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China’s central bank says local government debt risks are declining

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Pan Gongsheng, governor of the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), during the Lujiazui Forum in Shanghai, China, on Wednesday, June 19, 2024. 

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

BEIJING — China’s financial risks have dropped, including from local government debt, People’s Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng said in state media interviews published late Thursday.

Pan also said the central bank will work with the Ministry of Finance to enable China to reach its full-year growth targets. He said that monetary policy would remain supportive.

Beijing has increasingly prioritized addressing risks from high debt levels in the real estate sector, which is closely linked to local government finances. International institutions have long called on China to reduce its ballooning debt levels.

“China’s overall financial system is sound. The overall risk level has significantly declined,” Pan said in an interview released by state broadcaster CCTV. That’s according to a CNBC translation of the transcript.

He noted that “the number and debt levels of local government financing platforms are declining,” and that the cost of their debt burden has “dropped significantly.”

Beijing should focus on domestic market to support the economy as geopolitical risks set to remain

Local government financing vehicles emerged in China in the last two decades to enable local authorities, who couldn’t easily borrow directly, to fund infrastructure and other projects. LGFVs primarily obtained financing from shadow banking.

The lack of regulatory oversight often meant indiscriminate funding of infrastructure projects with limited financial return. That raised the debt burden on LGFVs, for which the local governments are responsible.

Coordinated efforts in the last year by local governments, financial institutions and investors have “alleviated the most pressing repayment needs of the weakest LGFVs and boosted market sentiment,” S&P Global Ratings analysts said in a July 25 report, one year since Beijing made a concerted effort to reduce LGFV risk.

However, the report said LGFV debt “remains a big problem.” The analysis found that more than 1 trillion yuan ($140 billion) of LGFV bonds are due to mature over the next couple of quarters, while such debt growth remains in the high single digits.

Exacerbating debt challenges is China’s slowing growth. The economy grew by 5% in the first half of the year, raising concerns among analysts that the country would not be able to reach its target of around 5% growth for the full year without additional stimulus.

The International Monetary Fund on Aug. 2 said in its regular review of China’s financial situation that macroeconomic policy should support domestic demand to mitigate debt risks.

“Small and medium-sized commercial and rural banks are the weak link in the large banking system,” the IMF report said, noting China has nearly 4,000 such banks that account for 25% of total banking system assets.

Addressing real estate

The number of high-risk small and medium-sized banks has dropped to half of what it was at their peak, Pan said via state media on Thursday, without sharing specific figures.

In real estate, he pointed out the mortgage down payment ratio has reached a record low of 15% in China, and that interest rates are also low. Pan noted central authorities are helping local governments with financing so they can acquire property and turn them into affordable housing or rental units.

Property and related sectors once accounted for at least one-fourth of China’s economy. But in recent years Beijing has sought to shift the country away from relying on real estate for growth, toward advanced tech and manufacturing.

Pan’s public comments come after a week of heightened volatility in the government bond market.

Earlier on Thursday, the PBOC made the rare decision to delay a rollover of its medium-term lending facility in favor of a 577.7 billion yuan capital injection via another tool called the 7-day reverse repurchase agreement. Pan highlighted that 7-day tool in June when discussing PBOC efforts to revamp its monetary policy structure.

The PBOC is scheduled Tuesday morning to release its monthly loan prime rate, another benchmark rate. The central bank cut the 1-year and 5-year loan prime rates by 10 basis points each in July, after keeping the 1-year unchanged for 10 straight months, and the 5-year unchanged for four months.

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Buffett denies social media rumors after Trump shares wild claim that investor backs president crashing market

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Berkshire Hathaway responds to 'false reports' on social media

Warren Buffett went on the record Friday to deny social media posts after President Donald Trump shared on Truth Social a fan video that claimed the president is tanking the stock market on purpose with the endorsement of the legendary investor.

Trump on Friday shared an outlandish social media video that defends his recent policy decisions by arguing he is deliberately taking down the market as a strategic play to force lower interest and mortgage rates.

“Trump is crashing the stock market by 20% this month, but he’s doing it on purpose,” alleged the video, which Trump posted on his Truth Social account.

The video’s narrator then falsely states, “And this is why Warren Buffett just said, ‘Trump is making the best economic moves he’s seen in over 50 years.'”

The president shared a link to an X post from the account @AmericaPapaBear, a self-described “Trumper to the end.” The X post itself appears to be a repost of a weeks-old TikTok video from user @wnnsa11. The video has been shared more than 2,000 times on Truth Social and nearly 10,000 times on X.

Buffett, 94, didn’t single out any specific posts, but his conglomerate Berkshire Hathaway outright rejected all comments claimed to be made by him.

“There are reports currently circulating on social media (including Twitter, Facebook and Tik Tok) regarding comments allegedly made by Warren E. Buffett. All such reports are false,” the company said in a statement Friday.

CNBC’s Becky Quick spoke to Buffett Friday about this statement and he said he wanted to knock down misinformation in an age where false rumors can be blasted around instantaneously. Buffett told Quick that he won’t make any commentary related to the markets, the economy or tariffs between now and Berkshire’s annual meeting on May 3.

‘A tax on goods’

While Buffett hasn’t spoken about this week’s imposition of sweeping tariffs from the Trump administration, his view on such things has pretty much always been negative. Just in March, the Berkshire CEO and chairman called tariffs “an act of war, to some degree.”

“Over time, they are a tax on goods. I mean, the tooth fairy doesn’t pay ’em!” Buffett said in the news interview with a laugh. “And then what? You always have to ask that question in economics. You always say, ‘And then what?'”

During Trump’s first term, Buffett opined at length in 2018 and 2019 about the trade conflicts that erupted, warning that the Republican’s aggressive moves could cause negative consequences globally.

“If we actually have a trade war, it will be bad for the whole world … everything intersects in the world,” Buffett said in a CNBC interview in 2019. “A world that adjusts to something very close to free trade … more people will live better than in a world with significant tariffs and shifting tariffs over time.”

Buffett has been in a defensive mode over the past year as he rapidly dumped stocks and raised a record amount of cash exceeding $300 billion. His conglomerate has a big U.S. focus and has large businesses in insurance, railroads, manufacturing, energy and retail.

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Stocks making the biggest moves midday: PLTR, CAT, AAPL JPM

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Powell sees tariffs raising inflation and says Fed will wait before further rate moves

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US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell holds a press conference after the Monetary Policy Committee meeting, at the Federal Reserve in Washington, DC on March 19, 2025. 

Roberto Schmidt | Afp | Getty Images

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Friday that he expects President Donald Trump’s tariffs to raise inflation and lower growth, and indicated that the central bank won’t move on interest rates until it gets a clearer picture on the ultimate impacts.

In a speech delivered before business journalists in Arlington, Va., Powell said the Fed faces a “highly uncertain outlook” because of the new reciprocal levies the president announced Wednesday.

Though he said the economy currently looks strong, he stressed the threat that tariffs pose and indicated that the Fed will be focused on keeping inflation in check.

“Our obligation is to keep longer-term inflation expectations well anchored and to make certain that a one-time increase in the price level does not become an ongoing inflation problem,” Powell said in prepared remarks. “We are well positioned to wait for greater clarity before considering any adjustments to our policy stance. It is too soon to say what will be the appropriate path for monetary policy.”

The remarks came shortly after Trump called on Powell to “stop playing politics” and cut interest rates because inflation is down.

There’s been a torrent of selling on Wall Street following the Trump announcement of 10% across-the-board tariffs, along with a menu of reciprocal charges that are much higher for many key trading partners.

Powell noted that the announced tariffs were “significantly larger than expected.”

“The same is likely to be true of the economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower growth,” he said. “The size and duration of these effects remain uncertain.”

Focused on inflation

While Powell was circumspect about how the Fed will react to the changes, markets are pricing in an aggressive set of interest rate cuts starting in June, with a rising likelihood that the central bank will slice at least a full percentage point off its key borrowing rate by the end of the year, according to CME Group data.

However, the Fed is charged with keeping inflation anchored with full employment.

Powell stressed that meeting the inflation side of its mandate will require keeping inflation expectations in check, something that might not be easy to do with Trump lobbing tariffs at U.S. trading partners, some of whom already have announced retaliatory measures.

A greater focus on inflation also would be likely to deter the Fed from easing policy until it assesses what longer-term impact tariffs will have on prices. Typically, policymakers view tariffs as just a temporary rise in prices and not a fundamental inflation driver, but the broad nature of Trump’s move could change that perspective.

“While tariffs are highly likely to generate at least a temporary rise in inflation, it is also possible that the effects could be more persistent,” Powell said. “Avoiding that outcome would depend on keeping longer-term inflation expectations well anchored, on the size of the effects, and on how long it takes for them to pass through fully to prices.”

Core inflation ran at a 2.8% annual rate in February, part of a general moderating pattern that is nonetheless still well above the Fed’s 2% target.

In spite of the elevated anxiety over tariffs, Powell said the economy for now “is still in a good place,” with a solid labor market. However, he mentioned recent consumer surveys showing rising concerns about inflation and dimming expectations for future growth, pointing out that longer-term inflation expectations are still in line with the Fed’s objectives.

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