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Harris economic proposals envision tax cuts, subsidies

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Kamala Harris campaigning in Maryland in August 2024
Kamala Harris during an event in Maryland on Aug. 15, 2024.

Aaron Schwartz/Photographer: Aaron Schwartz/Blo

Vice president Kamala Harris will propose sweeping new federal subsidies for parents, homebuyers, and Americans with low-incomes alongside new programs to curb increases in rent and grocery prices as she seeks to convince voters that she would act swiftly to address one of their top concerns — rising consumer costs.

The Democratic nominee, who will unveil the plan Friday afternoon in North Carolina as part of her three-month sprint to Election Day, plans to target some of the core expenses of daily life — the costs of food, housing and prescription drugs — while overhauling the federal tax code.

Harris’ plan would expand the Child Tax Credit to $3,600 from $2,000 per dependent, with a super-sized $6,000 credit for newborns. Harris also proposes expanding the Earned Income Tax Credit for low-wage workers who don’t have children, and increasing subsidies for those who purchase insurance on federal health exchanges.

The vice president also envisions new price controls on groceries, and expanding limits on out-of-pocket prescription drug prices to all Americans. Tens of billions of federal dollars would be spent to improve the supply of federal housing, while Harris is pledging to implement new rules to prevent corporate and landlord price gouging. 

The effort comes as the Democratic presidential nominee rapidly tries to define herself for the American public, with less than three months until the November election. Her message is an acknowledgment that many Americans are unhappy with the economic status quo, and a marked shift from President Joe Biden’s rigorous defense of their administration’s economic record, which contributed to Democratic leaders’ concerns that voters saw him as out of touch.

Economists are divided on the practicality and efficacy of some of Harris’ proposals — and particularly price cap efforts.

The World Bank in 2022 described temporary price controls as “the second best option,” given they can be inefficient and costly, though the bank acknowledges they have a role in keeping inflation expectations in check — provided they are designed well. Her $25,000 proposal to assist first-time home owners secure mortgages threatens to further push up housing prices.

Other elements of Harris’ proposals would carry a substantial price tag. 

The expanded Child Tax Credit alone would likely cost hundreds of billions or trillions of dollars over the next decade, though it could garner bipartisan support: Trump’s running mate, Senator JD Vance, also proposed increasing the credit to $5,000 per child. The politically popular tax break is set to decrease in value at the end of 2025, meaning that whoever wins the White House will face pressure to revive it.

Still, advisers believe that concentrating on pocketbook issues offers a favorable frame to voters who still rank the economy among their biggest concerns. It’s also an opportunity for Harris to highlight the years she spent as California attorney general advocating for consumers in price-fixing cases.

And even as economists point to supply-chain disruptions and the federal government’s pandemic-era stimulus spending as major factors in price increases, Democrats argue that inflation, which peaked at a 40-year high of 9.1% in mid-2022, has been driven by corporate profit-padding. Many Americans agree, Harris’ advisers have found in polling and focus groups.

Trump, looking to counter expected attention regarding the proposals, held a press conference Thursday at his New Jersey golf club where he labeled the Harris plan as “communist” and warned efforts to control grocery prices would lead to “food shortages, rationing, hunger, dramatically more inflation.”

Light on specifics

While Harris will offer some policy details in her speech, slated for Friday afternoon in Raleigh, she’s not expected to weigh down the address with too many specifics. Instead, allies say, it’s more important politically to deliver a message showing that she understands voters’ economic struggles and will fight to alleviate them.

“We’re more interested in the storytelling than the precise policy,” said Adam Green, co-founder of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, which has worked closely with the Harris campaign on economic messaging, drawing on weekly polling conducted with Data for Progress. Harris is right to start with grocery prices, he said, because they are “the number-one pain point in peoples’ lives by far.”

Harris heads into Friday’s speech with a narrow polling advantage on the economy, a rare position for a Democratic presidential candidate. 

Forty-two percent of registered voters surveyed for a Financial Times-University of Michigan Ross School of Business poll released Sunday said they trust her to handle the economy, while 41% said former President Donald Trump would do a better job. Biden trailed Trump by six points when the survey was last conducted, in July. 

Economic wariness

Recent U.S. economic data has generally been strong. Stocks climbed Thursday after reports showed that retail spending and the labor market continue to be healthy. Underlying U.S. inflation eased on an annual basis in July for the fourth consecutive month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday, keeping the Federal Reserve on track to cut interest rates in September. 

Still, there have been a few signs of concern that have analysts raising the odds of a recession. The unemployment rate rose in July to 4.3%, the highest level in three years.

Despite the generally positive economic news, voters have a bleak outlook. In the Financial Times-University of Michigan poll, 73% of those surveyed described American economic conditions as negative. 

While Harris is promising to fight drugmakers from the Oval Office, she can also point to what the Biden administration has already done to cut costs. For the first time since he dropped out of the presidential race, Biden joined Harris for a public appearance on Thursday to roll out the lower prices secured from pharmaceutical companies for participants in Medicare Part D.

Harris says she would push the government to negotiate additional savings faster, and cap the monthly cost of insulin at $35 for all Americans.

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CFO roles will expand and create more value in 2025

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2025 is shaping up to be a year of rapid change for CFOs across their accounting and finance departments. Continuing talent challenges, increasingly dangerous cyber threats, renewed focus on ROI and the rise of AI will all influence — and permanently change — the way CFOs work and how they drive value for their organizations. 

IBM’s 2024 CFO Survey found that the top 9% of CFOs in terms of performance were significantly more engaged than the average in activities including cybersecurity, brand reputation, enterprise strategy and execution, technology and talent. Because of the connection between performance and wider involvement, the biggest trend we expect to affect CFOs in 2025 is the need to consider and contribute to activities across the organization. 

In some cases, this engagement may look like a convergence or overlap between the roles of CFO and COO. CFOs who haven’t already forged working partnerships across their companies may want to start by making closer connections to the CIO or CTO for the biggest early wins. For example, 65% of CFOs who participated in the CFO survey said, “Their organization is under pressure to accelerate ROI across their technology portfolio,” but just a third said finance and technology strategize together early in the IT planning process. 

The CFO embraces data-driven storytelling

To help different departments improve their ROI, CFOs increasingly need storytelling skills to craft narratives based on financial data. This is important for conveying to other decision makers how they can create value in a way that resonates with their department’s goals and the company’s goals. If leaders in other areas of the business can understand the how and the why behind the CFO’s budget and purchasing input, they’re more likely to factor that input into their decisions and strategies. 

AI continues to reshape accounting and finance functions

In 2024, only 34% of finance departments had implemented standard AI use cases, and just 11% were using generative AI. Those numbers will almost certainly grow in 2025, as more organizations implement use cases like automating accounts payable, accounts receivable, and monthly closing tasks, so that people can shift their time to value-added work. 

More organizations may also adopt AI-powered forecasting and budgeting, so these become real-time processes rather than static activities that only get updated once a year. Challenges for finance and accounting leaders who want to leverage AI include standardizing data for AI models and monitoring the AI model’s output for accuracy. 

Talent shortages will require new strategies

A dwindling pipeline of accounting graduates and employees’ increasing desire for better work-life balance will force CFOs and accounting managers to find new ways to get the work done. Without the option to simply hire more full-time employees or to expect people to work 80-hour weeks, automating basic tasks with AI may allow organizations to get the same amount of work done with fewer employees. The use of outsourced talent will also continue to grow in 2025, as smaller companies seek people to handle their workloads and larger companies use outsourcing strategically.

Even the CFO role can be outsourced. The use of fractional CFOs — contract CFO talent that works part-time for multiple clients — can help companies maintain stability while they search for a permanent CFO or cover for a CFO who’s on leave. Smaller companies and early-stage startups that don’t need a full-time CFO can benefit from working with a fractional CFO to set strategy and focus on value creation. This kind of temporary leadership role has grown by 57% since 2020 and is likely to keep growing as more companies discover the benefits of accessing CFO expertise without a full-time commitment. 

Cybersecurity becomes a CFO concern

CFO collaboration with security will be increasingly important in 2025 because of the rise in AI-enabled security threats. These include cyberattacks on organizations’ networks to steal data or disrupt operations, email attacks designed to steal funds or employee network credentials, and brand impersonation attacks on customers that can inflict heavy damage on brand reputation and trust. 

The potential for financial losses to theft, reputational damage, compliance penalties and post-attack recovery gives CFOs an urgent need to collaborate with IT leaders on their organizations’ security efforts. For example, the average cost of a data breach in 2024 was $4.88 million, the highest figure yet. But only a third of midmarket organizations put the CFO in charge of cybersecurity budgets in early 2024. As attacks get more expensive, look for more companies to loop in the CFO on cybersecurity investment decisions or change how CFOs staff and utilize different team members.

These skills will matter more in 2025

People in accounting and finance will need some new skills to make the most of the technology, security and strategy trends we expect to see in 2025. One area where almost everyone needs to upskill is data literacy, to support AI initiatives. Employees don’t need to become data scientists in addition to accountants or finance leaders, but everyone in the organization needs to understand how to look at data, spot anomalies and analyze them.

Soft skills will matter even more. Effective collaboration, storytelling and relationship building skills can help everyone, especially CFOs who may be called on to work with a growing number of other leaders and groups within their business. 

Strengthening data literacy and interpersonal skills are ways to build another critical skill for 2025, which is staying adaptable to change. Flexibility is a requirement in today’s accounting and finance landscape, which is changing faster than ever, as these trends indicate. CFOs and accounting professionals who can keep up will be in the best position to create value for their organizations in 2025.

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Taxpayer Advocate spotlights IRS delays in ERC claims and ID theft assistance, but sees improvements in IRS

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National Taxpayer Advocate Erin Collins released her annual report to Congress Wednesday, highlighting improvements in taxpayer service by the Internal Revenue Service, but pointed to persistent delays in processing Employee Retention Credit claims and helping victims of identity theft.

“For the first time since I became the National Taxpayer Advocate in 2020, I can begin this report with good news: The taxpayer experience has noticeably improved,” Collins wrote. “In 2024, taxpayers and practitioners experienced better service, generally received timely refunds, and faced shorter wait times to reach customer service representatives…. After receiving multiyear funding, the IRS has [also] made major strides toward improving its taxpayer services and information technology (IT) systems.”

However, the IRS faces a budget cut of over $20 billion after Congress passed a continuing resolution to avoid a government shutdown last month repeating language from an earlier continuing resolution that cut the IRS’s budget by a similar amount in 2023. The incoming Trump administration and Republicans in Congress have also been pushing for budget cuts. Trump has named former Rep. Billy Long, R-Missouri, as the next IRS commissioner, even though the current IRS commissioner, Danny Werfel, is supposed to serve until November 2027. Long has advocated for businesses promoting the Employee Retention Credit, but the IRS has slowed down the processing of ERC claims amid rampant instance of fraud. 

In her report, Collins criticized the long wait times for legitimate claims. She noted that as of Oct. 26, 2024, the IRS faced a backlog of about 1.2 million ERC claims, with many claims pending for over a year. While the IRS has valid concerns about paying ineligible claims, the slow processing time is harming many eligible businesses that are relying on these funds to pay expenses, Collins noted. Other concerns include lack of transparency for businesses trying to track the status of their claims; confusing disallowance letters that have omitted critical information; the use of audit-like procedures for disallowed claims without standard taxpayer audit protections; and significant delays for businesses whose refund checks were stolen and have waited months or longer to receive replacement checks. After the National Taxpayer Advocate’s report went to press, Werfel announced in mid-December he expects that approximately 500,000 additional claims will be processed in 2025, but the details and timing of the refunds are still to be determined, Collins noted.

Identity theft victim assistance

The report also pointed to continuing delays in resolving identity theft cases. For cases closed by the IRS’s Identity Theft Victim Assistance unit in fiscal year 2024, the average time it took the IRS to resolve ID cases and issue refunds to the affected victims was nearly two years. The delays affected nearly half a million taxpayers and were even worse than the delays seen in FY 2023, when cases took almost 19 months to resolve. Collins called the delays “unconscionable” and recommended the IRS prioritize identity theft case resolution by keeping all IDTVA employees focused on these cases instead of reassigning them to other tasks during the filing season. She urged the IRS to reduce case resolution times to 90 days or less.

Taxpayer service and tech upgrades

Collins stressed the need for adequate funding to support critical taxpayer services and technology upgrades. She noted that the bulk of the nearly $80 billion in multiyear IRS funding provided by the Inflation Reduction Act was allocated for tax law enforcement and has been controversial. She also notes, however, that there has been bipartisan support for the smaller amounts allocated for taxpayer services and IT modernization. Stressing the importance of taxpayer services funding, she urged Congress, if it cuts IRA enforcement funding, not to make commensurate cuts to taxpayer services and IT. Congress should not, Collins urged, “inadvertently throw out the baby with the bathwater.”

The report pointed to a number of examples of improvements the IRS has made using its multiyear funding. Taxpayer services funding has enabled the IRS to hire more customer service representatives, allowing the agency to answer nearly 9 million more telephone calls than two years earlier and to cut in half the average time needed to process individual taxpayer correspondence from about seven months to about three and a half months. The IRS has also expanded in-person help at its Taxpayer Assistance Centers, adding evening and weekend service in many locations to accommodate taxpayers who are unable to visit during normal business hours.

Business Systems Modernization funding has enabled taxpayers to resolve issues without the involvement of an IRS employee. With these improvements, taxpayers can now get more information and transact more business with the IRS through their online accounts, use voicebots and chatbots to get answers to many of their questions, submit correspondence to the IRS electronically and communicate with the IRS through secure messaging in pending cases. The IRS now allows taxpayers to submit 30 of the most common taxpayer forms from mobile devices, helping the estimated 15% of Americans who rely solely on their smartphones for internet access.

Tax return processing delays

The report noted that continuing delays in IRS return processing are frustrating taxpayers and causing tax refund delays. The IRS receives more than 10 million paper-filed Forms 1040 each year and over 75 million paper-filed returns and forms. Until recently, IRS employees had to manually transcribe the data from those returns into IRS systems. While the IRS has made progress on automating return processing by scanning more than half of paper-filed returns and forms, it still has a long way to go to digitize all paper. E-filed returns are sometimes rejected, and nearly 18 million (about 12%) of e-filed Forms 1040 were rejected in the past year. The IRS generally rejects returns flagged by its fraud detection filters, but most rejected returns are valid, requiring taxpayers to jump through additional hoops to resubmit their returns electronically or submit their returns on paper. The report discusses the strain this puts on taxpayers, especially low-income taxpayers who are eligible for refundable Earned Income Tax Credit benefits. The Taxpayer Advocate Service recommends the IRS continue its efforts to automate tax processing including digitizing nearly all paper-filed returns by the 2026 filing season and enabling electronic processing of amended tax returns.

While taxpayer service has improved across the IRS’s three main channels — telephone, in-person and online — the report found significant service gaps remain. The IRS achieved an 88% “Level of Service” on its Accounts Management lines during the filing season, but this measure excludes calls directed to telephone lines that fall outside the “Accounts Management” umbrella (30% of all calls in FY 2024), calls where a taxpayer hangs up before being placed in a calling queue, and calls made outside the filing season. Overall, the level of service for all toll-free lines in FY 2024 was just 56%, with only 31% of callers reaching an assistor. Of the 6.2 million calls the IRS received from taxpayers whose returns had been stopped by the IRS’s identify theft filters and who were calling to authenticate their identities, the IRS answered only about 20%. This has left millions of taxpayers without the support they need. TAS recommends the IRS adopt more accurate service metrics and prioritize answering non-Accounts Management telephone lines that serve largely vulnerable taxpayer populations. Among these are the Installment Agreement/Balance Due, Taxpayer Protection Program, and Automated Collection System telephone lines.

Werfel response

IRS Commissioner Danny Werfel responded to the report. “The National Taxpayer Advocate’s report recognizes that the IRS has made historic progress over the last two years improving phone, online and in-person services by reducing wait times on toll-free lines, providing enhanced technology and adding new digital tools,” Werfel said in a statement. “These improvements reflect what a well-funded IRS can do to help taxpayers and tax professionals on many issues, including delivering tax refunds quickly to more than 100 million taxpayers.  It’s important to continue that momentum because we recognize the agency’s work isn’t done – not by a longshot. It’s vital that the IRS continue this progress to better serve taxpayers and the nation. The IRS has already made improvements in many of the areas outlined by the Taxpayer Advocate and will continue to do so in 2025. But as the Taxpayer Advocate noted, having sufficient resources is critical to the IRS since so many of our efforts require improving digital options and capabilities while having enough staff to process tax returns, manage correspondence and answer phone calls year-round.”

Employee recruitment challenges

The report pointed to continuing challenges in employee recruitment, hiring, training and retention at the IRS. It noted the IRS faces ongoing difficulties in hiring, training and maintaining employees. Job postings aren’t consistently targeted to reach the desired candidates. The IRS often takes several months to hire new employees, leading some candidates to accept other offers. New hires require a great deal of training before they can become productive employees, and experienced employees often need to be reassigned to train them. A Congressional Budget Office study published in 2024 found that federal employees with professional degrees earn almost 29% less than their non-federal counterparts, making it harder for the IRS to compete in the tight job market. The report recommended the IRS explore alternative recruitment platforms, review pay disparities and implement strategies to improve employee retention.

Minimum competency for preparers

The report also recommended Congress authorize the IRS to establish minimum competency standards for federal tax return preparers and revoke the identification numbers of sanctioned preparers. It noted the IRS receives over 160 million individual income tax returns each year, and most are prepared by paid tax return preparers. While some tax return preparers must meet licensing requirements (such as CPAs, attorneys and Enrolled Agents), most tax return preparers are not credentialed. Numerous studies have found that non-credentialed preparers prepare inaccurate returns disproportionately, causing some taxpayers to overpay their taxes and other taxpayers to underpay their taxes, which subjects them to penalties and interest charges. Non-credentialed preparers also drive much of the high improper payments rate attributable to wrongful EITC claims, the report noted. In FY 2023, 33.5% of EITC payments, amounting to $21.9 billion, were estimated to be improper, and among tax returns claiming the EITC prepared by paid tax return preparers, 96% of the total dollar amount of EITC audit adjustments was attributable to returns prepared by non-credentialed preparers.

The report noted that federal and state laws generally require lawyers, doctors, securities dealers, financial planners, actuaries, appraisers, contractors, motor vehicle operators, and barbers and beauticians to obtain licenses or certifications and, in most cases, to pass competency tests. The Obama, first Trump and Biden administrations have each recommended that Congress authorize the Treasury Department to establish minimum competency standards for federal tax return preparers. To protect taxpayers and the public, TAS likewise recommends Congress provide this authorization as well as authorization for the Treasury Department to revoke the Preparer Tax Identification Numbers of preparers who have been sanctioned for improper conduct.

The report called for expanding the U.S. Tax Court’s jurisdiction to hear refund cases. Under current law, taxpayers seeking to challenge an IRS tax-due adjustment can file a petition in the U.S. Tax Court, while taxpayers who have paid their tax and are seeking a refund must file suit in a U.S. district court or the U.S. Court of Federal Claims. Litigating a case in a U.S. district court or the Court of Federal Claims is generally more challenging, as the filing fees are relatively high, rules of civil procedure are complex, the judges generally do not have tax expertise and proceeding without a lawyer is difficult. By contrast, taxpayers litigating their cases in the Tax Court face a low $60 filing fee, may follow less formal procedural rules, are generally assured their positions will be fairly considered because of the tax expertise of the Tax Court’s judges, even if they do not present their arguments effectively, and can more easily represent themselves. For these reasons, the requirement that refund claims be litigated in a U.S. district court or the Court of Federal Claims effectively deprives many taxpayers of the right to judicial review of an IRS refund disallowance. In FY 2024, about 97% of all tax-related litigation was adjudicated in the Tax Court. TAS recommended Congress expand the jurisdiction of the Tax Court to give taxpayers the option to litigate all tax disputes, including refund claims, in that forum.

Other recommendations in the report included enabling the Low Income Taxpayer Clinic program to assist more taxpayers in controversies with the IRS. The LITC program assists low-income taxpayers and taxpayers who speak English as a second language. When the LITC program was established as part of the IRS Restructuring and Reform Act of 1998, the law limited annual grants to no more than $100,000 per clinic. The law also imposed a 100% “match” requirement, so a clinic cannot receive more in grant funds than it raises from other sources. The nature and scope of the LITC Program have evolved considerably since 1998, and those requirements are preventing the program from expanding assistance to a larger universe of eligible taxpayers. TAS recommended Congress remove the per-clinic cap and allow the IRS to reduce the match requirement to 25%, where doing so would expand coverage to additional taxpayers.

The report also recommended requiring the IRS to timely process claims for refund or credit. It noted millions of taxpayers file refund claims with the IRS each year. Under current law, there is no requirement that the IRS pay or deny them. It may simply ignore them. The taxpayers’ remedy is to file suit in a U.S. district court or the U.S. Court of Federal Claims. For many taxpayers, that is not a realistic or affordable option. The report says the absence of a processing requirement is a “poster child” for non-responsive government. While the IRS generally does process refund claims, the claims can and sometimes do spend months and even years in administrative limbo within the IRS. The report recommended Congress require the IRS to act on claims for credit or refund within one year and impose certain consequences on the IRS for failing to do so.

The report also recommended allowing the limitation on theft loss deductions in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act to expire so scam victims aren’t taxed on the amounts stolen from them. Many financial scams involve the theft of retirement assets, the report noted. In a typical scam, a con artist may pose as a law enforcement officer, convince a victim that her retirement savings are at risk and persuade the victim to transfer her retirement savings to an account that the scammer controls. Then, the scammer absconds with the funds. Under the tax code, the victim’s withdrawal of funds from a retirement account is treated as a distribution subject to income tax and, if the victim is under age 59½, to a 10% additional tax as well. Thus, the victim may not only lose her life savings but also owe significant tax on the stolen funds. Prior to 2018, scam victims generally could claim a theft loss deduction to offset the stolen amounts included in gross income, but the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act eliminated the deduction. TAS recommends Congress allow this TCJA limitation to expire so the theft deduction is again available in these circumstances. Congress is currently planning to take up the expiring provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act this year.

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Private sector added 122K jobs in December amid signs of hiring slowdown

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Annual pay grew 4.6% year over year as private sector employers added 122,000 jobs in December, payroll giant ADP reported Wednesday.

That represents a hiring slowdown from earlier in the fourth quarter after over 180,000 jobs were added in October, and a revised total of 152,000 in November, according to ADP chief economist Nela Richardson, speaking during a conference call with reporters. 

The ADP National Employment Report found that service-providing businesses added the bulk of those jobs, 112,000. However, the professional and business services sector, which includes accounting and tax preparation, lost 5,000 jobs last month. The financial activities sector, which includes banking, added 12,000 jobs. Goods-producing businesses added 10,000 jobs, mainly in the construction sector, offset by losses in manufacturing, natural resources and mining.

Small businesses with between one and 19 employees lost 1,00 jobs, while those with between 20 and 49 employees added 6,000 jobs. Midsized businesses with between 50 and 249 employees lost 2,000 jobs, while those with between 250 and 499 employees added 11,000 jobs. Large establishments with 500 employees or more added 97,000 jobs.

Year-over-year pay growth for those who stayed in their jobs slowed to 4.6%, the slowest pace of gains since July 2021. In professional and business services, the rate was 4.5%. Pay growth for workers who changed jobs was 7.1%, a slight decline from November.

Richardson pointed to a recent pickup in job openings, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey.

“The labor market is still looking to attract workers,” she said. “Layoffs are still very, very low, and so what we’re seeing again is that balance.”

Workers are largely staying with their jobs, although a separate survey from ADP also found that worker sentiment is declining. ADP produces an Employee Motivation and Commitment Index that polls 2,500 workers each month. “What we’ve seen in this sample of workers is that people’s feelings about their jobs have started to decline,” said Richardson. “Worker sentiment about their jobs peaked in June, and it has been falling steadily every single month, including December. That signals that workers may be staying put, but they’re less happy about it than they were in June.”

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