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Here’s the inflation breakdown for October 2024 — in one chart

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A customer walks by a display of fresh eggs at a grocery store on Sept. 25, 2024 in San Anselmo, California.

Justin Sullivan | Getty Images

Progress in the fight to tame pandemic-era inflation appears to have stalled out in October, despite lower prices at the gasoline pump and a moderation in other consumer staples such as groceries.

Meanwhile, economists think policies such as import tariffs floated by President-elect Donald Trump would likely — if enacted — exacerbate the inflation rate, which hasn’t yet declined to policymakers’ long-term target.

The consumer price index, a key inflation gauge, was up 2.6% in October versus a year ago — an increase from 2.4% in September, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday. The reading was in line with economists’ expectations.

While that October uptick may seem like a setback, consumers can take solace that broad price pressures are continuing to ease, economists and policymakers said.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday said economic data points to inflation “continuing to come down on a bumpy path.”

“One or two really good data months or bad data months aren’t going to really change the pattern at this point,” Powell said during a press conference.

Annual inflation rate hit 2.6% in October, meeting expectations

Stephen Brown, deputy chief North American economist at Capital Economics, echoed that sentiment: “The overall [inflation] trend is positive,” he said.

In fact, the pickup in the annual inflation rate is at least partly due to a statistical quirk: The monthly inflation rate in October 2023 was unusually low, making the October 2024 reading look relatively high by comparison, economists said.   

‘Lagged impacts’ create trouble spots

Inflation has pulled back significantly from its pandemic-era peak of 9.1% in June 2022.

However, there are still some trouble spots.

Auto insurance prices, for example, are up 14% since October 2023, according to CPI data.

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Vehicle insurance premiums face “upward pressure” largely due to a lag effect from earlier inflationary dynamics, Brown said.

For example, new and used vehicle prices began to surge in 2021 amid a shortage of semiconductor chips used to manufacture cars; because of that sticker shock, insurers’ cost to replace vehicles after a car accident is much higher, Brown said. Insurers also typically need approval from regulators to raise consumer premiums, a process that takes time, he said.

“Lagged impacts” are affecting other categories, too, making for overall slow progress on reining in inflation, Brown said.

Housing is the ‘major impediment’

Homes in Discovery Bay, California.

David Paul Morri | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Housing, the largest CPI category, is a key example of that lag.

Shelter inflation has throttled back painfully slowly, even as inflation in the national rental market has declined considerably, economists said.

“Market rents, newly signed leases, are experiencing very low inflation,” Powell said during the press conference.

Shelter inflation has taken a long time to adjust to that housing backdrop due to how federal statisticians compile the CPI index. In short, its slow adjustment up or down is by design.

“So that’s just a catch-up problem,” Powell said. “It’s not really reflecting current inflationary pressures.”

CPI shelter inflation heated up on a monthly basis in October, rising to 0.4% from 0.2% in September. Its annual inflation rate has declined to less than 5% from a peak of more than 8% in early 2023.

Shelter is “the continued major impediment to getting inflation all the way back,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s.

The Federal Reserve has a long-term annual inflation target of around 2%.

Where consumers saw some relief in October

Brandon Bell | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Consumers saw some relief at the grocery store and at the gas pump in October.

Inflation for groceries cooled on a monthly basis, to 0.1% from September to October, down from 0.4% the prior month. Grocery prices are up about 1% since October 2023.

They’re “very, very tame,” Zandi said.

That’s despite various supply-and-demand idiosyncrasies that are raising prices for certain food items, he said. For example, avian flu, which is lethal for chickens and other birds, has negatively affected egg supply and led prices to swell 30% in the past year; similarly, a poor orange crop has pushed up orange prices 7% annually.

The price for a gallon of gasoline fell 1% during the month, according to CPI data. Prices are down more than 12% in the past year.

“Gasoline prices are way down,” Zandi said. Average prices could fall further, to below $3 a gallon, he said. They were at $3.05 a gallon, on average, as of Nov. 11, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

“We could get more relief there because global oil prices are soft,” Zandi said.

That weakness may be in anticipation of President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed policies around China, said Zandi. Those may include tariffs of at least 60% on goods imported from China, which has a huge appetite for oil. If Trump’s policies were to negatively affect the Chinese economy, they’d also likely dampen China’s oil demand.

Trump policies thought to be inflationary

Trump has proposed broader tariffs, of perhaps 10% or 20% on all goods imported to the U.S. Additionally, he has announced plans to deport millions of undocumented immigrants and enact a package of tax cuts.

If put in place, such policies would likely stoke U.S. inflation, economists said.

“While we believe that inflation remains on a disinflationary trajectory, we now see the risks as clearly tilted to the upside,” Bank of America economists wrote in a note Monday. “These risks stem from potential policy changes rather than economic fundamentals.”

Placing an import tax on goods would likely lead U.S. companies to raise prices for those goods, for example, economists said. Fewer immigrants in the labor pool may push businesses to raise wages to attract applicants and retain workers, while tax cuts could put more money in consumers’ pockets and boost their spending.

“Indeed, we see pro-growth fiscal policy, tariffs, and tighter immigration as potential sources of upside inflation risk over the coming years if they are implemented,” Bank of America economists wrote.

The annual inflation would likely be around 2.1% by the end of 2025 absent Trump’s policies, said Brown of Capital Economics. If enacted, that figure would likely be around 3%, he said, as a “ballpark estimate.”

“The return of inflation to the 2% target may prove short-lived,” Brown wrote in a research note Wednesday.

However, much depends on how, when and if those policies are enacted, economists said.

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Personal Finance

Social Security to send notices revealing size of 2025 benefit checks

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A new 2.5% cost-of-living adjustment

In 2025, retirement benefits will increase by about $50 per month, on average, according to the Social Security Administration.

That’s as all beneficiaries will see a 2.5% benefit increase due to the annual cost-of-living adjustment.

Notably, the benefit boost for 2025 will be the lowest since 2021. As the pace of inflation has subsided, the cost-of-living adjustment has come down with it, since the Social Security Administration uses government inflation data to calculate the annual change.

Beneficiaries saw the highest increases in four decades in 2023, when the COLA was 8.7%, and in 2022, when benefits went up by 5.9%. However, the annual COLA started to come down in 2024, with a 3.2% annual adjustment.

“Although price increases have moderated, it’s not as though inflation is over,” said Joe Elsasser, a certified financial planner and president of Covisum, a Social Security claiming software company.  

If the pace of inflation picks up again, the annual COLA could go up again, he said.

Monthly Medicare Part B premiums to go up

Income changes may prompt higher taxes

Social Security beneficiaries may request to have withholding for federal taxes from their benefit payments.

Beneficiaries may want to consider whether they want to adjust those withholdings, particularly if they anticipate more of their benefits could be taxed, according to Jim Blair, vice president of Premier Social Security Consulting.

Social Security benefits are taxed on a formula called combined income — the sum of adjusted gross income, nontaxable interest and half of Social Security benefits. Beneficiaries may pay no taxes on their benefits, if their combined income is low enough, or up to 50% or 85% of their benefits may be subject to federal taxes if their combined incomes are above certain thresholds.

“What we’ve seen with clients is kind of a surge in other income that has caused more of their Social Security to be taxed,” said CFP Brian Vosberg, president of Vosberg Wealth Management in Glendora, California.

Maximizing your Social Security benefits

For example, retirees who have $200,000 in money market accounts or certificates of deposit are seeing higher interest payments on that sum after the Federal Reserve’s string of rate hikes in recent years. That interest income may require beneficiaries to pay a higher federal tax rate on their benefits, Vosberg said.

Proactive tax planning can help alleviate that situation, Vosberg said. Strategies such as buying an annuity that lets that interest grow tax deferred or reducing income from other areas, such as IRA withdrawals, can help minimize the tax bite, he said.

Retirees should also take note if their incomes have meaningfully changed in the past couple of years, according to Blair. If that’s the case, their monthly Medicare Part B premium rate may no longer be accurate. Beneficiaries can notify the Social Security Administration of life-changing events that affect their incomes and Medicare premiums by filling out a Form SSA-44.  

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Personal Finance

Thanksgiving meals may be cheaper in 2024 as turkey prices drop

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Filadendron | E+ | Getty Images

Thanksgiving is a time to gather with loved ones, to show gratitude for life’s abundance — and, of course, to eat.

And when it comes to Thanksgiving food, it seems Americans are getting relief on their grocery bills this year following a few years of escalating costs.

A “classic” Thanksgiving feast for a party of 10 will cost $58.08 in 2024, on average — down 5% from 2023 and down 9% from 2022, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation, a trade group for farmers and ranchers.

Its analysis includes turkey, cubed stuffing, sweet potatoes, dinner rolls, frozen peas, fresh cranberries, celery, carrots, pumpkin pie mix and crusts, whipping cream and whole milk.

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Prices for this food basket were at a record high in 2022, at $64.05, the Farm Bureau said.

Households that add ham, russet potatoes and frozen green beans into the mix would pay $77.34 in 2024, on average — an 8% decrease from 2023, the Farm Bureau said.

The annual decline in prices will be welcome news to many households: Nearly half, 44%, of people hosting Thanksgiving this year are concerned about the cost of the event, according to a recent Deloitte survey.

The decrease is largely due to various supply-and-demand dynamics driving down prices for key staples — turkey, most importantly — and an overarching decline in U.S. food inflation, according to economists.

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“Food inflation has been pretty tame,” said Robin Wenzel, head of the Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute. “You’re seeing some good relief there.”

That said, a classic Thanksgiving meal is still 19% pricier than it was in 2019, according to the Farm Bureau.

“Declines don’t really erase the dramatic increases we had,” said Bernt Nelson, a Farm Bureau economist.

Turkey has been a ‘curious item’

Monty Rakusen | Digitalvision | Getty Images

Largely, that’s because of the impact of bird flu, a lethal and contagious disease among birds that has contributed to the deaths of about 14 million turkeys since 2022, he said.

Lower supply would tend to raise prices, all else equal. But consumer demand has decreased as well. To that point, turkey consumption per capita has fallen by about one pound this year, he said.

The aggregate impact has been lower turkey prices.

Weather and labor impacts

Meanwhile, prices fell notably — by 14% — for whole milk, a staple ingredient in pie and other recipes, Nelson said.

That’s largely attributable to “favorable” weather conditions in the U.S. for dairy cattle — both in terms of their overall wellbeing and for crops they eat — thereby helping boost milk production, Nelson said.

Of course, not everything is cheaper.

Prices for processed products like dinner rolls and cubed stuffing increased more than 8% from 2023, for example, the Farm Bureau said. That’s primarily attributable to non-food-related inflation such as labor costs, pushing up prices “for partners across the food supply chain,” the group said in its analysis.

Food inflation has been pretty tame. You’re seeing some good relief there.

Robin Wenzel

Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute

Aside from labor costs, there were many contributors to fast-rising grocery prices during the pandemic era.

For example, in 2022, food prices grew faster than any year since 1979, partly due to a bird-flu outbreak that affected egg and poultry prices, while Russia’s invasion of Ukraine “compounded other economy-wide inflationary pressures such as high energy costs,” according to the USDA.

Higher costs for energy such as gasoline and diesel fuel translate into higher prices across the food supply chain, such as to distribute groceries to store shelves, experts said.

“Food price growth slowed in 2023 as wholesale food prices and these other inflationary factors eased from 2022,” the USDA said, and it has declined further in 2024.

How to trim Thanksgiving costs

Consumers often pay a premium for name-brand items, but that’s not true in all cases this year.

For example, name-brand cranberries are cheaper than the store brand, on average, Wenzel said.

“When shopping this year, it really comes back to doing a little bit of research,” Wenzel said.     

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Personal Finance

Could Trump reinstate forgiven student debt? Here’s what experts say

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Mementojpeg | Moment | Getty Images

Since President Joe Biden took office, the Education Department has canceled the federal student loans of nearly 5 million people, totaling $175 billion in relief, according to the White House.

It has done so mostly by improving existing student loan relief programs that had long been plagued by problems, including the Public Service Loan Forgiveness initiative and income-driven repayment plans.

Those borrowers should be in the clear, experts say.

“Any regulatory changes must be prospective only,” meaning that eliminations to loan forgiveness programs would only impact new borrowers, explained Betsy Mayotte, president of The Institute of Student Loan Advisors, a nonprofit that helps borrowers navigate the repayment of their debt.

“They aren’t allowed to change regulations retroactively,” she added.

For that reason, even borrowers who have been pursuing forgiveness under an income-driven repayment plan or a program like PSLF, but have not yet received that relief, may be safe.

The terms of a loan, which are spelled out in the Master Promissory Note federal student loan borrowers sign when they take out the debt, can’t be change in the middle of repayment, experts said.

In June, U.S. District Judge Daniel Crabtree in Wichita, Kansas, described student loan forgiveness as having an “irreversible impact,” in his decision to block one of the Biden administration’s relief measures.

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The retraction of student loan forgiveness is incredibly rare, Kantrowitz writes in a recent article in The College Investor.

For example, in February, some borrowers saw their debts reinstated under the Public Service Loan Forgiveness program. Yet that only occurred because the debt cancellation was granted through an error, and the borrowers were not yet eligible for the relief.

“Don’t worry,” Kantrowitz said. “The president does not have the legal authority to reinstate forgiven loans.”

Still, borrowers should keep a record of the notices they’ve received about their forgiven debt, and any loan documents showing a $0 balance, Kantrowitz said.

In a new report, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau cites, among the errors reported by student loan borrowers, “balance reinstatements,” in which a loan servicer tacks a loan balance back on to one’s account.

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