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This overlooked risk can ‘make or break’ your portfolio, advisor says

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How sequence risk hurts your portfolio

Investors can typically start withdrawing funds from retirement accounts without penalty at age 59½.

But there’s a big risk for younger retirees or near-retirees who experience stock market downturns just before or as they start tapping accounts.

Withdrawing from your portfolio when the stock market drops could mean selling more assets for the same amount of cash. As a result, you’re left with fewer investments to capture future growth when the market rebounds.

It’s the biggest issue for younger retirees with decades of living expenses to cover from their nest egg, experts say.

Here are some ways to mitigate your sequence of returns risk, according to financial advisors.

Diversify your portfolio

As retirement approaches, it’s important to adjust portfolio allocations from heavy concentrations in higher-risk assets to less volatile investments like bonds, experts say. The right mix may depend on several factors, including your risk tolerance, goals and life expectancy.

“Diversification among several different asset classes can help make volatility less pronounced,” Lyon said.

Diversification among several different asset classes can help make volatility less pronounced.

Collin Lyon

Wealth strategy advisor at Anderson Financial Strategies

Build a ‘war chest’ to fund living expenses

You can avoid selling assets in a down market by keeping a six-month emergency fund and a “war chest” to cover living expenses, according to CFP Jonathan Bednar II, a wealth advisor at Paradigm Wealth Partners in Knoxville, Tennessee. 

For Bednar’s clients, the war chest includes five years of expenses in fixed-income assets — typically in a bond or certificate of deposit ladder — so retirees can “weather any market volatility,” when the sequence risk is highest, he said.

Opt for a flexible withdrawal rate

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Why your paycheck is slightly bigger

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Why your take-home pay could be higher

If you’re starting 2025 with similar wages to 2024, your take-home pay — or compensation after taxes and benefit deductions — could be a little higher, depending on your withholdings, according to Long.

“When all the tax brackets go up, but your salary stays the same, relatively, that puts you on a lower rung of the ladder,” he said.

The federal income tax brackets show how much you owe on each part of your “taxable income,” which you calculate by subtracting the greater of the standard or itemized deductions from your adjusted gross income.

“Even if you make a little more than last year, you could actually pay less in tax in 2025 compared to 2024,” because the standard deduction also increased, Long said. 

For 2025, the standard deduction increases to $30,000 for married couples filing jointly, up from $29,200 in 2024. The tax break is also larger for single filers, who can claim $15,000 in 2025, a bump from $14,600.  

‘It ends up nearly balancing out’

Tax Tip: 401(K) limits for 2025

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Student loan payments could lead to a tax break

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There’s one upside to your student loan payments: They might reduce your 2024 tax bill.

The student loan interest deduction allows qualifying borrowers to deduct up to $2,500 a year in interest paid on eligible private or federal education debt. Before the Covid pandemic, nearly 13 million taxpayers took advantage of the deduction, according to higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz.

Most borrowers couldn’t claim the deduction on federal student loans during the pandemic-era pause on student loan bills, which spanned from March 2020 to October 2023. With interest rates on those debts temporarily set to zero, there was no interest accruing for borrowers to claim.

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But interest on federal student loans began accruing again in September of 2023, and the first post-pause payments were due in October of that year.

By now, borrowers could again have interest to claim for the full tax year’s worth of payments, experts said.

“All borrowers should explore whether they qualify for the deduction as it can reduce their tax liability,” said Betsy Mayotte, president of The Institute of Student Loan Advisors, a nonprofit that helps borrowers navigate the repayment of their debt.

Student loan interest deduction worth up to $550

The student loan interest deduction is “above the line,” meaning you don’t need to itemize your taxes to claim it.

Your lender or student loan servicer reports your interest payments for the tax year to the IRS on a tax form called a 1098-E, and should provide you with a copy, too.

If you don’t receive the form, you should be able to get it from your servicer.

Depending on your tax bracket and how much interest you paid, the student loan interest deduction could be worth up to $550 a year, Kantrowitz said.

There are income limits, however. For 2024, the deduction starts to phase out for individuals with a modified adjusted gross income of $80,000, and those with a MAGI of $95,000 or more are not eligible at all. For married couples filing jointly, the phaseout begins at $165,000, and those with a MAGI of $195,000 or more are ineligible.

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Op-ed: Here’s why estate planning is a gift for your family

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Estate planning isn’t about focusing on your demise, one advisor says; it’s about taking control and making decisions that ensure your loved ones are cared for.

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