Bernstein is looking at Chinese internet tech stocks like it’s the downtrodden days of Covid-19. “For all the justified consternation around geopolitics and trade headwinds, we think the mantra of ‘fade sentiment extremes’ still applies,” Bernstein China internet analyst Robin Zhu and a team said in an April 14 report. “Several of the other conditions that marked prior bottoms in the China internet sector now apply again,” they said, pointing out that valuation multiples have mostly fallen back to the lows seen in the 2021 to 2023 period. Tighter government regulation on Chinese internet businesses and the Shanghai lockdown in 2022 had weighed heavily on investor sentiment. But as Beijing ramped up its stimulus announcements in recent months and signaled more private sector support — especially with the advent of DeepSeek’s artificial intelligence breakthrough — Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index broke a four-year losing streak in 2024 and kicked off 2025 with a strong start. “Looking across global markets, we can’t help but feel the rate of regulatory change Stateside feels mildly reminiscent of China in 2021,” the Bernstein analysts said, noting China’s current policy stance now appears more predictable in contrast. “Within our [China internet] coverage, video gaming feels like the sector most insulated from trade and macro headwinds, while digital ads might even be benefitting from merchants pivoting to selling domestically,” the Bernstein report said, highlighting two sweet spots for social media and gaming giant Tencent . U.S.-China trade tensions escalated into an essential standoff over the last two weeks, while uncertainty has grown over whether major Chinese companies will need to delist from U.S. exchanges. The Hang Seng curtailed its earlier 2025 gains and is up nearly 7% this year as of Thursday’s close. The market was closed Friday for a holiday. Tencent, the largest Hong Kong-listed company by market cap, remains Bernstein’s top pick in the China Internet sector. The tech company trades at 13.5 times estimated 2026 earnings, which the analysts pointed out is not far from the bottom of a recent range, before investors started buying the stock on expectations it can benefit from generative AI. The firm rates Tencent overweight with a 640 Hong Kong dollar price target — for expected upside of nearly 40% from Thursday’s close. Bernstein also rates Chinese gaming company NetEase overweight, with a $125 price target, or nearly 27% upside from Thursday’s close. The stock is listed in both the U.S. and Hong Kong. China approved 362 new games in the first quarter, almost recovering to 2020 levels, Bernstein analysis showed. Beijing had temporarily halted new game approvals in the interim while trying to restrict minors from playing games for too many hours each week. Major Chinese companies’ digital ads revenue has been growing by at least 10% year on year in recent quarters, the Bernstein analysts said. For Tencent in particular, they expect the company can benefit from Chinese merchants needing to compete more in the domestic market due to high U.S. tariffs. “Our channel checks with advertisers have pointed to improvements in AI and ad tech driving clear upside in ad [return on investment] across Tencent’s properties,” the Bernstein analysts said, pointing to the Chinese company’s Miaosi ad creation platform and increased ads on short videos hosted within Tencent’s ubiquitous WeChat social media and messaging app. Part of the Chinese government’s efforts to support local exporters is to assist them with selling products once destined for the U.S. to Chinese market instead. China reported first-quarter gross domestic product growth last week of 5.4% , above expectations. Economists meanwhile have started cutting targets — with UBS down to a forecast of just 3.4% for the year, versus China’s official target of around 5%. “While pressure from US-China trade issues poses clear risks for the Chinese economy, the 100-200bps of top-down slowdown most analysis we’ve read do not point to some kind of economic apocalypse,” the Bernstein analysts said. “On the local services front, Meituan’s forward guidance remained robust, pointing to mid-20% [gross transaction value] growth (higher than Q4 levels), and slightly lower growth in revenues,” the Bernstein analysts said of the food-delivery giant, which is listed in Hong Kong. The firm rates the stock overweight and has a price target of 200 HKD, or 46.5% upside from Thursday’s close. Bernstein also has overweight ratings on Alibaba and JD.com , which have shares listed in both the U.S. and Hong Kong. Their only China internet stock pick that doesn’t have a Hong Kong listing yet is Temu’s parent PDD. Chinese companies listed in the U.S. have started offering shares in Hong Kong in the last several years as worries increased about a potential forced delisting from New York exchanges. The concerns picked up again after the White House in late February said it would review U.S. investments in Chinese companies. And when asked by Fox Business on April 9 about a potential delisting, U.S. Treasury Scott Bessent said, ” Everything’s on the table .” The Bernstein analysts pointed out that investors have recently preferred Hong Kong stocks that are also accessible from mainland China via the “Southbound” stock connect, and avoided U.S.-listed Chinese companies that may find it difficult to list in Hong Kong. They expect PDD may already be seeking a deal of some kind to mitigate the business impact of any increased U.S. restrictions. — CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.
“What we try to do is help investors leverage the upside through sector rotation, but also minimize drawdowns,” the Fairlead Strategies founder told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this week. “That’s obviously a big advantage longer term when you can just go into a less deep hole to climb out of.”
According to Stockton, her ETF is particularly nimble in this environment because it uses multiple strategies — not just one. Since President Donald Trump announced his “reciprocal” tariffs on April 2, the ETF has fallen just over 4%, while the S&P 500 has lost 6.9%.
Stockton’s ETF rotates monthly between all 11 S&P 500 sectors.
“We don’t own technology anymore,” Stockton said. “Some of the sectors that we like to invest in have fallen out of favor.”
As of Thursday’s close, the Fairlead Tactical Sector ETF is down 4% so far this year.
Meanwhile, ETFs that are centered around specific sectors or strategies are largely under pressure. For example, the Invesco Top QQQ Trust (QBIG), which tracks the top 45% of companies in the Nasdaq-100 index, is down 22% in 2025.
BTIG’s Troy Donohue, the firm’s head of Americas portfolio trading, thinks Stockton’s ETF employs a sound strategy – particularly during the recent “dramatic pullback.”
“TACK is a great example of how you can be nimble during these market times,” Donohue said. “It’s great to see it in an ETF product that has performed really well during this recent drawdown.”
“The Board evaluated the application under the statutory factors it is required to consider, including the financial and managerial resources of the companies, the convenience and needs of the communities to be served by the combined organization, and the competitive and financial stability impacts of the proposal,” the Fed said in a release.
Capital One first announced it had entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Discover in February 2024. It will also indirectly acquire Discover Bank through the transaction.
Under the agreement, Discover shareholders will receive 1.0192 Capital One shares for each Discover share or about a 26% premium from Discover’s closing price of $110.49 at the time, Capital One said in a release.
Capital One and Discover are among the largest credit card issuers in the U.S., and the merger will expand Capital One’s deposit base and its credit card offerings.
After the deal closes, Capital One shareholders will hold 60% of the combined company, while Discover shareholders own 40%, according to the February 2024 release.
In a joint statement, Capital One and Discover said they expect to close the deal on May 18.
Smart robotic arms work on the production line at the production workshop of Changqing Auto Parts Co., LTD., located in Anqing Economic Development Zone, Anhui Province, China, on March 13, 2025. (Photo by Costfoto/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images
BEIJING — China missed several key targets from its 10-year plan to become self-sufficient in technology, while fostering unhealthy industrial competition which worsened global trade tensions, the European Chamber of Commerce in China said in a report this week.
When Beijing released its “Made in China 2025” plan in 2015, it was met with significant international criticism for promoting Chinese business at the expense of their foreign counterparts. The country subsequently downplayed the initiative, but has doubled-down on domestic tech development given U.S. restrictionsin the last several years.
Since releasing the plan,China has exceeded its targets on achieving domestic dominance in autos, but the country has not yet reached its targets in aerospace, high-end robots and the growth rate of manufacturing value-added, the business chamber said, citing its research and discussions with members. Out of ten strategic sectors identified in the report, China only attained technological dominance in shipbuilding, high-speed rail and electric cars.
China’s targets are generally seen as a direction rather than an actual figure to be achieved by a specific date. The Made In China 2025 plan outlines the first ten years of what the country called a ‘multi-decade strategy’ to become a global manufacturing powerhouse.
The chamber pointed out that China’s self-developed airplane, the C919, still relies heavily on U.S. and European parts and though industrial automation levels have “increased substantially,” it is primarily due to foreign technology. In addition, the growth rate of manufacturing value add reached 6.1% in 2024, falling from the 7% rate in 2015 and just over halfway toward reaching the target of 11%.
“Everyone should consider themselves lucky that China missed its manufacturing growth target,” Jens Eskelund, president of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, told reporters Tuesday, since the reverse would have exacerbated pressure on global competitors. “They didn’t fulfill their own target, but I actually think they did astoundingly well.”
Even at that slower pace, China has transformed itself over the last decade to drive 29% of global manufacturing value add — almost the same as the U.S. and Europe combined, Eskelund said. “Before 2015, in many, many categoriesChina was not a direct competitor of Europe and the United States.”
The U.S. in recent years has sought to restrict China’s access to high-end tech, and encourage advanced manufacturing companies to build factories in America.
The U.S. restrictions have “pushed us to make things that previously we would not have thought we had to buy,” said Lionel M. Ni, founding president of the Guangzhou campus of the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. That’s according to a CNBC translation of his Mandarin-language remarks to reporters on Wednesday.
Ni said the products requiring home-grown development efforts included chips and equipment, and if substitutes for restricted items weren’t immediately available, the university would buy the second-best version available.
In addition to thematic plans, China issues national development priorities every five years. The current 14th five-year plan emphasizes support for the digital economy and wraps up in December. The subsequent 15th five-year plan is scheduled to be released next year.
China catching up
It remains unclear to what extent China can become completely self-sufficient in key technological systems in the near term. But local companies have made rapid strides.
“Western chip export controls have had some success in that they briefly set back China’s developmental efforts in semiconductors, albeit at some cost to the United States and allied firms,” analysts at the Washington, D.C.,-based think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies, said in a report this week. However, they noted that China has only doubled down, “potentially destabilizing the U.S. semiconductor ecosystem.”
For example, the thinktank pointed out, Huawei’s current generation smartphone, the Pura 70 series, incorporates 33 China-sourced components and only 5 sourced from outside of China.
Huawei reported a 22% surge in revenue in 2024 — the fastest growth since 2016 — buoyed by a recovery in its consumer products business.The company spent 20.8% of its revenue on research and development last year, well above its annual goal of more than 10%.
Overall, China manufacturers reached the nationwide 1.68% target for spending on research and development as a percentage of operating revenue, the EU Chamber report said.
“‘Europe needs to take a hard look at itself,” Eskelund said, referring to Huawei’s high R&D spend. “Are European companies doing what is needed to remain at the cutting edge of technology?”
However, high spending doesn’t necessarily mean efficiency.
The electric car race in particular has prompted a price war, with most automakers running losses in their attempt to undercut competitors. The phenomenon is often called “neijuan” or “involution” in China.
“We also need to realize [China’s] success has not come without problems,” Eskelund said. “We are seeing across a great many industries it has not translated into healthy business.”
He added that the attempt to fulfill “Made in China 2025” targets contributed to involution, and pointed out that China’s efforts to move up the manufacturing value chain from Christmas ornaments to high-end equipment have also increased global worries about security risks.
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Such fierce competition compounds the impact of already slowing economic growth. Out of 2,825 mainland China-listed companies, 20% reported a loss for the first time in 2024, according to a CNBC analysis of Wind Information data as of Thursday. Including companies that reported yet another year of losses, the share of companies that lost money last year rose to nearly 48%, the analysis showed.
China in March emphasized that boosting consumption is its priority for the year, after previously focusing on manufacturing. Retail sales growth have lagged behind industrial production on a year-to-date basis since the beginning of 2024, according to official data accessed via Wind Information.
Policymakers are also looking for ways to ensure “a better match between manufacturing output and what the domestic market can absorb,” Eskelund said, adding that efforts to boost consumption don’t matter much if manufacturing output grows even faster.
But when asked about policies that could address manufacturing overcapacity, he said, “We are also eagerly waiting in anticipation.”