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Fed Chair Powell says holding rates high for too long could jeopardize economic growth

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Jerome Powell, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, during a Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee hearing in Washington, DC, US, on Tuesday, July 9, 2024.

Tierney L. Cross | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday expressed concern that holding interest rates too high for too long could jeopardize economic growth.

Setting the stage for a two-day appearance on Capitol Hill this week, the central bank leader said the economy remains strong as does the labor market, despite some recent cooling. Powell cited some easing in inflation, which he said policymakers stay resolute in bringing down to their 2% goal.

“At the same time, in light of the progress made both in lowering inflation and in cooling the labor market over the past two years, elevated inflation is not the only risk we face,” he said in prepared remarks. “Reducing policy restraint too late or too little could unduly weaken economic activity and employment.”

The commentary coincides with the approaching one-year anniversary of the last time the Federal Open Market Committee raised benchmark interest rates.

The Fed’s overnight borrowing rate currently sits in a rage of 5.25%-5.50%, the highest level in some 23 years and the product of 11 consecutive hikes after inflation hit its highest level since the early 1980s.

Markets expect the Fed to begin cutting rates in September and likely following up with another quarter percentage point reduction by the end of the year. FOMC members at their June meeting, however, indicated just one cut.

‘Strengthen our confidence’

In recent days, Powell and his colleagues have indicated that inflation data has been somewhat encouraging after a surprise jump to start the year. Inflation as judged by the Fed’s preferred personal consumption expenditures price index was at 2.6% in May after peaking above 7% in June 2022.

“After a lack of progress toward our 2 percent inflation objective in the early part of this year, the most recent monthly readings have shown modest further progress,” Powell said. “More good data would strengthen our confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent.”

The statement is part of congressionally mandated semiannual updates on monetary policy. After delivering the remarks, Powell will face questioning from Senate Banking Committee members on Tuesday, then the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday.

In past appearances, Powell has veered away from making dramatic policy announcements while having to dodge politically loaded questions from committee members. The questioning could get contentious this year as Washington is on edge amid a volatile presidential campaign.

Several Democratic committee members urged Powell to lower rates soon.

“I’m concerned that if the Fed waits too long to lower rates, the Fed could undo the undo the progress we’ve made on creating good paying jobs,” Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, the committee chair, told Powell. “If unemployment trends upward, you must act immediately to protect Americans jobs. Workers have too much to lose if the Fed overshoots [its] inflation target and causes a completely unnecessary recession.”

However, Powell has stressed that the Fed is not political and does not get involved in taking policy sides outside of its own roles. In his prepared remarks, he emphasized the importance of “the operational independence that is needed” for the Fed to do its job.

His other remarks focused squarely on the stance of policy in relation to the broader economy. Recent data has shown the unemployment rate creeping higher and broad growth as measured by gross domestic product receding. Both the manufacturing and services sectors reported being in contraction during June.

But Powell said the data is showing that “the U.S. economy continues to expand at a solid pace” despite the deceleration in GDP.

“Private domestic demand remains robust, however, with slower but still-solid increases in consumer spending,” he said.

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Economics

Donald Trump has many ways to hurt Elon Musk

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THERE WAS a time, not long ago, when an important skill for journalists was translating the code in which powerful people spoke about each other. Carefully prepared speeches and other public remarks would be dissected for hints about the arguments happening in private. Among Donald Trump’s many achievements is upending this system. In his administration people seem to say exactly what they think at any given moment. Wild threats are made—to end habeas corpus; to take Greenland by force—without any follow-through. Journalists must now try to guess what is real and what is for show.

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Economics

Donald Trump has many ways to hurt Elon Musk

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THERE WAS a time, not long ago, when an important skill for journalists was translating the code in which powerful people spoke about each other. Carefully prepared speeches and other public remarks would be dissected for hints about the arguments happening in private. Among Donald Trump’s many achievements is upending this system. In his administration people seem to say exactly what they think at any given moment. Wild threats are made—to end habeas corpus; to take Greenland by force—without any follow-through. Journalists must now try to guess what is real and what is for show.

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Economics

Jobs report May 2025:

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U.S. payrolls increased 139,000 in May, more than expected; unemployment at 4.2%

Hiring decreased just slightly in May even as consumers and companies braced against tariffs and a potentially slowing economy, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday.

Nonfarm payrolls rose 139,000 for the month, above the muted Dow Jones estimate for 125,000 and a bit below the downwardly revised 147,000 that the U.S. economy added in April.

The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%. A more encompassing measure that includes discouraged workers and the underemployed also was unchanged, holding at 7.8%.

Worker pay grew more than expected, with average hourly earnings up 0.4% during the month and 3.9% from a year ago, compared with respective forecasts for 0.3% and 3.7%.

“Stronger than expected jobs growth and stable unemployment underlines the resilience of the US labor market in the face of recent shocks,” said Lindsay Rosner, head of multi-sector fixed income investing at Goldman Sachs Asset Management.

Nearly half the job growth came from health care, which added 62,000, even higher than its average gain of 44,000 over the past year. Leisure and hospitality contributed 48,000 while social assistance added 16,000.

On the downside, government lost 22,000 jobs as efforts to cull the federal workforce by President Donald Trump and the Elon Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency began to show an impact.

Stock market futures jumped higher after the release as did Treasury yields.

Though the May numbers were better than expected, there were some underlying trouble spots.

The April count was revised lower by 30,000, while March’s total came down by 65,000 to 120,000.

There also were disparities between the establishment survey, which is used to generate the headline payrolls gain, and the household survey, which is used for the unemployment rate. The latter count, generally more volatile than the establishment survey, showed a decrease of 696,000 workers. Full-time workers declined by 623,000, while part-timers rose by 33,000.

“The May jobs report still has everyone waiting for the other shoe to drop,” said Daniel Zhao, lead economist at job rating site Glassdoor. “This report shows the job market standing tall, but as economic headwinds stack up cumulatively, it’s only a matter of time before the job market starts straining against those headwinds.”

The report comes against a teetering economic background, complicated by Trump’s tariffs and an ever-changing variable of how far he will go to try to level the global playing field for American goods.

Most indicators show that the economy is still a good distance from recession. But sentiment surveys indicate high degrees of anxiety from both consumers and business leaders as they brace for the ultimate impact of how much tariffs will slow business activity and increase inflation.

For their part, Federal Reserve officials are viewing the current landscape with caution.

The central bank holds its next policy meeting in less than two weeks, with markets largely expecting the Fed to stay on hold regarding interest rates. In recent speeches, policymakers have indicated greater concern with the potential for tariff-induced inflation.

“With the Fed laser-focused on managing the risks to the inflation side of its mandate, today’s stronger than expected jobs report will do little to alter its patient approach,” said Rosner, the Goldman Sachs strategist.

Friday also marks the final day before Fed officials head into their quiet period before the meeting, when they do not issue policy remarks.

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