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How China’s consumers are spending this Singles Day shopping festival

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Employees package and sort express parcels at an e-commerce company on Nov. 1, 2024, around the Double 11 Shopping Festival in Lianyungang, Jiangsu Province of China.

Vcg | Visual China Group | Getty Images

BEIJING — Early indicators of China’s biggest shopping event of the year reveal a pickup in select categories amid expectations of relatively modest growth in overall sales.

China’s version of Black Friday kicked off on Oct. 14, more than a week earlier than last year, as e-commerce players Alibaba and JD.com grapple with tepid consumer spending. The shopping festival, also known as Singles Day or 11.11, has in recent years evolved into a weeks-long promotional period since Alibaba launched it in 2008 on Nov. 11.

“What we’re seeing so far, it’s going to be slightly better in terms of GMV growth over last year,” Jacob Cooke, co-founder and CEO of WPIC Marketing + Technologies, told CNBC Thursday. The company helps foreign brands — such as Vitamix and IS Clinical — sell online in China and other parts of Asia.

GMV refers to gross merchandise value, an industry measure of sales over time. China’s e-commerce giants stopped reporting Singles Day GMV in 2022 during the pandemic. In 2021, Alibaba said its GMV rose by 8% while JD’s climbed by 28%, totaling more than $139 billion.

Singles Day GMV this year as of Oct. 30 was 845 billion yuan ($119.1 billion), according to research firm Syntun. It was not clear how the GMV figures compared to 2023 given the extended promotional period this year.

Around 80%, or roughly $95 billion, came from Alibaba, JD.com and PDD, while nearly 20% was generated via livestreaming sales platforms Kuaishou and ByteDance’s Douyin, the Syntun report showed.

China may have big opportunity to change household & consumer sentiment: Longview's Dewardric McNeal

While Singles Day GMV no longer grows by 30%, Cooke said he expects around 15% growth this year, better than the 11% increase in 2023, when the festival lasted for 19 days, according to his company’s data.

“Things that are experiential-based are starting to do really well, less on the Louis Vuitton luxury and more on the lululemon is kind of what we’ve said about this for a while,” Cooke said. “It’s just that consumer habits have really changed.”

Subsidies boost appliances

Helping boost sales this Singles Day are China’s subsidies for trade-ins of home appliances, launched in late July. Chinese authorities since late September have started doubling down on stimulus efforts by cutting rates on existing mortgages and signaling further support.

“We believe [the] 11.11 festival this year will be a critical point and is poised to reflect on the recovery trajectory in 3Q24 and 4Q24,” analysts at UOB Kay Hian said in a report.

They predict 4% to 5% growth in Singles Day GMV, with sales in the home appliance category supported by the trade-in program.

Alibaba said government subsidies and platform benefits contributed to a more than seven-fold surge in presales of home appliances during the first hour on Oct. 14, compared with the first hour of presales last year.

JD.com said that between Oct. 14 and Oct. 31, transaction volume grew by double-digits versus the same period a year ago. The company claimed record sales in consumer electronics and home appliances, without disclosing figures.

“This year, it seems that the price war of e-commerce platforms has slowed down overall, returning to a certain degree of rationality after the intense price competition,” Dave Xie, partner at Oliver Wyman, said in a statement. He also noted Beijing’s stimulus announcements and a recovery in consumer sentiment.

“In the initial phase of Singles Day, categories such as home appliances and consumer electronics, outdoor gear, beauty and cosmetics, and pet supplies have all performed well,” Xie said.

‘Micro’ shopping trend

A consumer trend that’s emerged this year is in toys and collectibles, often from a game or popular animated series. The category is usually referred to as IP in China.

”A lot of international brands have been fighting for licenses to try to get in here and do this as well,” Cooke said.

There’s always “a micro trend in every year’s 11.11 and this really seems to be it this year,” he said. “Something that kind of came out of nowhere, into all of a sudden really, really big numbers.”

More than 100,000 products based on licenses for over 1,000 characters — such as the games Genshin Impact and Arknights — are being launched on Alibaba’s Tmall this Singles Day, according to Yuke Liang, a representative for the business’ designer and collectable toy category. Products include collectable cards, figurines and clothes.

The category also includes Lego and British toy company Jellycat, which launched a Valentine’s Day plush dog in China for Singles Day, Liang said. The 7,000 dogs, priced at around $50 each, sold out in seconds, she said.

Japanese manga Chiikawa opened a Tmall store in late September, and saw more than 100,000 shoppers simultaneously order a $9.72 limited edition plush, Liang said.

Liang said Taobao and Tmall started developing the IP category in 2017, and elevated it in 2021 to one of its few tier-one segments in terms of product promotion and business priority. She said most buyers are in their early thirties or younger, and prefer to spend on products perceived as bringing happiness or other emotional satisfaction.

Sentiment is ‘much calmer’

Despite such pockets of growth, China’s Singles Day remains more toned down than in prior years.

“Sentiment is quite different this year, much calmer,” wrote Ashley Dudarenok, founder of ChoZan, a China marketing consultancy. “Chinese consumers are not caught up in the ‘buy buy buy frenzy,’ they are hunting [for] more expensive products that they actually need vs just lower prices.”

She expects that at best, Singles Day this year may be “slightly better” and driven by different categories.

The shopping promotions officially wrap up on Nov. 11.

James Yang, head of Greater China retail at consultancy Bain & Company, said the firm has “muted expectations” for Singles Day this year, continuing the trend of the last two years.

JD is set to release quarterly results on Nov. 14, while Alibaba is scheduled to release earnings on Nov. 15.

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Why software stocks, 2026’s market dogs, have joined the rally

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ETF shelters from the Middle East War

Cybersecurity and enterprise software stocks have been market dogs in 2026, with fears that AI will wipe out a wide range of companies in the enterprise space dominating the narrative. But they snapped a brutal losing streak this past week, joining in the broader market rally that saw all losses from the U.S.-Iran war regained by the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500.

Cybersecurity has been “a victim of some of the AI-related headlines,” Christian Magoon, Amplify ETFs CEO, said on this week’s “ETF Edge.”

It wasn’t just niche cybersecurity names. Take Microsoft, for example, which was recently down close to 20% for the year. Its shares surged last week by 13%.

A big driver of the pummeling in software stocks was a rotation within tech by investors to AI infrastructure and semiconductors and some other names in large-cap tech, Magoon said, and since cybersecurity stocks and ETFs are heavily weighted towards software companies, they were left behind even as those businesses continue to grow on a fundamental basis.

But Wall Street now has become more bullish with the stocks at lower levels. Brent Thill, Jefferies tech analyst, said last week that the worst may be over for software stocks. “I think that this concept that software is dead, and then Anthropic and OpenAI are going to kill the entire industry, is just over-exaggerated,” he said on CNBC’s “Money Movers” on Wednesday.

Big Short” investor Michael Burry wrote in a Substack post on Wednesday that he is becoming bullish about software stocks after the recent selloff. “Software stocks remain interesting because of accelerated extreme declines last week arising from a reflexive positive feedback loop between falling software stocks and changes in the market for their bank debt,” he wrote.

The Global X Cybersecurity ETF (BUG), is down about 12% since the beginning of the year, with top holdings including Palo Alto Networks, Fortinet, Akamai Technologies and CrowdStrike. But BUG was up 12% last week. The First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR) is down 6% for the year, but up 9% in the past week.

Piper Sandler analyst Rob Owens reiterated an “overweight” rating on Palo Alto Networks which helped the stock pop 7% — it is now down roughly 6% on the year. Its peers saw similar moves, including CrowdStrike.

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Performance of Global X cybersecurity ETF versus S&P 500 over past one-year period.

Magoon said expectations may have become too high in cybersecurity, and with a crowding effect among investors, solid results were not enough to to push stocks higher. But the down-and-then-back-up 2026 for the sector is also a reminder that when stocks fall sharply in a short period of time, opportunity may knock.

“Once you’re down over 10% in some of these subsectors, you start to see the contrarians start to say, ‘well, maybe I’ll take a look at this,'” Magoon said.

He said AI does add both opportunity and uncertainty to the cybersecurity equation, increasing demand but also introducing new competition. But he added, “I think the dip is good to buy in an AI-driven world,” specifically because the risks to companies may lead to more M&A in cyber names that benefits the stocks.

For now, investors may look for opportunity on the margins rather than rush back into beaten-up tech names. “I think investors are still going to remain underweight software,” Thill said.

But Magoon advises investors to at least take the reminder to keep an eye on niches in the market during pronounced downturns. “The best-performing are often the least bought and do the best over the next 12 months versus late-in-the-game piling on,” he said.

While that may have been a mindset that worked against the last investors into cybersecurity and enterprise software in mid-2025 when the negative sentiment started building, at least for now, it’s started working for the stocks in the sector again.

Meanwhile, this year’s biggest winner is also a good example of what can be an extended trade in either a bullish or bearish direction. Last year, institutional ownership of energy was at multi-year lows, Magoon said, referencing Bank of America data. “Reverse sentiment can be a great indicator,” he said. 

But he cautioned that any selective buying of stocks that have dipped does have to contend with the risk that there is a potentially bigger drawdown in the market yet to come in 2026. That is because midterm election years historically have been marked by large drawdowns. “If you think it is bad right now, it could get a lot worse,” Magoon said. But he added that there’s a silver-lining in that data, too, for the patient investor. The market has posted very strong 12-month returns after midterm election drawdowns end. So, for investors with a longer-term time horizon and no need for short-term liquidity, Magoon said, “stick in there.” 

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Violent downturns could test new ETF strategies, warns MFS Investment

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ETF Stress Tests: How funds are showing resilience in the face of uncertainty

New innovation in the exchange-traded fund industry could come at a cost to investors during extreme conditions.

According to MFS Investment Management’s Jamie Harrison, ETFs involved in increasingly complex derivatives and less transparent markets may be in uncharted territory when it comes to violent downturns.

“Those would be something that you’d want to keep an eye on as volatility ramps up,” the firm’s head of ETF capital markets told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this week. “As innovation continues to increase at a rapid pace within the ETF wrapper, [it’s] definitely something that we advise our clients to be really front-footed about… Lack of transparency could absolutely be an issue if we’re going to start seeing some deep sell-offs.”

His firm has been around since 1924 and is known for inventing the open-end mutual fund. Last year, ETF.com named MFS Investment Management as the best new ETF issuer.

“It’s important to do due diligence on the portfolio,” he said. “Having a firm that has deep partnerships, deep bench of subject matter experts that plays with the A-team in terms of the Street and liquidity providers available [are] super important.”

Liquidity as the real issue?

Harrison suggested the real issue is liquidity, particularly during a steep sell-off.

“We’ve all seen the news and the headlines around potential private credit ETFs. That picture becomes much more murky,” he added. “It’s up to advisors, to investors [and] to clients to really dig in and look under the hood and engage with their issuers.”

He noted investors will have to ask some tough questions.

“What does this look like in a 20% drawdown? How does this liquidity facility work? Am I going to be able to get in? Am I going to be able to get out? And if I’m able to get out, am I able to get out at a price that’s tight to NAV [net asset value], and what’s the infrastructure at your shop in terms of managing that consideration for me,” said Harrison.

Amplify ETFs’ Christian Magoon is also concerned about these newer ETF strategies could weather a monster drawdown. He listed private credit as a red flag.

“If your ETF owns private credit, I think it’s worth taking a look at, kind of what the standards are around liquidity and how that ETF is trading, because that should be a bit of a mismatch between the trading pace of ETFs and the underlying asset,” the firm’s CEO said in the same interview.

Magoon also highlighted potential issues surrounding equity-linked notes. The notes provide fixed income security while offering potentially higher returns linked to stocks or equity indexes.

“Those could potentially be in stress due to redemptions and the underlying credit risk. That’s another kind of unique derivative,” Magoon said. “I would very closely look at any ETF that has equity-linked notes should we get into a major drawdown or there be a contagion in private credit or something related to the banking system.”

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Anthropic Mythos reveals ‘more vulnerabilities’ for cyberattacks

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Jamie Dimon, chief executive officer of JPMorgan Chase & Co., right, departs the US Capitol in Washington, DC, US, on Wednesday, Feb. 25, 2026.

Graeme Sloan | Bloomberg | Getty Images

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said Tuesday that while artificial intelligence tools could eventually help companies defend themselves from cyberattacks, they are first making them more vulnerable.

Dimon said that JPMorgan was testing Anthropic’s latest model — the Mythos preview announced by the AI firm last week — as part of its broader effort to reap the benefits of AI while protecting against bad actors wielding the same technology.

“AI’s made it worse, it’s made it harder,” Dimon told analysts on the bank’s earnings call Tuesday morning. “It does create additional vulnerabilities, and maybe down the road, better ways to strengthen yourself too.”

When asked by a reporter about Mythos, Dimon seemed to refer to Anthropic’s warning that the model had already found thousands of vulnerabilities in corporate software.

“I think you read exactly what is it,” Dimon said. “It shows a lot more vulnerabilities need to be fixed.”

The remarks reveal how artificial intelligence, a technology welcomed by corporations as a productivity boon, has also morphed into a serious threat by giving bad actors new ways to hack into technology systems. Last week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent summoned bank CEOs to a meeting to discuss the risks posed by Mythos.

JPMorgan, the world’s largest bank by market cap, has for years invested heavily to stay ahead of threats, with dedicated teams and constant coordination with government agencies, Dimon said.

“We spend a lot of money. We’ve got top experts. We’re in constant contact with the government,” he said. “It’s a full-time job, and we’re doing it all the time.”

‘Attack mode’

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