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Checks and Balance: The 50-year plan

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This is the introduction to Checks and Balance, a weekly, subscriber-only newsletter bringing exclusive insight from our correspondents in America.

James Bennet, our Lexington columnist, considers a possible Democratic election defeat.

If you’re feeling a bit stressed about politics these days, I recommend watching this clip of Barack Obama rapping out some lyrics from “Lose Yourself” by Eminem during a rally in Detroit on Tuesday. It’s a reminder that even in this most fevered stage of the election cycle, people are having fun out on the campaign trail, connecting through music and laughter and not just the grim warnings that dominate news reports. 

I guess every presidential campaign I’ve covered has had an apocalyptic phase as election day approached, with candidates declaring it the most important contest of anyone’s lifetime. And maybe this time that is so. Certainly the warnings are the most dire. Vice-president Kamala Harris is calling Donald Trump a “fascist”—citing the conclusion of people who served him in office—and the stakes to some supporters of Mr Trump are even higher. As my colleague Kennett Werner reported this week, to them this struggle is not about democracy and the rule of law versus authoritarianism but about good versus evil, a word Mr Trump himself has taken to using to describe his opponents. For some evangelicals, Mr Trump, chosen by God, represents the last chance to rid America of demonic influence. 

Even for less eschatologically minded Republicans, Mr Trump’s I-alone-can-fix-it message means the possibility he might lose is devastating. Ms Harris makes no such vaulting claim for herself, to be not just this campaign’s best candidate but the last hope for the nation. In turning out voters, this extreme claim may help Mr Trump, so from his perspective it makes a lot of sense. As Eminem puts it in “Lose Yourself”, “You only get one shot. Do not miss your chance to blow.”

Yet as a party the Republicans will have future chances to blow, and whether Mr Trump’s approach will serve them well over the longer term is a different question. As I wrote this week in Lexington, I was struck by the exhilaration of the thousands who thronged to see Ms Harris when I was down in Atlanta on Saturday. Among the people I bumped into in the crowd was Mario Van Peebles, a director and actor whom I recognised from another Generation X cultural touchstone, his film “New Jack City”. I asked him the question most on my mind: what would happen to all that excitement if Ms Harris lost? 

As the DJ up on stage blasted “September” by Earth, Wind & Fire, Mr Van Peebles smiled and nodded, as though he expected the question. What mattered, he said, was to do something you believed in and loved, which was why he was there. “The win is an extra.” He went on, “Sometimes America moves two steps forward, one step back…In the ten-year plan, you can get disheartened. But over the 50-year plan, black folks got the right to vote. Over the 50-year plan, women got the right to vote. Over the 50-year plan, you could love who you want to love.” He gestured at some little girls dancing in the crowd and noted they were being introduced to a big idea of what was possible. “The optics are winning,” he said.

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Economics

Checks and Balance newsletter: Trump is embracing a shift in Republican priorities

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Will he follow through on his policy commitments?

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Economics

Donald Trump chooses hedge fund executive Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary

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Scott Bessent, founder and chief executive officer of Key Square Group LP, during an interview in Washington, DC, US, on Friday, June 7, 2024.

Stefani Reynolds | Bloomberg | Getty Images

President-elect Donald Trump has signaled his intention to nominate hedge fund executive Scott Bessent as his Treasury secretary, sources tell CNBC and NBC News.

The founder of Key Square Group had been considered a strong favorite for the position along with a few other close contenders.

As head of Treasury, Bessent, 62, will be both the U.S. fiscal watchdog as well as a key official to help Trump enact his ambitious economic agenda. Both a Wall Street heavyweight and advocate for many of the incoming president’s economic goals, he would come to office at a critical time as the U.S. wrestles with a growing economy alongside long-festering debt and deficit issues.

Like Trump, Bessent favors gradual tariffs and deregulation to push American business and control inflation. In addition, Bessent has advocated for a revival in manufacturing as well as energy independence.

The prospective nominee also has deep philanthropic ties through Yale University along with Rockefeller University and Classical American homes Preservation Trust.

One obstacle Bessent will have to overcome is his past affiliation with billionaire investor and global gadfly George Soros. Bessent served as chief investment officer for Soros’ fund.

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Economics

Trump might name Kevin Warsh as Treasury chief then Fed chair later, report says

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Kevin Warsh

Jin Lee | Bloomberg | Getty Images

President-elect Donald Trump is considering naming Kevin Warsh as Treasury secretary then ultimately sending him off to serve as Federal Reserve chair, according to a Wall Street Journal report.

A former Fed governor himself, Warsh would move over to the central bank after current Chair Jerome Powell’s term expires in 2026, according to the Journal, which cited sources familiar with Trump’s thinking.

The speculation comes with Treasury being the last major Cabinet position for which Trump has yet to state his intention.

Various reports have put Warsh as one of the finalists with Apollo Global Management CEO Marc Rowan and hedge fund manager Scott Bessent. Among the potential scenarios would be one where Bessent would lead the National Economic Council initially then go over to Treasury after Warsh takes over at the Fed.

However, Trump is known for the propensity to change his mind, and the report noted that nothing has been finalized.

Read the full Wall Street Journal story here.

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