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Gas prices creep up amid rising oil prices due to mounting tensions between Russia and Ukraine

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Gas prices rose by just three cents last week.  (iStock)

The national average gas price across the U.S. rose by just three cents last week and now sits at $3.56 per gallon, according to AAA’s weekly report.

With spring now here, gas demand is crawling up. Data from the Energy Information Administration showed that demand rose from 8.72 million barrels per day to 9.23 million barrels per day. With oil prices in the mid-$80s per barrel, gas prices are slowly creeping up.

The continued war between Russia and Ukraine and tensions in the Middle East also added to the rising cost of oil.

“Renewed Ukrainian attacks on Russia’s oil infrastructure and increasing tension in the Middle East spiked oil prices recently,” AAA Spokesperson Andrew Gross said. “And with the cost of oil accounting for roughly 60% of what we pay at the pump, there will likely be some upward pressure on prices.”    

This week’s national average is 21 cents higher than this time last month and six cents higher than last year.

If you’re looking to save on one of the biggest auto-related costs, consider shopping around for better car insurance rates. Credible’s car insurance marketplace simplifies this quote process, helping you compare rates from multiple companies all in one place.

CAR INSURANCE COSTS TO KEEP RISING IN 2024 – PAY LESS IN THESE US STATES

These states saw the highest increases in gas prices

Since last week, certain states have seen higher increases in their average gas prices than others. The 10 states that had the highest increases include:

  • Indiana (+19)
  • Arizona (+19)
  • California (+17)
  • Ohio (+15)
  • New Mexico (+15)
  • Utah (+11)
  • Alaska (+10)
  • Kentucky (+10)
  • Nevada, (+10)
  • Idaho (+9)

Some of these states overlap with the most expensive markets. The 10 states where you’ll pay the most for gas include:

  • California ($5.20)
  • Hawaii ($4.69)
  • Washington ($4.57)
  • Nevada ($4.49)
  • Oregon ($4.33)
  • Alaska ($4.18)
  • Arizona ($3.97)
  • Illinois ($3.91)
  • Utah ($3.87)
  • Idaho ($3.75)

Comparing multiple insurance quotes can potentially save you hundreds of dollars per year. Get a free quote in minutes through Credible’s partners.

DRIVERS WANT EMBEDDED INSURANCE OPTIONS WHEN THEY BUY A CAR: SURVEY

The price for new cars is finally going down

Prospective car buyers are finally catching a break. The average price for new cars declined in March 2024.

“The average new-vehicle retail transaction price is declining as manufacturer incentives rise, retailer profit margins fall and availability of lower-priced vehicles increases,” Thomas King, J.D. Power president of the data and analytics division, said in a press release.

Prices are down $1,648 and now hover around $44,186, on average, King explained. This is the largest decline in the month of March ever. With lowering prices, this means more drivers are intending to buy. Compared to March 2023, sales are projected to increase by 10.7%. Sales of new vehicles are expected to reach 1,225,000 units.

“Rising inventory means fewer vehicles are being pre-sold by retailers, with more shoppers able to buy directly off dealer lots,” King said. “This month, J.D. Power projects that 31.7% of vehicles will sell within 10 days of arriving at the dealership, down from a peak of 58% in March 2022.”

Used car prices are also down since last year. In March, used vehicle prices averaged $27,950, a 4.3% — or $1,248 — decrease, J.D. Power reported.

If you’re getting a new car, make sure you have the right insurance coverage at the right price. It’s important to compare several auto insurance companies, as well as their coverages, before deciding on a policy. Credible’s car insurance marketplace makes comparing quotes quick and painless.

NEW CAR PURCHASES ARE ON THE RISE, BUT THERE ARE INSURANCE IMPLICATIONS

Have a finance-related question, but don’t know who to ask? Email The Credible Money Expert at [email protected] and your question might be answered by Credible in our Money Expert column.

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Tariffs may raise much less than White House projects, economists say

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President Donald Trump speaks before signing executive orders in the Oval Office on March 6, 2025.

Alex Wong | Getty Images

President Donald Trump says that tariffs will make the U.S. “rich.” But those riches will likely be far less than the White House expects, economists said.

The ultimate sum could have big ramifications for the U.S. economy, the nation’s debt and legislative negotiations over a tax-cut package, economists said.

White House trade adviser Peter Navarro on Sunday estimated tariffs would raise about $600 billion a year and $6 trillion over a decade. Auto tariffs would add another $100 billion a year, he said on “Fox News Sunday.”

Navarro made the projection as the U.S. plans to announce more tariffs against U.S. trading partners on Wednesday.

Economists expect the Trump administration’s tariff policy would generate a much lower amount of revenue than Navarro claims. Some project the total revenue would be less than half.

Roughly $600 billion to $700 billion a year “is not even in the realm of possibility,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s. “If you get to $100 billion to $200 billion, you’ll be pretty lucky.”

The White House declined to respond to a request for comment from CNBC about tariff revenue.

The ‘mental math’ behind tariff revenue

There are big question marks over the scope of the tariffs, including details like amount, duration, and products and countries affected — all of which have a significant bearing on the revenue total.

The White House is considering a 20% tariff on most imports, The Washington Post reported on Tuesday. President Trump floated this idea on the campaign trail. The Trump administration may ultimately opt for a different policy, like country-by-country tariffs based on each nation’s respective trade and non-trade barriers.

But a 20% tariff rate seems to align with Navarro’s revenue projections, economists said.

The U.S. imported about $3.3 trillion of goods in 2024. Applying a 20% tariff rate to all these imports would yield about $660 billion of annual revenue.

“That is almost certainly the mental math Peter Navarro is doing — and that mental math skips some crucial steps,” said Ernie Tedeschi, director of economics at the Yale Budget Lab and former chief economist at the White House Council of Economic Advisers during the Biden administration.

Trade advisor to U.S. President Donald Trump Peter Navarro speaks to press outside of the White House on March 12, 2025 in Washington, DC. 

Kayla Bartkowski | Getty Images

That’s because an accurate revenue estimate must account for the many economic impacts of tariffs in the U.S. and around the world, economists said. Those effects combine to reduce revenue, they said.

A 20% broad tariff would raise about $250 billion a year (or $2.5 trillion over a decade) when taking those effects into account, according to Tedeschi, citing a Yale Budget Lab analysis published Monday.  

There are ways to raise larger sums — but they would involve higher tariff rates, economists said. For example, a 50% across-the-board tariff would raise about $780 billion per year, according to economists at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

Even that is an optimistic assessment: It doesn’t account for lower U.S. economic growth due to retaliation or the negative growth effects from the tariffs themselves, they wrote.

Why revenue would be lower than expected

Tariffs generally raise prices for consumers. A 20% broad tariff would cost the average consumer $3,400 to $4,200 a year, according to the Yale Budget Lab.

Consumers would naturally buy fewer imported goods if they cost more, economists said. Lower demand means fewer imports and less tariff revenue from those imports, they said.

Tariffs are also expected to trigger “reduced economic activity,” said Robert McClelland, senior fellow at the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center.

More from Personal Finance:
Economists say ‘value-added taxes’ aren’t a trade barrier
Tariffs are ‘lose-lose’ for U.S. jobs and industry
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For example, U.S. companies that don’t pass tariff costs on to consumers via higher prices would likely see profits suffer (and their income taxes fall), economists said. Consumers might pull back on spending, further denting company profits and tax revenues, economists said. Companies that take a financial hit might lay off workers, they said.

Foreign nations are also expected to retaliate with their own tariffs on U.S. products, which would hurt companies that export products abroad. Other nations may experience an economic downturn, further reducing demand for U.S. products.

Tariffs could be a major rewiring of the domestic and global economy, says Mohamed El-Erian

“If you get a 20% tariff rate, you’re going to get a rip-roaring recession, and that will undermine your fiscal situation,” Zandi said.

There’s also likely to be a certain level of non-compliance with tariff policy, and carve-outs for certain countries, industries or products, economists said. For instance, when the White House levied tariffs on China in February, it indefinitely exempted “de minimis” imports valued at $800 or less.

The Trump administration might also funnel some tariff revenue to paying certain parties aggrieved by a trade war, economists said.

President Trump did that in his first term: The government sent $61 billion in “relief” payments to American farmers who faced retaliatory tariffs, which was nearly all (92%) of the tariff revenue on Chinese goods from 2018 to 2020, according to the Council on Foreign Relations.

The tariffs will also likely have a short life span, diluting their potential revenue impact, economists said. They’re being issued by executive order and could be undone easily, whether by President Trump or a future president, they said.

“There’s zero probability these tariffs will last for 10 years,” Zandi said. “If they last until next year I’d be very surprised.”

Why this matters

The Trump administration has signaled that tariffs “will be one of the top-tier ways they’ll try to offset the cost” of passing a package of tax cuts, Tedeschi said.

Extending a 2017 tax cut law signed by President Trump would cost $4.5 trillion over a decade, according to the Tax Foundation. Trump has also called for other tax breaks like no taxes on tips, overtime pay or Social Security benefits, and a tax deduction for auto loan interest for American made cars.

If tariffs don’t cover the full cost of such a package, then Republican lawmakers would have to find cuts elsewhere or increase the nation’s debt, economists said.

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Investors hope April 2 could bring some tariff clarity and relief. That may not happen

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Cliff Asness’s AQR multi-strategy hedge fund returns 9% in the first quarter during tough conditions

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Cliff Asness.

Chris Goodney | Bloomberg | Getty Images

AQR Capital Management’s multistrategy hedge fund beat the market with a 9% rally in the first quarter as Wall Street grappled with extreme volatility amid President Donald Trump’s uncertain tariff policy.

The Apex strategy from Cliff Asness’ firm, which combines stocks, macro and arbitrage trades and has $3 billion in assets under management, gained 3.4% in March, boosting its first-quarter performance, according to a person familiar with AQR’s returns who asked to be anonymous as the information is private.

AQR’s Delphi Long-Short Equity Strategy gained 9.7% in the first quarter, while its alternative trend-following offering Helix returned 3%, the person said.

AQR, whose assets under management reached $128 billion at the end of March, declined to comment.

The stock market just wrapped up a tumultuous quarter as Trump’s aggressive tariffs raised concerns about an severe economic slowdown and a re-acceleration of inflation. The S&P 500 dipped into correction territory in March after hitting a record in February.

For the quarter, the equity benchmark was down 4.6%, snapping a five-quarter win streak. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite lost 10.4% in the quarter, which would mark its biggest quarterly pullback since a 22.4% plunge in the second quarter of 2022.

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