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Trump tariffs could reheat inflation if countries retaliate

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Neel Kashkari, President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, speaks at the Milken Conference 2024 Global Conference Sessions at The Beverly Hilton in Beverly Hills, California, U.S., May 7, 2024. 

David Swanson | Reuters

Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said Sunday that President-elect Donald Trump‘s tariff proposals could worsen long-term inflation if global trade partners were to strike back.

One-time tariffs, Kashkari said on CBS’ “Face the Nation,” “shouldn’t have an effect long run on inflation.”

“The challenge becomes, if there’s a tit for tat and it’s one country imposing tariffs and then responses and it’s escalating. That’s where it becomes more concerning, and, frankly, a lot more uncertain,” Kashkari said.

During his first term, Trump essentially sparked a trade war with China when he imposed a series of import taxes on Chinese goods, which triggered the country to retaliate with its own set of tariffs on the U.S.

One of Trump’s primary economic proposals for his second term is to impose universal tariffs on all imports from all countries — with a specifically targeted 60% rate on China.

Economists, Wall Street analysts and industry leaders have repeatedly expressed concerns over the inflationary impact of that hardline trade approach, especially since inflation has just begun to cool from its pandemic-era peaks.

“We’ve made a lot of progress in bringing inflation down,” Kashkari said. “I mean, I don’t want to declare victory yet. We need to finish the job, but we’re on a good path right now.”

The Fed on Thursday passed its second consecutive interest rate cut, continuing its effort to loosen monetary policy as inflation approaches the central bank’s 2% target. Kashkari said he expects another cut to come in December, but that will depend on “what the data looks like” at that time.

As for Trump’s other major policy proposals like a sweeping immigrant deportation plan, Kashkari noted that the inflation threat is still unclear and so the Fed is still taking a “wait and see” approach before adjusting its policy.

Trump and his backers like billionaire Tesla CEO Elon Musk have also been outspoken about their desire to give the president input on Fed policy decisions. The central bank views its political independence as a core feature that allows it to shape monetary policy exclusively based on the health of the U.S. economy, not election incentives.

But Kashkari said he is not concerned about politics permeating Fed decisions.

“I’m confident that we will continue to focus on our economic jobs,” he said. “That’s what should be dictating what we’re doing and that is what’s dictating what we’re doing.”

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China set to report retail sales and industrial production data for October

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Pictured here is a Shanghai development under construction on Nov. 4, 2024.

Cfoto | Future Publishing | Getty Images

BEIJING — China’s National Bureau of Statistics is scheduled Friday to release retail sales, industrial production and fixed-asset investment data for October.

Retail sales are expected to have picked up to 3.8% year-on-year growth, according to analysts polled by Reuters, after rising by 3.2% in September.

Industrial production was forecast to have risen by 5.6%, the poll showed, up from 5.4% the prior month.

Fixed-asset investment, reported on a year-to-date basis, was anticipated to post 3.5% growth from a year ago, up from the 3.4% pace in September, according to the poll.

Chinese authorities have ramped up stimulus announcements since late September, fueling a stock rally. The central bank has cut interest rates and extended existing real estate support.

On the fiscal front, the Ministry of Finance last week announced a five-year 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) program to address local government debt problems, and hinted more fiscal support could come next year.

China needs to be more 'heavy-handed' with real estate, risks remain high: Goldman Sachs

Manufacturing surveys indicated a pickup in activity last month, while exports surged at their fastest pace in more than a year.

Imports, however, fell as domestic demand remained soft. The core consumer price index that strips out more volatile food and energy prices rose by 0.2% in October from a year ago, modestly better than the 0.1% increase seen in September.

Beyond a trade-in program to encourage car and home appliance sales, Beijing’s stimulus measures have not targeted consumers directly.

China’s Golden Week holiday in early October affirmed a trend in more cautious consumer spending, but several consultants said that sales during the Singles Day shopping festival, which recently ended, had beat low expectations.

The country’s gross domestic product in the first three quarters of the year grew by 4.8%. The country has set a target of around 5% growth for the year.

This is a developing story. Please check back later for updates.

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Stocks making biggest moves after hours: DPZ, ULTA, AMAT, PLTR

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Powell says the Fed doesn’t need to be ‘in a hurry’ to reduce interest rates

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Jerome Powell: Fed doesn’t need to be ‘in a hurry’ to reduce interest rates

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Thursday that strong U.S. economic growth will allow policymakers to take their time in deciding how far and how fast to lower interest rates.

“The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates,” Powell said in remarks for a speech to business leaders in Dallas. “The strength we are currently seeing in the economy gives us the ability to approach our decisions carefully.”

(Watch Powell’s remarkets live here.)

In an upbeat assessment of current conditions, the central bank leader called domestic growth “by far the best of any major economy in the world.”

Specifically, he said the labor market is holding up well despite disappointing job growth in October largely that he attributed to storm damage in the Southeast and labor strikes. Nonfarm payrolls increased by just 12,000 for the period.

Powell noted that the unemployment rate has been rising but has flattened out in recent months and remains low by historical standards.

On the question of inflation, he cited progress that has been “broad based,” noting that Fed officials expect it to continue to drift back towards the central bank’s 2% goal. Inflation data this week, though, showed a slight uptick in both consumer and producer prices, with 12-month rates pulling further away from the Fed mandate.

Still, Powell said the two indexes are indicating inflation by the Fed’s preferred measure at 2.3% in October, or 2.8% excluding food and energy.

“Inflation is running much closer to our 2 percent longer-run goal, but it is not there yet. We are committed to finishing the job,” said Powell, who noted that getting there could be “on a sometimes-bumpy path.”

The remarks come a week after the Federal Open Market Committee lowered the central bank’s benchmark borrowing rate by a quarter percentage point, pushing it down into a range between 4.5%-4.75%. That followed a half-point cut in September.

Powell has called the moves a recalibration of monetary policy that no longer needs to be focused primarily on stomping out inflation and now has a balanced aim at sustaining the labor market as well. Markets largely expect the Fed to continue with another quarter-point cut in December and then a few more in 2025.

However, Powell was noncommittal when it came to providing his own forecast. The Fed is seeking to guide its key rate down to a neutral setting that neither boosts nor inhibits growth, but is not sure what the end point will be.

“We are confident that with an appropriate recalibration of our policy stance, strength in the economy and the labor market can be maintained, with inflation moving sustainably down to 2 percent,” he said. “We are moving policy over time to a more neutral setting. But the path for getting there is not preset.”

The Fed also has been allowing proceeds from its bond holdings to roll off its mammoth balance sheet each month. There have been no indications of when that process might end.

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