Finance
Trump is the most pro-stock market president in history, Wharton’s Jeremy Siegel
The stock market could enjoy a bigger boost from President-elect Donald Trump than any previous administration thanks to his pro-business policies, according to Jeremy Siegel, finance professor at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania.
“President-elect Trump is the most pro-stock market president we have had in our history,” Siegel said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” Monday. “He measured his success in his first term by how well the stock market did. You know, it seems to me very unlikely he’s going to implement policies that are going to be bad for the stock market.”
The market already reached new heights in reaction to Trump’s election win as investors bet that his promises of tax cuts and deregulation will propel growth and benefit risk assets.
The S&P 500 soared 4.66% last week for its best week since November 2023, trading above 6,000 for the first time ever. The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average also climbed above a new milestone of 44,000 post election.
S&P 500
Investments seen as the biggest beneficiaries under a Trump presidency exploded during the week.
Tesla, whose CEO Elon Musk is a prominent backer of Trump, saw shares skyrocket 29% to return to a $1 trillion market cap. Bank stocks such as JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo also had big rallies. Bitcoin continued to hit record highs as traders see looser regulations under Trump.
Siegel believes that Trump’s corporate tax cuts from his first term in 2017 are mostly likely to be extended.
“I think the extension of his 2017 tax cuts, looks pretty much like a slam dunk, but the expansion to all his other tax cuts is certainly going to be much more difficult,” Siegel said.
Still, the president-elect’s trade policy, including his vow to slap steep tariffs on trading partners, could hurt growth and inflame inflationary pressures at a time when the Federal Reserve has spent more than two years raising interest rates to bring down price increases.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Thursday that strong U.S. economic growth will allow policymakers to take their time in deciding how far and how fast to lower interest rates.
“The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates,” Powell said in remarks for a speech to business leaders in Dallas. “The strength we are currently seeing in the economy gives us the ability to approach our decisions carefully.”
(Watch Powell’s remarkets live here.)
In an upbeat assessment of current conditions, the central bank leader called domestic growth “by far the best of any major economy in the world.”
Specifically, he said the labor market is holding up well despite disappointing job growth in October largely that he attributed to storm damage in the Southeast and labor strikes. Nonfarm payrolls increased by just 12,000 for the period.
Powell noted that the unemployment rate has been rising but has flattened out in recent months and remains low by historical standards.
On the question of inflation, he cited progress that has been “broad based,” noting that Fed officials expect it to continue to drift back towards the central bank’s 2% goal. Inflation data this week, though, showed a slight uptick in both consumer and producer prices, with 12-month rates pulling further away from the Fed mandate.
Still, Powell said the two indexes are indicating inflation by the Fed’s preferred measure at 2.3% in October, or 2.8% excluding food and energy.
“Inflation is running much closer to our 2 percent longer-run goal, but it is not there yet. We are committed to finishing the job,” said Powell, who noted that getting there could be “on a sometimes-bumpy path.”
The remarks come a week after the Federal Open Market Committee lowered the central bank’s benchmark borrowing rate by a quarter percentage point, pushing it down into a range between 4.5%-4.75%. That followed a half-point cut in September.
Powell has called the moves a recalibration of monetary policy that no longer needs to be focused primarily on stomping out inflation and now has a balanced aim at sustaining the labor market as well. Markets largely expect the Fed to continue with another quarter-point cut in December and then a few more in 2025.
However, Powell was noncommittal when it came to providing his own forecast. The Fed is seeking to guide its key rate down to a neutral setting that neither boosts nor inhibits growth, but is not sure what the end point will be.
“We are confident that with an appropriate recalibration of our policy stance, strength in the economy and the labor market can be maintained, with inflation moving sustainably down to 2 percent,” he said. “We are moving policy over time to a more neutral setting. But the path for getting there is not preset.”
The Fed also has been allowing proceeds from its bond holdings to roll off its mammoth balance sheet each month. There have been no indications of when that process might end.
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