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El-Erian says the Fed has turned into a play-by-play commentator

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Mohamed Aly El-Erian, chief economic advisor for Allianz SE. 

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The U.S. Federal Reserve has become too data dependent and has lost sight of its overall strategy, Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz, said Friday.

The economist told CNBC that a longer-term, more strategic outlook could see policymakers settle on a new inflation target of closer to 3%.

“Rather than be strategic, this Fed is overly data dependent, and has turned into a play-by-play commentator,” El-Erian told CNBC’s Steve Sedgwick at the Ambrosetti Spring Forum in Italy.

“That’s not the role of the Fed,” he continued. “The Fed should be strategic, the Fed should provide a strategic anchor, a stabilizer.”

“The mistake that they may make is they’ll end up this time being too tight,” he said.

The U.S. Federal Reserve did not immediately respond to a CNBC request for comment.

This Fed is 'overly data-dependent,' says Allianz chief economic advisor

El-Erian’s comments follow a recent chorus of Fed policymakers who have begun speaking conservatively about rate cuts.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday that the Bank would need further evidence to assess the current state of inflation, casting doubt on expectations for a June interest rate cut.

A day later, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said he wondered if the central bank should cut rates at all if inflation remained sticky, causing markets to tumble.

El-Erian said the comments were an example of the Fed “overreacting to data,” and said that it should take a more holistic view of the economy.

However, he noted that policymakers’ hawkish approach could be an indication that they are considering the possibility of a new normal inflation target.

“The way you discuss it politely is you don’t say ‘let’s change the inflation target,’ you say ‘let’s get to 2% somewhere in the future. Let’s have a trajectory’,” El-Erian said. “It may well prove that the economy is stable nearer to 3%. I don’t think that’s going to de-anchor inflation expectations,” he added.

In an effort to drag inflation back down toward its target, the Fed has hiked interest rates 11 times in total over the last few years to a target range of 5.25%-5.5% — the highest level for more than 22 years.

Economics

UK inflation September 2024

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The Canary Wharf business district is seen in the distance behind autumnal leaves on October 09, 2024 in London, United Kingdom.

Dan Kitwood | Getty Images News | Getty Images

LONDON — Inflation in the U.K. dropped sharply to 1.7% in September, the Office for National Statistics said Wednesday.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected the headline rate to come in at a higher 1.9% for the month, in the first dip of the print below the Bank of England’s 2% target since April 2021.

Inflation has been hovering around that level for the last four months, and came in at 2.2% in August.

Core inflation, which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, came in at 3.2% for the month, down from 3.6% in August and below the 3.4% forecast of a Reuters poll.

Price rises in the services sector, the dominant portion of the U.K. economy, eased significantly to 4.9% last month from 5.6% in August, now hitting its lowest rate since May 2022.

Core and services inflation are key watch points for Bank of England policymakers as they mull whether to cut interest rates again at their November meeting.

As of Wednesday morning, market pricing put an 80% probability on a November rate cut ahead of the latest inflation print. Analysts on Tuesday said lower wage growth reported by the ONS this week had supported the case for a cut. The BOE reduced its key rate by 25 basis points in August before holding in September.

Within the broader European region, inflation in the euro zone dipped below the European Central Bank’s 2% target last month, hitting 1.8%, according to the latest data.

This is a breaking news story and will be updated shortly.

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Why Larry Hogan’s long-odds bid for a Senate seat matters

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FEW REPUBLICAN politicians differ more from Donald Trump than Larry Hogan, the GOP Senate candidate in Maryland. Consider the contrasts between a Trump rally and a Hogan event. Whereas Mr Trump prefers to take the stage and riff in front of packed arenas, Mr Hogan spent a recent Friday night chatting with locals at a waterfront wedding venue in Baltimore County. Mr Hogan’s stump speech, at around ten minutes, felt as long as a single off-script Trump tangent. Mr Trump delights in defying his advisers; Mr Hogan fastidiously sticks to talking points about bipartisanship, good governance and overcoming tough odds. Put another way, Mr Hogan’s campaign is something Mr Trump is rarely accused of being: boring. But it is intriguing.

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Polarisation by education is remaking American politics

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DEPENDING ON where exactly you find yourself, western Pennsylvania can feel Appalachian, Midwestern, booming or downtrodden. No matter where, however, this part of the state feels like the centre of the American political universe. Since she became the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, Kamala Harris has visited Western Pennsylvania six times—more often than Philadelphia, on the other side of the state. She will mark her seventh on a trip on October 14th, to the small city of Erie, where Donald Trump also held a rally recently. Democratic grandees flit through Pittsburgh regularly. It is where Ms Harris chose to unveil the details of her economic agenda, and it is where Barack Obama visited on October 10th to deliver encouragement and mild chastisement. “Do not just sit back and hope for the best,” he admonished. “Get off your couch and vote.”

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