Employees package and sort express parcels at an e-commerce company on Nov. 1, 2024, around the Double 11 Shopping Festival in Lianyungang, Jiangsu Province of China.
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BEIJING — Early indicators of China’s biggest shopping event of the year reveal a pickup in select categories amid expectations of relatively modest growth in overall sales.
China’s version of Black Friday kicked off on Oct. 14, more than a week earlier than last year, as e-commerce players Alibaba and JD.com grapple with tepid consumer spending. The shopping festival, also known as Singles Day or 11.11, has in recent years evolved into a weeks-long promotional period since Alibaba launched it in 2008 on Nov. 11.
“What we’re seeing so far, it’s going to be slightly better in terms of GMV growth over last year,” Jacob Cooke, co-founder and CEO of WPIC Marketing + Technologies, told CNBCThursday. The company helps foreign brands — such as Vitamix and IS Clinical — sell online in China and other parts of Asia.
GMV refers to gross merchandise value, an industry measure of sales over time. China’s e-commerce giants stopped reporting Singles Day GMV in 2022 during the pandemic. In 2021, Alibaba said its GMV rose by 8% while JD’s climbed by 28%, totaling more than $139 billion.
Singles Day GMV this year as of Oct. 30 was 845 billion yuan ($119.1 billion), according to research firm Syntun. It was not clear how the GMV figures compared to 2023 given the extended promotional period this year.
Around 80%, or roughly $95 billion, came from Alibaba, JD.com and PDD, while nearly 20% was generated via livestreaming sales platforms Kuaishou and ByteDance’s Douyin, the Syntun report showed.
While Singles Day GMV no longer grows by 30%, Cooke said he expects around 15% growth this year, better than the 11% increase in 2023, when the festival lasted for 19 days, according to his company’s data.
“Things that are experiential-based are starting to do really well, less on the Louis Vuitton luxury and more on the lululemon is kind of what we’ve said about this for a while,” Cooke said. “It’s just that consumer habits have really changed.”
Subsidies boost appliances
Helping boost sales this Singles Day are China’s subsidies for trade-ins of home appliances, launched in late July. Chinese authorities since late September have started doubling down on stimulus efforts by cutting rates on existing mortgages and signaling further support.
“We believe [the] 11.11 festival this year will be a critical point and is poised to reflect on the recovery trajectory in 3Q24 and 4Q24,” analysts at UOB Kay Hian said in a report.
They predict 4% to 5% growth in Singles Day GMV, with sales in the home appliance category supported by the trade-in program.
Alibaba said government subsidies and platform benefits contributed to a more than seven-fold surge in presales of home appliances during the first hour on Oct. 14, compared with the first hour of presales last year.
JD.com said that between Oct. 14 and Oct. 31, transaction volume grew by double-digits versus the same period a year ago. The company claimed record sales in consumer electronics and home appliances, without disclosing figures.
“This year, it seems that the price war of e-commerce platforms has slowed down overall, returning to a certain degree of rationality after the intense price competition,” Dave Xie, partner at Oliver Wyman, said in a statement. He also noted Beijing’s stimulus announcements and a recovery in consumer sentiment.
“In the initial phase of Singles Day, categories such as home appliances and consumer electronics, outdoor gear, beauty and cosmetics, and pet supplies have all performed well,” Xie said.
‘Micro’ shopping trend
A consumer trend that’s emerged this year is in toys and collectibles, often from a game or popular animated series. The category is usually referred to as IP in China.
”A lot of international brands have been fighting for licenses to try to get in here and do this as well,” Cooke said.
There’s always “a micro trend in every year’s 11.11 and this really seems to be it this year,” he said. “Something that kind of came out of nowhere, into all of a sudden really, really big numbers.”
More than 100,000 products based on licenses for over 1,000 characters — such as the games Genshin Impact and Arknights — are being launched on Alibaba’s Tmall this Singles Day, according to Yuke Liang, a representative for the business’ designer and collectable toy category. Products include collectable cards, figurines and clothes.
The category also includes Lego and British toy company Jellycat, which launched a Valentine’s Day plush dog in China for Singles Day, Liang said. The 7,000 dogs, priced at around $50 each, sold out in seconds, she said.
Japanese manga Chiikawa opened a Tmall store in late September, and saw more than 100,000 shoppers simultaneously order a $9.72limited edition plush, Liang said.
Liang said Taobao and Tmall started developing the IP category in 2017, and elevated it in 2021 to one of its few tier-one segments in terms of product promotion and business priority. She said most buyers are in their early thirties or younger, and prefer to spend on products perceived as bringing happiness or other emotional satisfaction.
Sentiment is ‘much calmer’
Despite such pockets of growth, China’s Singles Day remains more toned down than in prior years.
“Sentiment is quite different this year, much calmer,” wrote Ashley Dudarenok, founder of ChoZan, a China marketing consultancy. “Chinese consumers are not caught up in the ‘buy buy buy frenzy,’ they are hunting [for] more expensive products that they actually need vs just lower prices.”
She expects that at best, Singles Day this year may be “slightly better” and driven by different categories.
The shopping promotions officially wrap up on Nov. 11.
James Yang, head of Greater China retail at consultancy Bain & Company, said the firm has “muted expectations” for Singles Day this year, continuing the trend of the last two years.
JD is set to release quarterly results on Nov. 14, while Alibaba is scheduled to release earnings on Nov. 15.
Smart robotic arms work on the production line at the production workshop of Changqing Auto Parts Co., LTD., located in Anqing Economic Development Zone, Anhui Province, China, on March 13, 2025. (Photo by Costfoto/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
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BEIJING — China missed several key targets from its 10-year plan to become self-sufficient in technology, while fostering unhealthy industrial competition which worsened global trade tensions, the European Chamber of Commerce in China said in a report this week.
When Beijing released its “Made in China 2025” plan in 2015, it was met with significant international criticism for promoting Chinese business at the expense of their foreign counterparts. The country subsequently downplayed the initiative, but has doubled-down on domestic tech development given U.S. restrictionsin the last several years.
Since releasing the plan,China has exceeded its targets on achieving domestic dominance in autos, but the country has not yet reached its targets in aerospace, high-end robots and the growth rate of manufacturing value-added, the business chamber said, citing its research and discussions with members. Out of ten strategic sectors identified in the report, China only attained technological dominance in shipbuilding, high-speed rail and electric cars.
China’s targets are generally seen as a direction rather than an actual figure to be achieved by a specific date. The Made In China 2025 plan outlines the first ten years of what the country called a ‘multi-decade strategy’ to become a global manufacturing powerhouse.
The chamber pointed out that China’s self-developed airplane, the C919, still relies heavily on U.S. and European parts and though industrial automation levels have “increased substantially,” it is primarily due to foreign technology. In addition, the growth rate of manufacturing value add reached 6.1% in 2024, falling from the 7% rate in 2015 and just over halfway toward reaching the target of 11%.
“Everyone should consider themselves lucky that China missed its manufacturing growth target,” Jens Eskelund, president of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, told reporters Tuesday, since the reverse would have exacerbated pressure on global competitors. “They didn’t fulfill their own target, but I actually think they did astoundingly well.”
Even at that slower pace, China has transformed itself over the last decade to drive 29% of global manufacturing value add — almost the same as the U.S. and Europe combined, Eskelund said. “Before 2015, in many, many categoriesChina was not a direct competitor of Europe and the United States.”
The U.S. in recent years has sought to restrict China’s access to high-end tech, and encourage advanced manufacturing companies to build factories in America.
The U.S. restrictions have “pushed us to make things that previously we would not have thought we had to buy,” said Lionel M. Ni, founding president of the Guangzhou campus of the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. That’s according to a CNBC translation of his Mandarin-language remarks to reporters on Wednesday.
Ni said the products requiring home-grown development efforts included chips and equipment, and if substitutes for restricted items weren’t immediately available, the university would buy the second-best version available.
In addition to thematic plans, China issues national development priorities every five years. The current 14th five-year plan emphasizes support for the digital economy and wraps up in December. The subsequent 15th five-year plan is scheduled to be released next year.
China catching up
It remains unclear to what extent China can become completely self-sufficient in key technological systems in the near term. But local companies have made rapid strides.
“Western chip export controls have had some success in that they briefly set back China’s developmental efforts in semiconductors, albeit at some cost to the United States and allied firms,” analysts at the Washington, D.C.,-based think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies, said in a report this week. However, they noted that China has only doubled down, “potentially destabilizing the U.S. semiconductor ecosystem.”
For example, the thinktank pointed out, Huawei’s current generation smartphone, the Pura 70 series, incorporates 33 China-sourced components and only 5 sourced from outside of China.
Huawei reported a 22% surge in revenue in 2024 — the fastest growth since 2016 — buoyed by a recovery in its consumer products business.The company spent 20.8% of its revenue on research and development last year, well above its annual goal of more than 10%.
Overall, China manufacturers reached the nationwide 1.68% target for spending on research and development as a percentage of operating revenue, the EU Chamber report said.
“‘Europe needs to take a hard look at itself,” Eskelund said, referring to Huawei’s high R&D spend. “Are European companies doing what is needed to remain at the cutting edge of technology?”
However, high spending doesn’t necessarily mean efficiency.
The electric car race in particular has prompted a price war, with most automakers running losses in their attempt to undercut competitors. The phenomenon is often called “neijuan” or “involution” in China.
“We also need to realize [China’s] success has not come without problems,” Eskelund said. “We are seeing across a great many industries it has not translated into healthy business.”
He added that the attempt to fulfill “Made in China 2025” targets contributed to involution, and pointed out that China’s efforts to move up the manufacturing value chain from Christmas ornaments to high-end equipment have also increased global worries about security risks.
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Such fierce competition compounds the impact of already slowing economic growth. Out of 2,825 mainland China-listed companies, 20% reported a loss for the first time in 2024, according to a CNBC analysis of Wind Information data as of Thursday. Including companies that reported yet another year of losses, the share of companies that lost money last year rose to nearly 48%, the analysis showed.
China in March emphasized that boosting consumption is its priority for the year, after previously focusing on manufacturing. Retail sales growth have lagged behind industrial production on a year-to-date basis since the beginning of 2024, according to official data accessed via Wind Information.
Policymakers are also looking for ways to ensure “a better match between manufacturing output and what the domestic market can absorb,” Eskelund said, adding that efforts to boost consumption don’t matter much if manufacturing output grows even faster.
But when asked about policies that could address manufacturing overcapacity, he said, “We are also eagerly waiting in anticipation.”
Check out the companies making headlines before the bell: Hertz — Shares of the rental car company soared nearly 16%, extending the gains seen in the previous session. On Wednesday, the stock skyrocketed more than 56% after Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square disclosed that it had taken a sizable stake in the name. UnitedHealth — The stock plunged more than 19% after the insurer’s first-quarter results missed analysts’ estimates. UnitedHealth reported adjusted earnings of $7.20 per share on revenue of $109.58 billion, below the $7.29 in earnings per share and $111.60 billion that analysts surveyed by LSEG were looking for. The company also slashed its full-year guidance . Eli Lilly — The pharmaceutical stock surged 11% after phase-three trial results for a pill to treat weight loss and diabetes showed positive results. Taiwan Semiconductor — U.S. shares jumped more than 3% after the chipmaker’s results for the first quarter topped Wall Street’s expectations. The company also maintained its 2025 revenue forecast, noting that it has not yet seen any changes in customer behavior despite there being “uncertainties and risks from the potential impact of tariff policies.” D.R. Horton — The homebuilding stock fell more than 3% on the heels of the company posting weaker-than-expected second-quarter results. D.R. Horton earned $2.58 per share, while analysts had expected earnings of $2.63 per share, according to LSEG. Revenue of $7.73 billion also missed the consensus estimate of $8.03 billion. Alcoa — Shares dropped more than 2% after the company’s revenue of $3.37 billion for the first quarter missed expectations, with analysts calling for $3.53 billion, per LSEG. Earnings, however, came in better than expected. — CNBC’s Jesse Pound contributed reporting.
Check out the companies making headlines in midday trading: Alphabet — Shares of the megacap technology name pulled back 1.2% after a federal judge ruled that Google has illegally monopolized online advertising technology , namely the markets for publisher ad servers and ad exchanges. Hertz — The rental car company surged 50% to a 52-week high, following a 56% rally in the previous session, after Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square took a sizable stake . A regulatory filing revealed Pershing Square had built a 4.1% position as of the end of 2024. Pershing has significantly increased the position — to 19.8% — through shares and swaps, becoming Hertz’s second-largest shareholder, CNBC reported. Nvidia , Advanced Micro Devices — Shares of Nvidia dipped nearly 3% and AMD declined 1%, continuing their declines from the previous session when the chipmakers announced additional charges tied to China exports due to President Donald Trump’s tariff plans. Global Payments , Fidelity National Information Services — Global Payments announced it is acquiring Worldpay for $24.25 billion from Fidelity National Information Services and a private equity firm, and divesting its Issuer Solutions business. Shares of Global Payments fell 16%, while Fidelity National Information Services jumped 8.6%. Taiwan Semiconductor — U.S. shares jumped more than 1% after the chipmaker’s results for the first quarter topped Wall Street’s expectations. The company also maintained its 2025 revenue forecast, noting that it has not yet seen any changes in customer behavior despite there being “uncertainties and risks from the potential impact of tariff policies.” UnitedHealth — Shares of the insurer plummeted about 22% on the back of disappointing first-quarter results. UnitedHealth reported adjusted earnings of $7.20 per share on revenue of $109.58 billion, falling short of the $7.29 in earnings per share and $111.60 billion that analysts surveyed by LSEG called for. The company also slashed its full-year guidance . Eli Lilly — The pharmaceutical stock jumped 16% after Eli Lilly said its daily obesity pill showed positive results in its late-stage trials. Weight loss data, along with rates of side effects and treatment discontinuations, from the experimental pill — called orforglipron — came out in line with what some Wall Street analysts were expecting. The pill fell short of some analysts’ estimates for a key diabetes metric. Alcoa — The stock shed nearly 5% after Alcoa, one of the world’s largest aluminum producers, reported first-quarter revenue of $3.37 billion, which fell short of the forecast $3.53 billion from analysts polled by LSEG. Alcoa’s earnings came out better than expected. D.R. Horton — The homebuilding stock gained 3% despite posting weaker-than-expected second-quarter results. D.R. Horton reported earnings of $2.58 per share, while analysts had expected earnings of $2.63 per share, according to LSEG. The company’s revenue of $7.73 billion came out below the consensus $8.03 billion estimate. — CNBC’s Sean Conlon and Yun Li contributed reporting.