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Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said Friday recent market trends show investors are moving away from the U.S. as the safest place to invest while President Donald Trump’s trade war escalates.

With Treasury yields rising and the U.S. dollar sagging against its global counterparts in recent days, the trends are running counter to what you might normally see, the central bank official said during a CNBC “Squawk Box” interview.

“Normally, when you see big tariff increases, I would have expected the dollar to go up. The fact that the dollar is going down at the same time, I think, lends some more credibility to the story of investor preferences shifting,” Kashkari said.

The 10-year Treasury yield has surged this week after Trump announced his intention to slap a 10% across-the-board tariff against U.S. trading partners and threatened to impose even harsher select levies before backing down Wednesday.

At the same time, the greenback has slumped more 3% against a basket of global currencies, with moves potentially signifying a turn away from safe-haven U.S. assets.

“Investors around the world have viewed America as the best place to invest, and if that’s true, we will have a trade deficit. So now one of the ways that expresses itself is in lower yields across asset classes in America,” Kashkari said. “If the trade deficit is going to go down, it could be that investors are saying, OK, America no longer is the most attractive place in the world to invest, and then you would expect to see bond yields go up.”

Kashkari noted, however, that he is seeing “stresses” but not significant dislocations in market functioning.

Kashkari does not vote this year on the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee but will vote in 2026. He noted that his focus in the current environment is on keeping inflation expectations anchored, echoing other policymakers’ statements that rates are unlikely to move until there is clearer visibility on fiscal and trade policy.

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Wholesale prices unexpectedly fell in March, setting up a favorable inflation backdrop as President Donald Trump began intensifying tariffs against U.S. trading partners, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday.

The producer price index, considered a leading indicator for pipeline inflation pressures, declined a seasonally adjusted 0.4% for the month, after rising 0.1% in February. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for an increase of 0.2%.

Excluding food and energy, so-called core PPI also declined, down 0.1% against the estimate for a 0.3% increase. The index less food, energy and trade services increased 0.1%.

More than 70% of the slide in final demand prices came from a 0.9% tumble in goods prices, a key measure as policymakers look for inflation drivers. Services prices also pulled back, falling 0.2%.

Nevertheless, the indicators showed inflation still holding above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

Headline PPI showed a 2.7% 12-month rate while the index excluding food, energy and trade services was at a 3.4% rate.

Moreover, March inflation measures will be considered somewhat stale considering the uncertainty behind Trump’s trade policy. The president slapped a broad 10% levy against all imports while also revealing a menu of individual duties against dozens of other trading partners. Trump on Wednesday backed off what he termed “reciprocal” tariffs, instituting a 90-day negotiation period in an effort to reduce the U.S. trade deficit.

The BLS on Thursday also reported that consumer prices pressures were easing, down 0.1% for a headline rate of 2.4% and a core reading of 2.8% that was the lowest in four years.

This is breaking news. Please check back for updates.

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