Connect with us

Finance

China’s fiscal stimulus is losing its effectiveness, S&P says

Published

on

Pictured here is a commercial residential property under construction on March 20, 2024, in Nanning, capital of the Guangxi Zhuang autonomous region in south China.

Future Publishing | Future Publishing | Getty Images

BEIJING — China’s fiscal stimulus is losing its effectiveness and is more of a strategy to buy time for industrial and consumption policies, S&P Global Ratings senior analyst Yunbang Xu said in a report Thursday.

The analysis used growth in government spending to measure fiscal stimulus.

“In our view, fiscal stimulus is a buy-time strategy that could have some longer-term benefits, if projects are focused on reviving consumption or industrial upgrades that increase value-add,” Xu said.

China has set a target of around 5% GDP growth this year, a goal many analysts have said is ambitious given the level of announced stimulus. The head of the top economic planning agency said in March that China would “strengthen macroeconomic policies” and increase coordination among fiscal, monetary, employment, industrial and regional policies.

High debt levels limit how much fiscal stimulus a local government can undertake, regardless of whether a city is considered a high or low-income region, the S&P report said.

Public debt as a share of GDP can range from around 20% for the high-income city of Shenzhen, to 140% for the far smaller, low-income city of Bazhong in southwestern Sichuan province, the report said.

92% of investment funds have increased their exposure to China: HSBC

“Given fiscal constraints and diminishing effectiveness, we expect local governments will focus on reducing red tape and taking other measures to improve business environments and support long-term growth and living standards,” S&P’s Xu said.

“Investment is less effective amid [the] drastic property sector slowdown,” Xu added.

Fixed asset investment for the year so far picked up pace in March versus the first two months of the year, thanks to an acceleration of investment in manufacturing, according to official data released this week. Investment in infrastructure slowed its growth, while that into real estate dropped further.

The Chinese government earlier this year announced plans to bolster domestic demand with subsidies and other incentives for equipment upgrades and consumer product trade-ins. The measures are officially expected to create well over 5 trillion yuan ($704.23 billion) in annual spending on equipment.

Officials told reporters last week that on the fiscal front, the central government would provide “strong support” for such upgrades.

S&P found that local governments’ fiscal stimulus has generally been bigger and more effective in richer cities, based on data from 2020 to 2022.

“Higher-income cities have a lead because they are less vulnerable to declines in property markets, have stronger industrial bases, and their consumption is more resilient in downturns,” Xu said in the report. “Industry, consumption and investment will remain the key growth drivers going forward.”

“Higher-tech sectors will continue to drive China’s industrial upgrade and anchor long-term economic growth,” Xu said. “That said, overcapacity in some sectors could spark price pain in the near term.”

Continue Reading

Finance

‘Fast Money’ trader Tim Seymour

Published

on

Fast Money” trader Tim Seymour wants to help investors avoid common money traps that could leave them exposed to losses, particularly in a volatile market.

So, he’s out with a shortlist of four tips to deliver some peace of mind when things are going south.

Tip No. 1: Don’t have more money in the market than you can stomach.

Whether it is margin calls or anxiety about losing money you can’t afford to lose, bad decisions are often made during desperation.

Tip No. 2: Don’t hope that you get back to breakeven.

If you’re only holding a long position because you don’t want to lose money on the trade, you risk losing more.

Bottom line: Own a stock based on merit, not hope.

Tip No. 3: Don’t assume yesterday’s investment rational will work tomorrow.

Ask yourself, “Has something changed in the fundamental case or is it a case of market volatility?” If something changed, make adjustments.

Tip No. 4: Don’t cut your flowers and keep your weeds.

Often, the highest quality companies will outperform in a down market. Bad position? Circle back to No. 2.

To get more personalized investment strategies, join us for our next “Fast Money” Live event on Thursday, June 5 at the Nasdaq in Times Square.

Continue Reading

Finance

Powell indicates tariffs could pose a two-pronged policy challenge for the Fed

Published

on

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell expressed concern in a speech Wednesday that the central bank could find itself in a dilemma between controlling inflation and supporting economic growth.

With uncertainty elevated over what impact President Donald Trump’s tariffs will have, the central bank leader said that while he expects higher inflation and lower growth, it’s unclear where the Fed will need to devote greater focus.

“We may find ourselves in the challenging scenario in which our dual-mandate goals are in tension,” Powell said in prepared remarks before the Economic Club of Chicago. “If that were to occur, we would consider how far the economy is from each goal, and the potentially different time horizons over which those respective gaps would be anticipated to close.”

The Fed is tasked with ensuring stable prices and full employment, and economists including those at the Fed see threats to both from the levies. Tariffs essentially act as a tax on imports, though their direct link to inflation historically has been spotty.

In a question-and-answer session after his speech, Powell said tariffs are “likely to move us further away from our goals … probably for the balance of this year.”

Powell gave no indication on where he sees interest rates headed, but noted that, “For the time being, we are well positioned to wait for greater clarity before considering any adjustments to our policy stance.”

Stocks hit session lows as Powell spoke while Treasury yields turned lower.

In the case of higher inflation, the Fed would keep interest rates steady or even increase them to dampen demand. In the case of slower growth, the Fed might be persuaded to lower interest rates. Powell emphasized the importance to keeping inflation expectations in check.

Markets expect the Fed to start reducing rates again in June and to enact three or four quarter-percentage-point cuts by the end of 2025, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch gauge.

Fed officials generally consider tariffs to be a one-time hit to prices, but the expansive nature of the Trump duties could alter that trend.

Powell noted that survey- and market-based measures of near-term inflation are on the rise, though the longer-term outlook remains close to the Fed’s 2% goal. The Fed’s key inflation measure is expected to show a rate of 2.6% for March, he said.

“Tariffs are highly likely to generate at least a temporary rise in inflation,” said Powell. “The inflationary effects could also be more persistent. Avoiding that outcome will depend on the size of the effects, on how long it takes for them to pass through fully to prices, and, ultimately, on keeping longer-term inflation expectations well anchored.”

The speech was largely similar to one he delivered earlier this month in Virginia, and in some passages verbatim.

Powell noted the threats to growth as well as inflation.

Gross domestic product for the first quarter, which will be reported later this month, is expected to show little growth in the U.S. economy for the January-through-March period.

Indeed, Powell noted “The data in hand so far suggest that growth has slowed in the first quarter from last year’s solid pace. Despite strong motor vehicle sales, overall consumer spending appears to have grown modestly. In addition, strong imports during the first quarter, reflecting attempts by businesses to get ahead of potential tariffs, are expected to weigh on GDP growth.”

Earlier in the day, the Commerce Department reported that retail sales increased a better-than-expected 1.4% in March. The report showed that a large portion of the growth came from car buyers looking to make purchases ahead of the tariffs, though multiple other sectors showed solid gains as well.

Following the report, the Atlanta Fed said it sees GDP growing at a -0.1% pace in Q1 when adjusting for an unusual rise in gold imports and exports. Powell described the economy as being in a “solid position” even with the expected slowdown in growth.

Get Your Ticket to Pro LIVE

Join us at the New York Stock Exchange!
Uncertain markets? Gain an edge with 
CNBC Pro LIVE, an exclusive, inaugural event at the historic New York Stock Exchange.

In today’s dynamic financial landscape, access to expert insights is paramount. As a CNBC Pro subscriber, we invite you to join us for our first exclusive, in-person CNBC Pro LIVE event at the iconic NYSE on Thursday, June 12.

Join interactive Pro clinics led by our Pros Carter Worth, Dan Niles, and Dan Ives, with a special edition of Pro Talks with Tom Lee. You’ll also get the opportunity to network with CNBC experts, talent and other Pro subscribers during an exciting cocktail hour on the legendary trading floor. Tickets are limited!

Continue Reading

Finance

Watch Fed Chair Powell speak live on policy to Economic Club of Chicago

Published

on

[The stream is slated to start at 1:30 p.m. ET. Please refresh the page if you do not see a player above at that time.]

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks Wednesday afternoon at the Economic Club of Chicago, delivering policy remarks with markets on edge over the effect of President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

The appearance will be the last public speech Powell delivers before the central bank’s rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee meets May 6-7. Markets widely expect the FOMC to keep its key overnight borrowing rate unchanged in a range between 4.25% and 4.50%.

However, Powell will have the chance to expound on where the Fed is heading from here. Recent statements from officials largely reflect a view that Fed policy is well positioned to adjust to risks posed by the economy.

In remarks earlier this month, Powell said he sees Trump’s tariffs raising inflation and slowing growth, keeping the Fed in check at least for now.

Read more:
Powell sees tariffs raising inflation and says Fed will wait before further rate moves
Fed Governor Waller sees tariff inflation as ‘transitory’ in ‘tush push’ comparison
Fed’s Kashkari says rising bond yields, falling dollar show investors are moving on from the U.S.

Subscribe to CNBC on YouTube. 

Continue Reading

Trending