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Here’s how the election could affect your taxes

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Vice President Kamala Harris, left, and former President Donald Trump

Reuters

As former U.S. president Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris unveil their economic agendas, both presidential candidates have called for tax changes that could affect millions of Americans.

Taxes will be a key issue for the next president. Without action from Congress, trillions in tax breaks enacted by Trump via the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, or TCJA, will expire after 2025. More than 60% of taxpayers could see higher taxes in 2026 without extensions, according to the Tax Foundation.

Expiring provisions include lower federal income tax brackets, a higher standard deduction, a bigger child tax credit and more generous estate and gift tax exemptions, among others.

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However, “there’s a gulf between the political rhetoric around the 2017 tax law and the policy reality that both parties are going to face next year,” said Andrew Lautz, associate director for the Bipartisan Policy Center’s economic policy program.

While Democrats have criticized elements of the TCJA, both parties will likely agree to extend trillions in tax cuts, he said. But negotiations could be challenging amid concerns about the federal budget deficit

Extending TCJA provisions and subsidized premiums for marketplace health insurance could increase federal deficits by nearly $5 trillion over 10 years, according to the Bipartisan Policy Center.

Here’s a breakdown of where each candidate stands on tax policy.

Plans to extend Trump’s tax cuts

Trump aims to preserve the individual and business tax cuts enacted via TCJA, the campaign said in a press release on Monday.

He addressed his tax agenda briefly during an event in York, Pennsylvania on Monday, which countered the Democratic National Convention. During that speech, he promised “big tax cuts for families and small businesses.”

Harris hasn’t directly addressed TCJA extensions during her 2024 campaign. But President Joe Biden‘s top economic advisor Lael Brainard in May voiced support for partial extensions.

“Achieving a fairer tax system also means we can’t extend expiring Trump tax cuts for those with incomes above $400,000,” she said.

The Trump and Harris campaigns did not respond to CNBC’s request for comment.

Proposed tax increases

Both candidates have vowed to address the budget deficit and have proposed measures to raise revenue. But tax law changes must be approved by Congress, which could be challenging, depending on future House and Senate control.

The Harris campaign on Monday said she would push to increase the corporate tax rate to 28%, up from the 21% permanently enacted via the TCJA. The plan could reduce the deficit by $1 trillion over a decade, according to estimates from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

Meanwhile, Trump has called for sweeping tariffs, which are taxes levied on imported goods from another country.

Trump’s proposed baseline 10% tariff and 60% levy on Chinese goods could reduce the average after-tax U.S. household income by roughly $1,800 in 2025, according to the Tax Policy Center.

During his event on Monday, Trump pushed back on the assertion that tariffs would cost American consumers. “It’s a tax on a foreign country,” he said.

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Tax cuts on tips, Social Security

Both campaigns have also floated eliminating income tax on tip income, pitching the idea at separate events in Nevada, a battleground state and service industry hotbed. Harris shared her plan on Aug. 10, roughly two months after Trump proposed the idea.

Despite some bipartisan support in Congress, the idea has faced criticism from some policy experts who believe the measure could face administrative hurdles and possible abuse.

The big question for us as policy wonks is, what is the underlying policy rationale?

Garrett Watson

Senior policy analyst and modeling manager at the Tax Foundation

“The big question for us as policy wonks is, what is the underlying policy rationale?” said Garrett Watson, senior policy analyst and modeling manager at the Tax Foundation.

Trump has also called for no taxes on Social Security income. Social Security is a key issue for voters this election, according to a CNBC poll. CNBC surveyed 1,001 registered voters July 31-Aug. 4.

Child tax credit expansion

Harris on Friday shared an economic plan, including an expanded child tax credit worth up to $6,000 in total tax relief for families with newborn children, among other priorities.

Her plan came less than one week after Sen. JD Vance of Ohio, former President Donald Trump‘s GOP running mate, floated a $5,000 child tax credit

A Trump campaign official told CNBC at the time: “Trump will consider a significant expansion of the child tax credit that applies to American families.”

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New Social Security increases may prompt higher tax bills, Medicare premiums

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Sdi Productions | E+ | Getty Images

Nearly 3 million individuals are poised to see their Social Security benefits increase, thanks to new changes signed into law by President Joe Biden this week. But with the higher checks could come additional tax burdens.

The Social Security Fairness Act — which passed by a bipartisan majority in both the House and Senate — ends reductions of Social Security benefits for certain individuals who also receive pension income from work in the public sector as firefighters, police officers, teachers and local, state and federal employees.

Those beneficiaries are set to see an increase to their monthly benefit checks. Because the legislation applies to benefits paid throughout 2024, they will also receive lump-sum payments to make up for that time.

The details of how those increases will be implemented are now being determined, according to the Social Security Administration.

In total, the benefit increases will cost $196 billion over a decade, according to the Congressional Budget Office. The additional outlay will move Social Security’s trust fund depletion dates six months closer. The program’s combined trust funds may pay full benefits until 2035, at which point just 83% of scheduled benefits may be payable, the program’s trustees projected last year.

How Social Security benefits may change

About 2.1 million beneficiaries — those who were affected by the Windfall Elimination Provision, or WEP — may see $360 more in monthly benefits on average, according to CBO estimates as of December 2025. The WEP, which has now been eliminated, reduced Social Security benefits for workers who also had pension or disability benefits from jobs where they did not pay Social Security payroll taxes.

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Additionally, about 380,000 spouses would see average benefit increases of $700 and 390,000 surviving spouses would see an average of $1,190 more, according to CBO’s estimates for December 2025.

Those beneficiaries were affected by the now-defunct Government Pension Offset, or GPO, which reduced Social Security benefits for spouses, widows and widowers who also receive their own pensions from public sector work.

The elimination of the provisions in many ways simplifies retirement income planning for affected beneficiaries, financial advisors say.

“For the people who are affected by this, you’re looking at a pretty significant increase, in many cases, of what their retirement income is going to be,” said Michael Daley, director of marketing at HealthView Services. “It’s good news for them.”

For financial planners and their clients, the challenge now is gauging how much of a benefit increase to expect and when to expect it, said Joe Elsasser, founder and president of Covisum, a Social Security claiming software company.

The extra income may also present some complications when it comes to affected beneficiaries’ taxes and Medicare premiums, experts say.

Beneficiaries could see higher taxes on benefits

Maximizing your Social Security benefits

Individuals pay taxes on up to 50% of their benefits if their combined income is between $25,000 and $34,000, or for married couples with between $32,000 and $44,000.

Individuals may pay taxes on up to 85% of their benefits if their combined income is more than $34,000; or for married couples with more than $44,000.

“Because Social Security benefits are taxed differently than everything else, people are going to really want to pay attention to their other sources of income,” Elsasser said of the anticipated benefit increases and lump sum payments.

For example, if a retiree has both a taxable account and traditional individual retirement account, they may want to prioritize withdrawals from the taxable account because only the gains would be taxed rather than the entire withdrawal, Elsasser explained. In the event the lump-sum payment of retroactive Social Security benefits is not distributed, they may take an IRA withdrawal later in the year.

Beneficiaries may see higher Medicare costs

Additional benefit income for individuals affected by the Social Security Fairness Act may also result in higher income-based surcharges for Medicare Parts B and D.

Medicare beneficiaries with higher incomes must pay what’s known as income-related monthly adjustment amounts, or IRMAAs, for their Part B and Part D premiums.

“If you get a lump sum but you’re not paying attention to your other incomes, you could unwittingly be pushed into higher Medicare premiums two years down the road,” Elsasser said.

That will mostly be a concern for people who are on the cusp of the income thresholds, he said.

In 2025, Medicare Part B beneficiaries who file individual tax returns with $106,000 or less in modified adjusted gross income — or married couples who file jointly with $212,000 or less — pay a standard monthly premium of $185 per month.

Beneficiaries above those income thresholds pay higher Part B premium payments, based on an IRMAA. This year’s rates are based on income on tax returns filed in 2023.

In 2025, Part D beneficiaries over the $106,000 threshold for individuals and $212,000 for married couples are also subject to income-related monthly adjustment amounts in addition to their plan premiums. Those monthly premiums are also based on yearly income reported on tax filings for 2023. In 2025, the national base Part D premium is $36.78.

Steps to take now

Beneficiaries who are affected by the Social Security Fairness Act should consider consulting with a financial advisor to assess the implications of the change on their personal financial circumstances, said Ron Mastrogiovanni, chairman and CEO of HealthView Services.

Additionally, it would help to sit down with a certified public accountant when filing their taxes to plan for 2025, he said.

The Social Security Administration also plans to provide more guidance on the new law as more details become available.

For now, the agency recommends verifying that direct deposit and mailing address it has on file is still accurate. To update that information, the Social Security recommends changing it online or calling or visiting a Social Security office in person.

Some individuals may now become eligible for Social Security benefits for the first time, now that the WEP and GPO provisions have been eliminated.

To file for benefits, the Social Security Administration recommends either filing online or scheduling an appointment with the agency.

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Taxpayer Advocate urges Congress to preserve IRS funding for service

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Erin Collins, national taxpayer advocate at the Taxpayer Advocate Service, speaks at a Senate Appropriations subcommittee hearing in Washington, D.C., on May 19, 2021.

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

As the IRS faces scrutiny from a Republican-controlled Congress, the agency’s internal watchdog has urged lawmakers to preserve taxpayer service and technology funding.

The National Taxpayer Advocate on Wednesday released its annual report to Congress, which criticized the “extreme imbalance in funding priorities” when comparing the billions of dollars allocated via the Inflation Reduction Act.

While the tens of billions earmarked for enforcement has “generated controversy,” there’s been “strong bipartisan support” for taxpayer services and technology modernization, wrote Erin Collins, national taxpayer advocate.

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Of the original $78.9 billion Inflation Reduction Act funding, the legislation earmarked 58% for enforcement and 32% for operations support, according to the report. By comparison, the budget allocated 4% for taxpayer service and 6% for technology modernization.  

With sufficient funding for services and technology, “taxpayer experiences will become fairer and more efficient, which likely will improve compliance and reduce the need for costly backend enforcement,” Collins wrote.

During fiscal year 2024, the IRS collected $98.7 billion through enforcement, which was less than 2% of all revenue, according to the agency’s 2024 financial report. The remaining 98% of federal taxes were “self-assessed” via annual tax returns and timely payments. 

If Congress reduces enforcement funding, it shouldn’t include commensurate cuts to taxpayer services and technology, which could “inadvertently throw the baby out with the bathwater,” Collins wrote. 

With added costs to “pull itself out of the pandemic” and yearly appropriations held steady amid rising costs over the past few years, the IRS has needed to spend part of its multi-year funding to maintain current operations, she added.  

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Congress rescinded $20 billion in IRS funding as part of a 2023 budget deal, and Republicans have vowed to make further cuts. Another $20 billion was automatically clawed back when lawmakers in December extended the 2023 deal to avoid a government shutdown.  

Further IRS funding cuts could be possible in 2025 with Republican control of Congress and the White House.

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How natural disaster forbearance for student loan borrowers works

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Fire engulfs a home as the Eaton Fire moves through the area on January 08, 2025 in Altadena, California. 

Justin Sullivan | Getty Images

Federal student loan borrowers affected by the wildfires ripping across Southern California have relief options if they’re worried about keeping up with their payments as they recover.

The same holds true for other people with education debt who find themselves grappling with extreme weather and climate disasters.

“Borrowers impacted by natural disasters may qualify for temporary relief from student loan payments,” said Carolina Rodriguez, director of the Education Debt Consumer Assistance Program, based in New York.

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It’s a good idea for borrowers to familiarize themselves with the relief available to them in case they should need it, experts said.

There was a record number — 28 — of billion-dollar disasters in the U.S. during 2023, including wildfires, droughts and tornados, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. By November of 2024, there were 24 confirmed weather and climate disaster events with losses also exceeding $1 billion each.

Here’s what federal student loan holders should know about their options during a natural disaster.

How a natural disaster forbearance works

The Heroes Act of 2003 provides “several forms of relief” to certain student loan borrowers who live in or are employed in an area that is affected by a natural disaster, said higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz. Likely one of the most helpful options will be a natural disaster forbearance.

“Climate change has affected the frequency and severity of natural disasters, making these waivers and forbearances increasingly important,” Kantrowitz said.

At Studentaid.gov, the Education Department says its federal student loan servicers check the Federal Emergency Management Agency website at least once each business day to identify all impacted areas connected to a disaster declaration.

In many cases, the U.S. Department of Education will automatically put qualifying borrowers into a natural disaster forbearance, Kantrowitz said.

Fire engulfs a home as the Eaton Fire moves through the area on January 08, 2025 in Altadena, California. 

Justin Sullivan | Getty Images

“Borrowers generally do not need to apply for this,” he added. Still, borrowers who want to make sure their payments are paused might want to contact their loan servicer.

The natural disaster forbearance lasts for up to 90 days, according to the Education Department. In some cases, borrowers will be granted 30-day extensions. However, the forbearance can’t exceed 12 monthly billing cycles from the date of the disaster. (Loan interest continues to accrue during the payment pause.)

Meanwhile, those who want to decline the automatic natural disaster forbearance because they’re able to make their payments should contact the Education Department to do so.

Relief for current students, delinquent borrowers

Borrowers who are students at the time of a natural disaster may continue to qualify for an in-school deferment, Kantrowitz said, even if they’re not able to complete the school year.

If you’re in default on your student loans and impacted, you or a family member can contact the Education Department and request a three-month suspension of collection activity.

‘Documentation may not be necessary’

Your loan servicer may request certain documents to verify your eligibility for the forbearance, but you should be granted deadline extensions if the disaster makes accessing such paperwork difficult or impossible.

“Documentation may not be necessary, given that documentation is often lost during a natural disaster,” Kantrowitz said. “You just need to show that you are an affected individual. The request can be made orally and does not need to be in writing.” (Showing that you’re impacted may be as easy as providing the address of your home or workplace.)

Climate change has affected the frequency and severity of natural disasters, making these waivers and forbearances increasingly important.

Mark Kantrowitz

higher education expert

Ineligible borrowers may have other relief options

If the natural disaster is not federally-declared or borrowers aren’t deemed eligible for the forbearance for some reason, they can still request a temporary payment pause by applying for a general forbearance with their servicer, EDCAP’s Rodriguez said.

Borrowers should keep in mind that interest can continue to accrue on their debt during a forbearance, and that they might not get credit toward a debt forgiveness program while they’re not making payments, she added.

You’ll likely have fewer disaster relief options with your private student loans, Rodriguez said.

Still, she said, “it is essential to reach out to private lenders as soon as possible to explore available relief and prevent delinquency or default.”

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