Connect with us

Finance

Sahm rule creator doesn’t think that the Fed needs an emergency rate cut

Published

on

The U.S. economy is not in a recession, economist says

The U.S. Federal Reserve does not need to make an emergency rate cut, despite recent weaker-than-expected economic data, according to Claudia Sahm, chief economist at New Century Advisors.

Speaking to CNBC “Street Signs Asia,” Sahm said “we don’t need an emergency cut, from what we know right now, I don’t think that there’s everything that will make that necessary.”

She said, however, there is a good case for a 50-basis-point cut, adding that the Fed needs to “back off” its restrictive monetary policy.

While the Fed is intentionally putting downward pressure on the U.S. economy using interest rates, Sahm warned the central bank needs to be watchful and not wait too long before cutting rates, as interest rate changes take a long time to work through the economy.

“The best case is they start easing gradually, ahead of time. So what I talk about is the risk [of a recession], and I still feel very strongly that this risk is there,” she said.

Sahm was the economist who introduced the so-called Sahm rule, which states that the initial phase of a recession has started when the three-month moving average of the U.S. unemployment rate is at least half a percentage point higher than the 12-month low.

Lower-than-expected manufacturing numbers, as well as higher-than-forecast unemployment fueled recession fears and sparked a rout in global markets early this week.

The U.S. employment rate stood at 4.3% in July, which crosses the 0.5-percentage-point threshold. The indicator is widely recognized for its simplicity and ability to quickly reflect the onset of a recession, and has never failed to indicate a recession in cases stretching back to 1953.

When asked if the U.S. economy is in a recession, Sahm said no, although she added that there is “no guarantee” of where the economy will go next. Should further weakening occur, then it could be pushed into a recession.

“We need to see the labor market stabilize. We need to see growth level out. The weakening is a real problem, particularly if what July showed us holds up, that that pace worsens.”

Continue Reading

Finance

Walmart taps own fintech firm for credit cards after Capital One exit

Published

on

A Capital One Walmart credit card sign is seen at a store in Mountain View, California, United States on Tuesday, November 19, 2019.

Yichuan Cao | Nurphoto | Getty Images

Walmart‘s majority-owned fintech startup OnePay said Monday it was launching a pair of new credit cards for customers of the world’s biggest retailer.

OnePay is partnering with Synchrony, a major behind-the-scenes player in retail cards, which will issue the cards and handle underwriting decisions starting in the fall, the companies said.

OnePay, which was created by Walmart in 2021 with venture firm Ribbit Capital, will handle the customer experience for the card program through its mobile app.

Walmart had leaned on Capital One as the exclusive provider of its credit cards since 2018, but sued the bank in 2023 so that it could exit the relationship years ahead of schedule. At the time, Capital One accused Walmart of seeking to end its partnership so that it could move transactions to OnePay.

The Walmart card program had 10 million customers and roughly $8.5 billion in loans outstanding last year, when the partnership with Capital One ended, according to Fitch Ratings.

For Walmart and its fintech firm, the arrangement shows that, in seeking to quickly scale up in financial services, OnePay is opting to partner with established players rather than going it alone.

In March, OnePay announced that it was tapping Swedish fintech firm Klarna to handle buy now, pay later loans at the retailer, even after testing its own installment loan program.

One-stop shop

In its quest to become a one-stop shop for Americans underserved by traditional banks, OnePay has methodically built out its offerings, which now include debit cards, high-yield savings accounts and a digital wallet with peer-to-peer payments.

OnePay is rolling out two options: a general-purpose credit card that can be used anywhere Mastercard is accepted and a store card that will only allow Walmart purchases.

Customers whose credit profiles don’t allow them to qualify for the general-purpose card will be offered the store card, according to a person with knowledge of the program.

OnePay didn’t yet disclose the rewards expected with the cards, though the general-purpose card is expected to provide a stronger value, said this person, who declined to be identified speaking ahead of the product’s release. The Synchrony partnership was reported earlier by Bloomberg.

“Our goal with this credit card program is to deliver an experience for consumers that’s transparent, rewarding, and easy to use,” OnePay CEO Omer Ismail said in the Monday release.

“We’re excited to be partnering with Synchrony to launch a program at Walmart that checks each of those boxes and will help serve millions of people,” Ismail said.

Read more: Klarna, nearing IPO, plucks lucrative Walmart fintech partnership from rival Affirm

Continue Reading

Finance

Warner Bros. Discovery, Tesla, Robinhood, IonQ and more

Published

on

Continue Reading

Finance

Robinhood shares drop after the online brokerage fails to get the nod to join the S&P 500

Published

on

People wait in line for T-shirts at a pop-up kiosk for the online brokerage Robinhood along Wall Street after the company went public with an initial public offering earlier in the day on July 29, 2021 in New York City.

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

Robinhood shares sold off on Monday as the online brokerage was snubbed in the latest quarterly rebalance of the S&P 500 Index after months of speculation that it could earn a coveted spot in the benchmark.

Shares of Robinhood dropped nearly 5% in premarket trading. The stock has rallied 3.3% Friday to bring last week’s gain to over 13% before the S&P Dow Jones Indices said after the bell that the S&P 500 would remain unchanged.

Just last week, Bank of America called Robinhood a top candidate to join the S&P 500 during the big reshuffling in June. The S&P 500 rebalance, which typically comes on the third Friday of the last month in a quarter, is usually an impactful event as it can spark billions of dollars of trading and spur passive funds to snap up its shares. Companies being added to the index can generally expect funds like that to buy huge amounts of their shares in the coming weeks.

Crypto exchange Coinbase was the latest beneficiary of such an inclusion. The stock skyrocketed 24% in the next trading session following the announcement last month.

Still, Robinhood has had a major comeback this year so far with shares doubling in price. The online brokerage’s shares hit a fresh record high last week amid a rebound in both stocks and crypto. The company had fallen out of favor after the GameStop trading mania of 2021 fizzled and the collapse of FTX triggered a sell-off in digital assets.

Continue Reading

Trending