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Wall Street pushes out rate-cut expectations, sees risk of no action until 2025

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Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks during a House Financial Services Committee hearing on the “Federal Reserve’s Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report” on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., March 6, 2024. 

Bonnie Cash | Reuters

If there was any doubt before, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has pretty much cemented the likelihood that there won’t be interest rate reductions anytime soon.

Now, Wall Street is wondering if the central bank will cut at all this year.

That’s because Powell on Tuesday said there’s been “a lack of further progress” on lowering inflation back to the Fed’s 2% target, meaning “it’s likely to take longer than expected” to get enough confidence to start easing back on policy.

“They’ve got the economy right where they want it. They now are just focused on inflation numbers. The question is, what’s the bar here?” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “My sense is they need two, probably three consecutive months of inflation numbers that are consistent with that 2% target. If that’s the bar, the earliest they can get there is September. I just don’t see rate cuts before that.”

With most readings putting inflation around 3% and not moving appreciably for several months, the Fed finds itself in a tough slog on the last mile toward its goal.

Market pricing for rate cuts has been highly volatile in recent weeks as Wall Street has chased fluctuating Fed rhetoric. As of Wednesday afternoon, traders were pricing in about a 71% probability that the central bank indeed most likely will wait until September, with the implied chance of a July cut at 44%, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch gauge.

As for a second rate cut, there was a tilt toward one in December, but that remains an open question.

“Right now, my base case is two — one in September and one in December, but I could easily see one rate cut, in November,” said Zandi, who thinks the presidential election could factor into the equation for Fed officials who insist they are not swayed by politics.

‘Real risk’ of no cuts until 2025

The uncertainty has spread through the Street. The market-implied odds for no cuts this year stood around 11% on Wednesday, but the possibility can’t be ignored at this point.

For instance, Bank of America economists said there is a “real risk” that the Fed won’t cut until March 2025 “at the earliest,” though for now they’re still going with a December forecast for the one and only cut this year. Markets at the onset of 2024 had been pricing in at least six quarter-percentage point reductions.

“We think policymakers will not feel comfortable starting the cutting cycle in June or even September,” BofA economist Stephen Juneau said in a client note. “In short, this is the reality of a data-dependent Fed. With the inflation data exceeding expectations to start the year, it comes as little surprise that the Fed would push back on any urgency to cut, especially given the strong activity data.”

To be sure, there’s still hope that the inflation data turns lower in the next few months and gives the central bank room to ease.

Citigroup, for example, still expects the Fed to begin easing in June or July and to cut rates several times this year. Powell and his fellow policymakers “will be pleasantly surprised” by inflation data in coming months, wrote Citi economist Andrew Hollenhorst, who added that the Fed “is poised to cut rates on either slower year-on-year core inflation or any signs of weakness in activity data.”

Elsewhere, Goldman Sachs pushed back the month that it expects policy to ease, but only to July from June, as “the broader disinflationary narrative remains intact,” wrote Jan Hatzius, the firm’s chief economist.

Danger looms

If that is true, then “the pause on rate cuts would be lifted and the Fed would move ahead,” wrote Krishna Guha, head of the global policy and central bank strategy team at Evercore ISI. However, Guha also noted the wide breadth of policy possibilities that Powell opened in his remarks Tuesday.

“We think it still leaves the Fed uncomfortably data-point dependent, and highly vulnerable to being skittled from three to two to one cut if near-term inflation data does not cooperate,” he added.

The possibility of a stubborn Fed raises the possibility of a policy mistake. Despite the resilient economy, higher rates for longer could threaten labor market stability, not to mention areas of the finance sector such as regional banks that are susceptible to duration risk posed to fixed income portfolios.

Zandi said the Fed already should have been cutting with inflation well off the boil from its mid-2022 highs, adding that factors related to housing are essentially the only thing standing between the central bank and its 2% inflation goal.

A Fed policy mistake “is the most significant risk to the economy at this point. They’ve already achieved their mandate on full employment. They’ve all but achieved their mandate on inflation,” Zandi said.

“Stuff happens, and I think we need to be humble here regarding the financial system,” he added. “They run the risk they are going to break something. And to what end? If I were on the committee, I would be strongly arguing we should go already.”

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Trade tensions not stopping Chinese companies from pushing into U.S.

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The Insta360 One R displayed in a container of water at the Insta360 booth during CES 2020 at the Las Vegas Convention Center on Jan. 8, 2020.

David Becker | Getty Images News | Getty Images

BEIJING — Chinese companies are so intent on global expansion that even the biggest stock offering to date on Shanghai’s tech-heavy STAR board counts the U.S. as one of its biggest markets, on par with China.

Shenzhen-based camera company Insta360, a rival to GoPro, raised 1.938 billion yuan ($270 million) in a Shanghai listing Wednesday under the name Arashi Vision. Shares soared by 274%, giving the company a market value of 71 billion yuan ($9.88 billion).

The United States, Europe and mainland China each accounted for just over 23% of revenue last year, according to Insta360, whose 360-degree cameras officially started Apple Store sales in 2018. The company sells a variety of cameras — priced at several hundred dollars — coupled with video-editing software.

Co-founder Max Richter said in an interview Tuesday that he expects U.S. demand to remain strong and dismissed concerns about geopolitical risks.

“We are staying ahead just by investing into user-centric research and development, and monitoring market trends that ultimately meet the consumer[‘s] needs,” he told CNBC ahead of the STAR board listing.

China launched the Shanghai STAR Market in July 2019 just months after Chinese President Xi Jinping announced plans for the board. The Nasdaq-style tech board was established to support high-growth tech companies while raising requirements for the investor base to limit speculative activity.

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In 2019, only 12% of companies on the STAR board said at least half of their revenue came from outside China, according to CNBC analysis of data accessed via Wind Information. In 2024, with hundreds more companies listed, that share had climbed to more than 14%, the data showed.

“We are just seeing the tip of the iceberg. More and more capable Chinese firms are going global,” said King Leung, global head of financial services, fintech and sustainability at InvestHK.

Leung pointed to the growing global business of Chinese companies such as battery giant CATL, which listed in Hong Kong last month. “There are a lot of more tier-two and tier-three companies that are equally capable,” he said.

InvestHK is a Hong Kong government department that promotes investment in the region. It has organized trips to help connect mainland Chinese businesses with overseas opportunities, including one to the Middle East last month.

Roborock, a robotic vacuum cleaner company also listed on the STAR board, announced this month it plans to list in Hong Kong. More than half of the company’s revenue last year came from overseas markets.

At the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas this year, Roborock showed off a vacuum with a robotic arm for automatically removing obstacles while cleaning floors. The device was subsequently launched in the U.S. for $2,600.

Other consumer-focused Chinese companies also remain unfazed by heighted tensions between China and the U.S.

In November, Chinese home appliance company Hisense said it aimed to become the top seller of television sets in the U.S. in two years. And last month, China-based Bc Babycare announced its official expansion into the U.S. and touted its global supply chain as a way to offset tariff risks.

New phase of expansion

Chinese companies have been pushing overseas in the last several years, partly because growth at home has slowed. Consumer demand has remained lackluster since the Covid-19 pandemic.

But the expansion trend is now evolving into a third stage in which the businesses look to build international brands on their own with offices in different regions hiring local employees, said Charlie Chen, managing director and head of Asia research at China Renaissance Securities.

He said that’s a change from the earliest years when Chinese companies primarily manufactured products for foreign brands to sell, and a subsequent phase in which Chinese companies had joint ventures with foreign companies.

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Insta360 primarily manufactures out of Shenzhen, but has offices in Berlin, Tokyo and Los Angeles, Richter said. He said the Los Angeles office focuses on services and marketing — the company held its first big offline product launch in New York’s Grand Central Terminal in April.

Chen also expects the next phase of Chinese companies going global will sell different kinds of products. He pointed out that those that had gone global primarily sold home appliances and electronics, but are now likely to expand significantly into toys.

Already, Beijing-based Pop Mart has become a global toy player, with its Labubu figurine series gaining popularity worldwide.

Pop Mart’s total sales, primarily domestic, were 4.49 billion yuan in 2021. In 2024, overseas sales alone surpassed that to hit 5.1 billion yuan, up 373% from a year ago, while mainland China sales climbed to 7.97 billion yuan.

“It established another Pop Mart versus domestic sales in 2021,” said Chris Gao, head of China discretionary consumer at CLSA.

The Hong Kong-listed retailer doesn’t publicly share much about its global store expansion plans or existing locations, but an independent blogger compiled a list of at least 17 U.S. store locations as of mid-May, most of which opened in the last two years.

The toy company has been “very good” at developing or acquiring the rights to characters, Gao said. She expects its global growth to continue as Pop Mart plans to open more stores worldwide, and as consumers turn more to such character-driven products during times of stress and macroeconomic uncertainty.

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State AGs urge Meta to clean up platform

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New York Attorney General Letitia James speaks during a press conference at the office of the Attorney General on July 13, 2022 in New York City.

Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images

A group of 42 state attorneys general are calling on Meta to curb the rise of investment scams on Facebook that fraudulently use the images of Warren Buffett and other famous figures, New York Attorney General Letitia James said Wednesday.

James said in a news release criminals are consistently evading Meta’s automated and human review systems to post fake ads that leave retail investors saddled with millions of dollars in losses. Her office continues to see the scams months after reporting them to Meta, she added.

The ads, touting access to Buffett, Elon Musk or Ark Invest’s Cathie Wood, lure Facebook users to join chat groups on Meta-owned messaging platform, WhatsApp, according to the New York AG.

There, users are unwittingly involved in alleged pump-and-dump schemes, where criminals boost the price of thinly traded stocks and quickly sell for a profit, leaving small investors with losses.

Meta, the parent company of Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp, is struggling to control the rise of cyber scams on its platforms and is a “cornerstone of the internet fraud economy,” the Wall Street Journal reported last month. The problem is global in nature, with one notable lawsuit being brought by an Australian billionaire who alleges that Meta’s artificial intelligence-run advertising program created and amplified false ads using his likeness.

“Thousands of Facebook users have lost hundreds of millions of dollars to these scams and Meta must do more to stop these fraudulent ads from running on its platforms,” James said. “I am leading a bipartisan coalition calling on Meta to step up its review of ads to stop these scams. I also urge all New Yorkers to be extra careful before putting their money in investments they see advertised on social media.”

Source: New York State Attorney General’s office

The AGs urged Meta to boost its policing of ads, including with more human review, saying that unless they curb the scams, Meta should stop running investment ads altogether.

Joining James were AGs from states including California, Connecticut, Georgia, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey and Pennsylvania.

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Stocks making the biggest moves midday: OKLO, CHWY, QUBT, GTLB

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