Personal Finance
Building up middle class will be a goal. How she may do it
Vice President and 2024 Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris speaks at a campaign event in Atlanta, Georgia, on July 30, 2024.
Elijah Nouvelage | Afp | Getty Images
“Building up the middle class will be a defining goal of my presidency,” Vice President Kamala Harris said at a political event in Atlanta on Tuesday evening.
“When our middle class is strong, American is strong,” the de facto Democratic presidential nominee said to the crowd of more than 10,000 supporters.
“And to keep our middle class strong, families need relief from the high cost of living so that they have a chance, not to just to get by, but to get ahead,” Harris added.
Here’s a look at how Harris may make that happen, based on the policies she advocated for during her first presidential bid in 2020 and as a senator.
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One of Harris’ signature proposals as senator — known as the LIFT the Middle Class Act, or Livable Incomes for Families Today — would have provided an annual tax credit of up to $3,000 per person (or $6,000 per couple) for lower- and middle-income workers, on top of the benefits they already receive.
The size of the credit would have amounted to “significant tax relief,” according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
The Harris campaign did not immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comment.
How the LIFT Act could look today
Since the LIFT Act was first proposed in 2018, the cost of living has only skyrocketed, hitting working-class Americans especially hard.
For these households, “real incomes have declined or remained flat due to inflation,” Tomas Philipson, former chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, told CNBC. That makes many workers feel less confident about their financial standing — and less satisfied with President Joe Biden’s handling of the economy.
At the same time, the rise of artificial intelligence has stoked fears about long-term job security.
In that context, “there’s a good rationale” for refloating a tax credit for those making under a certain income threshold, according to Laura Veldkamp, a professor of finance and economics at Columbia University Business School.
“A lot of people are asking the question, ‘Will AI take my job?’ There are people whose hard-earned skills could be obsolete,” she said. “One way to deal with that is to have more social insurance.”
But a tax credit like LIFT would also be extremely costly, according to Tax Policy Center estimates from 2018 and 2019.
To help cover the tab for the additional financial support, Harris at the time proposed repealing provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act for taxpayers earning more than $100,000.
However, funding such a tax credit now could be tough amid growing concerns over the federal budget deficit. Harris will also need to address trillions of expiring tax cuts enacted by former President Donald Trump before 2025.
How the LIFT Act could support renters
A present-day version of the LIFT Act may benefit renters the most, as many are part of the income category the tax credit is targeting, according to Francesco D’Acunto, an associate professor of finance at Georgetown University.
D’Acunto and other experts suggest the LIFT Act might even be a better aid than the 5% rent cap proposal Biden unveiled on July 16. That proposal calls on Congress to cap rent increases from landlords with 50 existing units or more at 5% or risk losing federal tax breaks.
Harris also supported the idea of rent caps at the campaign rally in Atlanta: “We will take on corporate landlords and cap unfair rent increases.”
However economists have found that such policies inadvertently bring down the available supply of rental units. And rent-control policies could further affect an already, relatively short supply, according to a report by the Federal Reserve published in February.
Rental vacancy rates, or the percentage of all units available for rent, measure the tightness of rental markets; the higher the vacancy rate, the easier it is to find housing, per the Fed.
In 2021, the overall vacancy rate slid to 5.6%, the lowest level since 1984, the central bank found. Supply has since rebounded and plateaued at 6.6% in April, per Census data via the Fed.
While the rent cap may lead consumers to believe prices will not increase significantly, it could have negative side effects, such as landlords taking their properties off the rental market, said Karl Widerquist, an economist and professor of philosophy at Georgetown University.
Plus, landlords who lose those federal tax breaks will still be able to raise rents, said Jacob Channel, a senior economist at LendingTree.
The advantage of the LIFT tax credit, said D’Acunto, is that it doesn’t create the same market distortions the rent cap would ignite. “But instead now on the side of the renter, we are actually very directly helping them to defray the effects of rent inflation,” he said.
Adds Widerquist: “We very often give tax benefits to all homeowners in the name of making it more affordable for people to become homeowners, and we don’t give a similar tax break to people who are paying rent. Those are the people who are struggling to become owners.”
Child tax credit is a ‘huge priority’ for Democrats
LIFT was first proposed years before Congress temporarily expanded the child tax credit during the Covid-19 pandemic, which could now be a bigger priority, experts say.
The American Rescue Plan boosted the child tax credit to $3,000 from $2,000, with an extra $600 for children under age 6 for 2021, and families received up to half upfront via monthly payments. Harris described the child tax credit changes as one of the “most important” and “most impactful” parts of the legislation in a 2021 speech.
The child poverty rate plunged to a historic low of 5.2% in 2021, largely due to the expansion, a Columbia University analysis found. Then in 2022, the rate more than doubled to 12.4% after pandemic relief expired, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
“Whereas the last administration gave tax cuts to billionaires, we gave tax cuts to families through the child tax credit, which cut child poverty in America by half,” Harris said at a political event in North Carolina in late July, before Biden left the race.
Biden’s fiscal year 2025 budget aimed to restore the 2021 child tax credit increase and House lawmakers in January passed a bipartisan tax package, which included a child tax credit expansion. The Senate has scheduled a procedural vote for the bill on Thursday, which will force lawmakers to take a stand on the issue ahead of November.
The enhanced tax break is “a huge priority for Democrats,” said Garrett Watson, senior policy analyst and modeling manager at the Tax Foundation.
Still, it’s unclear whether Harris, now the clear front-runner for the nomination, will renew calls for LIFT or focus on the child tax credit, which has a different design but a similar goal, he said.
“It’s very hard to say whether they would revisit specific policy options from so long ago,” said Columbia Business School economics professor Brett House.
For now, “there are other cultural and political issues that are going to dominate.”
The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at the conclusion of its policy meeting on Wednesday.
In what could be Jerome Powell’s last as chair before President Donald Trump’s yet-to-be-confirmed nominee Kevin Warsh takes the helm, central bankers maintained the federal funds rate in a target range of 3.5% to 3.75%.
Inflation has surged since the war with Iran began, leaving policymakers with limited room to act, according to Sean Snaith, the director of the University of Central Florida’s Institute for Economic Forecasting. “We’re in a kind of suspended animation — between Iran and the Fed transition,” Snaith said.
Before the oil shock, inflation was holding above the Fed’s 2% target but not worsening. Now the jump in energy costs could have longer-term inflationary effects, economists say.
For Americans struggling in the face of higher gas prices and overall affordability challenges, the central bank’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged does little to ease budgetary pressures. “The cavalry isn’t coming anytime soon,” Snaith said.
How the Fed decision impacts you
The Fed’s benchmark sets what banks charge each other for overnight lending, but also has a trickle-down effect on many consumer borrowing and savings rates.
Short-term rates are more closely pegged to the prime rate, which is typically 3 percentage points above the federal funds rate. Longer-term rates, such as home loans, are more influenced by inflation and other economic factors.
Credit cards
Most credit cards have a short-term rate, so they track the Fed’s benchmark.
After the Fed cut rates three times in the second half of 2025, the average annual percentage rate has stayed just under 20%, according to Bankrate.
“Without Fed rate cuts, there’s not much reason to expect meaningful declines anytime soon, so carrying a balance will remain very expensive,” said Matt Schulz, chief credit analyst at LendingTree.
Mortgage rates
Fixed mortgage rates, on the other hand, don’t directly track the Fed but typically follow the lead of long-term Treasury rates.
Concerns about how the Iran war will impact the U.S. economy have already pushed the average rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage up to 6.38% as of Tuesday, from 5.99% at the end of February, according to Mortgage News Daily.
That leaves homeowners with existing low mortgage rates “feeling stuck,” said Michele Raneri, vice president and head of U.S. research and consulting at TransUnion. “Mortgages, more than any other credit type, work on a churn,” she said, referring to how a dip in rates can boost borrowing activity.
Student loans
Federal student loan rates are also fixed and based in part on the 10-year Treasury note, so most borrowers are somewhat shielded from Fed moves and recent economic uncertainty.
Current interest rates on undergraduate federal student loans made through June 30 are 6.39%, according to the U.S. Department of Education. Interest rates for the upcoming school year will be based in part on the May auction of the 10-year note.
Car loans
Auto loan rates are tied to several factors, including the Fed’s benchmark. Because financing costs remain elevated, new car buyers are taking on longer loans to keep their monthly payments manageable, according to the latest data from Edmunds.
Even so, with the rate on a five-year new car loan near 7%, the average monthly payment on a new car rose to $773 in the first quarter of 2026, an all-time high.
“Car buyers are in a tough spot right now because they’re getting squeezed from both ends: high sticker prices and high interest rates, with neither showing any signs of letting up,” said Joseph Yoon, consumer insights analyst at Edmunds.
“Until the rate picture shifts, buyers will keep stretching loan terms to make payments work, which only adds to the total cost of ownership down the road,” Yoon said.
Savings rates
While the Fed has no direct influence on deposit rates, the yields tend to be correlated with changes in the target federal funds rate. So, although rates on certificates of deposit and high-yield savings accounts have fallen from recent highs, they are holding above the annual rate of inflation.
For now, top-yielding online savings accounts and one-year CD rates pay around 4%, according to Bankrate.
“Yields on high-yield savings accounts and certificates of deposit are down from their peaks of a few years ago, but they’re still strong compared to what we’ve seen for most of the past decade,” Schulz said.
Milan Markovic | E+ | Getty Images
The average tax refund is 11.2% higher this season, compared with about the same period in 2025, according to the latest IRS filing data.
As of April 10, the average refund amount for individual filers was $3,397, up from $3,055 about one year ago, the IRS reported on Friday.
The IRS data reflects about 114 million individual returns received, out of about 164 million expected through Tax Day. Next week’s filing update is expected to include data through the April 15 deadline.
President Donald Trump‘s 2025 legislation, rebranded to the “working families tax cuts,” was a key talking point for Republicans on Tax Day.
With the November midterm elections approaching and Republicans defending slim majorities in Congress, many GOP lawmakers have highlighted Trump’s tax breaks and higher average refunds.
Meanwhile, affordability has been top of mind for many Americans amid rising costs of gas, electricity, food and other living expenses.
For filers who expected a refund this season, nearly one-quarter, or 23%, planned to use the funds to pay down credit card debt, and the same share said they would save the payment, according to the CNBC and SurveyMonkey Quarterly Money Survey, released in April. It polled 3,494 U.S. adults at the end of March.
Who benefited from Trump’s ‘big beautiful bill’
“It’s been a great tax season for the American people,” many of whom have benefited from Trump’s tax breaks, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said during a White House press briefing on Wednesday.
More than 53 million filers claimed at least one of Trump’s “signature new tax cuts” — the deductions for tip income, overtime earnings, seniors and auto loan interest — the Department of the Treasury also announced on Wednesday.
Those filers, who claimed the deductions on Schedule 1-A, have seen an average tax cut of over $800, according to the Treasury. Tax cuts can trigger a higher refund or reduce taxes owed, depending on the filer’s situation.
Some filers who itemize tax breaks have also seen benefits from the bigger federal deduction limit for state and local taxes, known as SALT. Trump’s legislation raised that cap to $40,000, up from $10,000, for 2025.
The latest SALT deduction limit change is expected to primarily benefit higher earners, according to a May 2025 analysis of various proposals from the Tax Foundation.
The Treasury has not released data on how many filers have claimed the SALT deduction during the 2026 filing season.
Traders work at the New York Stock Exchange on April 16, 2026.
NYSE
U.S. stocks climbed to record highs on Thursday against a backdrop of war, an oil supply shock and economic forecasts warning of stunted growth amid a protracted conflict.
Many investors may be thinking: Why?
Largely, it’s because the stock market is a barometer of what investors think will happen in the future, rather than an assessment of the present day, according to economists and market analysts.
Investors are essentially shrugging off the Middle East conflict as a blip that will be resolved relatively quickly, they said.
“The stock market isn’t trying to price what’s happening today,” said Joe Seydl, a senior markets economist at J.P. Morgan Private Bank. “The stock market is always trying to price what the world is going to look like six to 12 months from now.”
Why stocks have been ‘resilient’
The S&P 500, a U.S. stock index, fell about 8% in the initial weeks of the Iran war, from the start of the conflict on Feb. 28 to a recent low on March 30.
But stocks have rebounded since then, erasing all losses since the beginning of the war. The S&P 500 closed at an all-time high on Thursday — about 11% higher than its nadir at the end of March. That followed a record close on Wednesday.
“The market has remained very resilient in the face of the war and has rallied strongly on the prospect that it will be resolved,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s.
A ship waits to pass through the Strait of Hormuz following the two-week temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran, which is conditional on the opening of the strait, in Oman on April 8, 2026.
Shady Alassar | Anadolu | Getty Images
And while investors cheered the possibility of a diplomatic off-ramp to the conflict, the temporary ceasefire has appeared tenuous, with the U.S. and Iran each accusing the other of breaking the agreement.
Nations haven’t been able to reach a peace deal ahead of the ceasefire’s end. Vice President JD Vance said U.S. officials left peace talks in Pakistan over the weekend after the Iranian delegation refused to agree to American demands not to develop a nuclear weapon.
The markets ‘have memory’
Ultimately, the stock market is signaling a collective belief that tensions will ratchet down, the war will end in the near term and oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz will normalize, economists said.
That’s largely because investors have been conditioned to believe that President Donald Trump will back off if the economic pain becomes too intense, economists said — the so-called “TACO” trade, shorthand for “Trump always chickens out.”
“Investors strongly believe — and have been conditioned to believe — he’s going to stand down, find a way to pivot, declare victory and move on,” Zandi said.
Trump has pushed back on the notion of backing down, framing his brinkmanship as a savvy negotiating tactic.
Economists pointed to a recent example of this dynamic: in April 2025 during so-called liberation day, when the Trump administration levied a host of tariffs on U.S. trading partners.
Within days — after the stock market had cratered more than 12% — Trump announced a 90-day pause on those tariffs. Stocks then saw one of their biggest daily rallies in history following Trump’s reversal.
Investors remember that Trump often de-escalates geopolitical shocks — which is why they’ve seized on positive headlines that hint at progress in peace talks, for example, Seydl said.
“The markets have memory,” Seydl said.
AI stocks and the ‘tech boom’
Traders celebrating at the New York Stock Exchange on April 15, 2026, as the S&P 500 closed above the 7,000 level for the first time.
NYSE
There are other factors underpinning market resilience during wartime, economists said.
One is the investors’ enthusiasm for artificial intelligence and technology stocks, which account for almost half of the S&P 500’s market capitalization, Zandi said.
“Those stocks run on their own dynamic independent of anything, including the war in Iran,” Zandi said. “I think we would have been down a lot more and it would have been harder for us to recover had it not been for the very, very optimistic perspectives on AI.”
We’re in the middle of a “tech boom” — and investors are likely to remain optimistic until they think the tech cycle has run its course, Seydl said.
More broadly, stock investors are essentially making a bet on the future earnings growth of a company — and the earnings backdrop has been “pretty solid,” Seydl said.
Consumer spending appears to be stable, for example, economists said. And companies are getting a boost to their after-tax earnings from the GOP’s so-called “big beautiful bill,” which, among other things, made it easier to write off investments upfront and therefore reduce their tax liability, Zandi said.
Going forward
Experts said there will be an economic hit from the Iran war, though.
“Despite the recent news of a temporary ceasefire, some damage is already done, and the downside risks remain elevated,” Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, director of research at the International Monetary Fund, wrote Tuesday.
A protracted conflict risks deep and global economic pain, he wrote.
Even if the conflict is short-lived — as the broad market expects — stocks are unlikely to march much higher until it’s clear the U.S. is on the other side of the war and its economic fallout, Zandi said.
If investors are incorrect, and President Trump doesn’t back down or quickly extricate the U.S. from the war, the stock market may see a “full-blown correction” or worse, Zandi said. A stock market correction is a decline of at least 10% from recent highs.
“Everyone thinks they know what the script is,” Zandi said. “Now they just need to follow the script. If they don’t, the market will have some real problems.”
The uncertainty provides yet another example of why the average investor with a long time horizon should stick to their investment plan and ignore the noise, experts said.
“Trying to time the market is very difficult if not impossible for the average investor,” Seydl said. “It’s better to take a long-term perspective and ride out bouts of volatility.”
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