While China’s property development giants find their footing amid the ongoing real estate slump, several analysts have their sights on housing transaction and services platform KE Holdings . Listed in the U.S. under the ticker “BEKE,” the company is known in Mandarin Chinese as Beike and operates the Lianjia platform popular with apartment renters in major Chinese cities. The stock also trades in Hong Kong. KE Holdings’ U.S.-traded shares are up 38% in 2024. In contrast, an index of Chinese property stocks in Hong Kong has gained just under 3% for the year after a volatile three weeks. “We expect BEKE’s existing and new homes transactions to benefit from recent government support measures in 2025,” Jefferies analysts said in an Oct. 7 note. They also noted how the company has tapped business opportunities in renovations, home rentals and connecting consumers to home contractors. Jefferies rates the stock a buy, with a price target of $30. That suggests upside of nearly 34% from Friday’s close of $22.41. “We expect BEKE to capture the long-term value in brokerage services on existing and new homes in China,” the Jefferies report said. Chinese President Xi Jinping in late September led a meeting that pledged to ” halt the real estate market decline and spur a stable recovery,” the readout said in Chinese, translated by CNBC. The high-level announcement came two days after the People’s Bank of China promised to cut rates for existing mortgage holders and extend prior real estate support policies. Four major Chinese cities, including Beijing, eased home purchase restrictions late last month, just as the country was headed into a week-long holiday. Industry data indicate real estate transactions in major cities surged during the holiday versus a year ago, and will likely keep up a similar pace in coming weeks. But China’s giant property developers now face a market that’s very different from the one they saw in their heyday. It’s a shift from relying on pre-sales of unfinished apartments , to tackling a market with existing, older inventory — and an aging population. “While the holiday data suggests some improvement in new home sales, we believe the recovery of China’s property market will be prolonged, even with potential fiscal support,” Richard Tang, China strategist and head of research Hong Kong, Julius Baer, said in an email. “As such, we recommend investors take advantage of market strength to reduce exposure to property and related stocks,” Tang said. He did not name specific stocks. Bank of America Securities analysts said in an Oct. 9 note they hosted a call with an “expert from a large property agency chain” who predicted home prices would fall by another 10% before stabilizing. The expert also cautioned that he doesn’t see a fundamental change in home buyers’ expectations, meaning it remains to be seen whether high transaction volumes would persist, the report said. About half of the expert’s stores are connected to KE Holdings’ platform, and he noted the company has “very high market share” in most existing and new home brokerage channels in China, the Bank of America report said. BofA Securities raised its price target to $24, up from $21, while maintaining a neutral rating over concerns about sustainable growth. In the near term, a stock market change could also be a catalyst for the stock. Goldman Sachs analysts said in an Oct. 1 note that KE’s Hong Kong-listed shares could soon become eligible for inclusion in the connect program that allows investors in mainland China to buy stocks listed in Hong Kong. They also “see Beike as a clear beneficiary of recent policy easing, especially considering that the 4 tier-1 cities combined contribute to 40-50% of Beike’s existing home [gross transaction volume] by our estimate.” Even before the latest policy easing, the Goldman analysts pointed out that the average transaction price for existing homes on Beike fell by only 1% in September from the prior month, less than the 3% month-on-month drop between July and August. “The company held US$10.5bn net cash as of Jun 2024 and is committed to 6-7% shareholder return yield p.a. via share buybacks and dividend,” the analysts said. “We see risk-reward as skewed to the upside and are Buy-rated with attractive valuation relative to historical levels and its profit growth outlook.” Goldman has a price target of 54 Hong Kong dollars ($6.95) and $21 for the company’s U.S.-listed shares. — CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.
Check out the companies making headlines in midday trading: American Airlines — Shares slipped less than 1%, recovering from earlier losses, after the airline temporarily grounded all of its flights due to a technical issue. Broadcom — The semi stock added 2%, extending its December rally. Shares have surged more than 46% this month, propelling its 2024 gain above 112%. Big banks — Shares of some big bank stocks rose more than 1% amid news that a group of banks and business groups are suing the Federal Reserve over the annual stress tests, saying it “produces vacillating and unexplained requirements and restrictions on bank capital.” Citigroup , JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs shares gained more than 1% each. Arcadium Lithium — Shares rose more than 4% after the company announced its shareholders have approved the $6.7 billion sale to Rio Tinto . The deal is expected to close in mid-2025. International Seaways — The energy transportation provider surged 8% after an announcement that the company would be added to the S & P SmallCap 600 index, effective Dec. 30. The company will replace Consolidated Communications , which is soon to be acquired. Crypto stocks — Shares of stocks tied to the price of bitcoin rose as the cryptocurrency gave back recent losses amid a climb in tech names broadly. Crypto services provider Coinbase gained almost 3% and bitcoin proxy MicroStrategy gained more than 5%. Miners Riot Platforms and IREN gained 6% and 4%, respectively. U.S. Steel — The steel producer’s stock hovered near the flatline amid news that President Joe Biden will decide on the fate of its proposed acquisition by Japan’s Nippon Steel after a government panel failed to reach a decision . Apple — Apple shares gained 0.9% to notch a new all-time high. The stock has rallied nearly 34% year to date. — CNBC’s Sean Conlon, Lisa Han, Tanaya Macheel and Alex Harring contributed reporting.
A general view of the Federal Reserve Building in Washington, United States.
Samuel Corum | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images
The biggest banks are planning to sue the Federal Reserve over the annual bank stress tests, according to a person familiar with the matter. A lawsuit is expected this week and could come as soon as Tuesday morning, the person said.
The Fed’s stress test is an annual ritual that forces banks to maintain adequate cushions for bad loans and dictates the size of share repurchases and dividends.
After the market close on Monday, the Federal Reserve announced in a statement that it is looking to make changes to the bank stress tests and will be seeking public comment on what it calls “significant changes to improve the transparency of its bank stress tests and to reduce the volatility of resulting capital buffer requirements.”
The Fed said it made the determination to change the tests because of “the evolving legal landscape,” pointing to changes in administrative laws in recent years. It didn’t outline any specific changes to the framework of the annual stress tests.
While the big banks will likely view the changes as a win, it may be too little too late.
Also, the changes may not go far enough to satisfy the banks’ concerns about onerous capital requirements. “These proposed changes are not designed to materially affect overall capital requirements, according to the Fed.
The CEO of BPI (Bank Policy Institute), Greg Baer, which represents big banks like JPMorgan, Citigroup and Goldman Sachs, welcomed the Fed announcement, saying in a statement “The Board’s announcement today is a first step towards transparency and accountability.”
However, Baer also hinted at further action: “We are reviewing it closely and considering additional options to ensure timely reforms that are both good law and good policy.”
Groups like the BPI and the American Bankers Association have raised concerns about the stress test process in the past, claiming that it is opaque, and has resulted in higher capital rules that hurt bank lending and economic growth.
In July, the groups accused the Fed of being in violation of the Administrative Procedure Act, because it didn’t seek public comment on its stress scenarios and kept supervisory models secret.