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Teens enter the labor force as employers dish out higher wages, perks

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A lifeguard works at the beach at Coney Island on June 15, 2023 in the Brooklyn borough of New York City.

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

Dailey Jogan was pleased to learn she would get $15 an hour and a handful of perks as the head swim coach for a metro Detroit team. Her older brother’s reaction looked more like surprise.

At 18 years old, Jogan has spent the summer organizing meets as staff leader of the 250-person team. She also gets some freebies for facilities housed within the park where they practice, like access to the gym and a few comped tickets to the movie theater.

That $15 per hour wage is about 25%, or $3 per hour, more than her older brother earned in the same role five years ago. And if he wanted to use the workout equipment or catch a film, he had to dig into his wallet to pay like everyone else.

“I was very pleasantly surprised,” Dailey Jogan said. “I feel very valued.”

That change in pay and benefits underscores the changing job outlook for the millions of American teen workers following the pandemic-induced labor crunch. While other Covid-related shocks to the economy have dissipated in recent years, young employees fetching higher wages and additional incentives appears to be a new normal.

Data from Gusto, a payroll platform serving more than 300,000 businesses across the country, shows just how much ground teens have gained. The typical wage for a newly hired worker ages 15 through 19 came in at $15.68 per hour in June, up more than 36% from the start of 2019.

That outpaces the rate of growth for all workers regardless of age on private payrolls, which has climbed just under 27% over the same time period, according to federal data. What’s more, Gusto stats show teens have been uniquely insulated from shifts in broader economic conditions that have at times led to lower pay for some adults.

“I could probably overstate the benefit to teens in this labor market, but, I mean, I would have to go pretty far to do it,” said Liz Wilke, Gusto’s principal economist. “It’s a much better time to be a teen entering the labor force today than it was five or 10 years ago.”

Employers woo workers

Beyond pay, businesses courting teens have added additional benefits — like Jogan’s gym and theater access — to sweeten the offer.

At fast-casual chain Chipotle Mexican Grill, workers have been eligible for a tuition reimbursement program since before the pandemic. Earlier this year, the California-based company added a well-being offering, which includes six free sessions with a licensed counselor or mental health coach. Chipotle also launched a match program, where eligible employees who make payments on student loans will get up to 4% of pay from the company in their retirement account.

Additions to Chipotle’s benefits package in recent years have come after surveying its U.S. restaurant workers — more than one-third of whom are teens. While these offerings can push up operating costs, head of global benefits Daniel Banks said they are worthwhile to get enough new hires and open more stores. It can also boost worker retention, in turn keeping existing locations operating smoothly.

Workers fill food orders at a Chipotle restaurant on April 01, 2024 in San Rafael, California.

Justin Sullivan | Getty Images

In fact, Chipotle found employees in its education-assistance program were two times more likely to stay and more than six times as likely to move into management roles. Banks also said Chipotle’s turnover rates are near record lows.

“Our culture and brand is so important to us. We really try to focus on internal promotions and internal hires,” he said. “Being able to provide those individuals with the right skills and tools to become an effective leader just helps the bottom line across the board.”

Elsewhere, small businesses are trying to keep up.

Nearly half of Erin Powell’s staffers at The Sugar Shack, a small business in Minnesota, are teens, taking on roles like making coffee or baking pizzas. Powell accommodates vacation schedules, gives free menu items during shifts and offers frequent raises. She also hosts holiday parties and tries to foster a familial workplace atmosphere.

Despite those efforts, she’s at times seen teen employees leave for higher pay at chain rivals like Starbucks. Powell feels caught between a rock and a hard place: She’s trying to do right by her young workers, while also acknowledging the financial realities of what can be provided without scale.

“Everybody’s competing for workers still,” Powell said. But, she tries to show employees that “sometimes big isn’t always better.”

To keep increasing labor costs manageable, she takes on the responsibilities of what others would hire a manager for. Powell has also tried to curtail waste within the business to cut out unnecessary expenses.

‘The summer job is back’

Whether it’s a raise or financial support for education, these boons appear to be luring teens to the workforce. It marks a turn for a group that saw big declines on this front in recent decades.

At its peak this year, government data shows close to 40% of members of this age group are employed. That’s the largest share since 2009, but is still well off highs recorded in the late 1970s.

“The summer job is back,” said Alicia Sasser Modestino, an associate professor of economics who studies youth development at Northeastern University. “I remember being completely dead wrong in summer of 2021 when I said, ‘Teenagers: just run out, grab these jobs, because this is not going to last.'”

For reference, the federal government found more than 5 million teens were in the workforce last year. Gusto expects sports and recreation; education; and food and beverage to be popular summer job sectors for this age bracket.

Teens have also begun appearing with higher frequency in less stereotypical sectors, like construction and nonprofit work, as the labor force remains tight, according to Gusto’s Wilke. Looking ahead, she said teens should be able to keep finding these perks and opportunities as long as the job market is relatively hot.

A shrinking share of teen workers is making minimum wage, which was once considered common. Just about 3% of 16- to 19-year-old hourly workers earned equal to, or less than, the federal minimum wage last year, according to government data. That’s down from close to 20% in 2013. (The federal per-hour pay floor has sat at $7.25 since 2009, though several states have their own minimums that are higher than that.)

Because teens typically start at the lowest end of a company’s pay scale, Wilke said it can be easier to institute pay bumps that equate to large percentage changes than for higher-earning, older colleagues. And businesses may be more likely to give outsized wage gains to younger workers, she said, because they often don’t require other parts of a compensation package like insurance.

Recognizing ‘a balance’

While today’s employed teens are theoretically flush with spending money, there’s an elephant in the room: the rising cost of higher education. Olivia Locarno said she’s stashed money from jobs at Chick-fil-A and Starbucks in a savings account for books and dorm room essentials.

The 18-year-old New Jersey resident still treats herself to meals out with friends and new clothes every once in a while. But she said she has tried to resist discretionary spending because of the expenses from starting classes at Marist College in the fall.

“It’s hard to just go on Amazon and not spend money on things,” she said. 

YinYang | E+ | Getty Images

Jogan, too, is saving up her paychecks from coaching for expenses while at Aquinas College in Michigan, where she’ll be a member of the swim team. She’s also starting to think about big-ticket purchases down the road like a car.

For Jogan, leading the so-called Mutants team has taught her soft skills like communication and problem solving. That’s similar to what her older brother, Thomas, said he learned from the gig and uses today in his supply chain management job.

Thomas said he would’ve liked to have been paid at the rate his sister enjoyed when he was her age. But he added that Dailey does need to stretch the extra dollars she is making to account for inflation. Thomas said there’s no sibling jealousy — he’s just happy to see her carrying on a family legacy in a meaningful job.

“She should be in a good spot,” said Thomas, 24. “Obviously, things are more expensive now and so forth, so there’s a balance.”

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Economics

UK inflation, November 2024

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The columns of Royal Exchange are dressed for Christmas, at Bank in the City of London, the capital’s financial district, on 20th November 2024, in London, England.

Richard Baker | In Pictures | Getty Images

LONDON — U.K. inflation rose to 2.6% in November, the Office for National Statistics said Wednesday, marking the second straight monthly increase in the headline figure.

The reading was in line with the forecast of economists polled by Reuters, and climbed from 2.3% in October.

Core inflation, excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, came in at 3.5%, just under a Reuters forecast of 3.6%.

Headline price rises hit a three-and-a-half year low of 1.7% in September, but was expected to tick higher in the following months, partly due to an increase in the regulator-set energy price cap this winter.

“This upwards trajectory looks set to continue over the next few months,” Joe Nellis, economic adviser at accountancy MHA, said in emailed comments on Wednesday, citing the energy market and “the long-term pressure of a tight domestic labor market.”

Persistent inflation in the services sector, the dominant part of the U.K. economy, has led money markets to price in almost no chance of an interest rate cut during the Bank of England’s final meeting of the year on Thursday. Those bets were solidified earlier this week when the ONS reported that regular wage growth strengthened to 5.2% over the August-October period, up from 4.9% over July-September.

The November data showed services inflation was unchanged at 5%.

If the BOE leaves monetary policy unchanged in December, it will finish out the year with just two cuts of its key rate, bringing it from 5.25% to 4.75%. The European Central Bank has meanwhile enacted four quarter-percentage-point cuts and this month signaled a firm intention to move lower next year.

The U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to trim rates by a quarter point at its own meeting on Wednesday, taking total cuts of the year to a full percentage point. Some skepticism lingers over whether it should take this step, given inflationary pressures.

This is a breaking news story and will be updated shortly.

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The Fed has a big interest rate decision coming Wednesday. Here’s what to expect

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Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference following the November 6-7, 2024, Federal Open Market Committee meeting at William McChesney Martin Jr. Federal Reserve Board Building, in Washington, DC, November 7, 2024. 

Andrew Caballero-Reynolds | AFP | Getty Images

Inflation is stubbornly above target, the economy is growing at about a 3% pace and the labor market is holding strong. Put it all together and it sounds like a perfect recipe for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates or at least to stay put.

That’s not what is likely to happen, however, when the Federal Open Market Committee, the central bank’s rate-setting entity, announces its policy decision Wednesday.

Instead, futures market traders are pricing in a near-certainty that the FOMC actually will lower its benchmark overnight borrowing rate by a quarter percentage point, or 25 basis points. That would take it down to a target range of 4.25%-4.5%.

Even with the high level of market anticipation, it could be a decision that comes under an unusual level of scrutiny. A CNBC survey found that while 93% of respondents said they expect a cut, only 63% said it is the right thing to do.

“I’d be inclined to say ‘no cut,'” former Kansas City Fed President Esther George said Tuesday during a CNBC “Squawk Box” interview. “Let’s wait and see how the data comes in. Twenty-five basis points usually doesn’t make or break where we are, but I do think it is a time to signal to markets and to the public that they have not taken their eye off the ball of inflation.”

Former Kansas City Fed Pres. Esther George: I would not cut rates this week

Inflation indeed remains a nettlesome problem for policymakers.

While the annual rate has come down substantially from its 40-year peak in mid-2022, it has been mired around the 2.5%-3% range for much of 2024. The Fed targets inflation at 2%.

The Commerce Department is expected to report Friday that the personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, ticked higher in November to 2.5%, or 2.9% on the core reading that excludes food and energy.

Justifying a rate cut in that environment will require some deft communication from Chair Jerome Powell and the committee. Former Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren also recently told CNBC that he would not cut at this meeting.

“They’re very clear about what their target is, and as we’re watching inflation data come in, we’re seeing that it’s not continuing to decelerate in the same manner that it had earlier,” George said. “So that, I think, is a reason to be cautious and to really think about how much of this easing of policy is required to keep the economy on track.”

Fed officials who have spoken in favor of cutting say that policy doesn’t need to be as restrictive in the current environment and they don’t want to risk damaging the labor market.

Chance of a ‘hawkish cut’

If the Fed follows through on the cut, it will mark a full percentage point lopped off the federal funds rate since September.

While that’s a considerable amount of easing in a short period of time, Fed officials have tools at their disposal to let the markets know that future cuts won’t come so easily.

One of those tools is the dot-plot matrix of individual members’ expectations for rates over the next few years. That will be updated Wednesday along with the rest of the Summary of Economic Projections that will include informal outlooks for inflation, unemployment and gross domestic product.

Another is the use of guidance in the post-meeting statement to indicate where the committee sees policy headed. Finally, Powell can use his news conference to provide further clues.

It’s the Powell parley with the media that markets will be watching most closely, followed by the dot plot. Powell recently said the Fed “can afford to be a little more cautious” about how quickly it eases amid what he characterized as a “strong” economy.

“We’ll see them leaning into the direction of travel, to begin the process of moving up their inflation forecast,” said Vincent Reinhardt, BNY Mellon chief economist and former director of the Division of Monetary Affairs at the Fed, where he served 24 years. “The dots [will] drift up a little bit, and [there will be] a big preoccupation at the press conference with the idea of skipping meetings. So it’ll turn out to be a hawkish cut in that regard.”

What about Trump?

Powell is almost certain to be asked about how policy might position in regard to fiscal policy under President-elect Donald Trump.

Thus far, the chair and his colleagues have brushed aside questions about the impact Trump’s initiatives could have on monetary policy, citing uncertainty over what is just talk now and what will become reality later. Some economists think the incoming president’s plans for aggressive tariffs, tax cuts and mass deportations could aggravate inflation even more.

“Obviously the Fed’s in a bind,” Reinhart said. “We used to call it the trapeze artist problem. If you’re a trapeze artist, you don’t leave your platform to swing out until you’re sure your partner is swung out. For the central bank, they can’t really change their forecast in response to what they believe will happen in the political economy until they’re pretty sure there’ll be those changes in the political economy.”

“A big preoccupation at the press conference is going to the idea of skipping meetings,” he added. “So it’ll turn out to be, I think, a hawkish easing in that regard. As [Trump’s] policies are actually put in place, then they may move the forecast by more.”

Other actions on tap

Most Wall Street forecasters see Fed officials raising their expectations for inflation and reducing the expectations for rate cuts in 2025.

When the dot plot was last updated in September, officials indicated the equivalent of four quarter-point cuts next year. Markets already have lowered their own expectations for easing, with an expected path of two cuts in 2025 following the move this week, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch measure.

The outlook also is for the Fed to skip the January meeting. Wall Street is expecting little to no change in the post-meeting statement.

Officials also are likely to raise their estimate for the “neutral” rate of interest that neither boosts nor restricts growth. That level had been around 2.5% for years — a 2% inflation rate plus 0.5% at the “natural” level of interest — but has crept up in recent months and could cross 3% at this week’s update.

Finally, the committee may adjust the interest it pays on its overnight repo operations by 0.05 percentage point in response to the fed funds rate drifting to near the bottom of its target range. The “ON RPP” rate acts as a floor for the funds rate and is currently at 4.55% while the effective funds rate is 4.58%. Minutes from the November FOMC meeting indicated officials were considering a “technical adjustment” to the rate.

Expect a 'hawkish cut' from the Fed this week, says BofA's Mark Cabana

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Iran faces dual crisis amid currency drop and loss of major regional ally

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A briefcase filled with Iranian rial banknotes sits on display at a currency exchange market on Ferdowsi street in Tehran, Iran, on Saturday, Jan. 6, 2018.

Ali Mohammadi | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Iran is confronting its worst set of crises in years, facing a spiraling economy along with a series of unprecedented geopolitical and military blows to its power in the Middle East.

Over the weekend, Iran’s currency, the rial, hit a record low of 756,000 to the dollar, according to Reuters. Since September, the embattled currency has suffered the ripple effects of devastating hits to Iran’s proxies, including Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Palestinian militant group Hamas, as well as the November election of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency.

With the fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad amid a shock offensive by rebel groups, Tehran lost its most important ally in the Middle East. Assad, who is accused of war crimes against his own people, fled to Russia and left a highly fractured country behind him.

“The fall of Assad has existential implications for the Islamic Republic,” Behnam ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington, told CNBC. “Lest we forget, the regime ahs spent well over a decade in treasure, blood, and reputation to save a regime which ultimately folded in less than two weeks.”

The currency’s fall exposes the extent of the hardship faced by ordinary Iranians, who struggle to afford everyday goods and suffer high inflation and unemployment after years of heavy Western sanctions compounded by domestic corruption and economic mismanagement.

Trump has pledged to take a hard line on Iran and will be re-entering the White House roughly six years after unilaterally pulling the U.S. out of the Iranian nuclear deal and re-imposing sweeping sanctions on the country.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has expressed his government’s willingness to negotiate and revive the deal, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which lifted some sanctions on Iran in exchange for curbs to its nuclear program. But the attempted outreach comes at a time when the International Atomic Energy Agency says Tehran is enriching uranium at record levels, reaching 60% purity — a short technical step from the weapons-grade purity level of 90%.

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