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Swiss central bank cuts rates by a quarter point in third trim this year

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A view of the headquarters of the Swiss National Bank (SNB), before a press conference in Zurich, Switzerland, March 21, 2024. 

Denis Balibouse | Reuters

The Swiss National Bank on Thursday took a third step to loosen monetary policy this year, bringing its key interest rate down by 25 basis points to 1.0%.

The trim, which had been anticipated by 30 of 32 analysts surveyed in a Reuters poll, marked the SNB’s third interest rate reduction of 2024.

It was the first major Western central bank to reduce interest rates back in March.

The third trim comes amid similar signals from the European Central Bank and the U.S. Federal Reserve, which took the long-awaited plunge to slim down its interest rates with a 50-basis-point cut last week. Domestically, Swiss inflation remains subdued, with the latest headline print pointing to a 1.1% annual increase in August.

The Swiss franc gained ground against major currencies on the back of the latest interest rate decision. The U.S. dollar and euro were down nearly 0.14% and 0.16% against the Swiss coin, respectively — meeting ING analysts’ expectations that the cut would lead to “outperformance” of the Swiss currency.

The strengthening of the Swiss currency in August prompted one of the country’s largest associations, the technology manufacturers’ group Swissmem to entreat the SNB to “act soon, in line with its mandate” and ease pressures constraining local businesses.

“This renewed exacerbation has come at a sensitive time for one of the key export industries: following a tough period of over a year, a slow recovery was in sight. If the upside pressure cannot be contained, these hopes will dissipate,” Swissmem said at the time.

The SNB acknowledged the broader trend of its currency rally as a key contributor to the Thursday reduction.

“Inflationary pressure in Switzerland has again decreased significantly compared to the previous quarter. Among other things, this decrease reflects the appreciation of the Swiss franc over the last three months,” it said in a statement.

“The SNB’s easing of monetary policy today takes the reduction in inflationary pressure into account. Further cuts in the SNB policy rate may become necessary in the coming quarters to ensure price stability over the medium term,” it added.

“The SNB has consistently been behind the curve on its inflation forecasts this year, even as it has conditioned them on lower rates each time. The 0.6% forecast for 2025 is likely a bit too close for comfort for a central bank keen to return to deflation,” said Kyle Chapman, FX markets analyst at Ballinger Group.

“I expect another two 25bp moves in December and March at the very least, primarily because I don’t see any near-term sources of depreciation for the franc without a stronger stance on intervention from the SNB. We are heading back towards zero relatively quickly,” Chapman added. 

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Economics

UK inflation September 2024

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The Canary Wharf business district is seen in the distance behind autumnal leaves on October 09, 2024 in London, United Kingdom.

Dan Kitwood | Getty Images News | Getty Images

LONDON — Inflation in the U.K. dropped sharply to 1.7% in September, the Office for National Statistics said Wednesday.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected the headline rate to come in at a higher 1.9% for the month, in the first dip of the print below the Bank of England’s 2% target since April 2021.

Inflation has been hovering around that level for the last four months, and came in at 2.2% in August.

Core inflation, which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, came in at 3.2% for the month, down from 3.6% in August and below the 3.4% forecast of a Reuters poll.

Price rises in the services sector, the dominant portion of the U.K. economy, eased significantly to 4.9% last month from 5.6% in August, now hitting its lowest rate since May 2022.

Core and services inflation are key watch points for Bank of England policymakers as they mull whether to cut interest rates again at their November meeting.

As of Wednesday morning, market pricing put an 80% probability on a November rate cut ahead of the latest inflation print. Analysts on Tuesday said lower wage growth reported by the ONS this week had supported the case for a cut. The BOE reduced its key rate by 25 basis points in August before holding in September.

Within the broader European region, inflation in the euro zone dipped below the European Central Bank’s 2% target last month, hitting 1.8%, according to the latest data.

This is a breaking news story and will be updated shortly.

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Economics

Why Larry Hogan’s long-odds bid for a Senate seat matters

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FEW REPUBLICAN politicians differ more from Donald Trump than Larry Hogan, the GOP Senate candidate in Maryland. Consider the contrasts between a Trump rally and a Hogan event. Whereas Mr Trump prefers to take the stage and riff in front of packed arenas, Mr Hogan spent a recent Friday night chatting with locals at a waterfront wedding venue in Baltimore County. Mr Hogan’s stump speech, at around ten minutes, felt as long as a single off-script Trump tangent. Mr Trump delights in defying his advisers; Mr Hogan fastidiously sticks to talking points about bipartisanship, good governance and overcoming tough odds. Put another way, Mr Hogan’s campaign is something Mr Trump is rarely accused of being: boring. But it is intriguing.

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Economics

Polarisation by education is remaking American politics

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DEPENDING ON where exactly you find yourself, western Pennsylvania can feel Appalachian, Midwestern, booming or downtrodden. No matter where, however, this part of the state feels like the centre of the American political universe. Since she became the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, Kamala Harris has visited Western Pennsylvania six times—more often than Philadelphia, on the other side of the state. She will mark her seventh on a trip on October 14th, to the small city of Erie, where Donald Trump also held a rally recently. Democratic grandees flit through Pittsburgh regularly. It is where Ms Harris chose to unveil the details of her economic agenda, and it is where Barack Obama visited on October 10th to deliver encouragement and mild chastisement. “Do not just sit back and hope for the best,” he admonished. “Get off your couch and vote.”

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