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Investing in Trump Media is an ‘act of faith,’ expert says. Here are risks

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A screen displays trading information about shares of Truth Social and Trump Media & Technology Group outside the Nasdaq MarketSite in New York City on March 26, 2024.

Brendan Mcdermid | Reuters

Trump Media has become the latest stock to watch.

But rather than a meme stock — an investment that becomes popular for individual investors through social media — the company is more of a personality stock, according to John Rekenthaler, vice president of research at Morningstar.

“The reason that people own this stock is because, in one way or another, they support Donald Trump,” Rekenthaler said.

“It’s an act of faith,” he said.

The former president is the majority shareholder in Trump Media, which trades under the initials of his name, DJT, on the Nasdaq. The stock got off to a rocky start this week, with two straight days of losses, though it was up more than 20% on Wednesday afternoon.

The company’s mission statement is to end “Big Tech’s assault on free speech by opening up the internet and giving the American people their voices back,” according to its website.

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The closest company comparison to Trump Media is Tesla, according to Rekenthaler. He said investors backed Tesla because they believed in Elon Musk, which helped send the company to its peak value in 2021.

A key difference is that Tesla was a “much larger company,” according to Rekenthaler, who on April 10 wrote an op-ed criticizing Trump Media’s valuation.

Trump Media is currently a $4 million business through social media, he said. Meanwhile, the company is currently valued at more than $3 billion, down from around $9 billion when it came out.

“The problem is there is still more room to fall,” Rekenthaler said.

Like investors in any publicly traded company, Trump Media’s shareholders are hoping to eventually redeem their shares for more than what they paid. However, there is no guarantee of that happening, Rekenthaler said.

Other investors have chosen to bet against the stock through short selling. That, too, can be “dangerous,” Rekenthaler said.

“This stock is just so unpredictable,” Rekenthaler said. “It certainly could go up in the short term and hurt the shorts.”

The company responded to a request for comment by referring to its frequently asked questions webpage: Trump Media outlined the risk factors to its business in a recent filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission tied to its public stock listing. Among them are risks related to the former president, including his reputation and popularity; the possibility of his death, incarceration or incapacity; or the possibility that his relationship with the company could be discontinued or limited.

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Investing in a company that is tied to a prominent celebrity carries certain risks, noted Preston D. Cherry, PhD, founder and president of Concurrent Financial Planning in Green Bay, Wisconsin.

The alignment with a well-known figure can lead you to trust a company more as a result, said Cherry, who’s also a certified financial planner. But if the celebrity and company part ways — as with Adidas and Ye, also known as Kanye West, or Weight Watchers and Oprah — that can affect the investment prospects.

Moreover, investors may get caught up in the enthusiasm around a newly public stock, Cherry said.

“Retail investors have a sense of FOMO or fear of missing out specifically with popular IPOs [initial public offerings],” Cherry said.

That can lead to those companies becoming overvalued when they come out as a result of that hype, he said.

Because the early-stage company’s stock may be highly volatile, average investors may face a lot of danger if they’re tempted to day trade or short it, said CFP Ted Jenkin, CEO and founder of oXYGen Financial, a financial advisory and wealth management firm based in Atlanta.

“These kinds of stocks are speculative at best,” Jenkin said.

Both Cherry and Jenkin are members of the CNBC FA Council.

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Here’s why the U.S. retirement system isn’t among the world’s best

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The U.S. retirement system doesn’t get high marks relative to other nations.

In fact, the U.S. got a C+ grade and ranked No. 29 out of 48 global pension systems in 2024, according to the annual Mercer CFA Institute Global Pension Index, released Tuesday. It analyzed both public and private sources of retirement funds, like Social Security and 401(k) plans.

A similar index compiled by Natixis Investment Management puts the U.S. at No. 22 out of 44 nations this year. Its position has declined from a decade ago, when it ranked No. 18.

“I think [a C+ grade] would describe a rating where there is a lot of room for improvement,” said Christine Mahoney, global retirement leader at Mercer, a consulting firm.

The Netherlands placed No. 1, followed by Iceland, Denmark and Israel, respectively, which all received “A” grades, according to Mercer. Singapore, Australia, Finland and Norway got a B+.

Fourteen nations — Chile, Sweden, the United Kingdom, Switzerland, Uruguay, New Zealand, Belgium, Mexico, Canada, Ireland, France, Germany, Croatia and Portugal — got a B.

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Of course, retirement systems differ since they address a nation’s unique economies, social and cultural norms, politics and history, according to the Mercer report. However, there are certain traits that can generally determine how well older citizens fare financially, the report found.

The U.S. system is often referred to as a three-legged stool, consisting of Social Security, workplace retirement plans and individual savings.

The lackluster standing by the U.S. in the world is largely due to a sizable gap in the share of people who have access to a workplace retirement plan, and for the ample opportunities for “leakage” of savings from accounts before retirement, Mahoney said.

Employers aren’t required to offer a retirement plan like a pension or 401(k) plan to workers. About 72% of workers in the private sector had access to one in March 2024, and about half (53%) participated, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.  

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“The people who have [a plan], it’s probably pretty good on average, but you have a lot of people who have nothing,” Mahoney said.

By contrast, some of the highest-ranked countries like the Netherlands “cover essentially all workers in the country,” said Graham Pearce, Mercer’s global defined benefit segment leader.

Additionally, top-rated nations generally have greater restrictions relative to the U.S. on how much cash citizens can withdraw before retirement, Pearce explained.

American workers can withdraw their 401(k) savings when they switch jobs, for example.

About 40% of workers who leave a job cash out “prematurely” each year, according to the Employee Benefit Research Institute. A separate academic study from 2022 examined more than 160,000 U.S. employees who left their jobs from 2014 to 2016, and found that about 41% cashed out at least some of their 401(k) — and 85% completely drained their balance.

Employers are also legally allowed to cash out small 401(k) balances and send workers a check.

While the U.S. might offer more flexibility to people who need to tap their funds in case of emergencies, for example, this so-called leakage also reduces the amount of savings they have available in old age, experts said.

“If you’re someone who moves through jobs, has low savings rates and leakage, it makes it difficult to build your own retirement nest egg,” said David Blanchett, head of retirement research at PGIM, Prudential’s investment management arm.

Social Security is considered a major income source for most older Americans, providing the majority of their retirement income for a significant portion of the population over 65 years old.

To that point, about nine out of 10 people aged 65 and older were receiving a Social Security benefit as of June 30, according to the Social Security Administration.

Social Security benefits are generally tied to a worker’s wage and work history, Blanchett said. For example, the amount is pegged to a worker’s 35-highest years of pay.

While benefits are progressive, meaning lower earners generally replace a bigger share of their pre-retirement paychecks than higher earners, Social Security’s minimum benefit is lesser than other nations, like those in Scandinavia, with public retirement programs, Blanchett said.

“It’s less of a safety net,” he said.

“There’s something to be said that, as a public pension benefit, increasing the minimum benefit for all retirees would strengthen the retirement resiliency for all Americans,” Blanchett said.

That said, policymakers are trying to resolve some of these issues.

For example, 17 states have established so-called auto-IRA programs in a bid to close the coverage gap, according to the Georgetown University Center for Retirement Initiatives.

These programs generally require employers who don’t offer a workplace retirement plan to automatically enroll workers into the state plan and facilitate payroll deduction.

A recent federal law known as Secure 2.0 also expanded aspects of the retirement system. For example, it made more part-time workers eligible to participate in a 401(k) and raised the dollar threshold for employers to cash out balances for departing workers.

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Buying a home? Here are key steps to consider from top-ranked advisors

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Buying a home is often the biggest financial decision you’ll ever make.

It’s not just about choosing a place to live; it’s about making a long-term investment that will impact your financial future for years to come.

Therefore, if you are looking to buy a home, there are certain steps you should take to prepare for the purchase, according to several advisors ranked in CNBC’s 2024 Financial Advisor 100 List.

“Number one is doing that initial homework and financial planning,” said Brian Brady, vice president at Obermeyer Wood Investment Counsel in Aspen, Colorado. The firm ranks No. 23 on the 2024 CNBC FA 100 list. 

Most important, it has to be a “smart financial decision” that makes the most sense for you, explained Stephen Cohn, co-founder and co-president of Sage Financial Group in West Conshohocken, Pennsylvania. The firm ranks No. 61 on the 2024 CNBC FA 100 list.

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“I run into a lot of first-time homebuyers, friends, kids, acquaintances. They fall in love with the house, and it may not make sense for them financially,” said Ron Brock, managing director and chief financial officer at Sheaff Brock Investment Advisors in Indianapolis, Indiana. The firm ranks No. 7 on the 2024 CNBC FA 100 list.

He tells them: “Just be smart. Don’t be house poor.”

Here are some key steps to consider if you plan to buy a home:

1. Have a strong credit score

Make sure you have strong credit, said Shaun Williams, private wealth advisor and partner at Paragon Capital Management in Denver, Colorado. The firm ranks No. 38 on the 2024 CNBC FA 100 list. 

“The higher the credit score, the better the terms you’re going to get on the loan, and the lower the interest rate will be,” said Ryan D. Dennehy, a financial advisor at California Financial Advisors in San Ramon, California. The firm ranks No. 13 on the 2024 CNBC FA 100 list. 

For example, a FICO score ranging 760 to 850 might qualify for a 6.226% annual percentage rate, according to Bankate.com. That can translate to a $1,842 monthly payment, Bankrate found.

On the other hand, a FICO score of 620-639 might get a 7.815% APR, roughly amounting to a $2,163 monthly mortgage payment, per Bankrate examples. They are based on national averages for a 30-year fixed mortgage loan of $300,000.

You can start the process by paying down any existing debts that you have on time and in full, and avoid new loans as you get closer to buying a home, experts say.

2. Start saving for the down payment

While a 20% down payment is not required to buy a house, buyers try to put more money upfront to avoid mortgage insurance costs and potentially lower monthly payments.

In the third quarter of the year, the average down payment was 14.5%, and a median of $30,300, Realtor.com told CNBC.

In order to start saving for a down payment, you need to figure out your cash flow, or how much money is coming in versus going out every month, said Steven LaRosa, director and senior portfolio manager at Edgemoor Investment Advisors based in Bethesda, Maryland. The firm ranks No. 14 on the 2024 CNBC FA 100 list.

Also, try to maximize how much money you can save or put away towards the down payment, said LaRosa.

3. Boost your emergency savings

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3. Think about the lifestyle you want

Ask yourself what kind of lifestyle you look forward to, said Brady.

“Are you looking for a condo? Do you want a single-family home?” he said. 

Then you can focus on factors like location and price, said Brady. 

Meanwhile, some of the additional costs that come with owning a house are driven by where you live, like property taxes, utility and insurance costs, he said. 

In some areas, “it’s next to impossible” to get home insurance, said Brady. “And if you can [get home insurance] you’re paying quite a bit.

Nearly three-quarters, or 70.3%, of Florida homeowners and 51% of California homeowners say they or the area they live in has been affected by rising home insurance costs or changes in coverage in the past year, according to Redfin, an online real estate brokerage firm.

5. Factor in other homeownership costs

Owning a home goes far beyond the monthly mortgage payment.

You need to factor in additional costs, experts say. 

To that point, the costs of homeownership adds up to an average $18,118 annually, or $1,510 a month, according to a report by Bankrate.com. The national figure includes the average costs of property taxes, homeowner’s insurance, and electricity, internet and cable bills. Maintenance was estimated at 2% a year of the home value.

“Those are very significant additions that sometimes people glance over and don’t put enough weight on,” said Cohn.

As such costs are unlikely to decline as time goes on, it’s important to have an emergency fund for homeownership costs, experts say.

6. How long you plan to stay in the house

“We like to use a five to seven year minimum,” said Cohn. The longer you’re in a house, the more likely the fixed costs will amortize, or pay off, over time, he said. 

Additionally, in the early years of the loan, you’re mostly paying the interest rate, and not the loan itself, experts say. 

“You’re not accumulating any equity from putting money into the mortgage in the first 5 to 7 years,” said Cohn.

“If you start looking at how much goes to principal and how much goes to interest in the first several years, it’s probably all interest,” said Brock.

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What to do if you can’t pay taxes on Oct. 15 tax extension deadline

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The tax extension deadline has arrived and there are options if you still can’t pay your balance, tax experts say.

About 19 million U.S. taxpayers filed for an extension by the April 15 tax deadline, which bumped the filing due date to Oct. 15. But taxpayers affected by natural disasters may have even more time, with new deadlines ranging between Nov. 1 and as late as May 1, 2025, depending on location.

However, for federally declared disasters after April 15, filers were not granted more time to pay their tax bill. Penalties and interest on unpaid balances started accruing after the April 15 deadline.

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Many taxpayers wrongly assume that a tax extension provides more time to pay, experts say.

“That’s a surprise to a lot of people,” said Josh Youngblood, an enrolled agent and owner of The Youngblood Group, a Dallas-based tax firm. 

If you missed the tax deadline, the late payment penalty is 0.5% of your unpaid balance per month or partial month, capped at 25%. You will also incur interest on unpaid taxes.

By comparison, the failure-to-file penalty is 5% of unpaid taxes per month or partial month, up to 25%.

You have ‘various payment options’

The IRS has options if you can’t pay your taxes, “but you have to be current on your filing requirement,” said Tom O’Saben, an enrolled agent and director of tax content and government relations at the National Association of Tax Professionals.

After filing, there are “various payment options” online, and many filers will receive an immediate acceptance or rejection of payment plan requests without calling the IRS, according to the agency.

“If you owe less than $50,000, establishing a payment plan with the IRS is almost going to be automatic,” O’Saben said.

IRS online payment plans, or “installment agreements,” include:

  • Short-term payment plan: This may be an option if you owe less than $100,000, including tax, penalties and interest. You have up to 180 days to pay in full.
  • Long-term payment plan: This may be available if your balance is less than $50,000, including tax, penalties and interest. You must pay monthly, and you have up to 72 months to pay off the balance.

Although the late-payment penalty and interest will continue to accrue, an IRS payment plan could cut your late-payment fee in half while the agreement is in effect, according to the IRS.

One downside of IRS payment plans is future tax refunds could be used to offset your unpaid balance, O’Saben said.

‘Don’t ignore it because it won’t go away’

If you have unpaid taxes, you can expect notices from the IRS, and communication with the agency is key, experts say.

“Don’t ignore it because it won’t go away,” Youngblood said. “I’ve had clients come in, and they have a whole pile of unopened IRS letters.” 

“The IRS is not as bad as they think,” he added. “They actually want to work with people.”

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