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Bank of England holds interest rates, British pound rallies to more than two-year high

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Commuters cycles past the Bank of England (BOE), left, in the City of London, UK, on Monday, Sept. 16, 2024. The central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee’s interest rate decision is scheduled for release on Sept. 19. 

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

LONDON — The Bank of England on Thursday said it would hold interest rates steady following its initial cut in August, even after the U.S. Federal Reserve opted for a jumbo rate cut the day before.

The Monetary Policy Committee voted by 8 to 1 to hold, with the dissenting member voting for a 0.25 percentage point cut.

A “gradual approach” to monetary easing remained appropriate, with services inflation remaining “elevated,” the committee said. The U.K. economy, which has returned to growth but been sluggish this year, is expected to return to an underlying pace of around 0.3% per quarter in the second half, it added.

The British pound was bolstered by both announcements, trading up 0.72% against the U.S. dollar at $1.3306 at 12:10 p.m. London time Thursday. That was the highest rate since March 2022, according to LSEG data.

Global equity markets meanwhile rallied Thursday, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 index 1.35% higher.

Also being closely-watched Thursday is the BOE’s annual announcement on the pace of quantitative tightening (QT). The central bank voted to reduce its stock of bonds – known as gilts – by £100 billion ($133 billion) over the next twelve months through active sales and the maturation of bonds.

That amount was in-line with the prior period, against the expectation of some for an acceleration of the program.

The BOE sustains losses on its QT program, subsidized by the taxpayer, because they were bought in the past at higher prices than they are being sold for. However, BOE Governor Andrew Bailey argues it needs to conduct QT now to have space to undertake more quantitative easing or other operations in the future.

The committee is assessing a mixed bag of data, with headline inflation consistently coming in near to its 2% target but price rises in services — accounting for around 80% of the U.K. economy — ticking higher to 5.6% in August. Wage growth in the U.K. cooled to a more than two-year low over the three months to July, but remained relatively high at 5.1%.

The BOE confirmed expectations for a hold even after the U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday kicked off its own rate cuts in the current cycle with a 50 basis point reduction. Many strategists had expected a smaller 25 basis point cut at the September meeting, despite market pricing through this week pointing to more than 50% probability of the more aggressive option.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell told a news conference the central bank was “trying to achieve a situation where we restore price stability without the kind of painful increase in unemployment that has come sometimes with this inflation.” Recent U.S. labor market data had sparked concerns about the extent of the slowdown in the world’s largest economy.

The British pound was bolstered by the Fed news, trading up 0.5% against the U.S. dollar at $1.327 at 11:15 a.m. London time Thursday. Global equity markets meanwhile rallied, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 index 1.34% higher.

The Bank of England cut its key rate to 5% from 5.25% in August in a tight 5 to 4 vote, and was widely expected to hold them there until its next meeting in November .

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Frederik Ducrozet, head of macroeconomic research at Pictet Wealth Management, said regarding the QT program that the Bank of England was “stuck between a rock and a hard place and that’s because of the choice they made in the past,” and because it was the only central bank in the world that was recording these types of losses.

The U.K.’s new Labour government is due to deliver its first budget in October. Extending passive and active QT into next year will create “problems for fiscal policy, at least it doesn’t make the government’s job easier,” Ducrozet told CNBC’s “Street Signs Europe” shortly ahead of the decision.

“Or you don’t, and then you look like you’re not really independent from the government, you make more losses and you have to manage that over time,” he said.

Economics

Will Elon Musk’s cash splash pay off in Wisconsin?

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TO GET A sense of what the Republican Party thinks of the electoral value of Elon Musk, listen to what Brad Schimel, a conservative candidate for the Supreme Court of Wisconsin, has to say about the billionaire. At an event on March 29th at an airsoft range (a more serious version of paintball) just outside Kenosha, five speakers, including Mr Schimel, spoke for over an hour about the importance of the election to the Republican cause. Mr Musk’s political action committees (PACs) have poured over $20m into the race, far more than any other donor’s. But over the course of the event, his name came up precisely zero times.

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Economics

German inflation, March 2025

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Customers shop for fresh fruits and vegetables in a supermarket in Munich, Germany, on March 8, 2025.

Michael Nguyen | Nurphoto | Getty Images

German inflation came in at a lower-than-expected 2.3% in March, preliminary data from the country’s statistics office Destatis showed Monday.

It compares to February’s 2.6% print, which was revised lower from a preliminary reading, and a poll of Reuters economists who had been expecting inflation to come in at 2.4% The print is harmonized across the euro area for comparability. 

On a monthly basis, harmonized inflation rose 0.4%. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy costs, came in at 2.5%, below February’s 2.7% reading.

Meanwhile services inflation, which had long been sticky, also eased to 3.4% in March, from 3.8% in the previous month.

The data comes at a critical time for the German economy as U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs loom and fiscal and economic policy shifts at home could be imminent.

Trade is a key pillar for the German economy, making it more vulnerable to the uncertainty and quickly changing developments currently dominating global trade policy. A slew of levies from the U.S. are set to come into force this week, including 25% tariffs on imported cars — a sector that is key to Germany’s economy. The country’s political leaders and car industry heavyweights have slammed Trump’s plans.

Meanwhile Germany’s political parties are working to establish a new coalition government following the results of the February 2025 federal election. Negotiations are underway between the Christian Democratic Union, alongside its sister party the Christian Social Union, and the Social Democratic Union.

While various points of contention appear to remain between the parties, their talks have already yielded some results. Earlier this month, Germany’s lawmakers voted in favor of a major fiscal package, which included amendments to long-standing debt rules to allow for higher defense spending and a 500-billion-euro ($541 billion) infrastructure fund.

This is a breaking news story, please check back for updates.

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Economics

First-quarter GDP growth will be just 0.3% as tariffs stoke stagflation conditions, says CNBC survey

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U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to members of the media aboard Air Force One before landing in West Palm Beach, Florida, U.S., March 28, 2025. 

Kevin Lamarque | Reuters

Policy uncertainty and new sweeping tariffs from the Trump administration are combining to create a stagflationary outlook for the U.S. economy in the latest CNBC Rapid Update.

The Rapid Update, averaging forecasts from 14 economists for GDP and inflation, sees first quarter growth registering an anemic 0.3% compared with the 2.3% reported in the fourth quarter of 2024. It would be the weakest growth since 2022 as the economy emerged from the pandemic.

Core PCE inflation, meanwhile, the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator, will remain stuck at around 2.9% for most of the year before resuming its decline in the fourth quarter.

Behind the dour GDP forecasts is new evidence that the decline in consumer and business sentiment is showing up in real economic activity. The Commerce Department on Friday reported that real, or inflation-adjusted consumer spending in February rose just 0.1%, after a decline of -0.6% in January. Action Economics dropped its outlook for spending growth to just 0.2% in this quarter from 4% in the fourth quarter.

“Signs of slowing in hard activity data are becoming more convincing, following an earlier worsening in sentiment,” wrote Barclays over the weekend.

Another factor: a surge of imports (which subtract from GDP) that appear to have poured into the U.S. ahead of tariffs.

The good news is the import effect should abate and only two of the 12 economists surveyed see negative growth in Q1. None forecast consecutive quarters of economic contraction. Oxford Economics, which has the lowest Q1 estimate at -1.6%, expects a continued drag from imports but sees second quarter GDP rebounding to 1.9%, because those imports will eventually end up boosting growth when they are counted in inventory or sales measures.

Recession risks rising

On average, most economists forecast a gradual rebound, with second quarter GDP averaging 1.4%, third quarter at 1.6% and the final quarter of the year rising to 2%.

The danger is an economy with anemic growth of just 0.3% could easily slip into negative territory. And, with new tariffs set to come this week, not everyone is so sure about a rebound.

“While our baseline doesn’t show a decline in real GDP, given the mounting global trade war and DOGE cuts to jobs and funding, there is a good chance GDP will decline in the first and even the second quarters of this year,” said Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics. “And a recession will be likely if the president doesn’t begin backtracking on the tariffs by the third quarter.”

Moody’s looks for anemic Q1 growth of just 0.4% that rebounds to 1.6% by year end, which is still modestly below trend.

Stubborn inflation will complicate the Fed’s ability to respond to flagging growth. Core PCE is expected at 2.8% this quarter, rising to 3% next quarter and staying roughly at that level until in drops to 2.6% a year from now.

While the market looks to be banking on rate cuts, the Fed could find them difficult to justify until inflation begins falling more convincingly at the end of the year.

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