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Building up middle class will be a goal. How she may do it

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Vice President and 2024 Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris speaks at a campaign event in Atlanta, Georgia, on July 30, 2024.

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“Building up the middle class will be a defining goal of my presidency,” Vice President Kamala Harris said at a political event in Atlanta on Tuesday evening.

“When our middle class is strong, American is strong,” the de facto Democratic presidential nominee said to the crowd of more than 10,000 supporters.

“And to keep our middle class strong, families need relief from the high cost of living so that they have a chance, not to just to get by, but to get ahead,” Harris added.

Here’s a look at how Harris may make that happen, based on the policies she advocated for during her first presidential bid in 2020 and as a senator.

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One of Harris’ signature proposals as senator — known as the LIFT the Middle Class Act, or Livable Incomes for Families Today — would have provided an annual tax credit of up to $3,000 per person (or $6,000 per couple) for lower- and middle-income workers, on top of the benefits they already receive.

The size of the credit would have amounted to “significant tax relief,” according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

The Harris campaign did not immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comment. 

How the LIFT Act could look today

Since the LIFT Act was first proposed in 2018, the cost of living has only skyrocketed, hitting working-class Americans especially hard.

For these households, “real incomes have declined or remained flat due to inflation,” Tomas Philipson, former chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, told CNBC. That makes many workers feel less confident about their financial standing — and less satisfied with President Joe Biden’s handling of the economy.

At the same time, the rise of artificial intelligence has stoked fears about long-term job security.

In that context, “there’s a good rationale” for refloating a tax credit for those making under a certain income threshold, according to Laura Veldkamp, a professor of finance and economics at Columbia University Business School.

“A lot of people are asking the question, ‘Will AI take my job?’ There are people whose hard-earned skills could be obsolete,” she said. “One way to deal with that is to have more social insurance.”

But a tax credit like LIFT would also be extremely costly, according to Tax Policy Center estimates from 2018 and 2019.

To help cover the tab for the additional financial support, Harris at the time proposed repealing provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act for taxpayers earning more than $100,000.

However, funding such a tax credit now could be tough amid growing concerns over the federal budget deficit. Harris will also need to address trillions of expiring tax cuts enacted by former President Donald Trump before 2025.

How the LIFT Act could support renters

A present-day version of the LIFT Act may benefit renters the most, as many are part of the income category the tax credit is targeting, according to Francesco D’Acunto, an associate professor of finance at Georgetown University.

D’Acunto and other experts suggest the LIFT Act might even be a better aid than the 5% rent cap proposal Biden unveiled on July 16. That proposal calls on Congress to cap rent increases from landlords with 50 existing units or more at 5% or risk losing federal tax breaks.

Harris also supported the idea of rent caps at the campaign rally in Atlanta: “We will take on corporate landlords and cap unfair rent increases.”

However economists have found that such policies inadvertently bring down the available supply of rental units. And rent-control policies could further affect an already, relatively short supply, according to a report by the Federal Reserve published in February.

Rental vacancy rates, or the percentage of all units available for rent, measure the tightness of rental markets; the higher the vacancy rate, the easier it is to find housing, per the Fed.

In 2021, the overall vacancy rate slid to 5.6%, the lowest level since 1984, the central bank found. Supply has since rebounded and plateaued at 6.6% in April, per Census data via the Fed.

While the rent cap may lead consumers to believe prices will not increase significantly, it could have negative side effects, such as landlords taking their properties off the rental market, said Karl Widerquist, an economist and professor of philosophy at Georgetown University.

Plus, landlords who lose those federal tax breaks will still be able to raise rents, said Jacob Channel, a senior economist at LendingTree.

The advantage of the LIFT tax credit, said D’Acunto, is that it doesn’t create the same market distortions the rent cap would ignite. “But instead now on the side of the renter, we are actually very directly helping them to defray the effects of rent inflation,” he said.

Adds Widerquist: “We very often give tax benefits to all homeowners in the name of making it more affordable for people to become homeowners, and we don’t give a similar tax break to people who are paying rent. Those are the people who are struggling to become owners.”

Child tax credit is a ‘huge priority’ for Democrats

LIFT was first proposed years before Congress temporarily expanded the child tax credit during the Covid-19 pandemic, which could now be a bigger priority, experts say.

The American Rescue Plan boosted the child tax credit to $3,000 from $2,000, with an extra $600 for children under age 6 for 2021, and families received up to half upfront via monthly payments. Harris described the child tax credit changes as one of the “most important” and “most impactful” parts of the legislation in a 2021 speech.

The child poverty rate plunged to a historic low of 5.2% in 2021, largely due to the expansion, a Columbia University analysis found. Then in 2022, the rate more than doubled to 12.4% after pandemic relief expired, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

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“Whereas the last administration gave tax cuts to billionaires, we gave tax cuts to families through the child tax credit, which cut child poverty in America by half,” Harris said at a political event in North Carolina in late July, before Biden left the race.

Biden’s fiscal year 2025 budget aimed to restore the 2021 child tax credit increase and House lawmakers in January passed a bipartisan tax package, which included a child tax credit expansion. The Senate has scheduled a procedural vote for the bill on Thursday, which will force lawmakers to take a stand on the issue ahead of November.

The enhanced tax break is “a huge priority for Democrats,” said Garrett Watson, senior policy analyst and modeling manager at the Tax Foundation. 

Still, it’s unclear whether Harris, now the clear front-runner for the nomination, will renew calls for LIFT or focus on the child tax credit, which has a different design but a similar goal, he said.

“It’s very hard to say whether they would revisit specific policy options from so long ago,” said Columbia Business School economics professor Brett House.

For now, “there are other cultural and political issues that are going to dominate.”

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Nearly 2 in 5 cardholders have maxed out a credit card or come close

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Between higher prices and high interest rates, some Americans have had a hard time keeping up.

As a result, many are using more of their available credit and now, nearly 2 in 5 credit cardholders — 37% — have maxed out or come close to maxing out a credit card since the Federal Reserve began raising rates in March 2022, according to a new report by Bankrate.

Most borrowers who are over extended blame rising prices and a higher cost of living, Bankrate found.

Other reasons cardholders blame for maxing out a credit card or coming close include a job or income loss, an emergency expense, medical costs and too much discretionary spending.

“With limited options to absorb those higher costs, many low-income Americans have had no choice but to take on debt to afford costlier essentials — at a time when credit card rates are near record highs,” Sarah Foster, an analyst at Bankrate, said in a statement.

As prices crept higher, so did credit card balances.

The average balance per consumer now stands at $6,329, up 4.8% year over year, according to the latest credit industry insights report from TransUnion.

At the same time, the average credit card charges more than 20% interest — near an all-time high — and half of cardholders carry debt from month to month, according to another report by Bankrate.  

Carrying a higher balance has a direct impact on your utilization rate, the ratio of debt to total credit, and is one of the factors that can influence your credit score. Higher credit score borrowers typically have both higher limits and lower utilization rates.

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Credit experts generally advise borrowers to keep revolving debt below 30% of their available credit to limit the effect that high balances can have.

As of August, the aggregate credit card utilization rate was more than 21%, according to Bankrate’s analysis of Equifax data.

Still, “if you have five credit cards [with utilization rates around] 20%, you have a lot of debt out there,” said Howard Dvorkin, a certified public accountant and the chairman of Debt.com. “People are living a life that they can’t afford right now, and they are putting the balance on credit cards.”

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Potential problems ahead

Cardholders who have maxed out or come close to maxing out their credit cards are also more likely to become delinquent.

Credit card delinquency rates are already higher across the board, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and TransUnion both reported.

“Consumers have been measured in taking on additional revolving debt despite the inflationary environment over the past few years, although there has been an uptick in delinquencies in recent months,” said Tom McGee, CEO of the International Council of Shopping Centers.

A debt is considered delinquent when a borrower misses a full billing cycle without making a payment, or what’s considered 30 days past due. That can damage your credit score and impact the interest rate you’ll pay for credit cards, car loans and mortgages — or whether you’ll get a loan at all.

Some of the best ways to improve your credit standing come down to paying your bills on time every month, and in full, if possible, Dvorkin said. “Understand that if you don’t, then whatever you buy, over time, will end up costing you double.”

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Why 401(k) plans are the ‘final frontier’ for exchange-traded funds

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While many investors have flocked to exchange-traded funds, they haven’t gained much ground with 401(k) plan participants.

Exchange-traded funds, or ETFs, debuted in the early 1990s and have since captured about $10 trillion.

Mutual funds hold about $20 trillion, but ETFs have chipped away at their dominance: ETFs hold a 32% market share versus mutual fund assets, up from 14% a decade ago, according to Morningstar Direct data.

“ETFs are becoming the novel structure to be used in wealth-management-type accounts,” said David Blanchett, head of retirement research at PGIM, Prudential’s investment management arm.

However, that same zeal hasn’t been true for investors in workplace retirement plans, a huge pot of largely untapped potential for the ETF industry.

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At the end of 2023, 401(k) plans held $7.4 trillion, according to the Investment Company Institute, or ICI, and had more than 70 million participants. Other 401(k)-type plans, such as those for workers in universities and local government, held an additional $3 trillion, ICI data shows.

But hardly any of those assets are in ETFs, experts said.

“There’s a lot of money [in workplace plans], and there’s going to be more,” said Philip Chao, a certified financial planner who consults with companies about their retirement plans.

“It’s the final frontier [for ETFs], in the sense of trying to capture the next big pool of money,” said Chao, the founder of Experiential Wealth, based in Cabin John, Maryland.

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About 65% of 401(k) assets were invested in mutual funds at the end of 2023, according to ICI data. The group doesn’t report a corresponding statistic for ETFs.

A separate report from the Plan Sponsor Council of America, a trade group representing employers, suggests ETFs hold just a tiny fraction of the remaining share of 401(k) assets.

The PSCA report examines the relative popularity of investment structures, such as mutual funds and ETFs, across about 20 types of investment classes, from stock funds to bond and real estate funds, in 2022. The report found that 401(k) plans used ETFs most readily for sector and commodity funds — but even then, they did so just 3% of the time.

Key benefits are ‘irrelevant’

Mutual funds, collective investment trust funds and separately managed accounts held the lion’s share of the 401(k) assets across all investment categories, PSCA data shows.

Such investment vehicles perform the same basic function: They’re legal structures that pool investor money together.

However, there are some differences.

For example, ETFs have certain perks for investors relative to mutual funds, such as tax benefits and the ability to do intraday trading, experts said.

However, those benefits are “irrelevant” in 401(k) plans, Blanchett said.

The tax code already gives 401(k) accounts a preferential tax treatment, making an ETF advantage relative to capital gains tax a moot point, he said.

Blanchett said 401(k) plans are also long-term accounts in which frequent trading is generally not encouraged. Just 11% of 401(k) investors made a trade or exchange in their account in 2023, according to Vanguard data.

Additionally, in workplace retirement plans, there’s a decision-making layer between funds and investors: the employer.

Company officials choose what investment funds to offer their 401(k) participants — meaning investors who want ETFs may not have them available.

There may also be technological roadblocks to change, experts said.

The traditional infrastructure that underpins workplace retirement plans wasn’t designed to handle intraday trading, meaning it wasn’t built for ETFs, Mariah Marquardt, capital markets strategy and operations manager at Betterment for Work, wrote in a 2023 analysis. Orders by investors for mutual funds are only priced once a day, when the market closes.

There are also entrenched payment and distribution arrangements in mutual funds that ETFs can’t accommodate, experts said.

Mutual funds have many different share classes. Depending on the class, the total mutual fund fee an investor pays may include charges for many different players in the 401(k) ecosystem: the investment manager, plan administrator, financial advisor and other third parties, for example.

That net mutual fund fee gets divvied up and distributed to those various parties, but investors largely don’t see those line items on their account statements, Chao said.

Conversely, ETFs have just one share class. They don’t have the ability the bundle together those distribution fees, meaning investors’ expenses appear as multiple line items, Chao said.

“A lot of people like to have just one item,” Chao said. “You feel like you’re not paying any more fees.”

“It’s almost like ignorance is bliss,” he said.

 

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There’s a key change coming to 401(k) catch-up contributions in 2025

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Many Americans face a retirement savings shortfall. However, setting aside more money could get easier for some older workers in 2025.

Enacted by Congress in 2022, the Secure Act 2.0 ushered in several retirement system improvements, including updates to 401(k) plans, required withdrawals, 529 college savings plans and more.

While some Secure 2.0 changes have already happened, another key change for “max savers,” will begin in 2025, according to Dave Stinnett, Vanguard’s head of strategic retirement consulting.

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Some 4 in 10 American workers are behind in retirement planning and savings, according to a CNBC survey, which polled roughly 6,700 adults in early August.

But changes to 401(k) catch-up contributions — a higher limit for workers age 50 and older — could soon help certain savers, experts say. Here’s what to know.

Higher 401(k) catch-up contributions

Employees can now defer up to $23,000 into 401(k) plans for 2024, with an extra $7,500 for workers age 50 and older.

But starting in 2025, workers aged 60 to 63 can boost annual 401(k) catch-up contributions to $10,000 — or 150% of the catch-up limit — whichever is greater. The IRS hasn’t yet unveiled the catch-up contribution limit for 2025.  

“This can be a great way for people to boost their retirement savings,” said certified financial planner Jamie Bosse, senior advisor at CGN Advisors in Manhattan, Kansas.

An estimated 15% of eligible workers made catch-up contributions in 2023, according to Vanguard’s 2024 How America Saves report.

Those making catch-up contributions tend to be higher earners, Vanguard’s Stinnett explained. But they could still have “real concerns about being able to retire comfortably.”

More than half of 401(k) participants with income above $150,000 and nearly 40% with an account balance of more than $250,000 made catch-up contributions in 2023, the Vanguard report found.

Roth catch-up contributions

Another Secure 2.0 change will remove the upfront tax break on catch-up contributions for higher earners by only allowing the deposits in after-tax Roth accounts.

The change applies to catch-up deposits to 401(k), 403(b) or 457(b) plans who earned more than $145,000 from a single company the prior year. The amount will adjust for inflation annually. 

However, IRS in August 2023 delayed the implementation of that rule to January 2026. That means workers can still make pretax 401(k) catch-up contributions through 2025, regardless of income.

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