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IMF hikes UK growth outlook amid lower inflation and interest rates

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General view of the City of London skyline, the capital’s financial district, in October.

Sopa Images | Lightrocket | Getty Images

LONDON — The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday raised its 2024 growth outlook for the United Kingdom, saying declines in interest rates and inflation would boost domestic demand.

The IMF now sees 1.1% growth for the U.K. economy this year, up from a July forecast of 0.7%. The agency also reiterated its forecast for a 1.5% expansion in 2025.

Inflation in the U.K. came in at 1.7% in September, a decline from 11.1% in October 2022. Lower rates of services inflation and wage growth have led economists over the last week to forecast a faster pace of interest rate cuts from the Bank of England, forecasting the central bank will take its key rate from 5.25% at the start of the year to 4.5% by the end of 2024.

Economic growth has been tepid so far this year, coming in at 0.2% in August after flatlining in June and July.

China must reform pensions and support property sector if consumer confidence is to return, says IMF MD

The IMF’s brighter outlook comes as the country braces for the center-left Labour Party to this month deliver its first budget in 14 years. Prime Minister Keir Starmer has warned that the package will contain “tough” decisions in order to fill what he claims is a looming £22 billion ($28.5 billion) financing shortfall — a figure disputed by his predecessors in the Conservative Party — after Labour committed to slash net borrowing.

While Starmer has ruled out increases to some major taxes, including on income and corporations, a broader package of tax hikes is anticipated. Uncertainty over the budget weighed on consumer confidence readings in August, though the S&P Global UK Consumer Sentiment Index released Monday showed households were slightly more optimistic about their finances and more willing to make large purchases.

“It’s welcome that the IMF have upgraded our growth forecast for this year, but I know there is more work to do,” Finance Minister Rachel Reeves, who took office in July, said Tuesday. Labour has previously pledged to secure the highest sustained growth in the G7 group of nations and make higher growth the core focus of its policymaking.

On Tuesday, the IMF also trimmed its 2024 growth outlook for the euro zone to 0.8% from 0.9% previously, forecasting stagnation in the bloc’s biggest economy Germany. Analysts flag a multitude of challenges facing the German economy, including intense competition for the country’s autos and wider manufacturing products, along with higher energy prices and macro uncertainty weighing on its industrial production.

Among other so-called “advanced economies,” the IMF forecasts economic expansion of 2.8% in the U.S., 1.3% in Canada and just 0.3% in Japan, which has suffered from weak demand this year amid high inflation.

Economics

Donald Trump and Tulsi Gabbard are coming for the spooks

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OF DONALD TRUMP’s nominees to high office, few are more suspicious of the government they are pegged to join than Tulsi Gabbard. She warns of a “slow-rolling coup” by “the entire permanent Washington machine”, as she describes it in “For Love of Country”, a campaign book published in April. Her list of putschists is long, catholic and spook-heavy: “the Democratic National Committee, propaganda media, Big Tech, the FBI, the CIA, and a whole network of rogue intelligence and law enforcement agents working at the highest levels of our government”. Yet she may soon oversee some of that machinery.

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Checks and Balance newsletter: Trump is embracing a shift in Republican priorities

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Will he follow through on his policy commitments?

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Economics

Donald Trump chooses hedge fund executive Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary

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Scott Bessent, founder and chief executive officer of Key Square Group LP, during an interview in Washington, DC, US, on Friday, June 7, 2024.

Stefani Reynolds | Bloomberg | Getty Images

President-elect Donald Trump has signaled his intention to nominate hedge fund executive Scott Bessent as his Treasury secretary, sources tell CNBC and NBC News.

The founder of Key Square Group had been considered a strong favorite for the position along with a few other close contenders.

As head of Treasury, Bessent, 62, will be both the U.S. fiscal watchdog as well as a key official to help Trump enact his ambitious economic agenda. Both a Wall Street heavyweight and advocate for many of the incoming president’s economic goals, he would come to office at a critical time as the U.S. wrestles with a growing economy alongside long-festering debt and deficit issues.

Like Trump, Bessent favors gradual tariffs and deregulation to push American business and control inflation. In addition, Bessent has advocated for a revival in manufacturing as well as energy independence.

The prospective nominee also has deep philanthropic ties through Yale University along with Rockefeller University and Classical American homes Preservation Trust.

One obstacle Bessent will have to overcome is his past affiliation with billionaire investor and global gadfly George Soros. Bessent served as chief investment officer for Soros’ fund.

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