Donald Trump pledged to eliminate taxes on Social Security payments for seniors, a move that would cut levies for some elderly Americans but further strain benefits for those who have yet to retire.

“Seniors should not pay taxes on Social Security and they won’t,” Trump said at a rally on Wednesday in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania.

Trump’s pledge to cut taxes for elderly Americans, a key voting bloc, comes as the Republican nominee tries to recalibrate his campaign to focus on Vice President Kamala Harris rather than President Joe Biden, who quit the race on July 21. Trump has struggled to find an effective messaging strategy against Harris, employing attacks with racist and sexist overtones and invoking antisemitic tropes.

Travis Dove/Bloomberg

Trump, who earlier Wednesday questioned Harris’ embrace of her black identity in a personal and vitriolic attack, pivoted to an economic pitch, saying she would “totally destroy our Social Security system.” He also panned her for being weak on immigration and supporting efforts to “defund the police.”

The former president has made tax cuts a central promise of his campaign, but has shared few details. He’s pledged to renew his 2017 cuts on individuals and small businesses, which are set to expire next year, as well as eliminate taxes on tipped income. That’s a plan that could appeal to younger voters who are more likely to work in hospitality jobs, but the idea has been widely panned by economists.

Eliminating taxes on retirement benefits is also likely to draw criticism. Wiping out those levies would increase the deficit by up to $1.8 trillion through 2035, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. The group also said it would speed up the rate at which the trust funds would face shortfalls and retirees would see their benefits cut. Federal projections show payments are on track to be reduced starting in 2035. 

About 40% of retirees owe taxes on their Social Security benefits, depending on their income level, marital status and other sources of earnings, according to the Social Security Administration. Taxing the retirement benefits dates back to a 1983 law, signed by then President Ronald Reagan, intended to keep the popular program financially viable.

Trump’s idea to cut taxes on benefit payments would complicate conversations in Washington about large-scale plans to find new ways to fund Social Security, which have become more pressing with projections showing the program is becoming increasingly unsustainable. But changes to Social Security are politically risky because older Americans, who are directly benefiting from the payments, are an important source of votes for both parties.

Pennsylvania polls

The contest in Pennsylvania, perhaps the most important swing state that will decide the election, has tightened after Harris replaced Biden atop the Democratic ticket, according to recent polling, showing increased enthusiasm among young, Black and Hispanic voters for the vice president.

The Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll conducted after Biden withdrew showed that Trump had a four-point lead over Harris in Pennsylvania, down from the seven-point advantage the former president had in the survey early this month when Biden was still running.

Biden had clearly lost ground in the state since carrying it in 2020, said Berwood Yost, director of the Franklin & Marshall College Poll. Harris has energized voters who were a key part of Biden’s coalition but had soured on him because of his age or the economy, he said.

“We’ll see how long that continues, but Pennsylvania is back in play,” Yost said.

Harris is also seriously considering Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro to be her running mate, which would give her campaign in the state a boost. Shapiro is the most popular politician in the commonwealth and can appeal to rural and swing voters, Yost said.