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A controversial idea to hand even more power to the president

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LEADING THE Office of Management and Budget (OMB) may sound mundane, but the role is one of Washington’s most important. Russell Vought, who did the job for the final two years of Donald Trump’s first term, is poised to return. After a confirmation vote planned for the coming days, he is expected to test the bounds of presidential power as the new administration tries to reshape the federal government.

In his confirmation hearing on January 15th, Mr Vought told senators he would follow through on Mr Trump’s vow to pursue “impoundment”. This is the practice of presidents refusing to spend funds that Congress has appropriated, shifting power to the White House. To take a current example, Mr Trump has issued an executive order putting an “immediate pause” on billions of dollars appropriated under the Inflation Reduction Act of 2021 and a climate law from 2022. No money will go out for current projects—including new roads, bridges and electric-vehicle charging stations—until the administration decides which efforts are “consistent with any review recommendations” Trump officials “have chosen to adopt”. The same applies to military aid for Ukraine.

Mr Trump ran “on the issue of impoundment”, Mr Vought said at his hearing, and “200 years of presidents have used this authority”. He said the Impoundment Control Act (ICA) of 1974, passed to rein in presidents after Richard Nixon held back billions of dollars for education, the armed forces and the environment, was unconstitutional. (It is one of several Watergate-era constraints on the presidency that Mr Trump wants to be rid of.) His inner circle is speaking as one on the matter. In an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal after the election, Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy wrote that Mr Trump could cut federal spending “through executive action alone”.

During Mr Trump’s first term Mr Vought participated in the freezing of $214m in military aid for Ukraine—an impoundment that led to Mr Trump’s first impeachment in 2019. In his hearing this month, Mr Vought noted the funds were eventually released after a “policy process” carried out by the administration. He repeated that phrase (a justification for blocking funds deemed incompatible with a president’s policies) five times during his two-hour appearance before the committee.

Mr Vought’s colleagues at his think-tank, the Centre for Renewing America, made the constitutional and historical case for impoundment in a pair of blog posts and a white paper last year. The primary author, Mark Paoletta, was the top lawyer at the OMB in Mr Trump’s first term and has been tapped for that post again. Impoundment is a “key tool”, Mr Paoletta writes, “to ensure that the constellation of congressional funding measures are implemented in a lawful and reasonable manner that ensures good governance”. The authority flows, he argues, from several corners of the constitution, including a clause in Article II requiring presidents to “take care that the laws be faithfully executed”. “[I]f an appropriation violates the constitution”, Mr Paoletta declares, “the president may impound it.”

Presidents have been impounding for centuries, says Mr Paoletta. In 1803, Thomas Jefferson opted not to spend $50,000 Congress pegged for gunboats on the Mississippi. Franklin Roosevelt impounded extensively during the Depression and the second world war. Harry Truman delayed spending funds meant for veterans’ hospitals. John Kennedy impounded nearly half of the $380m Congress appropriated for the B-70 strategic bomber. In sum, Mr Paoletta claims, “Congress’s power of the purse” has always been intended to establish a “ceiling” for executive spending, never a “floor”.

Zachary Price, a law professor at the University of California at San Francisco, counters that “the president has no constitutional power of impoundment”. Jefferson’s unbought gunboats had been funded by a law that “authorised expenditure without requiring it”, Mr Price points out. In the words of the statute, the president could buy “a number not exceeding fifteen gun boats” using “a sum not exceeding fifty thousand dollars”. This built-in discretion was common in statutes for decades. And even when the language grew less flexible, Mr Price explains, Congress usually allocated funds in a “permissive rather than mandatory” way. Until Nixon, impoundments “did not involve any assertion of constitutional authority to act contrary to congressional directives”.

The ICA made this norm binding. When a president wishes to delay an expenditure he must send a special note informing Congress and must spend the money by the end of the fiscal year. He cannot cancel a payment outright without Congress’s explicit approval. Eloise Pasachoff, a law professor at Georgetown, sees little basis for challenging the constitutionality of the ICA. In 1998, the Supreme Court struck down the line-item veto—impoundment by another name—because it permitted presidents to usurp Congress’s authority. Even the archconservative Justice Antonin Scalia, Ms Pasachoff points out, “literally rejects impoundment theory” in his separate opinion in that case.

Some members of Congress favour repealing the ICA. Mike Lee, a senator from Utah, derides the act as a “Watergate-era relic” and in December introduced legislation to do away with it. But there are not enough votes to pass such a law. That leaves the courts as the best avenue for Mr Vought and Co to get their way.

Who might fight back in court? Not disgruntled lawmakers, as individual members of Congress do not have standing to sue. Ms Pasachoff says there are plenty of potential plaintiffs: states, cities and defence contractors, for example. Any actual or potential recipients of funds competing for contracts or applying for grants—in fields like information technology or construction—could get to court by showing the president’s tight-fistedness harmed them. But establishing “standing” (the right to bring a claim in court) may not be so easy, Matt Lawrence of Emory University says, as there are “significant barriers to judicial review of spending decisions”.

Economics

The low-end consumer is about to feel the pinch as Trump restarts student loan collections

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Andersen Ross Photography Inc | Digitalvision | Getty Images

Wall Street is warning that the U.S. Department of Education’s crack down on student loan repayments may take billions of dollars out of consumers’ pockets and hit low income Americans particularly hard.

The department has restarted collections on defaulted student loans under President Donald Trump this month. For first time in around five years, borrowers who haven’t kept up with their bills could see their wages taken or face other punishments.

Using a range of interest rates and lengths of repayment plans, JPMorgan estimated that disposable personal income could be collectively cut by between $3.1 billion and $8.5 billion every month due to collections, according to Murat Tasci, senior U.S. economist at the bank and a Cleveland Federal Reserve alum.

If that all surfaced in one quarter, collections on defaulted and seriously delinquent loans alone would slash between 0.7% and 1.8% from disposable personal income year-over-year, he said.

This policy change may strain consumers who are already stressed out by Trump’s tariff plan and high prices from years of runaway inflation. These factors can help explain why closely followed consumer sentiment data compiled by the University of Michigan has been hitting some of its lowest levels in its seven-decade history in the past two months.

“You have a number of these pressure points rising,” said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial. “Perhaps in aggregate, it’s enough to quash some of these spending numbers.”

Bank of America said this push to collect could particularly weigh on groups that are on more precarious financial footing. “We believe resumption of student loan payments will have knock-on effects on broader consumer finances, most especially for the subprime consumer segment,” Bank of America analyst Mihir Bhatia wrote to clients.

Economic impact

Student loans account for just 9% of all outstanding consumer debt, according to Bank of America. But when excluding mortgages, that share shoots up to 30%.

Total outstanding student loan debt sat at $1.6 trillion at the end of March, an increase of half a trillion dollars in the last decade.

The New York Fed estimates that nearly one of every four borrowers required to make payments are currently behind. When the federal government began reporting loans as delinquent in the first quarter of this year, the share of debt holders in this boat jumped up to 8% from around 0.5% in the prior three-month period.

To be sure, delinquency is not the same thing as default. Delinquency refers to any loan with a past-due payment, while defaulting is more specific and tied to not making a delayed payment with a period of time set by the provider. The latter is considered more serious and carries consequences such as wage garnishment. If seriously delinquent borrowers also defaulted, JPMorgan projected that almost 25% of all student loans would be in the latter category.

JPMorgan’s Tasci pointed out that not all borrowers have wages or Social Security earnings to take, which can mitigate the firm’s total estimates. Some borrowers may resume payments with collections beginning, though Tasci noted that would likely also eat into discretionary spending.

Trump’s promise to reduce taxes on overtime and tips, if successful, could also help erase some effects of wage garnishment on poorer Americans.

Still, the expected hit to discretionary income is worrisome as Wall Street wonders if the economy can skirt a recession. Much hope has been placed on the ability of consumers to keep spending even if higher tariffs push product prices higher or if the labor market weakens.

LPL’s Roach sees this as less of an issue. He said the postpandemic economy has largely been propped up by high-income earners, who have done the bulk of the spending. This means the tide-change for student loan holders may not hurt the macroeconomic picture too much, he said.

“It’s hard to say if there’s a consensus view on this yet,” Roach said. “But I would say the student loan story is not as important as perhaps some of the other stories, just because those who hold student loans are not necessarily the drivers of the overall economy.”

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Consumer sentiment falls in May as Americans’ inflation expectations jump after tariffs

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A woman walks in an aisle of a Walmart supermarket in Houston, Texas, on May 15, 2025.

Ronaldo Schemidt | Afp | Getty Images

U.S. consumers are becoming increasingly worried that tariffs will lead to higher inflation, according to a University of Michigan survey released Friday.

The index of consumer sentiment dropped to 50.8, down from 52.2 in April, in the preliminary reading for May. That is the second-lowest reading on record, behind June 2022.

The outlook for price changes also moved in the wrong direction. Year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 7.3% from 6.5% last month, while long-term inflation expectations ticked up to 4.6% from 4.4%.

However, the majority of the survey was completed before the U.S. and China announced a 90-day pause on most tariffs between the two countries. The trade situation appears to be a key factor weighing on consumer sentiment.

“Tariffs were spontaneously mentioned by nearly three-quarters of consumers, up from almost 60% in April; uncertainty over trade policy continues to dominate consumers’ thinking about the economy,” Surveys of Consumers director Joanne Hsu said in the release.

Inflation expectations are closely watched by investors and policymakers. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has said the central bank wants to make sure long-term inflation expectations do not rise because of tariffs before resuming rate cuts.

A final consumer sentiment index for the month is slated to be released on May 30, and will likely be closely watched to see if the tariff pause led to an improvement in sentiment.

This is breaking news. Please refresh for updates.

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JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon says recession is still on the table for U.S.

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Jamie Dimon, chief executive officer of JPMorgan Chase & Co., speaks during the 2025 National Retirement Summit in Washington, DC, US, on Wednesday, March 12, 2025.

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Wall Street titan Jamie Dimon said Thursday that a recession is still a serious possibility for the United States, even after the recent rollback of tariffs on China.

“If there’s a recession, I don’t know how big it will be or how long it will last. Hopefully we’ll avoid it, but I wouldn’t take it off the table at this point,” the JPMorgan Chase CEO said in an interview with Bloomberg Television.

Specifically, Dimon said he would defer to his bank’s economists, who put recession odds at close to a toss-up. Michael Feroli, the firm’s chief U.S. economist, said in a note to clients on Tuesday that the recession outlook is “still elevated, but now below 50%.”

Dimon’s comments come less than a week after the U.S. and China announced that they were sharply reducing tariffs on one another for 90 days. The U.S. has also implemented a 90-day pause for many tariffs on other nations.

Thursday’s comments mark a change for Dimon, who said last month before the China truce that a recession was likely.

He also said there is still “uncertainty” on the tariff front but the pauses are a positive for the economy and market.

“I think the right thing to do is to back off some of that stuff and engage in conversation,” Dimon said.

However, even with the tariff pauses, the import taxes on goods entering the United States are now sharply higher than they were last year and could cause economic damage, according to Dimon.

“Even at this level, you see people holding back on investment and thinking through what they want to do,” Dimon said.

— CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed reporting.

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