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Winning North Carolina, Donald Trump seizes the early advantage

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DONALD TRUMP won the swing state of North Carolina as he took an early advantage in his race for the White House against Kamala Harris. The vice-president’s path to victory narrowed as early results showed her underperforming Joe Biden’s showing of four years ago. At 11pm Eastern time, early vote counts in America’s presidential race showed an early advantage in the electoral college for Mr Trump. There were warning signs for the Harris campaign as the first results poured in.

Several hours after the first polls closed, the other six of the seven swing states seen as vital to the two candidates’ chances for winning the electoral college—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin—were too close to call. Yet Mr Trump enjoyed a lead of three percentage points in Georgia, with 93% of the state’s vote counted. In North Carolina, Mr Trump’s lead was similar with just over 88% of the vote counted.

If Mr Trump’s lead holds up there, the pathway to an electoral-college victory for Ms Harris would narrow considerably, requiring her to sweep the “blue wall” states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where the vote count was proceeding more slowly.

Outside the key battlegrounds, the early picture was no more encouraging for the Harris campaign. In Virginia, which Mr Biden won comfortably in 2020, Ms Harris led narrowly with 82% of votes counted. She seemed likely to win Virginia eventually but was lagging behind Mr Biden’s performance in suburban counties such as Loudoun, outside Washington, DC. There, similarly to other suburban jurisdictions in Virginia, Ms Harris’s share of a near-complete vote trailed Mr Biden’s performance four years ago by more than six percentage points. That is a concerning trend if it extends to Pennsylvania and Michigan, where suburban voters are crucial to Ms Harris’s prospects.

In Florida, a former battleground that Mr Biden lost by just over three percentage points last time, Ms Harris was doing even worse, underperforming Mr Biden’s margin by ten percentage points with almost all of the state vote counted. Across all early reporting states, Ms Harris’s performance in counties posting near-complete votes to Mr Biden’s numbers in 2020 showed the vice-president underperforming.

Ms Harris and her allies will have to hope that the picture unfolds differently in Pennsylvania, the most important of the three blue-wall states, which always looked like a crucial state for both her and Mr Trump. Here there were at least a few encouraging signs. With just over a third of the expected vote posted in Montgomery County, a populous suburb of Philadelphia that leans Democratic, Ms Harris led with 68% of the vote, more than five percentage points better than Mr Biden’s performance four years ago. That is the sort of result she will probably need in all of Philadelphia’s blue-tinted-collar counties if she is to hold off Mr Trump’s strength in less populated rural areas.

Michigan’s vote was too incomplete to judge even several hours after its polls closed, and Wisconsin, which Mr Biden won by just 20,000 votes four years ago, Mr Trump led narrowly with 61% of the vote counted. A similar early picture prevailed in Arizona, a state where pre-election polls had shown Mr Trump held his most significant advantage.

Because the trio of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin remained in play at 11pm EST—and no other state pegged for Ms Harris had fallen to Mr Trump—the election remained in the balance. What seemed clear is that if Ms Harris were to defy the early run of results and squeeze out a victory, it would emerge from the key Rust Belt states and would probably be as close as the razor-thin margins Mr Biden won there in 2020.

Economics

The euro zone is ready for a new member: Bulgaria

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A worker counts Bulgarian Lev banknotes at a store in Sofia, Bulgaria, on Friday, March 29, 2024.

Oliver Bunic/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Bulgaria on Wednesday secured the green light to join the euro zone, meaning the bloc could soon grow from 20 to 21 members.

The European Commission and European Central Bank both assessed that the country met the requirements to adopt the single currency starting next year.

“This positive assessment of convergence paves the way for Bulgaria to introduce the euro as of 1 January 2026 and become the 21st EU Member State to join the euro area,” Philip Lane, member of the ECB Executive Board, said in a press release.

The European Commission described the assessment as “a critical and historic step on Bulgaria’s journey towards euro adoption” in a statement.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen congratulated the country, saying the decision “will mean more investment and trade with euro area partners, and more stability and prosperity for the Bulgarian people.”

“Bulgaria will also take its rightful place in shaping euro area decisions,” she added in a social media post.

This marks a shift from last year’s reports, which concluded that Sofia did not meet the so-called convergence criteria to adopt the currency on the grounds that the country’s inflation rate was too high.

One of the obstacles to cross was inflation. Bulgaria’s harmonized consumer price index — which is comparable across European countries — came in at 2.8% in April according to statistics agency Eurostat.

Price stability is just one of the requirements a country needs to fulfil in order to join the euro zone, and thereby the European Central Bank. Others include limitations on the size of a nation’s government deficit and debt ratio, its average nominal long-term interest rate and its exchange rate stability.

There is also a legal requirement that covers central bank independence.

Bulgaria joined the European Union in 2007 and committed at the time to also join the euro zone and relinquish the Bulgarian lev as its official currency. Around 341 million people use the euro across the current 20 euro zone countries, according to the European Union. The ECB says over 29 billion euro bank notes with a value of more than 1.5 trillion euros ($1.7 trillion) are in circulation.

One euro is equivalent to 1.96 lev, a rate set when Bulgaria became part of the board which anchors the currencies.

There are mixed attitudes about joining the euro within Bulgaria. A survey published last year by the EU suggested 49% of the public was in favor of the becoming part of the euro bloc. Political opinion is also split, with several nationalist parties and the country’s president advocating against it, while Prime Minister Rosen Zhelyazkov is supportive.

The European Commission said that alongside its assessment, it had also adopted proposals for a council decision and council regulation on Bulgaria’s euro adoption at the start of next year. The council of the EU has the final say on countries joining the euro zone.

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Economics

ADP jobs report May 2025:

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A sign promoting the benefits of working for McDonald’s hangs in the window of a restaurant on May 13, 2025 in Chicago, Illinois.

Scott Olson | Getty Images

Private sector job creation slowed to a near-standstill in May, hitting its lowest level in more than two years as signs emerged of a weakening labor market, payrolls processing firm ADP reported Wednesday.

Payrolls increased just 37,000 for the month, below the downwardly revised 60,000 in April and the Dow Jones forecast for 110,000. It was the lowest monthly job total from the ADP count since March 2023.

The report comes two days before the more closely watched nonfarm payrolls count from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which is expected to show a gain of 125,000 and the unemployment rate steady at 4.2%.

While the two reports often differ, occasionally by large margins, the ADP count provides another snapshot of the jobs picture at a time when questions are being raised over broader economic conditions.

“After a strong start to the year, hiring is losing momentum,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist for ADP.

Goods-producing industries lost a net 2,000 positions for the month, with natural resources and mining off 5,000 and manufacturing down 3,000, offset by a gain of 6,000 in construction.

On the services side, leisure and hospitality (38,000) and financial activities (20,000) provided some signs of strength. However, declines of 17,000 in professional and business services, 13,000 in education and health services and 4,000 in trade, transportation and utilities weighed on the total.

Companies employing fewer than 50 workers saw a loss of 13,000 while those with 500 or more employees reported a drop of 3,000. Mid-size firms gained 49,000.

Regarding wages, annual pay grew at a 4.5% rate for those remaining in their positions and 7% for job changers, both little changed from April and still “robust” levels, Richardson said.

Economic data has provided a mixed bag of late for the labor market. The BLS reported Tuesday that job openings rose more than expected in April, though other indicators, such as surveys from employment site Indeed and the National Federation of Independent Business, show weaker levels of openings and hiring intentions.

“The market remains distressingly gridlocked, with limited hiring and low quits, and the market can’t keep steadily cooling off forever before it just turns cold,” Indeed economist Allison Shrivastava said after Tuesday’s job openings report.

Federal Reserve officials have been generally optimistic about economic conditions, though in recent days they have expressed concern about the potential impact from President Donald Trump’s tariffs on both inflation and employment.

“I see the U.S. economy as still being in a solid position, but heightened uncertainty poses risks to both price stability and unemployment,” Fed Governor Lisa Cook said Tuesday.

Fed officials are expected to stay on hold regarding interest rates when they meet in two weeks.

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Economics

Job openings showed surprising increase to 7.4 million in April

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JOLTS beats estimates, posts best number since February

Employers increased job openings more than expected in April while hiring and layoffs also both rose, according to a report Tuesday that showed a relatively steady labor market.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed available jobs totaled nearly 7.4 million, an increase of 191,000 from March and higher than the 7.1 million consensus forecast by economists surveyed by FactSet. On an annual basis, the level was off 228,000, or about 3%.

The ratio of available jobs to unemployed workers was down close to 1.03 to 1 for the month, close to the March level.

Hiring also increased for the month, rising by 169,000 to 5.6 million, while layoffs fell by 196,000 to 1.79 million.

Quits, an indicator of worker confidence in their ability to find another job, edged lower, falling by 150,000 to 3.2 million.

“The labor market is returning to more normal levels despite the uncertainty within the macro outlook,” wrote Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Research. “Underlying patterns in hirings and firings suggest the labor market is holding steady.”

In other economic news Tuesday, the Commerce Department reported that new orders for manufactured goods fell more than expected in April. Orders fell 3.7% on the month, more than the 3.3% Dow Jones forecast and indicative of declining demand after swelling 3.4% in March as businesses sought to get ahead of President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

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