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How tax and tariff questions are leaving investors in limbo

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Even after the biggest May jump in 35 years for the S&P 500, investors’ understandable confusion about the future of tax and tariff policies and inflation is driving a lot of anxiety.

The S&P’s value ended up 6% last month, alongside a 4% gain in the Dow and 10% surge in the Nasdaq index — a stark reversal from the steep losses surrounding President Donald Trump’s announcement of substantial tariffs, which he later paused for 90 days. Financial advisors’ expectations for the economy, as reported in Financial Planning’s Financial Advisor Confidence Outlook survey, turned slightly less negative after an all-time low score in April.

Beyond questions of how potential tariffs might affect inflation, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act is drawing scrutiny as the major tax and spending legislation heads from the House to the Senate. Concerns include who stands to benefit and who will lose out, and the bill’s ramifications to the federal budget deficits and the national debt. 

Many high net worth and ultrahigh net worth clients who work with David Lesperance, the founder of immigration tax and law advisory firm Lesperance & Associates, are already seeking to get “all the pieces in place and all the planning done” with an eye toward “maximizing optionality to be able to deal with the unpredictable,” he said. “They just don’t know, so the key is to be prepared for any contingency and to be able to execute quicker than the legislature, which is generally possible.”

READ MORE: Trump’s tax bill offers wins — and a major loss — for advisors

Responding to uncertainty

In the case of Lesperance’s ultrawealthy clients, that means taking steps as drastic as seeking residency outside of the country and offshore citizenship in anticipation of a recession next year and the political pendulum swinging back toward Democrats, who might adopt taxes on unrealized gains or that target billionaires or millionaires. Other investors may be acting toward much more immediate needs or even from a sense of panic.

Out of 373 retirees polled between March 25 and April 17 as part of the Schroders 2025 US Retirement Survey, 92% said they are worried that inflation will reduce the value of their assets, 62% admitted they have no idea how long their savings will last and almost half said their expenses in retirement are higher than they expected, said Deb Boyden, the firm’s head of U.S. defined contribution. For many retirees, the “stress of uncertainty is an everyday battle” rather than “just economic theory,” Boyden said in an email.  

“While advisors and clients can’t control Washington, they can control how they respond,” Boyden continued. “Sticking to a financial plan, staying invested through market cycles, and resisting the urge to make emotional decisions are all variables within their control. Periods of heightened uncertainty present an opportunity for advisors to deepen relationships by communicating with clients more frequently to help them reassess goals, understand allocations and feel more confident in their strategy. Our data shows that many retirees are without a plan or professional guidance — this void is an opportunity for advisors.”

READ MORE: SALT, tips and auto loans: A guide to the House GOP tax bill

Answering the unknowables

Those retirees and other investors are struggling to find answers that aren’t even clear to some of the top experts trying to figure out the form and implications of taxes and tariffs in the future. Ongoing court cases have placed the basic legality of some of the administration’s tariffs under multiple levels of judicial review, and that could affect the fiscal price of the tax and spending legislation. The bill is facing substantial criticism over, among other things, its price tag adding $3 trillion to the national debt over a decade, just after a downgrade to the U.S. government’s credit rating by Moody’s Investors Service.

But the bill garnered enough support to pass the House by one vote and the backing of influential groups like the pro-business U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which is financing an advertising campaign that calls on lawmakers to vote for “securing permanent tax relief for America’s families, workers and entrepreneurs.” However, in an indication of the complexity of the current political environment, the Chamber also refers to the prospect of tariffs as a “new tax on summer fun.”

The outlook has grown so blurry that David Kelly, the chief global strategist of JPMorgan Asset Management, compared investors’ task of figuring out next steps to the challenge of five argumentative siblings putting together a 1,000-piece puzzle.

“Despite political tensions, ongoing policy changes and heightened inflation and recession concerns, 2025 so far has generated positive returns for investors, with the S&P 500 and the bond markets registering small gains and international stocks posting much larger increases,” Kelly said in a June 2 note. “This is no time for complacency, however. The outlook for the economy is for just slow GDP growth, smaller job gains and temporarily higher inflation. This should translate into sticky interest rates, decelerating earnings growth and a falling dollar. At the start of the year, given valuations and portfolio concentration, it made sense for investors to rebalance away from U.S. mega-cap growth stocks and towards more defensive U.S. stocks, international equities and alternatives. Five months into the year, while the macro jigsaw remains complicated, the same advice seems warranted.”

READ MORE: Tax Cuts and Jobs Act expiration: A guide for financial advisors

Legislative agenda

As for the tax and spending bill, President Trump’s Republican allies in the Senate have discussed a possible goal of passing the massive legislation by July 4. But voting the legislation through the Senate could prove difficult, according to Jonathan Traub, a managing principal and the leader of the Tax Policy Group at consulting and professional services firm Deloitte Tax.  

“For both policy and procedural reasons, we can expect changes to the current legislation,” Traub said in a statement after the House passage of the bill last month. “It will remain a tremendous challenge for Republican leaders to keep near unanimity among their members given the push and pull on so many major components of the bill.”

Provisions of the bill as wide-ranging as the level of tax brackets and states’ ability to regulate artificial intelligence and as narrow as a new levy on international remittances and shifts in the rules for expenses eligible to be paid through 529 savings plans will receive close scrutiny in a Senate debate that could extend far beyond Independence Day. Advisors and their clients may need to plan for multiple different outcomes in the interim.

“There’s a whole bunch of opportunity, but in order to do that you need to get a whole bunch of planning in place,” Lesperance said. “It’s very interesting on the planning side, but people are scrambling, and they’re making educated bets.”

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Accounting

Tax Fraud Blotter: Prep perps

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Bank job; the magic is gone; not a beautiful day in the Neighborhood; and other highlights of recent tax cases.

Washington, D.C.: CPA Timothy Trifilo has been sentenced to 20 months in prison for making a false statement on a mortgage loan application and for not filing an income tax return.

Trifilo worked in compliance for several large accounting and finance firms and recently was managing director at a tax firm where he specialized in transaction structuring and advisory service, tax compliance and tax due diligence.

For a decade, he did not file federal income tax returns nor pay taxes owed despite earning more than $7.7 million during that time. He caused a tax loss to the IRS of more than $2 million.

In February 2023, Trifilo sought to obtain a $1.36 million bank-financed loan to purchase a home in D.C. and was working with a mortgage company. After the company told him that the bank would not approve the loan without copies of his filed returns, Trifilo provided fabricated documents to make it appear as if he had filed federal returns for 2020 and 2021. On these returns and other documents, Trifilo listed a former colleague as the individual who prepared the returns and uploaded them for filing with the IRS. This individual did not prepare the returns, has never prepared returns for Trifilo and did not authorize Trifilo to use his name on the returns and other documents.

The bank approved the loan and Trifilo purchased the home.

Trifilo, who previously pleaded guilty, was also ordered to serve two years of supervised release and pay $2,057,256.40 in restitution to the IRS.

New York: Tax preparer Rafael Alvarez, 61, of Cortland Manor, New York, has been sentenced to four years in prison in connection with a decade-long, $145-million tax fraud.

Alvarez, a.k.a. “the Magician,” who previously pleaded guilty, oversaw the filing of tens of thousands of federal individual income tax returns that included false information designed to fraudulently reduce clients’ taxes. From around 2010 to 2020, Alvarez was the CEO, owner and manager of ATAX New York, also d.b.a. ATAX New York-Marble Hill, ATAX Marble Hill, ATAX Marble Hill NY and ATAX Corporation. This high-volume prep company in the Bronx, New York, prepared some 90,000 federal income tax returns for clients during this period.

Alvarez both prepared returns for clients and recruited, supervised and directed other personnel who in turn prepared returns. He oversaw what authorities called “a sweeping fraudulent scheme” where he and his employees submitted false information on clients’ returns. This information included, among other things, bogus itemized tax deductions, made-up capital losses, phony business expenses and fraudulent tax credits.

Alvarez recruited to ATAX and personally trained “impressionable, easily intimidated” workers. When some employees questioned Alvarez about his fraudulent tax prep, he threatened these employees about reporting his scheme.

He deprived the IRS of $145 million in tax revenue. 

He was also sentenced to three years of supervised release and ordered to pay the IRS $145 million in restitution and forfeit more than $11.84 million.

Philadelphia: Tax preparer James J. Sirleaf, 65, of Darby, Pennsylvania, has pleaded guilty to a multiyear scheme to help clients file false income tax returns to fraudulently increase their refunds, as well as to filing false personal income tax returns for himself.

Sirleaf, who previously pleaded guilty, was the sole owner and operator of Metro Financial Services; he prepared false and fraudulent 1040s for clients for at least tax years 2016 through 2019. On the returns he included false deductions, business expenses and dependent information.

He also filed false returns for himself for tax years 2017 through 2019, failing to fully report his income.

Sirleaf caused a tax loss to the IRS of $219,622.

Sentencing is Sept. 3.

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Summerfield, North Carolina: William Lamar Rhew III has pleaded guilty to wire fraud, money laundering, securities fraud, tax evasion and failure to file returns in connection with a $20 million Ponzi scheme.

From November 2017 to December 2023, Rhew defrauded at least 117 investors of at least $24 million. He induced victims to invest with his company, Chadley Capital, which would allegedly buy accounts receivable at a discount, sell them for a profit and provide consistently high rates of return. Rhew touted the company’s increasing deal flow and underwriting standards and claimed $300 million in transactions in 2023, consistent returns exceeding 20% per year and nearly 74% total growth over 24 months.

All Rhew’s representations were false. Instead of investing victims’ funds, Rhew used the money on personal expenses, including the purchases of a boat, a beach house and luxury cars, and to make “interest” and “withdrawal” payments to other victim-investors.

For 2018 through 2022, Rhew willfully failed to report nearly $9 million in income to the IRS.

He has agreed to pay almost $14.9 in restitution to the victims and $3,056,936 to the IRS.

Sentencing is Aug. 22. Rhew faces up to 20 years in prison, supervised release of up to three years and monetary penalties.

Miami: In related cases, three tax preparers have pleaded guilty to tax crimes connected to a scheme to prepare false returns.

Franklin Carter Jr., of Sanford, Florida, pleaded guilty to conspiring to defraud the U.S. and to not filing returns. Jonathan Carrillo, of St. Cloud, Florida, pleaded guilty to conspiring to defraud the U.S. and assisting in the preparation of false returns.

Diandre Mentor has pleaded guilty to conspiring to defraud the United States by filing false returns for clients.

From 2016 to 2020, Carter and Carrillo owned and operated Neighborhood Advance Tax, a tax prep business with a dozen offices throughout Florida. Mentor worked there between January 2017 and 2019. The conspirators inflated client refunds by fabricated deductions and held periodic training to teach Neighborhood employees how to prepare fraudulent returns.

In 2020, Mentor and his co-conspirators also started Smart Tax & Finance, which  expanded to 12 franchise locations throughout South and Central Florida. The next year, Carter, Carrillo and the co-conspirators started Taxmates, which operated out of the same offices that Neighborhood had used. Both firms prepared false returns for clients; many of those returns included false deductions.

The three also continued to teach franchise owners and employees how to prepare false returns for clients. In addition, Carter did not file personal tax returns for 2019 through 2021.

Carter and Carrillo caused a tax loss to the IRS exceeding $12 million. Mentor caused a tax loss to the IRS totaling $3,090,077.

Several co-conspirators have also pleaded guilty, including Abryle de la Cruz, Emmanuel Almonor, Adon Hemley and Isaiah Hayes.

Carter and Carrillo each face up to five years in prison for the conspiracy charge. Carter faces up to a year for each failure to file a return charge; Carillo faces a maximum of three years for each charge of assisting in the preparation of a false return; Mentor faces up to five years in prison. All three also face a period of supervised release, restitution and monetary penalties.

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Small business wage growth slowed in May

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Hourly earnings growth for small business employees dropped to a four-year low at 2.77% in May, while job growth was flat, according to payroll company Paychex.

The Paychex Small Business Employment Watch, which tracks U.S. business with fewer than 50 employees, found that three-month annualized hourly earnings growth fell to its lowest level in May (2.45%) since December 2020, when it was 1.66%.

“There seems to be a very limited amount of dynamism in small businesses right now,” said Frank Fiorille, vice president of risk management, compliance and data analytics at Paychex. “We’re not seeing blockbuster or torrid hiring, but we’re also not seeing major layoffs either. They’re in a frozen state. They don’t want to take any risks.”

The Midwest has represented the strongest region for small business employment growth for the past year, while the West continues to lag all regions and reported an index level below 100 on Paychex’s Small Business Jobs Index for the 14th consecutive month in May. 

“The Midwest is doing well, and the coasts are lagging a little bit,” said Fiorille. 

Construction dropped 0.68 percentage points to a jobs index of 99.69 in May, marking its lowest level since March 2021. Job growth in the leisure and hospitality industry remained in last place among sectors for the fourth month in a row at 98.18 in May.

Uncertainty over tariffs and the massive tax bill in Congress seem to be holding back small businesses, and accountants should keep a close eye on developments to advise their small business clients. “That’s the ballgame right now for everybody to watch,” said Fiorille.

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Tesla has $1.2B at risk from EV credits cut in Trump tax bill

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Tesla Inc.’s shares sank as Elon Musk and President Donald Trump’s simmering feud devolved into a public war of words between two of the world’s most powerful people.

Trump on Thursday said he was “very disappointed” by the Tesla chief executive officer’s criticism of the president’s signature tax policy bill. Musk fired back in several social media posts, saying in one that “without me, Trump would have lost the election.”  

The president later floated terminating federal contracts and subsidies extended to Musk’s companies and said that he had asked the Tesla and SpaceX leader to leave his administration, which Musk said was a “lie.” 

Tesla’s shares dropped 14% on Thursday in New York, the stock’s biggest decline since March 10. The rout erased about $150 billion from the electric-vehicle maker’s market value. 

The spectacle of the world’s richest person and the leader of the free world lobbing insults toward one another on social media marks a stunning breakup of a once formidable political alliance. 

Musk spent more than $250 million to help secure Trump’s return to the White House. Trump in turn deputized Musk to lead a sweeping effort to slash government spending and reshape the federal bureaucracy before the mercurial billionaire stepped back from that role last week.

At the same time, policies advanced by Trump and Republican lawmakers put billions of dollars at risk for Tesla, by far Musk’s largest business.

Trump’s massive tax bill would largely eliminate a credit worth as much as $7,500 for buyers of some Tesla models and other electric vehicles by the end of this year, seven years ahead of schedule. That would translate to a roughly $1.2 billion hit to Tesla’s full-year profit, according to JPMorgan analysts.

After leaving his formal advisory role in the White House last week, Musk has been on a mission to block the president’s signature tax bill that he described as a “disgusting abomination.” The world’s richest person has been lobbying Republican lawmakers — including making a direct appeal to House Speaker Mike Johnson — to preserve the valuable EV tax credits in the legislation.

Separate legislation passed by the Senate attacking California’s EV sales mandates poses another $2 billion headwind for Tesla’s sales of regulatory credits, according to JPMorgan. 

Taken together, those measures threaten roughly half of the more than $6 billion in earnings before interest and taxes that Wall Street expects Tesla to post this year, analysts led by Ryan Brinkman said in a May 30 report.

Tesla didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

The House-passed tax bill would aggressively phase-out tax credits for the production of clean electricity, and other sources years earlier than scheduled. It also includes stringent restrictions on the use of Chinese components and materials that analysts said would render the credits useless and limits the ability of companies to sell the tax credits to third parties.

Tesla’s division focused on solar systems and batteries separately criticized the Republican bill for gutting clean energy tax credits, saying that “abruptly ending” the incentives would threaten U.S. energy independence and the reliability of the power grid.

The clean energy and EV policies under threat were largely enacted as part of former President Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act. The law was designed to encourage companies to build a domestic supply chain for clean energy and electric vehicles, giving companies more money if they produce more batteries and EVs in the U.S. Tesla has a broad domestic footprint, including car factories in Texas and California, a lithium refinery and battery plants.

With those Biden-era policies in place, U.S. EV sales rose 7.3% to a record 1.3 million vehicles last year, according to Cox Automotive data.

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